moonslav59

I'm not sure why starting Campbellover a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B should influence the Anthony decision, unless it's about the 40 man roster crunch pushing Brez towards just adding one, and saving other kids for later. The way the injuries and illnesses are, right now, I think Anthony in RF makes more sense than Campbell at 2B. I'm going to say DHam and Romy "earned" starting slots, but they did look pretty good with the splits in '24. If Abreu is not ready, starting Anthony in RF makes sense, but if Abrei is just out for a few days, we should not add Anthony, unless we are ready to play him FT, once Abreu returns. How does that look? vs RHP: LF Duran, CF Anthony, RF Abreu vs LHP: LF Refsnyder, CF Duran, RF Anthony There is no starting slot for Rafaela, this way.

We are not even sure Abreu starts the season on the 10 Day IL. He may just sit out the first game or two. We have Duran, Rafaela and Refsnyder. If Yoshida is not on the IL, he could be used in LF, even with the weak arm, but yes, Romy can be the back-up for a few days. I doubt we add Sogard to the 26, even if Yoshida and Abreu are out. We still have a few guys who could be added to the 60 Day IL to make temporary room on the 40: Perales, Penrod & Murphy (Crawford, Bello and Gio look like 15 Day IL guys, as of now.) With the unbalanced 40 man roster favoring pitchers over everyday players, it looks like 2-3 everyday players will be added, at some point- maybe not all by opening day. Everyday players on the 26 and 40: 13 of the 26 for sure, these look like the sure 10-12: Wong, Narvaez, Casas, Devers, DHam, Story, Bregman, Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder (Abreu & Yoshida on 10 Day IL?) MLB or AAA: Romy, Grissom, Sogard, Sabol AA: Jh Garcia Possible add-ons: Anthony, Campbell & Mayer or Eaton, Thompson, Sykes & Toro (Zavala, if Sabol goes) The pitching is more complicated as so many guys will start on the 15 & 60 Day IL: 60 Day: Sandoval and maybe Perales, Penrod & Murphy 15 day: Crawford, Giolito, Bello Sure 10 of the 13: SP- Crochet, Houck, Buehler and likely Fitts & Priester (Newcomb or Criswell?) RP- Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Wilson 3 more from the Maybes: Criswell, Guerrero, Bernardino, Winckowski, Weissert, Kelly Not on 40: Newcomb, Ottavino, Fulmer, Mata, I Campbell, N Davis, Adams, Moore. I'm not sure any of these guys get added, except maybe Newcomb, due to our higher need for everyday players on the 40, but with so many pitchers starting out on the IL, maybe Newcomb gets the call.

Yes. I was corrected by MVP. The problem is, if we need him on the 26, and or want to delay adding Anthony, instead, then we may be faced with losing him from the system, if we no longer need him on the 26. I'm not sure we care about losing Thompson, though, but usually a team tries to keep as many options in the system as they can. Eaton does seem like an option that preserves everyone else's roster status, but is he good enough? Also, Eaton may have options, but once you add him to the 40, he has to stay on the 40, over someone else, even if he is sent back to AAA. We may need 3 or more slots on the 40, for the 3 kids and a pitcher or two.

I still think Devers can be a better 1Bman than Casas, but it's safer for him to DH. I agree on Yoshida, but in Fenway's LF, he could be passable.

Great post. IMO, our pen would be pretty damn good, if we had a lockdown closer, and every other RP'er was knocked down one role slot. Slaten, Hendriks & Chapman would make plus set-up men, and maybe only 2 have to be good. Whitlock pitches the 2 high leverage innings every third day. (Criswell offers nice depth for him.) When Crawford returns, he could be a nice boost (or Fitts/Priester) Wink, Weissert, Guerrero & Bernardino offer decent depth.

Plus the OF pretender, Yoshida?

It baffled me, how we tried to go with a group of migh-be's instead of a proven closer with recent success. Even David Robertson could have been a late signing who had a better chance than these guys. I like Slaten and Whitlock, but I'm not sure they are "closer types." We should not be in a situation where we have to go through 3-4 guys to MAYBE find one that works. (It worked with Uehara back in 2013, but it's not a good plan: I agree.)

That's how I see it. Kinda wonder if 2024 was a fluke for Criswell. His 1.1 fWAR in 99 IP is a higher fWAR per IP (.011) than ... Crawford 1.9 in 183.2 IP (.010) and pretty close to... Bello 2.0 in 162.1 (.012) Pivetta 2.0 in 145.2 (.014)

Maybe we end up with the other guy.That being said, I'm kinda looking forward to seeing how Marvaez does.

He was really bad in 2021 and 2022, so one could say he has improved over those years. To me BB% is a better measure than BB/9. Career 12.6% 8.9% in'20 15.6 in '21 17.5 in '22 14.5 in '23 14.7 in '24 Man, those are some awful numbers. That being said, Hendriks has not pitched in so long, and looks terrible, now. I might start 2025 w Chapman and have Slaten or Whitlock as the back-ups.

4.5 BB/9 before 2022 5.6 BB/9 2022-2024 (5.7 in 2024.) BB% 11.9 % 2010-2021 15.3% 2022-2024

What made it worse was that after his -1.4 fWAR in 2 seasons with BOS, he posted a +0.4 fWAR over the next 3 seasons, combined, including +1.3 from '18-'19, when back with SF..

Sale was not damaged goods, when we got him. He led the league in IP year one, but yes, he got injured, often afterwards.

213 ABs likely was a DNQ for KC. On the MiLB website, it shows Teel as the leader. He had 325 ABs (382 PAs). Mayer had 335 and KC 255. My guess is the qualifying mark was between 336 and 382.

True, but.... Story was damaged goods, when we got him. Some felt Gio was, too. O'Neal had his second highest career PA total in his only year with Boston. Justin Turner had a career high PA total with BOS (16 yrs in MLB.) Pivetta had 4 of his top 5 IP seasons with BOS. Maybe we tend to remember the bad more than the good, but it does seem like the injury bug strikes Sox players more than other teams, except maybe the Yanks, but they seem to seek older and injury prone players more than we do.

I fixed it for you.

Mayer was not even leading the Sea Dogs in batting, unless you set the ABs to over 213. .362 Campbell in 213 ABs .307 Mayer in 300 ABs 2024 across all levels (300+ ABs): .330 Campbell .328 Gasper (gone) .309 Arias .307 Mayer .293 Meidroth (gone) .291 Anthony .288 Teel (gone) OPS Leaders .997 Campbell .970 Gasper .896 Arias .894 Anthony .892 Jh Garcia .850 Mayer .840 B Gonzalez .838 Meidroth .835 Sogard .821 Romero

Story should still be a plus defender at SS for a few more years, even if his arm is weakening or getting less accurate. I'm not sure Mayer is a better defender, now, and until he is, I'm keeping Story at SS, when healthy, and assuming he's not falling apart. I think Mayer could be a decent SS, now, and maybe would be better at 3B than 2B, but he should be fine at either, when that time comes. Campbell looks like he should be our 2Bman, but he may end up in the OF, but that choice is for later on, once we see how Story looks, and who looks ready first: Campbell or Mayer. Bregman at 3B vs 2B is also a side issue, but I think we keep him at 3B for as long as he is with us. If everyone is doing well and healthy, and the kids have proven they deserve a FT shot, the only way I see them all playing is with campbell in the OF, but that could be a long time coming, and everyone healthy is a big if. Maybe this: DH: Devers C: Wong/Narvaez 1B: Casas 2B: Mayer SS: Story 3B: Bregman LF: Campbell CF: Duran RF: Abreu/Refsnyder or Anthony Rafaela as the supersub Others on bench: Yoshida and DHam

Agreed. Newcomb may get the next call, ahead of Criswell and Dobbins, but he'll have to be added to the 40, first, so maybe even that will not happen. They may be saving those 60 Day IL additions for 2-3 of our top prospects to be added, at some point.

With Story's health issues, we should not trade a middle IF'er names Story, Mayer, Campbell or DHam... probably Romy, too. With Grissom's stock being so low, I would not trade him, now, either. Let's get our middle IF set, before we start trading off any extras.

Good article. I will add that Refsnyder has been mashing lefties for 3 years, not just 2024. .941 in 126 PAs in 2024 .828 in 145 PAs in '23 1.005 in 73 PAs in '22 (.889 from '22 to '23 was 20th best in MLB w 218+ PAs) Refsnyder's .910 OPS vs LHPs from '22-'24 is 13th best in MLB, among players with 360+ PAs. I'm not sure Abreu deserves a chance to try and top that, GG D and all. He has to show he can hit lefties in games where teh starter is removed and facing a lefty, or when Ref is out injured or DH'ing. Refsnyder HAS TO START vs LHPs! I'd prefer DH, but Devers has that spot. I'd prefer LF, in Fenway, over RF, but I guess they don't want to move Rafeal to RF vs LHPs. So be it. To me, Abreu will be platooned. Ref will start vs all LHPs, when healthy. He should not be 128th in MLB in PAs vs LHPs since 2022. Granted, he was largely unknown in '22, and he has had some injury issues, but he needs to be in the line-up vs lefties. Our team has sucked vs lefties for way too long.

He did have a very nice stretch, but he's had some bad ones, too, and his minor league numbers have not been great, except the SBs. .799 in AAA (489 PAs) .739 in AA (681) .773 in A+ (309) .766 all levels in minors (1479) I'd really like to see him get a good long look in 2025. That stretch in 2024 was very nice, and that included his 2B defense. Hamilton in MLB .513 first 93 PAs in MLB (2023 to 5/14/24) .787 middle 165 PAs (5/15/24 to 7/7/24) .613 last 102 PAs (7/8/24 to 8/28/24) His first 93 PAs plus his last 102 PAs (195 PAs) are a combined larger sample size than the middle 165 PAs. I also really like Campbell. I'd love to see him make the opening day roster as our starting 2Bman. It's a tough call, to me. I think we start the year w DHam and try and get Campbell that extra year of control. (That's not saying I agree.)

That's 5 players for 4 slots.

He has looked real good, but the sample sizes of these three range from 6.2 IP (Criswell) to 9.2 IP (Newcomb & Priester.)

MVP says Thompson signed a minor league deal, do he should not need to be DFA's to play in AAA, unless and until we add him to the 40.