moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, a DH. They sit on a bench all day and get up 4-5 times to walk to the plate, swing a piece of wood and, for Papi, jog to 1B every now and then. Yes, he takes a lot of batting practice, but it's not like even that is a "grind". I played baseball for over 20 years. I played 2B, CF and pitched. Then, I switched to softball. It was never close to a "grind". Obviously you don't know the meaning of the word "grind". Look, I'm fine with Papi deciding to retire. I never once even implied otherwise. My point was that the Sox should bend over backwards to try and make him feel welcome to return, even at a diminished part-time role, if needed. Of course, Papi might decide playing every other day is not desirable, and say no, but what's the harm in asking? In trying?
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He'd be worth $15M just to play 81 games (every other day). Actually, if he played every other day, he'd end up with 90-95 games. The guys a DH. I mean, how hard is that for a job- even at 42.
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I wouldn't be saddened to see Papi struggle next year. The risk-reward is too tantalizing to not at least try. Ultimately, it's up to him. I'd be fine with him leaving right after maybe his best season ever, but I'd always be thinking, what if... Remember all the clowns trying to claim Papi faked his age and is actually older than we think?
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People have lost sight of how big a talent Swihart is. I disagree. Thinking he's the best trade candidate does not mean we devalue him. We see his value as a catcher for another team as higher than his value to us as a LF'er. That's what makes trading him logical.
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Rodney is doing very well. Taking Upton's contract makes the return less. I think Shields is better than his numbers indicate, and he's much better than Kelly, Buch and others we've been throwing out there. It's not a great deal for us, but Rodney alone could put us over the top.
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I realize Jamie Shields is overpaid and aging, but I have to think he'd be better than what we are sending to the mound 2 out of every 5 games. I hate the fact that his contract would restrict us going forward, and maybe the Padres would pay part of his deal, but then we'd have to just send better and/or more prospects to get the deal done. I'm thinking of the chance for a possible blockbuster with the Padres. To Boston: Jamie Shields (Owed about $14M more this year plus $44M/2 or $58M/3 after 2016, so $58M/3 or $73M/4. 2-7 4.28 / 1.426 WHIP Melvin Upton (Owed about $10M more this year plus $16.5M next year.) .251/.312/.395/.706 Fernando Rodney (Owens about 1.3M this year plus $2M next year with $400K buyout.) 0.00 ERA in 20 IP with a 0.850 WHIP. Total cost: $86M to 93MM To SDP: Rusney Castillo $53M/5 (To offset some of Shields and Upton's deal) Joe Kdelly $1.7MM Blake Swihart $600K Rafael Devers $500K Henry Owens & Brian Hohnson $700K) Cash: $5M 2016, $6.5M 2017 and $8M 2018 Total cost: $67M The Padres save about $16M and get many more years of control at reasonable costs.
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I'd certainly try to lure Papi back for one more. Even if he declines by 33%, he'd still be going out on top.
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We don't have as much spending money as it looks. We are way over the luxury limit now, and even though the limit is expected to go up significantly next year, we still have to replace Koji, Taz and Papi. If we go over the limit again, the tax rate goes way up.
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Maybe when they slump, the pitchers will hit their stride.
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An argument could be made to have the killer B's 1-2-3: 1) Betts 2) Bogey 3) Bradley 4) Ortiz
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We currently have 6 guys on pace for about 20-45 HRs. HanRam's on pace for about 12, but one could imagine him reaching 20. As for teams that had 7? The 2003 Sox had 6 guys over 20 and Bill Mueller had 19.
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When you consider his horrendous start, Young has come on very strong in May. Here are the Sox OPS leaders over the last 28 days (not counting today): 1.273 Ortiz 1.202 JBJ 1.046 Bogey 1.026 Young .889 Betts .843 Ramirez .843 Shaw .839 Pedey .836 Swihart Wow, that's 9 guys over .839 for 4 weeks!
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While Miller also had 3 years of team control his years were all arb years ($4+M this year), Teheran's contract should change the return.
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I'm not sure any Sox catcher can catch Wright's knuckleball, and I think Hanigan is just in a slump. Hanigan was one of our best hitters vs LHPs last year.
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Well, there is a bit of history on my side, but hoping isn't far from the truth. He's had 3 really good seasons out of the 6 prior to this year, although 2 ere with only 16 and 18 GS'd. When he's on, he can be phenomenal. Since 1972, there have been 5305 instances of SP'ers having 100+ iP in a season. The best ERA- seasons in those 45 years are as follows: 35 Pedro (2000) 37 Maddux (1994) 39 Maddux (1995) 41 Rogers (1973) 42 Buchholz (2013) 42 Pedro (1999) ... 32) 54 Buchholz (2010) Even his 2015 ERA- of 77 ranks 635th out of 5305 which places that season in the top 12% of all samples in that 45 year span. 3 seasons in the top 12% in the last 6 seasons is nothing to ignore. His two greatest seasons place him in the top .6% or best 6 out of every 1,000 seasons. Yeah, I guess I'm hoping he can come close to those numbers this year, but it's not like one can argue 2 or 3 seasons are a fluke.
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MLBTR has come out with a new series called "Top 10 Trade Candidates". There's a couple interesting names in terms of the Sox needs: 6) Arodys Vizcaino (25y/o) RP'er ATL- 2 arb years left after 2016 9) Julio Teheran (25 y/o SP'er ATL- after this year is owed $26.3M/3 or $37.3M/4. ($5.4M luxury tax cost- a big plus for the Sox but not the Braves) What would it take to get both of these guys? Would you offer 3 from Swihart, Devers, Basabe, Kopech or Lakins? If so, which 3? Or is there another offer they may prefer?
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Buch has had many ups and downs over his career, so I'm thinking maybe he'll get it together before the year is over and hit a good stretch. It's a gut feeling not based on any numbers.
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Updated Sox OPS leaders after 5/31/16 game: 1.132 Ortiz 1.010 Bradley .917 Bogey .866 Shaw .858 Pedroia .847 Betts .830 Rutledge .788 Young .771 Ramirez .712 Swihart .664 Holt .603 Vazquez .476 Hanigan
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Are long term, big money contracts worth it?
moonslav59 replied to StephenCurry30's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
On the old BDC site, I did an analysis of all the biggest FA signings over the last several years. It wasn't pretty. -
He might be 3rd place after tomorrow night!
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Thanks, emp. Yes, my intention was to have a thread that focused on realistic comments about just the Sox. Not politics. Not trolling. Not personal attacks. Not let's trade Craig and Pablo for Sale.
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More of a higher love for Basabe. I'm still high on Devers. I thought my Hernandez ranking was the most out of line.
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He will end up with an OPS in the top 3 Sox. 4th at worst. I'll guess around .845.
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It doesn't bother me at all that Buch was upset about being demoted. He has a lot of pride and has done very well as a SP'er over his career-when healthy. Sure, in theory, it would be nice for him to publicly fess up and admit he's been terrible, but I think deep down he knows it, and the team doesn't need him whimpering like a scarred puppy to preserve team chemistry. I still feel Buch will bounce back and be a major factor in our championship run this year. I would not waive him, unless we have a deal in place for a SP'er and we need budget space (unlikely).
