moonslav59

Yes, "might," if he has a big year. If he gets another $171M/6 offer, it would be $171M vs $80M not $120M. He might even take $150M/6 over $80M/2

Over half (21) of the 40 man roster was not on the 40, when Brez took over 16 months ago. A few were in the system, already, but still, that is an amazing turn-around of the roster. Sogard, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins and JH Garcia were non Brez acquisitions. Brez additions: 40 man: Crochet, Bregman, Buehler, Slaten, Hendriks, Chapman, Giolito, Criswell, Romy, Sandoval, Fitts, Priester, Narvaez, Wilson, Grissom, Weissert, Sabol Non 40: Fulmer, I Campbell, Drohan, N Davis, J Moran, Stock, Mills, Newcomb, Toro, Eaton, Zavala Prospects: Sandlin, Tolle, Cason, D Reyes, J Gonzales, D Soto, S Delzine, Y Fajardo, B Neely, B Clarke, B Tygart, H Rivas, H Ramos, Z Ehrhard, Judice Did I miss someone significant?

A lot depends on how he looks in ST'ing and AAA in 2025. If he looks good, his value could return, but it's good that we do not have to count on him, even to be a 26 man roster sub. I have not given up on him, either, but if he builds back value, it might still end up being trade value. We seem to be so deep at every position Grissom might play, except 3B, but Devers could be viewed as Bregman's back-up, if we go that road. 2B: Campbell, DHam, Romy, Story or Mayer and Rafaela at maybe #5 and with Grissom at #5 or 6. SS: Story and Mayer, Romy, Rafaela, DHam with Grissom #6 3B: Devers & Bregman, Campbell? Romy? Grissom at #3 to #5. OF: Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida and Campbell with Grissom/Romy as #8.

Maybe, Bregman at 2B is not such a done deal... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/red-sox-undecided-on-infield-alignment-following-alex-bregman-deal.html It is interesting that Cora thinks Bregman might be at GG level at 2B defense. Remember, he said something similar about Kike at SSor 2B.

That's how I see it. I think some do not like platoons, because they prefer having 9 all around players, and seeing a line-up with Refsnyder batting 3rd, 5th or 6th just does not look sexy. Ref bashes LHPs so well, that he's almost worthy of platooning with all but 20 players in MLB, if it wasn't for his position and poor D. My seemingly fixated position on the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B was prior to the Bregman signing to play 2B, of course. I'm still fine with the idea, if Bregman moves to 3B. They both are plus defenders- something we have not seen at 2B in a while. The worst part about the poor D at 2B, for years, is that the O has been awful, too. I think a DHam-Romy platoon could have an OPS near .750 with .780-.790 possible, and a likely plus DRS/OAA number. Call me a homer, but this seems reasonable. A Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH makes sense, as does Yoshida-Romy. A Ref-Abreu platoon makes sense, too, either a straight RF platoon or by juggling Duran from LF to CF and Rafaela from CF to RF to improve the OF D in big RF parks.

Yup. They mattered with Renfroe but not O"Neall was only one aspect or the point. While I do recognize RBIs as a luck and opportunity reliant stat, it does make replacing O'Neall's actual production easier to imagine.

And a Ref platoon with Abreu? Certainly doable.

I had serious doubts he'd ever spend large again, too. Of course, he hasn't gone large and long since Price, unless you count Story's moderately large and long deal or the Devers extension. We are back to the top 7 spending clubs, after being 12-th to 14th for a couple years or so. That is a good sign. I'm still not having great expectations, going forward, but I truly feel like a window has opened up, starting with 2025. We lose some major salary after 2025, and should be able to count on 1-3 of our top prospects to fill some slots at the lowest possible cost. That should leave an enormous opportunity to spend, especially if we end up staying under the tax line in 2025. We coudl spend some on extensions (Crochet and maybe Houck or the kids,) and still have enough to fill the slots vacated by Buehler, Gio, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson and maybe Bregman, if he opts out or doesnt resign with us for a longer deal, after he puts up monster numbers in '25. Potential salaries lost after 2025: $40M Bregman ($31.7 CBT) $21.2 Buehler $19,3M Giolito (has an option) $10.8 Chapman $5M Hendriks (has an option) $4.4M Refsnyder + Wilson That's over $100M total! However, we would have these holes to fill: SP2, Closer, SP5, Set-Up man, 2B/3B and RHB. Still, 5 lost and $100M is $20M per slot without adding to the budget, and with 3 top prospects surely ML ready by 2026. 2026 possible FAs SP: Cease, Buehler, Eflin, Bassitt, Fedde, King, Lugo ($15M player option) Flaherty can opt out, Imanaga has club option, D May RP: E Diaz (player option) Helsley, Hendriks & CHapman, Fairbanks (club option) Pressley and many more C: Hedges, S Perez, Realmuto, Caratini & Vazquez 3B: Bregman can opt out 1B: Guerrero , Alonso can opt out

Where does Romy play to get more PAs?

The 2025 CBT Budget, according to cots: 31.7 Bregman (deferred number) 29.3 Devers 23.3 Story 21.1 Buehler 19.3 Giolito 18.0 Yoshida 10.8 Chapman 9.2 Sandoval 9.2 Bello 6.3 Rafaela 5.0 Hendriks 4.7 Whitlock 4.0 Houck 3.9 Duran 3.8 Crochet 2.8 Crawford 2.3 Wilson 2.1 Refsnyder (18 players above min wage) $610K ($760 to Hosmer - $150K Ref's option conversion) 6.4 Pre-arb players 5.3 Injured players 2.6 minor leaguers on 40 1.7 pre-arb bonus pool 17.5 Player benefits TOTAL: $240.4 M $566K under the first tax line. Spotrac has us at $228.6M, but I'm not sure that counts player benefits of $17.5M, which would make it $246.1 and $5M over the line. According to Spotrac, we are now ranked 7th in team budget- $27M from 6th (SDP who are looking to trim salary.)

We have heard how losing O'Neal's bat vs LHPs will be a big blow to our 2025 chances, and it's hard to argue against it being significant, but consider this: how many of our best hitters vs LHPs in 2024 look to get equal or more PAs in 2025? 1.179 O'Neill (156 PAs>0) .941 Refsnyder (145>???) .879 Romy (130>???) .877 Wong (152> ???) .772 Jansen (43> 0) .758 Casas (61> should be way more, barring injury) .737 Westbrook (34>0) .686 Devers (224 should be more and a better OPS in '25) .677 D Smith (47>0) .655 Duran (230) .619 Grissom (24>???) .607 Cooper (28>0) .603 Rafaela (152>?) .565 Yoshida (108>? has to do better) .532 Abreu (67>??? some want him FT) .532 DHam (50>??? should not start vs LHPs) .472 Story (20<???) My point is, if we end up squeezing Ref and Romy out of PAs vs LHPs, it might hurt more than losing O'Neall as they had 275 PSAs vs his 156. I know some posters have an aversion to platoons or "subs" starting when they have the splits, but we cannot afford to bench Ref vs LHPs and maybe Romy deserves playing time vs LHPs, too- somehow/someway/somewhere. The "where" is the major question with Bregman at 2B FT. Maybe Abreu should start the year on a platoon.

The depth in 2024 was pretty good, too. They sort of carried the team to a near miss. Houck was viewed by some as our 6th starter. The loss of Gio gave him his shot. Criswell did great filling in for Whitlock. It took a while, but by July, DHam and Romy did a fine job at 3B, as our 4th and 4th string back-ups (1 Grissom, 2 EValdez and 3 Reyes, all bit the dust.) Rafaela at SS was not great, but he put Kike and other past back-ups to shame. Dom Smith settled in nicely at 1B, after the failed Garrett Cooper experiment. Slaten filled in nicely as a high leverage RP'er, once others failed in that role. Booser did okay from the pen depth, but the rest of the pen depth was largely a letdown.

Fangraphs has the Sox with the best pitching WAR in the AL for 2025 (4th best in MLB.) We are ranked 20th in everyday player fWAR (O & D combined.) That's 12th in the AL. 28th at C 27th at SS 16th in CF 13th in RF 12th in LF (hard to believe) 12th at DH 10th at 2B (Bregman) 8th at 1B T4th at 3B (w HOU) It seems they view our 2024 OF as a fluke and or view the loss of O'Neill as an earth-shattering event. I think our OF is top 5-8th. 1B top 5-7 The rest seems about right, with SS as the wildcard. $40M a year to have the 10th best 2B fWAR. Hmmmm....

I was surprised to see this, as they still have us far down in the rankings of team fWAR projections with Bregman added in. In fact, I don't think we moved up at all from pre-Bregman, which I found odd. They still have us 18th in MLB and 10th in the AL, but give us the second best record in the AL.

It's not needed with Bregman at 2B, of if Campbell wins the FT 2B job. I said that. They will be back-ups as long as Bregman is at 2B or Campbell is the FT 2Bman. There is no disagreement on that. I understand not likeng a "revolving door" at 2B, as it has been a big failure since the Pedey/Nunez days, except for the brief time Story was healthy and at 2B. Nobody liked it, but I do think the DHam-Romy platoon after May of 2024 did well enough to be a plus. DHam ended the season with a 2.6 bWAR and Romy 0.9 in a combined 530 PAs. It is nice having two like them as utility players. They are better there than as starters, but we still will have rotten corner IF defense, when we don't have to. My choice would be to have Bregman at 3B, but I know that is not happening, at least to start 2025.

DHam and Romy are plus defenders at 2B and stabilized that position in 2024, after the horrific start at 2B by EValdez, Reyes & Grissom. Romy had great splits vs LHPs, although that could be an outlier. Dham did okay vs RHPs after May, but that could also have been a fluke. It's not ideal to go into a season with that platoon at 2B, but it does not look like a weakness, on paper. Certainly, Bregman looks better, and Campbell might become a better option, too. The bigger plus, by using Campbell or a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B comes from improving 3B defense with Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas sharing DH/1B duties. That was the context used for having the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, at least until Campbell won the job, outright. There is logic to the idea, despite it not being ideal. With Bregman on board, that changes things, and since Cora wants him at 2B, the debate is ended, in terms of what will happen. The debate on what should happen may never end. despite you wnating it to end.

I'm not so sure the Story example is a predictor of what Cora will do in 2025. Nobody else really has played much 3B. Romy has 106 innings at 3B in MLB and 87 in the minors. DHam has zero. Grissom: 0 in MLB and 235 in the minors. My guess is that when Devers gets a day off, Bregman plays 3B and DHam-Romy-Grissom play 2B. (Maybe Campbell could play 3B, but he will not be a bench player.)

True, but even if he is a GG 2Bman, the best defense is still Bregman at 3B and Campbell at 2B (or a DHam-Romy platoon,) so it may still not be worth it.

Certainly, Grissom could win a slot on the 26 in ST'ing, especially if DHam or Romy struggle, or someone gets hurt, but I agree, as of now, he's the odd man out. (I am also assuming Campbell starts the year at AAA.) Bregman at 2B may force DHam or Romy to AAA to start the year, too. It seems cumbersome to carry Yoshida and Refsnyder, but there are reasons both should not be cut. (Yoshida has options.) A DH platoon seems a total waste of roster space, but that could be how we start the season. Yoshida and Ref can be viewed as our 4th and 5th OF'ers, so they do fill emergency type double roles. Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF, even vs LHPs might be how we start 2025. Ref could play RF vs LHPs, or do a big shuffle and play him in LF at Fenway and move Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF. That gives us 5 players for DH and OF. That leaves 8 slots for 5 positions: C + 4 IF slots, and two will be catchers Wong and Narvaez, leaving 6 slots for the IF: 1B Casas, 2B Bregman, 3B Devers, SS Story and two more- my guess is DHam and Romy. We will not put Campbell or Anthony on the 26, unless they will be playing FT or near FT, so there will need to be an injury or a big decision to bench someone to get either on the 26. The obvious move would be Bregman to 3B and Campbell to 2B, but we could also see Abreu and Rafaela becoming a platoon with Anthony playing FT (maybe CF v RHPs and RF vs LHPs.) Cora has a lot of options and flexibility, despite having 2 DH only type players on the 26.

Stroman's value would be mostly by adding someone to the pen, maybe even Stroman, himself. He's better than Wilson.

Who bats second? That's the slot modern line-up analysis deems most important, or tied with 4th as most important. Apparently, the 3rd slot should be your 5th best batter. Devers should bat 2nd or 4th, and since he has the most power on the team, I'd place him 4th. I might put Bregman 2nd to split up the run of lefty batters, and because he normally has an OBP over .360 (not in '24,) and I like Duran's speed up first. 1. L Duran 2. R Bregman 3. 4. Devers 5. I could see batting Story 3rd vs LHPs and Casas 5th, and flip them vs RHPs, but Casas has hit LHP pretty well, so I'd just slot Casas 3rd and Story 5th, every game. That could change over the season. We could also see Campbell muscle hsi way into the top 5 batters, especially if Story struggles on O, or someone gets hurt. Abreu might deserves a top 5 slot vs RHPs and Refsnyder vs LHPs, so maybe one of those two, or both, get slotted 3rd or 5th, at some point, or they bat 6th. Yoshida or a Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon could bat 6th or 7th. Our 8-9 slots will be filled by Wong/Narvaez and DHam/Romy-Grissom, if they play 2B over Bregman or more likely, Rafaela in CF or CF/RF (when Abreu sists v LHP.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Sandoval to the 60 Day IL to make room for Bregman. No surprise. It's surprising to hear Bregman turned down $171M/6 w DET, and there was an opt-out after 2026! The talk that nobody wants to play in Boston just took a major hit. The talk that JH will never spend big, again took a hit, although this is still just a large contract- not large and long, so that aspect is still debate worthy. I'm hopeful that Bregman will help this team in ways not seen in data. He was a big clubhouse guys, here in HOU. He helped many player adjust and get better, often with specific recommendations that worked, bigtime. He even learned Spanish, so he could better relate to the many Spanish-speaking teammates he had over the years. He's had enormous success at Fenway, even when our pitching was very good. It's hard to keep the optimism down. Breslow deserves a big pat on the back. These are the players Breslow has added to the 26, who will play in their first Sox game in 2025: Crochet & Bregman Buehler & Giolito Hendriks & CHapman Wilson & maybe Fulmer & Sandoval Narvaez & maybe these 3 not added by Brez: Campbell, Anthony and Mayer. That's 13 players not part of the 2024 MLB 26 man roster. Then, there are hopes for seeing many more games from Story, Casas and Whitlock. Technically, spring has not arrived, yet, but it has for Sox fans!

So, Campbell to the OF, along with Anthony to replace one or two of our best hitters, so we can keep our corner IF defense the worst in MLB, and perhaps MLB history. That is obviously oversimplifying the situation, but is it false?