moonslav59

I'm okay with the two catchers we have. Just sign a capable catcher to a minor league deal. Look what ole Hieneman did this year! Why can't we find catchers like that?

Yes, fWAR rewards more and more playing time, and that does have serious value. Even if you think he's just a top 20 OF'er, there are 90 starting OF'ers in MLB, so that is nearly top 20% or the "A" level.

Yoshida was 29 when we signed him, I believe. Some of these guys are younger. IMO, we need 2 big bats, 1 big one if Breggie returns, and with a likely limited budget, we may need to think outside the box.

Another example on how the Sox end up with all the leftovers. NOT!

You have a point. Many pitchers have had one really good season and then not much else. Sandoval had one good year: 2.91 in '22 with a 3.09 FIP that hints at it not being lucky. He also pitched well in '21 and .23, but not great. 3.62/4.03 in '21 2.91/3.09 in '22 4.11/4.18 in '23 From May 1 to the end of 2023 and his injury, he had these numbers in 69 GS- a pretty significant sample size and more than a one year wonder. 3.53 ERA (122 ERA+) and a 3.72 FIP In the time frame of 2 full seasons plus May>Oct in '21... His 8.7 fWAR placed him 44th (350+ IP) His 93 ERA- placed him at #46, near Morton, Stroman, Quintana, Eflin and Nola. That 460 IP sample size is as large as or close to these Sox pitchers the last 3 seasons: 97 GS (543 IP) Bello 6.7 fWAR (99 ERA-) 68 GS (390 IP) Crawford 4.8 fWAR (105 ERA-) 64 GS (388 IP) Houck 5.5 fWAR (98 ERA-) His '21-'23: 8.7 fWAR &85 ERA- Sandoval: 69 GS (460 IP) 8.7 fWAR & 93 ERA- I think this supports at least giving him the benefit of doubt that he deserves a slot, unless he looks awful in ST'ing. Remember, Crawford is returning from an injury and missed season. Houck is out until 2027, Dobbins will likely start the season on the IL, and MVP is projecting Bello to miss time. Gio will be gone. I'm giving him a slot that is his to lose.

I get that, but that does not mean he won't be in '26. 28, 30 ands 28 GS'd in the past 3 seasons is not the sign of an injury prone pitcher. He also had 6 GS'd in the minors in the past 3 seasons in rehab, so basically, he's started 28, 31, 32.

Honestly, that looked like the Sox on the basepaths.

Still, the 13th best OF fWAR in MLB. Obvious regression, but still A- to B grade, to me.

I agree- player for player, except I give Duran a B. The missed time aspect kept the grades from being: A Anthony B+ Rafaela & Abreu B Duran & Refsnyder (close to B+)

These guys from Japan will likely be cheaper than the big boppers like Alonso and Schwarber- maybe even than Suarez. There is also more risk involved- see the Yoshida signing. We know JH likes cheap, so maybe we go that route.

I'm always for adding a SP'er near or at the top of the rotation. I've always disliked trying to upgrade the #5, but I do feel like adding a #2 SP'er is the second priority behind adding a big bat at corner IF or 2B. The third priority is adding a second bat at one of the positions not filled by the #1 priority get. (We'll roll the dice with Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS w Story to 2B and have Romy/Sogard/DHam as depth.)

Almost a "lock" to "NOT" be ready for Bello?

Most likely Dobbins, but I was trying to point out the max our farm starter depth could be.

The trade list might include: MN: Joe Ryan & Pablo Lopez PIT: M Keller MIA: Alcantara & Cabrera CIN: Lodolo & Singer STL: S Gray TBR: Rasmussen, Baz, Pepiot (RP Fairbanks/ 1B Y Diaz) KCR: Wacha, Lugo, Lorenzen WSH: M Gore BAL: D Kremer LAA: Kikuchi AZ? ERod, Burnes? TEX? Nate, deGrom?

CLE mighta made the playoffs with those two.

I think Mullins is the only real borderline Rule 5, and we can make room for him, too. I also think we will make a trade involving Duran and others, and if one is on the 40, that would free up another slot. 28 Locks/Keepers: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Bello, Sandoval, Early, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshida, Romy, Jh Garcia, Wong 9 Probable/Trade Bait/ No Big Deal Casas, DHam, Criswell, Winckowski, Moran, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sogard Rule 5: + 1 Sandlin (maybe Mullins) That's 38 or 39. We likely dont protect Mullins and keep Hicks, so we'd be at 39. 6 Borderline/Trade/Non Tender/DFA: Hicks, Lowe, Grissom, Eaton, de Leon, I Campbell Trade or DFA the last 4 or 5 names from these 6. (Kelly & Guerrero are borderline, when we sign FAs.)

I see Keller as a #3. Cease scares the bejesus out of me. Galeen, too. I'd rather roll the dice on a shorter deal with Merrill Kelly, despite his age. Ranger Suarez would be nice. I like your other trade ideas.

Many teams have 40 man roster decisions to make, including some bad teams. I don't know the depth of every team, but my guess is our "crunch" is no worse than most other teams, when you look at our projected 37-40 slots and add Sandlin.

If we assume the MLB rotation will be Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford and Dobbins (Houck on IL: Wink & Criswell in the pen), take a look how deep our farm rotation goes: AAA: Early, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales (Uberstine, de Leon, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey) AA: Holobetz, Mullins, Clarke, Paez, Aita (Wehunt, Dean, Rogers) A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson (Tygart, Neely, Foutch) A-: Travieso, J Bello, Patton, Ruiz, Morgan (Brown, Gartrell)

Derek Jeter's Defense (1500+ IP): 1995-2004 Last in DRA at -26. (Berroa was at -20 and the next guy at -15. The 4th and 5th worst added together was -25.) Then he got way worse and hurt his team by staying at SS: 2005-2014 Last in DRS at a staggering -136. (second was HRam at -74, 3rd at -66, 4th -54. 3rd and 4th together wasn't as bad as Jeter. 5th+6th+7th wasn't as bad.) Again, the guy was a big plus batter and team leader, but poor SS defense hurts a team's chances.

I think Narvaez is for real, and his defense alone makes him a plus. Although an injury and fatigue took it's toll, only 9 catchers had more PAs as a catcher than Carlos. Of the 15 catchers with 400+ PAs, only 9 had a higher OPS & wRC+. You have to set the PAs to 275 to get a sample size of 30 catchers (1 starter per team.) Only 12 of those 30 had a higher OPS than .732. For a rookie to place in the top 12-13 in most categories is pretty amazing and promising. He placed 12th if fWAR, too. Of course, the season could be an outlier, but I don't see any reason to think it was. He had decent power and OBPs in the minors, and he was known for good defense, all along. I'm not sure Wong's offense is this bad, nor was it as good as 2024. He's most likely a .625 to .675 back-up catcher who showed improved defense and improved numbers with the results of the pitchers who he caught. I wouldn't mind a better back-up, but I think we have higher priorities. Wong was basically Bello's Binky, and maybe it's no coincidence he had a major uptick from 2024 to 2025. Here are the OPS Against with Wong vs Narvaez and the sample sizes for each) Bello .643 w Wong (575 PAs) .790 w Narvaez (125) Crochet .597 w Wong (126) .620 w Crochet (688) Buehler .715 w Wong (95) .845 w Narvaez (413) Giolito .614 w Wong (78) ,696 w Narvaez (535) Dobbins .709 w Narvaez (197) .729 w Wong (59) Whitlock .528 w Narvaez (18) .581 w Wong (101) Weissert .509 w Wong (92) .729 w Narvaez (182) Chapman .319 w Wong (69) .365 w Narvaez (147) My Grades: A- Narvaez C- Wong

I read a rumor of Duran + prospects for Lodolo (soon to turn 28.) Lodolo has 2 arbs left, so one less year of control, so maybe the added prospects will not need to be top prospects. One has to worry if 2025 was an outlier for Lodolo, but he is trending up, while Duran downwards. His ERA+ went from 92 to 137, and his K/BB from 3.3 to 5.0. His FIP barely improved from 3.95 to 3.81. He is a lefty. Would you call him a projected #2 (top 31-60) SP'er?

With no additions, I'd guess... 1. Crochet 2. Bello 3. Sandoval 4. Crawford 5. Early 6. Harrison, 7. Dobbins (IL) 8. Tolle, 9. Perales (Fitts, Wink & Criswell in pen.)

I think Moran stays. We really don't have the roster crunch some think we do, and I also think we can make a 2 or 3 for one trade before Rule 5 day. Also, we may only protect Sandlin, so no but crunch. One crunch factor is that Houck needs to stay on the 40, until the season starts. You'd think the union would allow players to be placed on the 60 day IL right before the season to allow more players to earn MLB money, but I guess they end up earning it a few days later. They probably want to avoid teams using phantom 60 Day ILs to expand their 40 man rosters. I'm not so sure Wink gets DFA'd. He had some decent numbers for the Sox over multiple seasons. After his first season in 2022, he had a 2.1 bWAR in 172 IP. (3.51 ERA/ 124 ERA+/4.11 FIP) He might get traded but not DFA'd, IMO. I do think I Campbell gets DFA'd. Grissom will be traded or DFA'd. Eaton & de Leon might be, too. I wouldn't cry if Kelly or Guerrero is traded or cut loose. A lot depends on how many FAs we add. I'm hopeful we seek quality over quantity, and if we just add 2-3 FAs to the 40, we'll be fine. If it's 4-5, then heads must roll.

Last year I was high on Woo, and there was talk SEA was open to trading a pitcher. Castillo was the guy most rumored, but Miller was talked about. Now, that SEA's rotation has declined in strength, I'm not sure they trade Miller, unless they get a young pitching prospect back, they like more. I'd be afraid they know our prospects better than we do, and we'd get burned. I also worry a lot about Alcantara, and all his "upside value." I'd prefer we go the more safe route, but two things- nothing is safe (see the Gio is a horse idea) and "safe value" is way more expensive than speculative value. I really liked Ryan, but now I have doubts about him, too. Keller seems steady, but is aging and seems like a 3/4 and not the solid #2 I'm begging for.