moonslav59

He WAS "elite. He's not anymore. DRS" +9 in '20 and +11 in '21, then +1, -1, +1 OAA: +4, +4, 2, 0 -3 2020-2021: +20 DRS, +7 OAA, +9.9 UZR/150 2022-2024: +1 DRS (not elite) -2 OAA (negative) +0.3 UZR/150 (not elite) The 3 year sample size is large enough to see that he is NO LONGER elite. He's barely plus. (2023-2024 is 0 DRS and -4 OAA)

Well, 32 GS for 3 years in a row is nice. ERA+ of 114 since 2020 (3.70 ERA and 3.48 FIP) 1.165 WHIP 10 Ks per 9 4.2 K/BB 13th in fWAR. Is that a number one, to you. Top 20 in FIP and xFIP His 89 ERA- is better than Nola, Kirby & Gilbert and just a little worse than Nate & Rodon This guy is for real. He's only 28 (Turns 29 in June.)

Could be. Adding Kikuchi, or Flaherty plus Nick Martinez & Scott should get us to above .500 and into the playoffs, but knowing our luck, we'll be at .500 again. I would say ... Kikuchi> Pivetta Martinez > the scrub pen games Scott> 2024 Jansen Hendriks> 2024 Martin Gio might push someone to the pen. Story > Rafaela at SS Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others > what we had in 2024. I think adding 3 like this is about the minimum we could do to make me have hope for 2025.

#11 Iowa St looks like they are out of the running, losing to Texas Tech. #10 Texas A & M lost to So Carolina 44-20.. #11 Clemson lost to Louisville 33-21 #13 Indiana stayed undefeated an should be in the top 12, this week. #17 K St lost to HOU #18 Pitt lost 48-11 to #20 SMU. The new rankings might be... 1. Oregon, 2. Ohio St. 3. Georgia, 4. Miami, 5. Texas, 6. Tenn, 7. BYU, 8. Penn St. 9. Notre Dame 10. Indiana 9-0 11. Alabama 6-2 12. Boise St 7-1 13. Ole Miss 7-2 14.. SMU 8-1 15. LSU 6-2 16. Army 8-0

Cots has us almost $80M under the tax line, but they have not been so accurate, of late. If the number is $80M, Soto and Burnes might come to that. If Brez was given $70-75M to spend, according to the projected contracts by The Athletic, we could do wonders. Here are but a few examples: A) 29 Fried, 16 O'Neill, 15 Scott, 11 Estevez B) 42 Soto, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott C) 21 Nate, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott, 9 Hoffman, 9 C Holmes D) 21 Nate, 15 Scott, 13 N Martinez, 11 Estevez, 9 Hoffman Then,,, I woke up. I asked at $40-45M and now $70-75M, what if it's $30-35M? 15 Scott , 13 N Martinez, $9M Hoffman (OK, that's $37M)

Getting JH to sign just one of these two is likely impossible.

I was assuming the Abreu+DHam for Lopez deal, involved us paying full price.

#4 Ohio St beat #3 Penn St, but Penn St should still be in the top 12. #5 MIA keeps rolling over bad to mediocre teams. #15 Boise St keeps hanging around, winning today and are at 7-1. #19 Ole Miss crushed Arkansas at Ark. #21 Army went to 8-0, and if the finish undefeated, if might be hard to keep them out of the top 12. (They play ND and Navy.) Maybe we see an upset in a late game. ND has the day off.

I think MIN can get better than Abreu + DHam from some other team. I'm not sure adding Wink or Priester, or even Fitts will be a better offer than they get, elsewhere, but am not onboard with giving up Campbell, Mayer or Anthony for Lopez. I'd have to think hard about Teel, but maybe any two from Arias, Bleis and Cespedes might work. Would you give Abreu & Arias for Lopez?

While I really like The Dugo for Fitts (and others) and Yorke for Priester trades, I think we need to look for higher level young pitching that who they are. I doubt we part with Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel or Monty, and I'm not sure Arias, Cespedes, Bleis and Jh Garcia, even if combined can bring back what we need. Better than Fitts or Priester? Probably, but not a #2 or 3. Pitchers like Pablo Lopez, Gausman or Luis Castillo might need less of a return package, due to their contracts, but with an assumed tight budget for Brez, this winter, I'm not sure we can make their contracts fit. Most are cheaper than a FA would cost, now, but not by a lot. It might look better to keep the kids and just sign a tier two SP'er like Martinez, Flaherty or Kikuchi. I like the idea of trading for an ace and spending the FA money on Scott or Estevez plus another good one like Hoffman, Holmes or ____.

I'd even add to the Pablo trade to get him. Offer their choice from Wink, Mata, Shugart, Wikelman or maybe even penrod, Kelly, I Campbell or Weissert. Word is they are also considering trading one of their arb pitchers (Ober or Ryan.) I'd work hard to nab Pablo and one of them, and would then consider trading Mayer or Campbell to make it happen.

If our winter budget is limited, as most of us expect it will be, and we need 3-4 kep additions, we could use Abreu, DHam and maybe Wink to add complimentary pieces like a catcher and a decent RP'er. This allows the FA money to be spent on 2 players, not 4. Maybe we can sign Scott and Martinez and see what the best is we can get for Abreu and DHam, leaving us with this: SP: Houck, Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Gio & Criswell SP/RP (AAA: Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Gambrell, I Coffey, Drohan, Wikelman, AA Sandlin) RP: Scott, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, __trade__, Fulmer, Guerrero (AAA: Penrod, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Shugart, Kwiat.) C: __trade__, Wong (AAA: Teel) 1B: Casas (AAA: Gasper/Jordan) 2B: Grissom, E Valdez (AAA: Campbell, Sogard) SS: Story, Romy (AAA: Mayer) 3B: Devers (AAA: Meidroth) LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L (AA: Castro) CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L (AA: Jh Garcia) RF: Anthony (AA: Sikes) DH: Yoshida/Ref if not in LF (AAA: Hickey/Jordan) We can platoon Ref in LF or DH, or a little of both. We can wait until someone goes on the 60 Day, to add Campbell or Mayer to the 40 and 26. We can start with EValdez in AAA and have Sogard or someone else as #26. I think, even trading Abreu and Dham and not replacing O'Neill, still leaves us with enough quality and depth at every position, assuming Story and Mayer are not hurt, at the same time.

Who do you sign, if the winter budget is $40-45M?

The one year aspect is hard to ignore.

I think Nick Martinez realizes this is the time to get years and dollars. I think he, along with maybe Flaherty and Kikuchi might be in our price range, and if we do get Scott, we won't be spending real big on a SP'er. (Maybe a trade for a cheaper one?)

Crochet is risky, but worth the pursuit. My beef is the 2 years of team control and not a long record of success. MLB is full of one year wonders that go nowhere, fast. Crochet missed 2022 due to injury and could easily join the revolving door of Sox failed additions, although he sure looks better than Gio, Richards, Kluber and others did, at the times we added them. However, Kluber looked okay for one year, too, plus he had a great history from years before. Gio might have sucked at the end of 2023, but he did have several years of success, compare to one from Crochet. Crochet doe not even have a minor league record to look at. He basically went from college to MLB, right out of the gate (12 IP in minors.) His college career was just 132 IP with a 4.38 ERA. Don't get me wrong, I'd like Crochet in our 2025 rotation, but he is a risk, for sure.

I pay attention to our ranking, but don't feel the need to repeat what has been said, over and over. I never implied the reason we are in the middle tier now is only because other owners have gone "nutty." I know JH is the major reason. I do think, that if he spent as much as is minimally to moderately reasonable, we'd still be about 5th to 9th- not 1 to 3 as we were for such a long period. We have never dropped this low, under JH. That is true. Maybe I need to say that more often, but it seems like something everyone knows and says over and over. My point is about trying to predict where JH is going is impossible. While I agree, that a change happened after 2018, many saw it coming. Nobody expected it to last 5-7 years, and I do agree a long term down trend has been underway, but the ups and downs are still going on. What's wrong with pointing that out, and when I do, I always try to provide context. The fact is, we were 3rd in spending in 2021, according to Steve the Ump. We were 6th in 2022, despite adding $15M to the budget. 2021 and 2022 were not a decade ago. They were within the 5-7 year overall decline since 2018. It's not unreasonable to ask those who think budget cuts are going to continue what evidence supports this belief? 2 years in a row of cuts? JH has done that numerous times in 20+ years. Again, I'm not defending JH. I'm not saying he won't cut the budget, even more, this winter and maybe the next, too. I'm only saying we don't know. I'll be more surprised if he spend up to the tax line than if he cuts more. We have so much coming off the books, this winter and I'm sure JH views Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer as like this coming winter spendings & additions, without adding to the current budget. I do also think if Brez spends wisely, we can improve without spending more than 2024, but why should we bet on that? I want us to spend more, just like everyone else. It bothers me, when we don't. It bothers me that we keep dropping in the rankings. I'm not optimistic JH spends big again, but I am optimistic that our young roster is improving before our eyes and should keep improving for 2-3 more year or more. I'm hopeful JH & Co see this, too and will spend when the feel we are 2-3 key pieces away from being a top contender. I think we can be there in 2025 with 3 major additions. My guess is, they do not see it as "the time" to splurge. They probably see 2026 or 2027 as the best time and will try to pull a sham on us again, this winter.

It's interesting to note, that even after the Dodgers spent all that winter money, they still ended up needing some deadline deals to win the ring. I can't imagine many owners going to that length to reach glory. Maybe 2-3 others have come close to this last Dodger attempt, but fell short.

To be clear, I have said that a few owners "going nutty" only accounts for some of the reason for us dropping in the rankings- NOT the whole reason. Surely, JH's tightening of the budget is also a major reason for the drop. There are more teams going over the CBT line than before, so there is merit to my point and position. We increased our budget from $180M to $195M from 2021 to 2022. That was one of JH's biggest increases, but we dropped from 3rd to 6th in the rankings. Clearly, other teams' spending has a strong influence on our drop in rankings. I keep feeling like I have to keep saying that I am not trying to let JH off the hook by providing some facts that try to put it all in context. A BIG PART OF OUR DROP IS ON HENRY! I fully support this position and am pisses as hell at him for this. On "noone is accusing JH of going Pohlad," i disagree, and the couple posters who keep saying they think JH will continue to cut and cut until we are a small market like spender is who most of my posts are directly responding to. They say JH will never hand out a massive contract again, during the same season we just paid Devers way more than the Price deal. The Story deal from 2 years ago was also one of the Sox highest 5 or 6 FA contracts in history. We paid more for Yoshida than Pablo, HRam, Lackey, Porcello and others. Within the context of losing Betts, Bogey, JD, Porcello, Sale, Price and others, it's clearly still a step down in spending big on single players, but it's not fully stopping on big deals as some say or imply. Then, they say, "Well, JH had to keep Devers after losing Betts and Bogey," and that is very true, but did JH or did he not spend very large and long on a player? The answer is yes. Will he again? I don't know. They say we have been cutting "every year," and we have not. I showed how JH has always gone up and down and asked why they feel it is a surity it will always go down, from here on out. I even provided the context behind the big jump from 2020 to 2022 as being a mirage, since the cut was so deep from 2019 to 2020, that it wipes out the increase, afterwards, and that the general trend has been down since even 2018 (not 2019.) I've lengthened the time of cuts a year more than they did by showing that I think 2019 was an actual "cut" budget, because we let Kimbrel and Kelly go and the increase in the budget was just paying more to arb guys plus the Nate re-sign. I think I am giving a fair and balanced account of what JH has done, recently, since 2018 and over his whole era. I'm not defending him, but I'm also not out to crucify him, either. There are several posters, here, that wanted him gone, yesterday. I'm not saying they are wrong for wanting that, or that they have no reason for wanting that, but I disagree that now or yesterday is the time for that. My position is and has been, I don't know if JH will spend big again. I'm not sure why or how my position can be viewed as wrong or slanted. I'm not the one(s) predicting what JH is going to do or not do.

The Athletic projects these FA salaries: $41.5M x 15 Soto $35.2M x 7 Burnes (list Sox as fit) $35M x 3 Snell $29M x 6 Fried (Sox fit) $27M x 7 Alonso $26.6M x 7 Bregman $25M x 6 Adames $23.5 x 6 Santander $28M x 4 Bellinger $25M x 3 Teoscar H $24M x 3 C Walker $22.6M x 3 Manaea & Flaherty $18M x 3 Wacha $21M x 2 Nate (Sox fit) $15M x 4 Scott $14.7M x 3 Profar $14M x 3 Kikuchi (maybe in Sox price range?) $11M x 4 G Torres $17M x 2 Hoskins $16M x 2 O'Neal (Sox only listed fit) & Severino (Sox fit) $13.3M x 3 N Martinez (Sox fit and maybe most likely signing) $14M x 2 J Quintana $11M x 3 Estevez (Sox fit and maybe affordable) $20M x 1 Morton $13M x 2 Pederson & Dugo $12M x 2 B Lowe $9M x 3 J Hoffman (Sox fit) $15M x 1 Goldschmidt $9.3M x 2 C Holmes (Sox) $8.5M x 2 Treinen $10M x 1 Boyd (S0x) $6M x 2 Iggy Other odd bals... Buehler and H S Kim $10m + incentives Bieber: "Low Base Salary w incentives" Monty takes $22.5M option & AZ trades him If our AAV budget is between $35-45M, we could do a lot.... $15M x 4 Scott $13,3M x 3 N Martinez $11M x 3 Esteves This is just over $39M. Sub Nate for Nick at about the same contract number but more AAV ($47M total) Kikuchi, Nick and Tanner would be under $45M AAV Soto & C Holmes is just over $50M AAV. (Trade Abreu, DHam and Fitts for SP) Burnes and Esteves is just over $45M AAV, but Fried and Scott are just under $45M. My choices, if we spend $45M AAV: 1. $15M x 4 Scott, $13.3M x 3 N Martinez, $11M x 3 Esteves + Bieber or Buehler or 2. #13.3M x 3 Nick Martinez, $11M x 3 Estevez, $9,3M x 2 C Holmes, $9M x 3 Hoffman or 3. $18M x Wacha or $21M Nate w $15M Scott and $9M x 3 Hoffman

The first guy is perfect for another dice roll pitcher: the second squeezes a good OF'er off the roster.

Agreed, and there is no indication we make more moves than half the teams, this winter. Other teams, especially the Dodgers, have more players returning from injury, but we may have more than most: Gio, Henriks, Fulmer, plus maybe more from Story, Casas, Devers, Slaton, Whitlock, and more. Not many teams have more promising top ranked prospects at ML-readiness. If we can keep pace with off season outside additions, I think we can be top 10-12, at worst. Barring a mess of injuries, of course.

I think you give more credit to 17 other team's rosters, right now.

I kinda think Brez did fine filling our RHB OF slot with O'Neill at less than $6M, while trading the cancerous remaining one year of Dugo for Fitts, Weissert and Judice. We might not need a 3 year guy, if Anthony comes through, and we also have Campbell, who could play OF, FT, or play 2B vs LHPs and CF vs RHPs.

I agree on none of our prospects being added to the 40, unless it's also to the 26 as a FT player or near FT role. I think Campbell might have the best chance to start or be added day 2, once someone gets placed on the 60 IL. I think Anthony would be the #1, if we trade Abreu or Rafaela, or as some suggest, Duran. I do see both making it to the 40, 26 and bigs by mid season. If everyone is healthy, starting Story at SS and having a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B makes sense. If not OF'er is traded, I could see starting with Duran/Ref LF -Rafaela/Duran CF- Abreu RF could be the plan for opening day.