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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You do know the "eye test" pertains to actually watching games and players not watching numbers and data on a page. More LMAO. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Not sure why you are so fixated on the timing of my standings, but thanks for taking up my slack. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
How about this for the 2026 starting line-up? 1. L Duran DH 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu- R Refsnyder RF 4. L Devers 1B 5. L Anthony LF 6. R Narvaez C 7. L Mayer SS 8. R Campbell 2B 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: R Wong C, L DHam IF, R Romy IF, R Jh Garcia OF/1B or L Romero IF (Trade Story & Yoshida) Rotation: Crochet, F Valdez (32 y/o FA,) Sandoval, Houck, Fitts/Bello/Crawford/Dobbins -
Brez talked to the media, today. He seems as bummed as we are.
- 21 replies
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- roman anthony
- alex bregman
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Good points. Maybe give each SP'er 2 or 3 "step offs" and RP'ers one.
- 272 replies
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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One pitcher in just 2 back-to-back seasons pretty much sums it all up: Felix Hernandez: 2009: 19-5 2.49 (second in Cy Young Award) 2010: 13-12 2.27 (Cy Young Award) He also had one 200 IP season, with a 3.45 ERA & a 9-11 record. He led the league with a 2.14 ERA in 2014, but did not win the CYA, going 15-6 in 236 IP. The team went 22-12 in his starts. 7 of those losses were in gamed he let up 1-2 runs.
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Indeed, and Salem's is watchable, too. POR 1.55 Early (before today) .457 OPS against 2.05 Monegro .593 3.77 Sandlin ,657 3.58 Wehunt .691 3.63 Uberstine ,605 (before today) GRE 2.08 Rivera .385 3.86 Tolle .711 4.39 Carlson .807 4.94 A Smith .690 5.40 Valera 784 SAL 3.00 Vogatsky .656 3.44 Cohen .643 3.70 Aita .580 3.86 Sprague .656
- 7 replies
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- jojo ingrassia
- jedixson paez
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Woo lost 3-0. Penrod walked 2 of the first 4 batters and was yanked. Noda walked 3 times and got one of the 5 hits. Grissom 2B'd and Anthony and Jh garcia each had a hit and a BB. POR won the completion game, as The RP'er Anderson let up a hit that allowed 2 of early's runners to score, then went 3.1 scoreless. The Sea Dogs had 3 HRs. In game 2, POR is up 8-7 late. Mullins looked good, but Troye let up 6 runs in 0.2 IP. Jordan is 3-3 w a 2B and BB (.928) GRE is down 3-2. Brannon & Bleis w solo homers. Murphy is rehabbing (1.1 IP, 0H, oER, 2BB, 3K) FCL is playing better. Jo Garcia went 1-2 (1.099 in limited action.)
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And they don't ever say that.
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I'm sure most pitchers feel a lot better, when their teams wins in a game they started, even if they were not all that good, more than a game the team lost, despite him doing fairly well (or slightly better than in the game they won.) Of course, wins matter to a pitcher, and they like it more when they are assigned the win, and not some RP'er, who happened to be in the game, when the lead changed. When I look at how good a pitcher has done, when compared to others, I don't look at a team stat or result. I look at how well the guy pitched over a long enough period of time to have a strong opinion.
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Imagine, if we still had Nate and Nick... fWAR Leaders: 5th: Crochet & Nate at 2.2 13th: Pivetta at 1.7 Many of us wanted #11 Fried at 1.8, instead of Buehler at 0.3. Others mentioned, a lot, over this past winter: 1.7 Woo (some wanted Miller) 1.5 Severino, Joe Ryan and Mitch Keller 1.3 Cease, Ober and Wacha 1.1 Sonny Gray (for Yoshida? LOL) 1.0 Holmes (Sale is at 1.6) Matthew Boyd is at 1.2! Some we might not want to admit we liked: -0.2 Alcantara -0.1 Z Eflin (2023)
- 21 replies
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- roman anthony
- alex bregman
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The amount of 3 hour games has been reduced enormously. There is no doubt that pitchers are taking less time between throwing. Yes, some much less than they used to and others not so much or close to the same. It makes sense that less refresh time between pitches is a factor. I'm not sure how much refresh time is safe, and it may vary from person to person or hardly matter to some people. IMO, it made a difference. I'm not sure how much, and it could be coincidental that the rule change happened just at the time injuries appear to have sky-rocketed. I'm not sure it's a major reason, but I'm pretty sure it has made a difference, along with other things that have changed in recent years or over the last 1-2 decades.
- 272 replies
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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There is data to shows that the amount of refresh time between exertions is a factor in injuries. That can mean between pitches and between outings, which includes hard throwing sessions, not just appearances. Of course, throwing harder or twisting for wrist or arm to add more spin matters, too. Starting at an earlier age matters, as well. The throwing harder, throwing harder earlier in life and adding more spin are things that have gradually been increasing over the years. The one thing that happened, overnight, was the pitch clock, and the sudden rash of injuries that started immediately after the rule change does point to it being a significant factor. It's not ironclad proof, but it does seem likely it matters.
- 272 replies
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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This could be the main culprit, and I neglected to even mention it.
- 272 replies
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, that's why I added (5th or 6th innings.) -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
But, the great pitchers don't let up that grand slam in the 9th (or 5th and 6th, these days.) -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Wrong, again. There are also advantages to having a .400+ OBP up 2nd vs 4th, and that is why I don't have an issue with Cora batting Devers 2nd not 4th. My argument with you is over your continued insistence than Devers gets more RBI chances with Rafaela and DHam up before him over other better batters. It's not an argument against Cora. I'm pretty sure he knows the rbi situation, but values a high OBP from the 2 slot more. I have no beef with that. You still don't get it. Apparently, you never will. You can't even understand what the debate is about, let alone what position others hold. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We are 6 games away from the 40% mark on the season. We are 5 games past the 33% mark of the season (54 games.) Here are the fWAR and bWAR averages of our players still on the team: (FWAR, bWAR) 2.7 Bregman (2.4, 3.0) on IL 2.2 Devers (2.1, 2.3) Da MAN! 1.9 Narvaez (1.8, 1.9) WOW! 1.9 Abreu (1.6, 2.1) 1.6 Rafaela (1.2, 1.9) 1.2 Duran (1.1, 1.3) 0.6 Refsnyder (0.5, 0.7) 0.3 Romy (0.2, 0.3) 0.2 Toro (0.2, o.1) About a 0.0 KC (0.1, -0.3), Mayer (0.0, 0.1), DHam (-0.1, +o.2), Story (-0.2, +0.1) -0.2 Sogard (-0.3, -0.2) -0.7 Casas (-0.6, 0.9 is out for season) Pitchers: 2.3 Crochet 2.2, 2.4 0.9 Chapman 0.7, 1.1 0.5 Dobbins 0.8, 0.2 0.5 Wilson 0.5, 0.5 0.4 Whitlock 0.4, 0.3 0.4 Buehler 0.3, 0.4 0.4 Bernardino 0.3, 0.4 0.4 Weissert 0.2, 0.6 0.3 Slaten 0.5, 0.0 0.3 Fitts 0.2, 0.4 0.2 Bello 0.0, 0.4 0.2 Giolito 0.2, 0.1 about a 0.0: Wink , Guerrero, Burdi -0.2 Criswell -0.1, -0.3 and Hendriks -0.3 Kelly -1.0 Houck -0.4, -1.6 (FWAR had Newcomb at +0.5, but bWAR at -0.2) -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They award wins to SP'ers and RP'ers this way, too. It's never going to be 18, 20 or 22 wins, either. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Again, a wrong assumption. I fully know Cora is choosing to bat Devers second. Thinking I don't know this further exposes your total lack of understanding other poster's positions and opinions. I have said numerous times that these sort of line-up changes and suggested changes are minor issues, and the philosophy of batting your best hitter 2nd had a lot of merit. I'm not pissed at Cora for batting Devers second. I am arguing with your position on thinking Devers could not have more RBIs by batting 4th not 2nd. That's all this is. Also, our #2 slot is not a problem, at all. Not top 500, even. It's a plus, not a problem. The problem my opinion tries to address is the major issue with out 4 slot batter, all year. THIS YEAR, as you keep pointing to. What is the solution to that problem? We've tried many options, and all have failed. Now that Bregman is out, moving Devers to the 4 slot makes less sense, but maybe it coudl still be better than him batting 2nd. That's what this talk is about. Yes, it's based on speculation, perhaps the biggest being who will bat 2nd and 3rd, and how much better will theor OBPs be compared to Rafaela, DHam and whoever is projected to bat 8th and 9th going forward. (Note: one of our best 8/9 batters, Narvaez, may never bat 8th or 9th, again, this year.) I may disagree with Cora on this minor issue, but he's not telling the world that Devers could not possibly have more rbis b atting 4th, because he leads the league, now. That would be you. Again, you refuse to answer the simple question, as always.... Do you really believe having Rafaela, DHam and our other worst batters up in front of Devers gives him as many or more RBI chances than batters like Abreu, Refsnyder and Bregman (before he went down injured?) I don't expect a real answer,,, just further deflections and avoidances. -
I agree. I think the chance Cora gets promoted are higher than the chances he gets fired or put into a situation where he quits. I think other teams would jump at the opportunity to hire him as a manger or even a GM or assistant GM role. That being said, this team is really stuck in a rut. They lack many basic fundamentals, which is sometimes wrongly attributed to the manager and not years of unlearned skills, is part of this team's issues. Sometimes, a change in leadership gives a team the spark it needs to reach it's full potential, and it really has little to do with how good or bad the current manager is. Players get complacent, for whatever reason, and maybe a manger is partially of almost fully to blame, but it's hard to know for sure.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I have never been one to put much value in a SP'ers win total, and this was long before fangraphs. team wins are very important, but when I try to determine who is a really good pitcher, I have never thought assigned wins and losses are a major value. Sure, I moved away from ERA to ERA-, ERA+, SIERA, FIP, xFIP and xFIP- more and more. I moved away from WHIP towards OPS Against, K%-BB% and other "newer" stats and metrics, but my views on W's and L's have not changed much, at all. Wins matter a lot for a team, and I agree that some pitchers just seem to do what it takes to keep their team in more games than others, even if they have the same ERA as those "others." I don't totally discount W-L and win%, but to me wins and losses have so much to do with batting (run support) defense (fielding support) and other things like baserunning, managerial decisions and other things like park factors, strength of opponents and just plain luck (like catching a mediocre pitcher having a great night or a really bad night and timing.) I don't disagree that more and more people have turned away from looking almost exclusively at Wins, losses and ERA with maybe a little at WHIP and towards modern metrics to help them determine who are the ":better" pitchers, but I think fans have always looked beyond just traditional stats to try and adjust their idea of who is better. Often it was based more on eye test and just knowing this pitcher had better run support or defense that that other guy. Now, there is data to help us see the differences in a more objective and fact-based light- knowing full well that no metric is perfect. -
That makes sense. I'm not sure the RP'ing starts and stops have changed all that much in the past decade or two, and the extra roster slot, who is always a 13th pitcher, has helped mitigate the expanded IP'd by relievers, so I'm not sure this has affected them all that much. Sp'er treatment has changed radically: I agree. It seems counterintuitive to say not allowing pitchers to go longer into games is causing more injuries, but who knows? There is no denying more major injuries are happening to mostly SP'ers. The common reasons given seem to be based on these two issues: The asking them to apply a higher spin rate or add more velocity, because we will pitch you less, and assuming it evens out. The pitch clock that hurries their pitches one right after another. I'm not disagreeing with your point about babying pitchers might be part of the issue, but I do think that asking for more spin and or more velocity is the opposite of babying.
- 272 replies
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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