moonslav59

I'd guess Priester > all those traded combined.

As bad as we all thought the staff would be, nobody thought 6.10 bad. I do not project we finish the season with a 6.10 ERA. 5.10, maybe, and that would probably leave us out of the dance. 4.60 seems possible and might be enough to squeak us in, assuming our O keeps going strong. I'm not sure this staff is capable of pitching 4.10 or better, over the last 7 weeks, but we do have some new additions and returning IL players on or about to be on the 13 man staff. Houck, Jansen and Wink are showing signs of doing better. It's not impossible to imagine a staff that can finish somewhere between 4.10 and 4.60. Maybe not probable, I agree, but certainly not out of the question. Nobody expected the staff to be under 3.00 in April, either. Weird things happen in baseball, all the time.

I'm not sure we turn it around or not. My "optimism" is based more on looking around and seeing how badly everyone else is playing, too, than any evidence that the Sox might be capable of doing better. If we everyone keeps playing like they did from June 30th to today, we're in. I'm just surprised you think it's delusional to think we can do it.

1. Duran .860 (.933 v R) 1.091 last 4 weeks 2. Abreu .843 (.900 v R) .983 last 4 weeks 3. Yoshida .754 (.810 v R) .847 4. Devers .976 (1.112 v R) 1.072 5. Jansen .703 (1.000 v R w Sox) 1.143 6. Smith .714 (.715 v R) .891 7. Sogard .787 (1.000 v R) .787 8. Rafaela .708 (.706 v R) .716 9. DHam .712 (.734 v R) .646

The Sox are not alone in the philosophy, so in many ways, the whole league watches and waits. I like our pitching in the lower levels, but I realize I'm a homer on our prospects.

Best AL records since June 30th: 19-13 MIN 19-14 HOU 18-14 BOS, OAK & KCR 17-15 TBR & TEX 18-16 DET 15-16 NYY 16-18 BAL & TOR 14-18 SEA 15-20 CLE 4-29 CWS (2-2 v BOS and 2-27 vs everyone else) Other than the CWS, the standings are almost upside down since June 30th.

July + AUG 18-13 MIN 18-14 HOU 17-14 BOS 17-14 KCR 16-17 BAL 14-16 NYY 14-17 SEA 15-19 CLE June+July+August 35-22 HOU 32-24 BOS 33-25 MIN 33-29 BAL 29-29 KCR & SEA 29-30 CLE 28-29 NYY Nobody is playing like they are a lock for the playoffs, and this is the main reason nobody should count the Sox out.

It seems that the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B was doing rather nicely, but out of nowhere Sogard is taking away their playing time. Granted, DHam was slumping, and Romy is pretty much a straight platoon bat, who has been playing 1B vs LHPs, so Sogard playing more makes sense, but still... OPS last 14 days 1.256 Romy 1.143 Jansen 1.106 Abreu 1.021 O'Neill (IL) 1.020 Devers .921 Ref .913 Yoshida .865 Duran .835 Smith .791 Rafaela .787 Sogard .680 DHam .668 Wong Last 28 days: 1.022 Romy .787 Sogard .646 DHam

I had hoped for more than Paxton, Garcia and Sims. Once again, I think we have over relied on returning pitchers from the IL. (Slaten, Martin, Hendriks...) I certainly will blame another missed playoffs on the lack of pitching. It is clear. Last winter, I advocated signing 3 solid SP'ers and we signed a questionable Giolito and hardly any depth (Criswell & Chase Anderson.) The trading away of Sale came back to bite our ass. Brez may have chosen "a lane," but not full throttle. BTW, we did add a prospect in Priester. I'm not happy with the choices we made with our staff, last winter or during the season. I will say, I was not for selling, this year, and I still think we have a better shot at the playoffs than we did in '22 or '23. (Both of those seasons I wanted us to sell.)

We have a better record than the Astros, and I won't cry about divisional strength, but these Astros have had more and worse injuries than we have, and they are in first place in the ALW. No Tucker for over 3 months. No Verlander and a big chunk or the rest of the rotation has been out for most of the year. GS'd: 10 Verlander 7 Javier 5 France 0 McCullers Jr 0 Luis Garcia 0 Jose Urquidy With all this gone, they are still 59-55.

It would make sense if there was a (secret) 5 year plan in place starting in 2020. (Not saying it is, and for all I know, it could be a 6 year plan or no plan of ever spending bigly again.)

No, I never even came close to saying or thinking this. Our pitching has been in a steep decline for months. My point is about the fact that along the way, we have seen ups and downs, even with the pitching. Baseball is hardly ever linear. Just berak it down to half months, and you can see the difference: 3.10 Early May 5.02 Late May 4.23 Early June 4.54 Late June 3.65 Early July (pretty promising, right?) 6.08 Late July (only 12 games due to ASB) 6.05 in first 7 games of AUG (5.11 first 5) You are assuming we repeat the last 19 games for the rest of the season and think it's delusional to have any hope we can reverse the slide. I think it's delusional to think we do NOt have any hope. Nobody know where we go from here. It's delusional to think we do know. That is my position. I am not predicting we turn it around- only that we can, and it is not a long shot. You think it's delusional to think it's even possible we don't continue sliding downwards or can improve on 6.05.

I'm not predicting a turnaround, so I can't be right or wrong on this. I'm just saying it is very rare when a team repeats it's last months' numbers over and over again, with no change- and this team has been up and down in all areas, numerous times. It's not a long shot chance we turn to the good with out pitching.

Again, you assume there is no chance for a turnaround, while this team has turned it around countless times, already, this year. Garcia and Simms were added, and had some bad games, since joining, but why assume they have to keep being bad? Jansen was written off by many, here, when he had a meltdown stretch months ago, then he bounced back. Are you saying it's impossible for him to work off his last good outing and be strong for 7 more weeks? No way Martin can do well? Zero chance? No way Slaten can come back? Look, I'm not seeing signs for a resurgence, either, but the norm of this team is to bounce back. While true, the pitching woes have been a steady decline, it's not impossible to imagine a few guys getting their s*** back together. Houck and Jansen might have already begun the turnaround- maybe others follow. Do you really think teams are doomed to keep repeating their last month's numbers over and over? Of course, if we keep allowing 7.1 runs a game for the next 7 weeks, we'll be toast, but I think it is equally delusional to think that happens as it is to think we go back to a sub 3 ERA the rest of the way. More likely, we go about 4.25 to 4.75 and if our hitting continues doing well, we'd have a shot. Also, are KCR and HOU/SEA looking all that great, right now? We just need to do better than 1 or 2 of those teams to make it.

Ih he shows half a heartbeat, sign his ass!

We all remember "Restgate" in 2019, and there has been some talk about relying on too many pitchers to throw way more than their previous career highs in IP, but I have to think this is part of it. Not adding SP'er depth was the biggest swing and miss, this past winter. Sure, Gio's injury hurt like hell and forced the overuse of what little depth we had, to begin with, but adding just Criswell and Anderson by opening day was a huge blunder. Here are the OPS Against by month: .613 April .688 May (still very nice, but actually the biggest drop by month) .722 June (not bad) .790 July (uh-oh!) .843 August (horrific)

I'd be thrilled with one TOTR pitcher and another Criswell type or two. I'm not sure that will be enough, though. Why are we expecting full successful seasons from Gio, Houck, Crawford, Bello and Whitlock? While I feel better about most of them than I did in March, all are still question marks for 2025. Plus, no Pivetta, Jansen and Martin is a big hit to the staff.

The actual signing of 1-2 year pitchers did, in fact, start after DD was fired, so that part was accurate. And, DD signed/extended nobody "NEW." Nate's contract started in 2019 and was the last big pitcher signing the Sox made. Sale's extension started in 2020, but was signed earlier. The following SP'er additions were mostly misses, and at these prices, one should not have expected much better results: 2020 $6M Martin Perez I $6M/1 Pivetta (trade for Workman & Hembree) 2021 $23M ($23M AAV) Martin Perez II $5M/1 Garrett Richards $10M/1 Adam Ottavino $8M/1 (trade) 2022 $49M ($31M AAV) Matt Barnes $19M/2 (extension) James Paxton $10M/2 Michael Wacha $7M/1 Rich Hill $5M/1 Jake Diekman $8M/2 2023 $60M ($35M AAV) Kenley Jansen $32M/2 Chris Martin $18M/2 Corey Kluber $10M/1 2024 $49M ($24M AAV) Lucas Giolito $39M/2 Liam Hendriks $10M/2 If you look at just the AAV signed each of the last 4 winters, we spent enough to sign a top pitcher at over $24M x 4 years, but we broke it down and spread it out, instead.) Had we "hit" on more of these signings, it wouldn't look so bad, but you get what you pay for and we got mostly crap. It's weird that perhaps our best season for adding pitchers was 2022 not 2021, so the results have not matched up with the team's success, either.

I think our farm pitching is starting to show signs of improvement, especially in quantity, but what worries me most is two-fold: 1. Our pitchers that are closest to ML-ready do now WOW anyone. Fitts Gambrell Penrod 2. Our highest ranked pitchers are not having great seasons in 2024. Perales (Out for the season with surgery) Sandlin Fitts The guy who is maybe #4 on both lists is Dobbins, who might end up okay, but he WOWs nobody, too. Our best hopes are far-aways and Perales returning from major surgery.

Of course, if we keep "playing like this" nobody should think we are odds on to make the playoffs, but why assume we do? This team has been up and down, all year. To think we have to keep playing badly is just as delusional, right?

That is what I am expecting, too. While I have not lost hope things might change, I no longer expect it to happen. It's not impossible to strike gold on these 1-2 year deals, but we have been awful at it. The best of all our attempts were Wacha and Hill, and both missed time, when we need them most. Paxton did okay for a big chunk of his second year, but he missed time, too. You mentioned things changed "since DD was fired," when it actually started during DD's last year, here. We let Kimbrell and Kelly go and added nobody to the staff. Also, his last two big pitchers signings did not do great with their extensions (Sale & Nate.) I know I am hoping against hope that we make a big splash with the staff, this winter. We really need 2-3, minimum, but even one seems beyond my imagination, now. I still think a big trade has more hope of happening. (More than next to nothing is not saying all that much.)

At least you didn't say "facts are facts," because once again, you got your numbers wrong. Yorke is 9 for 25 on the farm, not 10 for 25. The others you listed are playing against the big boys. Better luck, next time.

Woo was rained out and Sandlin got drilled at POR, but some exciting news from some bats: Ehrhard went 3-4 w his first dinger. Campbell & Teel both went 2 for 5 with dingers. Anthony went 1-5 w a dinger.

Just finished watching the game on delay. That was painful. Another winnable game lost. At least Houck looked real good... maybe something to build on. We had many chances to bust open a crooked number, and even the "right guys" up, but kept coming up short. Oh well, get 'em, tomorrow!

No FT job has been handed to Mayer. He has not even been promoted to AAA, yet. He is certainly highly regarded and in the mix, but for opening day 2025, I would not even say he is the front runner for a middle IF slot. Story is, if he is healthy, and of course that has been the question with him, since joining the Sox. Assuming we do not add anyone else to the middle IF mix, this winter, I think several players will have a chance to win the job, including DHam and Romy (or a DHam-Romy platoon) who both have the rest of this season to improve or lessen their chances of winning a lot of playing time in 2025 or even the starting 2Bman job on opening day. A lot depends on who is our SS. I think it will be Story, but if Mayer wins a job, it could easily be SS, with Story moving to 2B. If that is the case, the only job teh rest will be fighting for is as our utility IF'er. To me, Mayer is no sure bet, especially for opening day 2025. That is why I think Grissom has as good of chance as anyone else for that job. There are just too many moving parts to know for sure who has the inside edge on the job. 1. Story (SS, or maybe 2B, if and when Mayer wins the SS job) 2. Mayer (IMO, most likely SS not 2B) 3. Grissom 4. DHam-Romy platoon at 2B 5. E Valdez (D sucks) or Meidroth (3B/2B/SS) are long shots 6. Campbell (not ready for opening day and may move to OF) (Numbers are not their rankings.)