moonslav59

They can't force him to weight checks, but I think there is a winter physical that all players have. I think, if we check on him frequently, at least he knows we're concerned. Whether he lets us weigh him every few weeks is another question.

I totally agree, and it seems like this analysis is simple enough for them to figure it out and stop the "over swing" in its tracks every time it starts to happen.

Well, it depends on what we can get for Holt and what that plus brings us compared to having Hernandez in the IF and Swi in the OF. Also, having 3 catchers would allow us to PH freely for one late in games, knowing we have the third guy in case ofan in-game injury to the 2nd. With Vaz hovering around .600, that could be a big plus.

Curt Schilling's last contract with the Sox had $2M in weight incentives.

I found this from 2013... If you watched the World Series or really any Tigers games last season, then you probably noticed that Delmon Young was a little on the portly side. Maybe not all the way fat, but a little chunky. Considering he once looked like this, I'd say the extra weight was noticeable. The Phillies sure took notice. They put six weight clauses in the outfielder's new one-year contract, according to Dan Gelston of the Associated Press...

Offense: Swihart: .702 A (age 20) 378 PAs) .794 A+ (age 21) 422 PAs .843 AA (age 22-23) 387 PAs .675 AAA (age 23-24) 273 PAs (mostly after his MLB stint in 2015) .714 MLB (age 23-24) 383 PAs (mostly at age 23) Vazquez: .782 A (age 19-20) 743 PAs .756 A+ (age 21) 342 PAs .731 AA (age 21-22) 481 PAs .715 AAA (age 23-25) 445 PAs (171 after MLB stint in 2014) .602 MLB (age 23 & 25) 385 PAs (most at age 23) First, one notices that Vaz got more PAs at just about every level. Second, Vaz was slightly younger at the earlier farm levels. Third, Vaz had a better OPS at A and AAA, but he was worse at A+ and AA. They both got most of their MLB PAs at age 23, and Swihart has a .112 OPS advantage in almost identical sample sizes, although 383 & 385 PAs is rather small to judge either one. Vaz has a MLB OPS .132 below his overall minor league OPS of .734. Swi has a MLB OPS just .044 below his minor league OPS of .758. It's hard to project these two going forward, but looking at their minor league numbers, one might think Vaz might close the gap on offense to some extent, so even if Swihart closes the gap on defense, Vaz may still stay ahead of him overall.

There's a few ways we might carry all 3 catchers: 1) An OF'er gets hurt, so Swihart/Young become our LF platoon. 2) JBJ is traded and Beni moves to CF (see above platoon). 3) We trade away Holt, so we have no 5th OF'er.

Makes you wonder, if they're checking his weight (more often) this winter.

JBJ has certainly become more consistent, but I think it's still fair to say he's streaky. I'm fine with not counting his first two seasons as a bad "streak", since he was perhaps just adjusting to the bigs, but when he came up in 2015, here's what he's done. It's easy to look at month by month stats to show he's not been that "streaky", but a closer look gives some evidence that he has been. He started his 2015 MLB season going 5 for 46 (May to June) with 1 HR. That's .109 and horrible. He then started August 0 for 13, so that was a start of 5 for 59 for an .085 start. He then went on one of the hottest streaks I've ever seen a Sox player have. He finished August going 28 for 66 (.424)! From Aug9 to 31, he went 26 for 57 (.456) with 5 HRs and 17 XBHs!!! He started Sept going 11 for 22 with 2 Hrs and 7 XHBs. Put the end of August with the start of SEP and he went 37 for 79 (.468) with 7 HRs and 24 XBHs. Batting .468 with nearly 2/3 of thos hits being XBHs is about as great as one can be. However, he finished SEP going 11 for 80 with 2HRs and 4 XBHs. That's back to .138 for an 80 game saample size- certainly enough to call a cold "streak". So, 2015 started out as bad as one can be, in the middle was the hottest streak I think I've ever seen by anybody and in the end was a .138 stretch. That's streaky! Now, a closer look at 2016: compared to 2015, he could be called the poster boy of consistency, but he still had some smaller cold and hot streaks. After 59 PAs, he has a .586 OPS with zero HRs and just 4 XBHs. By May 25th , he had brought his OPS up to 1.042. He had 9 HRs and 13 XBHs in those 142 PAs! By June 17th, he was down to .951 with just 2 HRs and 8 XBHs in those 73 PAs. (12 for 64 for a .189 BA). That's a cold streak by any definition. He then went on a mini-hot streak bringing his OPS back up to .976 by June 25th before cooling off to .909 by July 19th. He had just 1 HRs from June 25th to July 20th. He stayed pretty consistent from July 2nd to July 31st by staying between .915 and .932, but he dropped to .842 by AUG 30th. (.651 OPS in AUG, but if you take away his 3 for 4 AUG 31st with an HR and a 2B, it would have been muc h worse.) From AUG 31st to SEP 29th, he went 25 for 97 (.258), but with 5 HRs. He finished the season going o for 11 with just 1 BB. He went 1 for 10 in the playoffs with 1 HBP. So, he ended 2016 going 1 for 21. All players go up and down. JBJ's 2016 was probably not much more streaky than others, but I wouldn't say he was consistent just because his monthly splits hid some of his cold streaks.

From a fans perspective, breaking a curse is huge, but to me, I became a Sox fan in 1971, so I went 43 years without a seeing a ring- other went much less. I'm not why the 40 years before makes much difference. My point was that others have done it, some more than once, plus they won way more total championships, so I can't say that Theo is clearly the best of all time. He's the best I've seen, and that should be good enough for any of us to say.

I don't disagree, and nothing I have said in any way implies Pablo hasn't been a total bust. I hated the deal at the time, due to his decline and weight issues, but he's still young enough to turn things around. . I've said over and over- counting on him for even 1 AB of greatness is a mistake, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a look, assuming he's in much better shape this ST'ing

How about just reading about article I provided and clikcing on the top GMs listed? http://sabr.org/latest/armour-and-levitt-best-25-gms-baseball-history Branch Rickey? He's the consensus best of all-time, at least before Theo's Cub championship. He nearly did it twice. The Cardinals had last won a WS in 1886. They hadn't made the WS in 36 years. They moved Rickey into the GM role in 1925 after a 65-89 record in 1924. Here's how quick he built a winner: 1925: 77-76 1926: 89-65 WS Champions. They made the WS in 4 of the next 8 years (winning 2). From 1926 to 1946 the Cardinals won nine pennants and six World Series. He then took over the Dodgers, and although they had just won 104 games, the war devastated a roster full of mostly over-aged players. 1943: 81-72 1944: 63-91 1945: 87-67 1946: 90-60(signed Jackie Robinson before season) 1947: 94-60 Lost WS He was squeezed out of the GM job soon afterwards, but the Dodgers went on to win with the team he built. He then went to Pitt and built a team by acquiring Roberto Clemente (another first) and many others. He left the team, but the won a ring 5 years later. He joined the Cards again as a senior adviser in 1962 after an 80-74 season. Then... 1962: 84-78 1963: 93-69 1964: 93-69 Won WS (He was not technically the GM though.) The team went on to win in 1967 after he left. #2 on their list is Pat Gillick. He first built an expansion team itno a team that won 86 or more games for 11 straight seasons- finally winning a ring in 1992 (after 16 years).He was not there for the ring. He then joined Baltimore, where they won the ALCS twice- their only two playoff appearances in 20 years. In Seattle, he traded away and lost to free agency their two best players, but the team won over 90 games all 4 years he was there. Finally, he took over the Phillies and in 3 years they won a ring...their first in 28 years! Then, there's ED Barrow at #3. He took over a team (the Yankees) who had never even won a pennant. By 1921, they won their first. The Yanks won 13 more pennants and 10 WS under his leadership. Let's look at #4 Bob Howsam. He was put in charge of the Cards and after the 1965 club fell to seventh place, Howsam traded three aging regulars — Bill White, Dick Groat, and Ken Boyer — very popular players who Howsam correctly believed were near the end of the road. In early 1966 he acquired Orlando Cepeda from the Giants, and after the season picked up Roger Maris from the Yankees. Maris and Cepeda became the number three and four hitters for the club that won the next two pennants and the 1967 World Series. But by that time, Howsam had moved on to Cincinnati. In 1971 a number of Reds had off-years, and the team fell to 79-83 and a tie for fourth. Howsam and Anderson determined that they needed more team speed to return to the top. In December 1971, Howsam pulled off his most famous deal, trading Lee May, second baseman Tommy Helms, and utilityman Jimmie Stewart to the Astros for second baseman Joe Morgan, infielder Denis Menke, outfielders Cesar Geronimo and Ed Armbrister, and pitcher Jack Billingham. Billingham and Geronimo were key members of the upcoming teams, while Morgan, an unappreciated star in Houston, became the best player in baseball. Howsam also added outfielder George Foster and pitcher Tom Hall through trades in 1971. It was the Morgan trade that turned the Reds from a good team to one of the best teams ever. Over the next five years (1972-76) the Reds won 502 games, four division titles and two World Series. #6 John Schuerholz. The KC Royals were under .500 in 1981. The team won it's first WS ever in 1985 ...in just 5 years being there. He joined the Atlanta Braves after the 1990 last place season (65-97). His first year, he got them to the WS! (94-68) The next year, 98-64, the lost the WS again. They went 104-58 in 1993, but lost in the NLCS. After an off year in 1994, they won the WS in his 5th year in 1995. Although they never won a ring again, they won their division 10 straight years after their WS win. #8 Harry Dalton He took over a very good Orioles team, but he then traded for Frank Robinson who went on to win a triple crown. They won in his first year (1966). The Orioles fell back in 1967, largely due to injuries to Robinson, Jim Palmer and Dave McNally. When the club failed to rebound adequately in 1968, reaching the All-Star break at 43-37, Dalton fired manager Hank Bauer and gave the job to Earl Weaver, who had spent many years in the organization as a Minor League manager. Weaver was not shy about making changes, playing Don Buford (a great Dalton acquisition) and Ellie Hendricks, and taught the Oriole Way that Dalton had long championed in the minors. After the 1968 season Dalton traded outfielder Curt Blefary to Houston for pitcher Mike Cuellar, who won 125 games over the next six seasons. The next three years the Orioles won over 100 games, waltzed to division titles, and swept the ALCS. That they only were able to win one World Series masked how great this team was. So good, in fact, that Dalton only had to make one trade of note — he dealt some unneeded players to the Padres for Pat Dobson, who won 20 games in 1971. In six years Dalton won four pennants and two World Series in Baltimore. He then went to the Angels and made some big moves to turn that team around, but they never won a ring. He then went to Milwaukee, where the team had never had a winning season. They were 67-95 the year before he took over, then they went... 93-69 95-66 86-76 62-47 (lost DS) 95-67 Won WS in 5th year You see, it's happened before... many times.

Just about everyone needs pitching, and the FA market sucks for starters and set-up men.

Probably most catchers don't reach their prime on defense until after age 28 or 30. Vazquez still has time to get even better on defense. Leon turn 28 just before opening day. There's room for him to improve also. My point was that if they all keep improving, even if Swihart improves faster, it is unlikely he will get even to or pass Vaz or Leon on defense within the next 2-3 years. He could, but it is not likely. He may not need to, if his offense far surpasses theirs. It would be great, if he could close the gap to a significant extent, making the choice an easier one.

. Understandable

I was joking. I think the theory is that as Swihart improves, so would Vaz, so like aging, he can never catch up or pass Vaz on defense.

Nobody else has built a winner from scratch in 5 years?

Agreed. Also, few catchers are that good defensively at that age (Vaz in 2014).

One problem was that he was in steady decline with SF as he neared prime.

It's the same as saying Swihart will never be as old as Vazquez. Every bit Swihart grows, Vaz does too.

Probably a lot, but should one long awaited ring really move him all the way to number one in the long history of MLB? It's hard for me to pick, but clearly Theo is the best I've seen.

Maybe, but at least it gave Leon a window to shine.

What's surprising is Swihart's almost equal defensive score as Hanigan.

JBJ might end up being streaky. I seriously doubt he ends up anywhere near .220 any season. JBJ's recent 2 year sample size is now up to 891 PAs: .262 36 130 .345 OBP .489 SLG .834 OPS 119 wRC+ (same as Pedey/ better than Bogey) 7.3 WAR in 230 games. That's almost a 5.0 WAR per 162 games.

Catcher OPS .845 Leon (283 PAs) .720 Swi (74) .585 Vaz (184) .500 Holaday (35) .468 Hanigan (113) Team: .250 8 60 (.665 OPS) Innings: Leon 600, Vaz 439, Hanigan 264, Holaday 85 & Swihart 53 fangraphs defensive score from 2014-2016: 13.8 Leon (906 innings) 7 DRS 12.6 Vaz (897) 4 DRS 6.3 Swi (740) -10 DRS 6.2 Han (718) -2 DRS 2.2 Ross (418) -5 DRS 1.5 AJ P (540) -5 DRS 0.7 Holaday (85) 0 DRS 0.5 Butler (49) 0 DRS