moonslav59

I actually think Moncada is already ML ready on offense or at least very very close. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's why I'd like to see him taking reps at 3B or LF sooner rather than later.

It may come down to Moncada at 3B and Shaw/Pablo/HanRam at 1b/DH. Or, Shaw/Pablo at 3B and Shaw/HanRam at 1B with someone at DH. If Shaw and Pablo are better defensively at 3B than Moncada, why would we DH Pablo and Shaw so we can play Moncada at 3B?

He's dumped a lot of players right before they s*** the bed. I like his philosophy of developing closers and selling high.

I've been advocating giving Moncada some reps in practice at 3B or LF sooner rather than later. From what I hear, he might be "athletic" but he's not even a plus fielder at 2B after years of playing there. I doubt he turns into a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, Pablo, Hernandez and others after one winter learning that new position. I carefully stated that I think we may see Moncada at DH quite a bit, UNTIL he learns a new position well enough to be a plus (or better than who we have at DH in his stead). It's not my ideal landing spot for him, but the Sox seem to be slow moving Moncada to 3B or LF, so I think DH might be is starting point in the bigs.

Too risky to extend for more than 1 year at $8-10M.

I think Beane has a different view on the value of the people he gets back in trades. He doesn't think he's selling low, but often the experts bash his trades, and hindsight has not shown him to be a great trader.

I'm not sure an injury-related poor 2016 performance has affected the stock price all that much. The A's will still demand a king's ransom in return.

I'm sure the thought process would be that the expectation is would continue pitching like his larger sample size pre-2016 than his most recent smaller sample size. I'm not sure I want Gray as much as I did earlier.

Good points all around. I'm not a big advocate to acquire a big bat this winter. I think we'll need to spend all available resources (money and prospects) on pitching. I'd be okay with a HanRam/Moncada/Pablo/Shaw rotation at DH next year. Yeah, HanRam lacks the power usually associated with the DH position, but right now, HanRam's .801 OPS places him about in the middle of DHs. As far as team DH numbers, .801 would place 7th out of 16 AL teams. Now, who knows what HanRam's OPS will be next year. I never wanted HanRam to start with and last winter I caught flack for suggesting I'd trade HanRam in a second, even if he had a .900 season in 2016. I still feel that way. I thing there is a significant chance he repeats a season like 2015 in 2017. I'm super high on Moncada- not to the extent of thinking he can come close to replacing Papi all by himself, but between him and Benintendi and the expected age-related improvements of other players, I think our offense will remain top 3 or 4 in MLB. If we don't replace Papi with a vet, we will have a very young starting line-up. Only Pedey, Young and HanRam are on the wrong side of prime. It may be wishful thinking, but I really think we'll be fine on offense and defense next year due to the infusion of youth from Moncada and Beni. Think about this core: Age 21 Moncada 22 Benintendi 23 Betts 23 Bogey 26 Bradley plus... 18 Espinoza 19 Devers 19 Basabe 20 Kopech 20 Chavis 22 Travis 23 ERod 24 Swihart 25 Vazquez 26 Barnes 26 Smith 26 Shaw 27 Porcello 27 Hembree 27 Leon

I won't argue placing Chavis over Dubon, but I see Moncada and Devers as blocking Chavis at 3B and 1B for many years to come. Bogey has less years of team control at SS, so we may need to keep our longterm SS options open. I'm not high on Marrero anymore. I like Hernandez a lot, but I'd like more options than just him. I realize Dubon's stock could fall, but if he works out well, and Bogey extends, we can easily trade a top SS prospect later rather than sooner.

So, what's the issue with trading redundancy here? It's almost a necessity to trade one or two just to create balance on the 40 man roster next year. I'm fine with trading HanRam while his stock has risen, and I've never been a big Sandy supporter. I've also held deep concerns about Shaw while others here were anointing him our long-term 3B/1B solution, however, I have high hopes for Moncada at 3B, but he may have to start at DH until he learns the position. I also think one or two of the players listed will produce enough to be a plus at their position, even if as a platoon. The hard part is picking the right ones.

Agreed. And, I trust our scouts more than I trust my opinion that is based on looking at numbers and scouting reports. If they liked Pomeranz even before this year's successes, then my opinion would change on him.

Good point. I'd have minor concerns about anyone, but with Pomeranz, my lack of knowledge about his skillset and his limited sample size of success makes my concern level very high. I can't name anyone known to be available that I want right now. Last winter I focused a lot of attention on trade suggestions targeting Quintana, Salazar and Carrasco, but there's no evidence any of them were seriously "on the block". Guys like Kluber, Sale and Gray would have cost more than what I wanted to give, but I was willing to overpay for someone like them. Now, Quintana and Carrasco's stock has risen, so I doubt that even if they were put on the block, we could get one without giving up Betts, Bogey, JBJ or Moncada (or 2). I realizE my dream may be futile, but I do not want to give up our whole farm or a major fraction of it to get someone I have significant concerns about.

I think the off season is the best time to build up a rotation, and I said as much last winter. Getting Price was a major get despite the risk attached to signing big-named FAs. The history of success on big signings is not good at all. I thought we needed to add another solid and dependable SP'er last winter, when the price is usually lower and the availability of choices is higher. I suggested several offers last winter that included several highly rated prospects and players. Some of those players were traded for a closer not a starter, but I still think at some point (maybe next winter), we can get a very solid SP'er for Swihart, Devers, Kopech, plus maybe one from Travis, Owens, Johnson, TBall, Holt, Marrero, Dubon, Chavis or Hernandez. Use the avialble budget space to shore up the pen and maybe sign a #4 slot SP'er and I think we'll be fine next year. There may even be enough money to sign Encarnacion as well, if we can trade for a lower cost SP'er at some point between now and 2017.

I hate cherry-picking one instance to try and prove a point, but back in 2004, Derek Lowe was our 4/5 slot SP'er and he played a big role in winning our first championship in 86 years. The days off during the playoffs used to be plentiful enough that teams never used a 5th starter and rarely needed a 4th starter. That's not true anymore, especially for wildcard play-in teams. Depending on how you need to use your starters to end a season, 4th starters may end up starting more playoff games than a 1-2-3 starter.

It's not essential to have an ace either, but we're talking about improving our odds of winning. To me, the best way to improve a team is by upgrading your weakest links, and clearly our 4/5 starters are that. My other long-standing philosophy is to try not to rebuild a rotation from the bottom or middle, but to try to add a starter to the top of your rotation (1,2 or solid #3 SP'er) and let the rest of your rotation be knocked down a notch. I realize this is a costly adventure, and I'm willing to part with some very good young players and prospects to make it happen, but I'm not for overpaying out of desperation for marginal players, good players with limited hopes of upside potential, or players with limited sample sizes of success at the professional level.

With Papi's pending retirement and a luxury tax budget squeeze likely next year, I think we may really benefit from having both Moncada and Benintendi stick around. Having low cost contributors allow us to overpay in other areas. I understand the argument on redundancy. Even with Papi's retirement, we should have all these players fighting for 3 slots: 3B, 1B and DH: Ramirez Shaw Sandoval Moncada Hernandez Travis Holt Rutledge Marrero We could also see a slew of players fighting for the LF slot next year: Young Benintendi Swihart Holt Moncada Castillo The thought is, we don't need that many players for limited open slots, so trading one hurts less than trading from another area of less quality depth.

I'm not against giving to get. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers, Kopech and others for the right guy. What worries me about Pomeranz is that his sample size of greatness is only the 17 GS'd in 2016. He was pretty good in the minors, but not great. He's played parts of several ML seasons and never wow'd anyone to the extent that he won and kept a rotation slot on teams that have not been all that good for the 6 years he's been in the bigs. He's pitched in pitcher parks the last 3 seasons. Am I the only guy that is concerned about that? I feel like we are looking at Teheran and Pomeranz, because they are available, and we're trying to project greatness onto one of them due to our great need for a quality starter. I'm not saying Pomeranz isn't the real deal. I'm no expert on Padre prospects or players. I think he was rated as high as 30th at one point. If Sox scouts think he has #2 quality, I think the 2.3 years of control make him a worthy target. I realize we will have to overpay for anyone we get at the deadline, and I'm fine with that. I guess I just don't know enough about Pomeranz to be all on board with choosing him as the object of the overpay.

I agree that the cost to acquire any decent SP'er will be higher than I'd agree to trade, but I don't see this roster as being a top 3 or 4 contender, which I think you have to be to have a legitimate shot at winning it all. Our offense and defense are more than fine, but now our pen is not the big plus it was before Kimbrel's injury. Our 4/5 slot starters are horrible to a legendary level. I think their combined ERA is still over 7.00! This area alone takes so much away from our pluses in other areas that to "win now" probably means we need to make at least one decent pitching acquisition.

I tend to agree, but it's not a sure bet. I think we need at least a solid 3/4 slot pitcher and RP'er to improve our odds enough for me to feel comfortable. Kimbrel may not come back or come back strong, and contrary to popular beliefs, a 4th starter is needed in the playoffs.

I'm afraid the return cost will outweigh the benefits on Pomeranz. I'm also concerned about his small sample size of success translating to a longer term success in the AL East.

I like Basabe first and Dubon next. Bogey will be FA eligible sooner than we want. Marrero has lost his luster. I'm big on Hernandez, but I'd like to keep SS depth.

I'd like to have Hill, but I share your concern. I'd hate to lose even Chavis or Basabe then watch Hill stay on the DL. I know the A's would never agree, but my biggest offer would be Owens and Johnson for Hill.

Yes, Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax budget, but I believe we were over the tax this year by more than Castillo's $11M hit. It's not as simple as replacing this guys salary with another. We have some arbs going up.

I realize projecting prospects to greatness is never 100%, and neither is projecting vets, but I love the idea of an OF of Beni, JBJ and Betts with Young giving us great depth for 2017. Maybe Basabe or Moncada may give us depth beyond 2017. I love the idea of having Moncada at 3B, Bogey at SS, Pedey at 2B and Shaw/Ramirez/Pablo/Travis sharing 1B/DH duties. Shaw can cover 3B and Moncada may DH some to start as he learns a new position. I'm confident Vaz will be a plus catcher by 2017. Having Hanigan and Leon in reserve is not as great as having Swihart in the mix, but we have to give to get.