moonslav59

I'd say it looks pretty good, that without even having a draft yet, he has 2 of the top 4 and 3 of the top 7 sox pitching prospects as his. Granted, we inherited crap.

Bang the drum, LOUDLY!

soxprospects slotted Sandlin at #13- right behind Fitts and Zanetello and in front of Meidroth and Castro. Already, Brez has added these pitching prospects to the roster. (Campbell & Weissert have graduated, recently.) Brez in RED 7. Perales 9. Wikelman 11. Fitts 13. Sandlin 21. Monegro 24. Dobbins 25. Slaten ... 59. Judice

Truth. These guys need to gang up on Henry & Co. Be vocal. Make the FO believe the fans will not tolerate this crap, any longer.

We need some good news.

The talk from ex-players who starred for the Sox might be helpful, too. The more the drum beats, the better chance they wake the F up.

Unless some OF'er gets hurt, it looks like Rafaela starts in AAA. That would allow Ref to keep his bench role and plus bat vs LHPs on the bench. I guess, there is a chance Rafaela beats out Abreu, this spring, and Wilyer starts in AAA. There are no playtime issues with one fo the kids in AAA. There are issues with who plays CF, since nobody is a plus on D, there, but using Duran and Abreu in CF would not be the end of the world.

Having 13 pitchers on the staff has changed things.... Most IP from the pen in 2023: 84.1 Gird & Holton 83.1 Wink 4th most since 2019 20 pitchers over 70 IP 53 over 65 IP 83 over 60 IP From 2010-2018 118.2 Yarbrough '18 96 Swarzak '13 95 Chavez '16 11 pitchers over 90 49 over 80265 over 70 762 over 60 2000-2009 6 over 100 38 over 90 173 over 80 508 over 70 929 over 60 90-99 34 over 100 102 over 90 254 over 80 490 over 70 785 over 60 80-89 (Bob Stanley pitched 168.1 IP as a RP'er in '82) 32 pitched over 120 IP! 143 over 100 274 over 90 421 over 80 591 over 70 763 over 60 70-79 (Mike Marshall pitched 208 and 179 IP from the pen) 20 pitchers over 140! 158 over 100 258 over 90 373 over 80 518 over 70 662 over 60 We hear a lot about SP'er IP going way down- so have RP'er IP.

Do you think he'd be better used in 50-55 games for 1 IP (maybe 4-6 outs, rarely) of 40 games at 2 IP (with 7-9 outs, rarely?)

I think Duran has real potential to be the player we saw for half a season, last year. He's not the same kid we saw 2+ years ago. He is hard to project, as he has changed and re-tooled his game a few times already. His 5 years of control at reasonable rates seem to make him a lock as a keeper, but his CF D is not up to par, and the glut of LF'ers on this team seems to grow, every year. I do wonder what has been floated as returns for him, or what we might get by adding another piece, like Houck, Pivetta or even a high prospect like Mayer, not that we'd trade Mayer. I'm fine with keeping Duran. There is a good chance one from Abreu and Rafaela don't earn a FT role. There is a lesser chance neither do. Anthony offers some hope for the future, and Bleis for the extended future, but how long must we wait? How Soon Is Now?

True, but this would be possible templates. Less time for O'Neill and more for Rafaela & Abreu is an easy choice, unless one or both are stinking up the place. (This might be why we are keeping Refsnyder around and are reluctant to trade Duran.)

Agreed.

Even if we trade Refsnyder, I can't see how Abreu and Rafaela get enough PAs to be on the 26, all year, if everyone is healthy. O"Neill is not a platoon player. Duran could be a platoon, but I think he earned a shot to play vs LHPs for a while- just to see if 2023 was a fluke. Let's assume no Ref and no platoon of Duran: LF: Duran 82 O'Neill 80 CF Rafaela 92 Duran 70 RF Abreu 92 O'Neill 70 92 games is about 3 out of 5. Rafaela & Abreu need to play 9 out of 10, somewhere. Let's say we platoon Duran and no Ref: LF: Duran 120 v RHP O'Neill 42 v LHPs CF Rafaela 107 Abreu 55 RF O'Neill 110 v RHPs Abreu 52 v LHPs and some RHPs This way, Rafaela and Abreu get 107 GS, each and maybe some late inning defense and PR chances. I'd say, that is still not enough. This is why some think trading Duran for a SP'er makes sense, but if Rafaela or Abreu flame out, and Duran looks good, we'd never hear the end of it... well, maybe an Anthony call- up might make people forget Duran.

I'm not expert on O'Neill or Abreu's defense, but I'm leaning towards O'Neill in LF (maybe RF in Yankee Stadium) and Abreu in RF. Where does Duran fit in? (Traded?) Refsnyder? (Traded?) Here could be how it shakes out, if we try hard to not play Duran in CF: LF: 107 gms Duran 50 gms O'Neill 5 gms Yoshida CF: 102 gms Rafaela 60 gms Abreu RF: 82 gms Abreu 80 gms O'Neill The way this shakes out, Abreu plays the most, but I think Duran will, barring injury. I think Cora does this: LF 87 O'Neill 70 Duran 5 Yoshida CF 82 Duran 80 Rafaela (plays some SS & 2B) RF 100 Abreu 62 O'Neill Total in OF 152 Duran 149 O'Neill 100 Abreu 80 Rafaela 5 Yoshida

It's hard to know. That is probably easier than 28 GS. Maybe he pitches 40 games, going 2 IP, maybe 3 every now and then, for 90 IP, total.

Duvall broke his wrist APR 9. Duran's first game in APR was the 17th, so yes. When Duvall returned in early June, he played mostly CF and some RF.

There is not an easy way to show who replaces who, since some is based on more projected PAs from players that were on the 2023 team, and some position swaps will occur, most notably, Yoshida will DH more, but his PAs are not really replacing Turner's. It will be whoever plays LF in his place. Here are the PAs lost (GS Position) 626 Turner (98 DH, 35 1B, 7 3B, 4 2B) Yoshida started 49 at DH. For argument's sake, let's say Yoshida plays all Turner's games at DH, so OF'ers will replace those PAs by Turner. Who plays 3B and 1B as a back-up is unknown.) 602 Dugo (140 RF): We do not know who will play RF, but it looks like Abreu & O'Neill might combine for 602 PAs in RF. 353 Duvall (61 CF, 20 RF, 3 LF, 3 DH)- looks like Duran can add some PAs and Rafaela will get the rest in CF. 323 Kike (64 SS, 14 2B. 14 CF)- Looks like Story, Grissom and Reyes will add at least the 750 PAs of these 4 guys. 206 Arroyo (51 2B) 112 Chang (30 SS, 2 2B) 109 Urias (24 2B, 4 3B) 97 Tapia (9LF, 5 RF, 4 CF)- more PAs from Refsnyder, Rafaela and Abreu. another 100 or so with odds and ends- who knows? It's about 2500 total PAs lost- not all by plus batters. (Note: Dugo had a 100 OPS+) My guess: +550 Grissom +450 Story (to 618) +450 O'Neill (could be 550) +400 Rafaela (to 489) +400 Abreu (to 485) +200 Duran (to 562) +50 Casas (to 552) Of course, people will get hurt. We may see Dalbec, DHam and guys like Reyes get a lot more PAs than 2023. I do think we should be okay. I think posters are only looking at the top 3 players lost and are maybe remembering Dugo as some sort of plus bat. He wasn't in 2023. Kike had 20 fewer PAs than Duvall, but only replacing Duval is mentioned. Kike had a 62 OPS+, which is horrific and should be easy to improve upon by Story, Reyes, and Grissom. Same with... Arroyo's 206 PAs and 70 OPS+. Chang's 112 PAs and 45 OPS+. Urias 109 PAs and 91 OPS+. Tapia's 97 PAs and 90 OPS+ Kike and these other 4 players, alone, combined for 750 PAs, which is more than Turner or Dugo. Our offense should be fine, assuming the norm on injuries. We have some unknowns, like Grissom, Abreu and Rafaela and the injury-prone O'Neill, but it's not like we had perfect health, last year.

He played mostly CF after starting with the big club in mid April. He was pretty close to FT from his first game of 2023 in MLB to his IL stint in AUG to the end of the year. Duran played in 102 games from team game 17 to 124, so basically 102 out of 118, which is about 6-8 games from FT as Cora allows.

I think the idea is Duran ploays FT and stay healthy, but yes, that might ony cover half of Turner's missing PAs. The other half? Maybe O'Neill can get much more PAs than Duvall had, and fill most of the gap. The rest has to come from more PAs by Story, Rafaela & Abreu.

I like soxprospects.com and think they do a fine job covering the farm. Here is a look back at how good and bad some of their rankings have been. I'm looking at only top 5's by 3 year intervals: Highest ranking lister per player 2003-2005: 1. Lester, HRam, Youk, Papelbon, F Sanchez, J de la Rosa 2. B Moss 3. Pedroia, A Sanchez, K ShoppachA Alvarez 4. (none) 5. C Hansen, C Span, P Dumatrait 2006-2008: 1. Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholtz, Masterson, L Anderson 2. C Hansen, M Bowden 3. J Lowrie, J Reddick 4. M Almanzar 5. B Moss, M Delcarmen, C Kelly, B Cox 2009-2011 1. C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, W Middlebrooks 2. J Reddick, A Ranaudo, L Anderson, M Bowden 3. A Rizzo, F Doubront 4. Bogaerts, D Bard, L Anderson, R Westmoreland, D Britton 5. J Iglesias, J Tazawa, Y Navarro, S Pimental 2012-2014 1. Betts, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Swihart 2. JBJ, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens 3. Margot, Webster, Cecchini 4. Devers, Iglesias 5. ERod, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz 2015-2017: 1. Devers, ERod, Moncada, Swihart, Groome 2. Beni, Chavis 3. Mata, Espinoza, Owens, S Travis 4. Houck, Margot 5. Dalbec, Kopech, B Johnson, D Flores 2018-2020 1. Casas, Groome, Chavis 2. Mata, Downs, Dalbec, DHern 3. Duran, Houck 4. Song, Jimenez 5. S Travis 2021-2023 1. Casas, Mayer, Anthony 2. Downs, Bleis 3. Bello, Duran, Yorke, Rafaela, Teel 4. Whitlock 5. Houck, Walter, Mata 2003-2023 (21 years fo soxprospects.com) 1. Betts, Lester, Devers, Bogaerts, Papelbon, HRam, Youk, Erod, Casas Anthony, Mayer, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Moncada, Masterson, J de la Rosa, W Middlebrooks Swihart, C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, Groome, Chavis 2. JBJ, Barnes, J Reddick, B Moss, Beni Mata, Bleis, C Hansen, Dalbec, DHern M Bowden, A Ranaudo, Owens, Downs 3. Pedroia, Rizzo, A Sanchez, Doubront, Duran, Houck Margot, K Shoppach, J Lowrie, Rafaela, Yorke, Teel Espinoza. A Alvarez, Webster, Cecchini, S Travis 4. Whitlock, D Bard, J Iglesias N Song, M Almanzar, Westmoreland, D Britton, Jimenez 5. J Tazawa M DelCarmen, B Johnson, Walter C Span, P Dumatrait, B Cox, Y Navarro, S Pimental, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz, D Florez

Various fWAR projections for our rotation: The BAT 2.2 Pivetta 2.1 Bello 2.1 Giolito 1.9 Crawford 1.8 Houck ATC 2.2 Bello 2.1 Pivetta 2.1 Giolito 1.7 Crawford 1.6 Houck Steamer 2.5 Bello 2.3 Giolito 2.0 Pivetta 1.8 Houck 1.7 Crawford ZIPS 2.5 Giolito 2.3 Bello 1.6 Crawford 1.3 Pivetta 1.2 Houck Average: 2.2 Bello 2.2 Giolito 1.9 Pivetta 1.7 Crawford 1.6 Houck Highest: 2.5 Bello 2.5 Giolito 2.2 Pivetta 1.9 Crawford 1.8 Houck

He will be 37, by then, so 3 years might be unlikely, but yes, I doubt he's here year 3.

True. It would take both sides thinking he's worth about $12M for it to be accepted by both sides. Even then, Liam might want to seek a longer deal, at his age. The Sox might think he's worth $12M, but may still be on the cheap. or want to spend that money elsewhere.

Good for him.

He may out hit the 2024 Turner.