moonslav59

I agree, and last year, I think I came up with a list of 30-35 "what ifs" or "if this goes right" scenarios and said that we didn't need all to go right but maybe half or two-thirds. We probably have close to that again, but to me, maybe they don't seem so far-fetched. A few what ifs look a lot better, this year, than last, especially Houck and Duran. Here is a rough list, as of now... Just stay healthy: Story, Casas, Devers, Buehler, Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Yoshida and Sandoval (July-Aug?) Just don't decline: Crochet, Houck, Duran, Chapman, Slaten, Ref, DHam, Abreu (maybe get better v LHPs) and those on the "stay healthy list could be here, too. (guys like Gio, Buehler and Hendriks have more than just injury questions.) The more specific questionables: Crawford- get the HRs under control (He seemed to answer the IP question in '24.) Bello- did not improve in 2024, but still has a lot of potential, IMO. Winckowski- seems like a bit of a wildcard. Criswell- was 2024 a fluke? Priester, Fitts & Dobbins- we may just need 1 to do well, maybe two. Guerrero, Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino, Penrod & Shugart- all on the 40 and have some level of promise or decent ceilings. We might need a few of these guys to rise up and do well. We may not have the luxury of cycling through 3-4 of these guys doing poorly, before we find one or two that do well. Fulmer, I Campbell, Mata, A Adames, Gambrell, Drohan and others are not on the 40, but may be added, if injuries or DFAs occur. Wong- improve the D, dude! (He seemed to answer the O questions in '24.) Grissom- more questions now than last winter. Rafaela (no SS, please)- needs to improve on O and stop making easy out errors Narvaez- Looks good on D, so I've been told, but is he a true MLB catcher, yet? Romy- may not be needed to improve or stay the same. Anthony, Campbell & Mayer are all very promising but unknowns. Sogard & Jh Garcia (on the 40) and Zavala, Eaton and Hickey (not on the 40) could be used, at some point.

Unless there is a setback, Giolito will be taking the ball in ST'ing and will be ready to pitch the 4th or 5th game of the 2025 season. He will not start the year on the 60 day IL. (Maybe the 15.) Whiltock is working out with Gio, and Gio says he is near his readiness, but I'd guess May 1st on Whit, and not the 60 day, but he's a close call. Yoshida should not need the 60 day IL, but might start out on the 15 that lasts 25-40 days. Murphy doesn't matter. Sandoval will surely be placed on the 60 day, once the season starts. The big Q, to me, is who do we add, the day we place him on the 60? Fulmer? I Campbell? Zavala? or.... Campbell, Anthony or Mayer? (I think we wait on these three, until they gain a year of control.)

I totally get your point, and since off-loading Yoshida will not be easy, I can see why trading Casas and playing Devers at 1B makes sense. Of course, we are not trading Casas just to dump him. I expect a very nice return package that would greatly improve another weak area(s) on the team, like catcher or closer. If Helsley had more than one year of control, a Casas for Helsley & Arenado, plus some cash might work, instead of signing Bregman. Casas to OAK for Miller and Kyle McCann? Casas, DHam and Wong for Miller & Langeliers? (might have to sub in Abreu for the latter.) I'm not really against this idea: 1B/DH Casas and Devers LF: Yoshida & Ref platoon or Duran v R CF: Duran (Rafaela v R) RF: Abreu v R -Rafaela v L I know this hurts our LF D, but an improvement at 3B D would outweigh it, and the LF situation could be short-lived or changed to Duran-Rafaela-Abreu v R or add Anthony, later.

Devers has shown glimpses of being a good defender, especially with his glove and range. His issue is mostly with his inaccurate arm. Nearly half his career errors are throwing. This is one reason I'd like to see him at 1B, this year.

This is probably my homer bias showing through, but if Casas stays healthy and plays 150+ games, I can see 2025 being a break-out season, for him. He turns 25, very soon and can still be considered "pre-prime," and these are his 2023-2024 numbers per 162: .256 31 97 (.357 OBP and .480 SLG) .838 OPS and 126 OPS+ with horrific defense at 1B. Try Devers at 1B for 81 games (maybe 100-120, if he shows he's better than Casas at 1B) and Casas at DH for 40-81 games. What could a "break out" season look like for Casas at 160 games? .275 40 120 (.375/.525/.900) That could be enough to get the Sox over the top, as long as others don't decline before or in their primes. I'd hate to trade him away and see these results for another team.

I won't be happy, if we sign Bregman to play 2B. I was barely for the idea of choosing this guy as "they guy," even for 3B. That being said, I feel like the window could be opened, now, with one major addition and maybe a tweak or two. Bregman is the only guy left, since I think Tanner Scott is not even on our radar. I'm not for trading Casas, but notin might be right, due to his not wanting an extension. I don't blame him: he is one full healthy season away from a possible break-out year that would increase his value a ton. Of course, off-loading Yoshida could allow for a Casas/Devers timeshare at 1B/3B, so Breg could play 3B. I'm okay with starting the season with a DHam- Grissom/Romy platoon at 2B, until we see what Campbell can do. Pushing Breg into the 2B slot messes up two areas, as he could have fixed the 3B D issue. Campbell could end up in the OF, if we traded Abreu, the LHB. To me, Breg at 3B, make a trade of Abreu and or DHam for a catcher and RP'er, or just sign Estevez, Yates or Finnegan, and I'd call us serious contenders. I'd still dislike the way we became a contender, but we've all waited, too long to be one, already. C: ______ & Wong 1B/DH: Devers & Casas 2B: DHam & Grissom/Romy (assuming no DHam trade) Campbell in May/June? SS: Story (Romy until Mayer gets the call) 3B: Bregman (Grissom/Romy/Mayer?) LF: Yoshida/Ref platoon (Duran) CF: Duran & Rafaela RF: Anthony (Abreu, if not trades as a platoon with Rafaela) SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Crawford) RP: ______, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero until Whitlock is ready. This is a top 4 AL team. HOU got worse. BAL got worse. NYY is about the same. DET might have improved. KCR, CLE & SEA are about the same.

So fitting.

Is "questionable" better than known god-awful? Is Pinto any good on D?

The O's DFA'd catcher Rene Pinto to make room for Morton. I don't know much about him, or the catcher the Dodgers just DFA'd, but I wonder if Brez is kicking some used tires.

If you knew what most ownership groups are doing, you would not have much to spend on.

Only 4 of the top 13 CFP rankings won and 5 of the top 16. Of course 4 and 5 of those losses were to other top 13 and 16 teams, but maybe these guys didn't really get it right. The 18-22 teams went 6-0 and the 18-25 teams went 8-1. #6 OSU beat #1 Oregon (who beat them earlier) #5 ND beat #2 Georgia The SEC is 8-6 in bowl games, but their top 4 teams are 1-3. The Big 10 is 8-5, and their ranked teams are 5-2, with one loss vs another Big 10 team. Independents are 3-0 and the American Conference is 6-1. The MAC is 4-2.

I inched them up a slot or two based on your expert opinion given in previous posts.

I was thinking that, today. DET got Torres. The Yanks got Fried. AZ spent unexpectedly on Burnes. It seems this would be an "afterthought" signing or one to try and get JH & Co back into the good graces of fans who are disgusted by his 6 year, tight wallet. Bregman was not in my top list of FAs I felt were a good fit. Now that we added 2 SP'ers, all the SP'ers on the board are off limits to Brez, IMO. I doubt we sign Scott, and I have little hope we add a second tier RP'er, so it comes down to just a handful of players that fill a need. Only Bregman fills 2 needs (RHB & 3B defense, if we actually sign him to play there.) Alonso fits the RHB need, but he'd crowd the 1B/DH role, already loaded up with Casas and Devers (1B) and Yoshida, Ref, Casas & Devers (DH.) Santander fill the RHB problem, but wants too many years and play OF- our strongest position. I won't be pissed, if we sign Bregman, unless they announce he'll play 2B. I'll be happy JH decided to finally outbid someone on a "real" FA big shot, but when you look at all the "so close" signings from the past few years, Bregman does not strike me as the "one we had to get."

I can't see Bello or Gio sent to the pen. I doubt we go with a 6 man rotation, and if we do, it won't be for long. While Crawford started all those games and killed his IP personal best, he had a better WAR in '23. The bombs ruined his chance for a great season.

The Dodgers, who else? signed Hyeseong Kim to $12M/3. They DFA'd former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya (Sox interest?) O's sign Charlie Morton to a Soxesque $15M/1 deal.

I'm comparing our #6-10 SP'ers to other teams, not to our 1-5. I admit I don't know how good other teams' rotation depth is, but I'm thinking ours is better. In 2024, Houck and Criswell were "depth." That was not our weakness. It was our 1-5. I'm not sure we go with a 6 man rotation, but even if we do, I'd still count Crawford as depth, since a SP'er going down would mean we go to a 5 man.

Okay, but when Penrod was added to the 26, we still had a few guys at Woo on the 40, and they chose a previous AA pitcher over giving them a look-see.

Crawford is our #6, then Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and maybe Fulmer. To me, our rotation depth is better than most teams and maybe top 10. (Wink & Whitlock could be included in "depth," too.)

I could be wrong, but isn't the 14th out of 15th ranking for positional players including defense? I doubt we are 14th in batting, but they don't list fielding. I'm not sure. We were tied for 10th in all of MLB in wRC+, last year. We were 11th in fangraph's batting ranking in '24. I don't see losing O' Neill dropping us 10 slots. We should gaing more games played by Casas + Story than O'Neill played for us (113.)

I agree. I was just speaking about the #2 ranking in the AL on pitching. I think we are top 5 in the AL, but maybe 10th to 12th overall.

We have some RHPs who do better or the same vs LHBs. I just don't think Wilson is all that good, anymore. We may add another RP'er by oprning day, too.

We need health for the pitching to be top 5, but on paper, I think it is. (remember, top 5 out of 15 AL teams, not 30 MLB teams.) BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito, 0.8 Chapman, 0.6 Hendriks, 0.5 Whitlock, Slaten & Wilson Look at the pitching by other AL teams. (projected 0.5+ pitchers listed, only) NYY: 3.2 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gill & Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman, 0.7 Cruz & D Williams, 0.5 Beeter, Leiter & Hamilton SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.8 Woo, 0.8 Munoz, 0.6 Santos, 0.5 Brash DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olsen, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.6 G-Long & B Hunter, 0.5 Maeda, Vest & k Montero KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 wacha, 1.4 Marsh, Bubic & Wright, 0.7 Erceg & Haivey MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.4 Ryan, 2.6 Ober, 1.4 Paddock & Festa, 1.1 Duran, 1.0 W-Richards & Mathhews, 0.9 Jax, 0.7 Stewarts, 0.6 Sands, 0.5 Varland HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 H Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 L Garcia & Arrighetti, o.9 Hader & McCullers, 0.8 Abreu, 0.7 Wesneski, 0.6 Pressley CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Beiber, 0.9 Clase & C Smith, 0.8 Cantillo, ).7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell, 0.6 Fairbanks BAL: 2.8 Eflin, 2.7 G Rod, 1.3 Kremer, 1.1 Bautista & Povich, 0.7 Suarez & Akin, 0.5 T Rogers & Cano LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Kochanowicz, 0.6 Joyce OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.5 Miller, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn & Bido, 1.5 Basso CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Shults & Thorpe I find it hard to project 5 teams with better pitching staffs than ours, on paper. Many have big or bigger question marks than we have with Gio, Buehler, Hendriks & Whitlock.

I do think all 3 show some promise, but need to step up a notch or two to win the job FT. DHam needs to hit LHPs to win the FT job. He is currently good enough vs RHPs and on D, and his baserunning skills give him a decent bump up, if he lacks a little vs LHPs. Grissom needs to improve his defense (or prove it at 2B.) He also needs to prove his offense from earlier in his career was not a fluke. Romy is a bit of a wild card. His bat could take off, or continue to be a question mark. His defense seems fine, but does not have a large sample size at 2B. He seems more like the ultimate utility guy who can play 7 positions, pretty well, while not killing you on offense. Campbell looks like the only all around talent, but is unproven at the ML level and isn't even on the 40, yet. Between these 4 guys, I'm confident one will rise to the top, and do well enough to not make 2B a hole, or a decent platoon situation will prevail. I kinda like a DHam-Grissom platoon, despite the poor projected defense by Grissom vs LH'd SP'ers, which is not a whole lot of games, thankfully.)

According to soxprospects.com, these are the only Sox players with zero options remaining: Story, Refsnyder, Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. On this list, only Wilson may end up not deserving a 26 man roster slot. Refsnyder could get squeezed, if we add a RHB, especially someone like Grichuk. It gives Brez and Cora a lot of flexibility, and we may see a lot of ups and downs between BOS & WOO. The fact that none of our top 3 prospects, all deemed "ML ready" or "near ML ready" need to be on the 40 man roster creates an interesting scenario, as the season unfolds. It is entirely possible none are on the opening day 40, and they should not be, unless they are on the opening day 26. None should be added, unless the plan is to play them nearly FT at the ML level. The extra year of service timing could also be a major factor in when they are added, if at all. We know JH is a miser, these days, and that extra year of "cheaper" cost may mean more to him than we can imagine. To me, if we end up DFA'ing Wilson, I won't be surprised. Trading Refsnyder should only happen, if we solve our issues vs LHPs. Ref is a top 20 batter vs LHPs in all of MLB, over the past 2-3 seasons. His inability to play a position well makes it tough, since we also have Yoshida in the same situation. Together, they make a nice DH platoon, but keeping 2 DH only players on a 26 man roster seems very odd and wrong. They can both play LF, in a pinch, but taking up 2 out of 13 slots on the 26, when 2 catchers are also needed, really constricts Cora's choices. 2 of the 4 bench slots are filled by a catcher and a DH. It helps to have super utility guys like Rafaela (CF, 2B and RF, with SS in emergency situations) and DHam (2B, 3B and maybe SS) or Romy (all positions, except C.) To me, Grissom is limited to 2B and 3B, and he has yet to prove he can defend either one, even at an average skill level. I'm going to assume two minor moves are made before opening day: Abreu & Refsnyder are traded for a Catcher and/or RP'er, and we sign Grichuk and a RP'er or Catcher- see Abreu/Ref trade(s.) That leaves this 26 man roster on opening day: C: Wong & _____ (Narvaez in AAA- Zavala as non 40 man depth) 1B: Casas (Romy) 2B: D-Ham- Grissom platoon (Sogard AAA & Campbell as non 40 depth) SS: Story, Romy (Sogard AAA & Mayer as non 40 depth) 3B: Devers (Romy, Grissom) Campbell & Eaton as non 40 depth LF: Grichuk (Duran) Sogard AAA CF: Duran, Rafaela (Anthony) Campbell as non 40 depth RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Sogard AAA (Campbell as non 40) DH; Yoshida (Casas/Devers) Jh Garcia as AA depth and Hickey & Jordan as non 40 depth Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Fulmer, Drohan, Gambrell as non 40 depth) Pen: Chapman/Hendriks, ______, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero>Whitlock (when healthy) AAA: Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino, Shugart and non 40 depth ICampbell, Mata, W Mills, A Adams, J Adames, H Harris, N Davis and others.

Yes, added to the 40 but not "had to" to the 26.