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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, I agree on the lack of any true outstanding stars on the team, although Bregman would be top 10-15, had he not gotten hurt. Crochet is top 5 in pitching, but that's it. We have the top closer, so maybe 3 of the top players in MLB. That's a far cry from 2004, 2007 and 2018 but maybe not 2013. This team does have more balance than just about every other team in MLB. Calling it mediocrity is fine, but not having as many sucking players as other teams is a good thing, too. Since Devers is no longer here, Campbell is in AAA and Toro is benched, our top 9 batters are ALL ABOVE the MLB OPS of .719: (listed by most PAs) .792 Duran .729 Story (very slow start) .721 Rafaela .811 Abreu .721 Narvaez .926 Bregman .835 Anthony (will likely lead the team in PAs after 8/20) .845 Romy .827 Refsnyder One is a catcher, so we can construct a line-up with all 9 playing, once Ref comes off the IL. When you look at our top IP Pitchers and take away Dobbins, Houck & Newcomb, our top 11 pitchers are all below a 3.63 ERA, except Buehler (5.43) and Fitts (4.83 and now in AAA.) 2.43 Crochet 3.23 Bello 3.63 Giolito 5.43 Buehler (maybe replaced by 2.87 D May, for the playoffs) 2.86 Whitlock 3.16 Weissert 1.15 Chapman (Uehara type numbers! 3.09 Bernardino 4.83 Fitts (in AAA) 2.61 Wilson 3.47 Slaten On paper, we have very few obvious weak players. 1B: maybe Lowe redeems 2B: gonna need Romy and rafaela to shine, here SP5: Buehler (May to #4) Deep pen: fill in the blank
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Agreed. We had been "fluked" a few times over the past few decades, before 2013. I think if the 2013 team can win a ring, this team has a shot. That team was 74-54 on August 20th. Before the year started, not many people expected to see these numbers: The top 9 batters by PAs all over .749 and Carp at .913 & Iggy at .785. On August 20th, our two top IP guys had these numbers: 4.09 Lester 4.77 Dempster
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I agree. I think we have to add a right-side infielder, this winter. I still have a #2 SP and closer as a higher priority, but we should be able to fill 3 roles plus some added pen help. We should be able to trade an OF'er to fix one of the 3 big holes, so we only need to fill 2 major slots via free agency. We just lost the Devers contract and will lose Buehler's, Chapman's, Wilson's, Hendriks' & Ref's, plus maybe Gio's. (I'm assuming Bregman comes back or my list grow by one major get needed.)
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I do think it's okay to strive for "just capable" at a few positions, as long as a few other factors are in place: 1. You have depth at that position. 2. You are plus at almost all other 26 slots. 3. You are plus-plus at enough positions to make up for any unforeseeable or seeable pitfalls. One thing about this team is its balance, but we tend to lack enough top players to make us a top contender. Just about every team has positions where they are actually not capable and even bad or horrible. Here are just a few I found on the top 4 teams in MLB. (BTW, CHC is #5, LAD is #6 & SDP is #7. Those teams were once thought to be top 4.) MIL: SS position bats .608 & 2B .637. Out of their top 10 batters by PAs, only 2 are over .786 and none are over .830. DET has a pretty balanced offense, but 5 positions are below the league .719 OPS: .649 at 3B, .652 CF, .707 SS, .713 C and ,714 DH. Is 5 less than capable positions enough to have the best AL record? YES! They also have 2 of their top 4 IP guys over 4.50. PHI has 4 of their top 10 batters under .710. Luzardo is at 4.21 and Nola at 6.92. TOR has 3 of their top 10 batters under .669 and some sketchy pitchers.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Yanks almost blew their game to the worst team in MLB over the last few weeks- the Rays. They let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, after having a perfect game going through 6 IP. Some other contenders lost. SEA is 1.5 GB HOU, who is reeling. (HOU is one up on us.) WC 69-57 NYY 68-59 BOS 68-60 SEA -2.5 KCR (-3 from BOS) -3.0 CLE (-3.5 BOS) I'm calling TEX, LAA & TBR out of it, until they have a streak or something. -
I think the Sox will look at all these options and think it's likely we end up with a capable 1Bman and 2Bman... 1B: Casas, Lowe, Campbell, Jh Garcia & Romy 2B: Mayer, Romy, Campbell, DHam/Grissom & Arias getting closer to pushing Story to 2B This does look better, to me, than how these two slots looked last winter, but back then, I had dreams of Devers at 1B and Casas at DH or traded for Castillo. We have the top priorities of keeping Bregman and Chapman or replacing one or both, in kind. I still put SP'er as the next highest priority- above 1B & 2B, and maybe even pen depth is more important, too. Maybe signing Luis Arraez could help 1B & 2B, but I'm not sure he's really a 2B option, despite being just 28 years old. He also has no power, and we need more of that.
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It's out of style. No more "wasted ABs," just let everyone swing away and away and away.
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Here is a look at the Red Sox Players controlled through the 2026 season and what the foundation looks like before any additions (or subtractions) are made. No more control: Buehler, Chapman, Wilson, Refsnyder, May, Matz & Hendriks SP: Crochet, Bello, Giolito (140 IP option trigger,) Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Harrison, Fitts, Criswell, Perales & Houck (to be added to 60 Day IL once the season begins) RP: Slaten, Whitlock, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Hicks, Guerrero, Murphy, Moran, Kelly, Sandlin (R5,) Mullins (R5,) Paez (R5) C: Wong & Narvaez 1B: Casas & Lowe (Toro traded/nontendered?) 2B: Mayer, Romy & DHam (Grissom traded/nontendered?) SS: Story & Sogard 3B: Bregman (option/extension? or Mayer) LF: Duran & Garcia CF: Rafaela (Eaton traded/nontendered) RF: Anthony & Abreu DH: Campbell & Yoshida Of course, the whole off season starts with the Bregman decision and how we deal with Chapman and the closer opening, but after those choices, we still have some significant needs. I prioritize them as such: Assuming Bregman & Chapman return... 1. A solid #2 type SP'er (like Joe Ryan) even if Gio returns. 2. Pen depth (better than Wilson, Matz and the likes of Hicks) 3. 2B (can't count on Mayer) 4. 1B (can't count on Casas & Lowe) In my opinion, we will end up trading an OF'er, most likely Duran, due to higher cost and lower years of control than the others, along with some prospects for Joe Ryan or maybe Mitch Keller. The cost of FA SP'ers is just too high, these days. Then, sign Caros Estevez (RP) Luis Arraez (1B/2B) and Dustin May (SP) The 26 could look like this: 1. Arraez 1B (2B) 2. Anthony LF/RF 3. Story SS 4. Bregman 3B 5. Abreu/Garcia RF 6. Casas/Garcia/Romy DH 7. Mayer 2B/Romy 2B/1B 8. Narvaez C (Wong) 9. Rafaela CF SP: Crochet, Ryan, Giolito, Bello, Sandoval/May/Dobbins/Crawford/Fitts RP: Chapman, Estevez, Slaten, Whitlock, Harrison, Bernardino, Murphy, Moran, Guerrero, Kelly, Hicks
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Sample sizes can be deceiving, and this one may be more so that the recent 10 game one, but here are the best records since June 30th: 32-10 MIL 29-15 TOR 27-15 BOS 26-16 KCR 25-19 SEA 25-18 SDP 24-19 CLE Other notables: 23-20 BAL 22-21 DET 21-22 TEX 20-22 NYY 19-23 HOU 19-21 NYM 19-22 LAD 14-28 TBR (worst) Since July 26th 18-3 MIL 23-15 DET & KCR 15-7 SDP 14-9 PHI & BAL 13-9 BOS Worst records since AUG 6: 2-10 TEX 3-10 CWS 4-10 MIA 4-9 PIT 4-8 BOS & SFG -
I agree, but I don't think he will ever get to be even okay on defense. I do wonder why his last month .580 doesn't carry as much weight as others you seem to think will repeat what they've done the last month over the next month. I doubt Casas will be the next Dalbec, but I guess it's possible. Casas .830 in first 840 PAs in MLB (ages 22-24) Dalbec .819 in first 545 PAs in MLB (ages 25-26) Both are horrible defenders. My worry is counting on Casas for 2026, but if we keep Lowe (1 more arb), I guess we might end up being okay.
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I'm not sure about "easier," but with practice maybe a little easier. It's not just getting the bunt down, but it has to be to the right place and not too hard or softly hit.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We have not been great on the road, so things look bleak, but I think this team has grit. I guess we'll find out. HOU, SEA and TOR already lost, today. NYY plays at TBR, tonight. We gain by not playing. -
His bad defense force the DH only thing, and we have to see Casas as the same situation. The injury risk for Casas is very high, and I think he can and will be a better bat going forward. I do not think Casas can ever get to average on 1B defense, so to me, Yoshida's value is further minimized by this. If Ref comes back, he should DH vs LHPs, making our DH a full platoon for one year. Writing off $18M x 2 is not easy. He does have options, so he could be Woo's DH, but why waste a 40 man slot for DH insurance? Maybe we can trade him and save a couple-three Million- maybe we just have to DFA him. I'd like our 26 and 40 man roster more with Jh Garcia on the 26 and almost anybody else on the 40.
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Because Brez & Co seem to think Casas will stay healthy for a full year. Bloom & Co. believed the same about Sale, until they didn't. They also have Lowe for one more arb, and he's better than Toro. Then, they have Campbell, who can work at 1B all winter long and Jh Garcia, who just played 1B, last night with Woo. Add Romy to the mix, shake well, and presto: no change will be made.
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Even as a DH, only, I want more. If he was making $1.5M, he'd probably be gone, already. Too many weak grounders to 2B for my liking.
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Good point. I've always hated buntin, unless by pitchers, but it does keep defenses honest.
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Maybe I'm overly pumped up about our farm. It seems very strange to see so many pitchers on the top of the lists, and then there is Perales, who has been in the system for forever, but might finally get a chance to show us his potential. I doubt he turns into a Mata, but he could easily be our best home grown pitcher in a decade or more. Right now, the list is... 1. Tolle 3. Perales 4. Witherspoon 6. Clarke 7. Valera (not bad for your 5th best pitching prospect!) 8. Early (might be some teams' #1 or 2 pitching prospect) 9. Sandlin (kinda dropping in my book) 15-18: Phillips, Eyanson, Paez, Fajardo 20-22: Uberstine & Mullins (26 and 24 y/os) 25 & 27: Delzine & Cason (17 & 19 y/o's) 26-31: Wehunt, Rivera, Holobetz & Monegro (22-24 y/o's) Also, Aita, Travieso, J Bello, Ingrassia, Foutch, Morgan and others...

