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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
From the master baiter. 🤣 -
Maybe. Career splits for Casas: .658 April .766 May .839 June 1.199 July .852 August .798 Sept Devers, not so much... .806 April .908 May .889 June 1.008 July .759 August .798 Sept
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But you can have a lack of quality at the expense of a quantity of mediocrity.
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Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Years of failure to get his K rate down. He's been in our system since 2018. That first year was one of his best K rate season (39/225) 31/188 '19 79/432 '21 (not horrible) 113/522 '22 103/485 '23 151/571 '24 MLB 12/62 in 2025- his best rate ever. For years, we read they were working on changing his free-swinging approach. You doubt that? -
He only played 8 games in 2023, so the Salem level is not a big issue, to me. Afterall, he's only 20. He's off to a good start, this year, so maybe he just needed time to adjust. At 20, there is still plenty of time and room for improvement. $1.1M is a lot, though. Here are the largest IFA bonuses handed out in recent years: 3.1 D Flores '17 RIP 1.6 D Diaz '17 1.5 Bleis '21 1.4 A Flores '17 1.4 Cespedes '23 1.4 D Soto '25 1.2 F de Leon '22 1.15 E Lopez '18 1.1 F Encarnacion '22 1.0 Asencio '24 .95 H Rivas '25 .90 Chacon '19 .85 Jo Garcia '22 & E Lira '21 We may have done better with... $525K Arias $500K Delzine '25 $450K Paez '21 & D Reyes '24 $400K Yuten '22 $250K Ju Gonzales '24 75K Perales '19 52K S Nunez '23 35K Monegro '19 30K Alcantara '22 28K Bello '17 10K Rafaela '17
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Soxprospects.com has updated scouting reports on Tolle, Tygart and Aita... https://news.soxprospects.com/2025/04/scouting-report-updates-payton-tolle.html
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Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yoshida has options, so there is reason to keep him in AAA as insurance to a Devers or OF injury. It's not like there is nobody else to DFA or put on the 60 Day IL to make room for Anthony, Mayer, Grandal or whoever else we might want or need added. We could even put Yoshida on the 60, retroactive. Maybe Crawford or Wong could go to the 60 and prolong a DFA or someone else. Sabol could be DFA'd for a Grandal addition. Sogard could be DFA'd or traded, so we could add Mayer or Anthony. Fulmer or Refsnyder could be traded to make room for someone, We already have too few everyday players on the 40. If it's Yoshi vs Sogard or Fulmer, I might hold onto hope Yoshi can return. He's not really a logjam in AAA, but if we never can work out a way for him to DH, I can see why we'd try to move on from him and his contract. I still wonder if some equal or worse contract is out there to swap with. We could also pitch in money and take back a big contract, too. We could add a blocked prospect (not a top one) to make it happen. If he can't ever play on the big club, why keep him around. The Devers at 1B idea has been tossed around for years, but something seems to be holding back that idea. -
Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I am surprised that someone finally got Rafaela to change his approach, after years of failure, but yes, change just for change sake is not always a good thing. Maybe, over time, he will further adjust and find a way to hit near .700. That's all he needs to do to be a significant plus CF'er. I've said the same about posters wishing Devers would change his approach: don't mess with success! -
Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Never said that, and if a top prospect was included with Yoshida in a trade, it would not be about dumping salary, it would be about getting an excellent player to play in a higher need area than the prospect plays. When I mentioned trading a prospect with Yoshi, I did not mean a top prospect, but rather a blocked one, or one we may not be able to Rule 5 protect, this winter.... not a top 8 or 9 prospect. -
Devers could and might prefer it to DH'ing. I have to wonder what the Casas trade value is, right now. It's likely not as low as some might think it is. 1. Duran CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Bregman 3B 4. Abreu RF/Story SS 5. Story SS/Refsnyder RF 6. Yoshida DH 7. Campbell 2B 8. Anthony LF 9. Wong/Narvaez/Grandal Bench: Catcher, Abreu/Refsnyder, Rafaela, Romy
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Woo won game 1 as Anthony hit 2 dingers.Criswell went 4 no hit innings (2 BB 4K) I campbell 2 no hit and Webb 1 no hit for the 7 inning no hitter. Romero is 3-3, so far.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I like this statement as a summary of where we are. I truly believe we are going in the right direction. It took longer than I hoped and expected. Mistakes were clearly made and discussed over and over. We stayed true to the farm building, all along. The highest prospect traded before the Crochet deal was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. We traded for way more prospects than we traded away. We got a late start on building up the staff, but some of DD's pitchers matured pretty well, and Bloom added a few helpful arms and promising pitching prospects while botching other things along the way. He also drafted well, and it was not just higher picks due to losing so much. Anthony was drafted w the ERod comp pick, and Campbell was the comp pick for losing Bogey. -
Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Agreed. It's too early to make a trade, until we know more about some situations. I will say one thing: any chance we have to trade Yoshida needs to be explored. I'd like to wait and see him build some value, but at whose expense? Devers needs to get hurt to give Yoshi DH time. LF seems ever more complicated. Even if we agree to move Rafaela to super utility, we still have Duran FT, Abreu-Refsnyder platoon and Anthony as better choices than an awful defensive guy like Yoshida. Campbell can play CF, too. He's not playing 1B. I'm thinking trade him for a $3-5M savings a year, or throw in a 2025 Rule 5 prospect we might not want to protect and get more salary relief. I've scoured the roster of other teams to find a salary swap that makes sense, but I found nothing. -
Last year, our rotation was off to a shockingly fantastic start to a season. This year, the pen, Crochet and 2-3 batters are carrying the team. Maybe it has to do with expectations, but I felt better about last year's 10-10 team than what I've watched, so far. It's still early, and I'm still confident the "on paper" improvement to the roster will translate to more wins, and maybe something special in October.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
No doubt, the roster construction has some serious issues among the everyday player side. Paying a DH $30M a year is not ideal. Paying $18M a year to someone else who is basically a DH only player only makes it worse. Paying $23M a year to a SS who hardly ever plays is a serious issue. None of this is on Breslow, not that this is what the talk is about, but I do think Brez is making the most out of those 3 cards handed to him. Bloom never had the guts to move Devers off 3B. Yoshida would still be the DH, if Bloom was still here. Story has to given the chance to stay healthy. The question about SS or 2B is out there- maybe 3B, but what else can Brez/Cora do, there? I'm glad we didn't trade Abreu as many of us suggested. I do wonder if sticking with Rafaela as the FT CF is a good idea, but I'm fine with waiting for Anthony's service time clock to tick. How can any GM or manager not stick with Duran? We did have a chance to move Casas, so that is fair game, but let's see who has the last word on his 2025 season. Campbell at 2B (and some CF) was the right choice, IMO. I'm pretty confident he will do very well. I'm pretty damn high on Anthony & Mayer, too. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's still too early to think a series is make or break, but this seems to be so, here. -
Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Some sort of trade almost has to happen to clear the multiple logjams we created. The Yoshi situation will likely end in a near total salary dump trade. Unless there is an injury, he has not place to play. DH is for Devers. LF is already overcrowded. Even if we take Yoshi out of the equation, we still have several jams: OF: Duran, Abreu (vs R only) Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder (v L only) and Campbell. (Y Rod & Jh Garcia down the road) Middle IF: Story, Campbell, Mayer, DHam/Romy/Grissom with Bregman as depth and Romero/Arias down the pike. I'm not for trading a top 3 prospect, but we could. If not, they will need a chance to show what they have, at some point, and it won't be while playing a utility role of less than 80% playing time. Now, trading guys like Grissom, DHam, Refsnyder or Rafaela could ease the jam a little, but not much, except for maybe Rafaela. The returns will not be earth-shattering, either. -
It could get ugly, and if it does, Bregman can just choose not to opt out and try again in '27.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Last year, our 2B position looked like this to start teh season: E Valdez Reyes Grissom, DHam Anyone who thinks this year's 2B situation is not just better, but pretty damn good is being overly critical or pessimistic. We had the worst defense at 3B in MLB- now we are top 5-10. "Same bad D?" I'll take Devers/Bregman over Devers/Yoshida 24/7/365. SS is still a question, as always, but I'm glad Mayer is near or at ML readiness. (BTW, Bogey has a .745 OPS w SDP and still is a minus on D.) I have no worries about the OF. Sure, Rafaela's O is in doubt, but we have Anthony, Refsnyder and Campbell in reserve. Abreu looks more "sure" now, than last April, when one poster complained about him "kicking the ball all over RF." Duran is off to a poor start after 20 games, and apparently, he's now an unknown and a worry. C : Wong, Narvaez, Grandal 1B: Casas, Romy (Devers?) 2B: Campbell, Mayer, DHam/Romy, Grissom (Bregman) 3B: Bregman, Devers, Mayer/Campbell/Story SS: Story, Mayer LF: Duran, Yoshi, Refsnyder (Anthony) CF: Rafaela (Duran, Anthony) RF: Abreu, Refsnyder (Rafaela, Anthony) DH: Devers (Yoshida/Refsnyder/Casas) This may not look like the best everyday player depth chart, but it's good enough for me. It's young. It's inexpensive, except for Story, Yoshi and Devers. Hardly anyone becomes a FA, soon, except Bregman & Refsnyder. The future of the pitching is what is at question. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I wasn't conceding the point that the MLB roster is not improved, just because I mentioned the farm. I have been talking improvement all winter long. I have claimed that the team improved or kept even the defense (on paper) at every position. I have claimed the offense should be better than the .500 team of 2024. I have claimed this is the deepest rotation depth I have ever seen on a Sox team and that the top 5-6 are damn good. (I mentioned we were the only team in MLB with 6 SP'ers projected with an fWAR or 1.1 or better.) I've blasted the pen choices, and might end up being wrong about it. We have a solid everyday player set-up with depth at every position, except Catcher and 1B (if Devers is out of 1B consideration.) I have not given up on Casas at 1B. MVP mentions he's never played a full season, which is correct, but he did "qualify" in 2023. Our 2B situation is easily in the best shape since Pedey was healthy, unless you count when Story played a half season there. Our SS position might be questionable, due to Story's health issues, but the guy who just criticized it, also projected a 4 fWAR for Story in 2025. We also have a national top prospect who plays SS. Bregman at 3B and Devers at DH are top 5 in MLB. Our OF is young, controlled and have already shown about enough to justify being optimistic. Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony/Campbell are way more than fine with me. There, was that enough of a rebuttal? I have zero concerns about our everyday situation, except catcher. The now and the future. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You think this team is worse, "on paper," than the past few years teams? No doubt, on the field, they have not looked very good. "Better" is a relative term, and I can understand thinking they look worse than 10-10, but it sounds like you are trying to have it both ways. For years, you always claim the record is all that matters. If that is true, then this team is better than '22, '23 and equal to '24, as of now. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The homegrown players were a vast improvement over the post Betts roster of 2020. The farm is leaps and bounds better. The Houck, Bello & Crawford trio, while not looking so good, right now, has been the best SP'er trio from in the system in a very long time. Guys like Whitlock, Slaten and a few other pen arms are nice, too.

