moonslav59

Agreed, but I doubt Leon's trade value warrants trading him this winter. Eventually, one will likely be traded, but waiting, at least until the deadline, makes the most sense. However, if we are in serious trade talks with someone over an impact player, and they are insisting on one of our catchers, then we may end up dealing one before we really know who they are. Let's hope we pick the right one.

Funny. I had Swihart, Shaw, Barnes, Owens and Johnson going to the CWS for Frazier and a different RP'er (Robertson). Pretty close or plagerism?

I thought he looked pretty confident in 2015, under extremely tough conditions. He did look timid to start 2016, but the sample size was so tiny, it's hard to get a true feeling about his mentality behind the plate.

Note: I had HanRam listed first at DH with Pablo as the possible second choice. One could also imagine Devers, Moncada or Travis as the DH in 3 years, if they don't win a FT position elsewhere.

Then you must be having convulsions thinking of him at 3B!

So, why isn't that GM the best of alltime? We know why. It's because the system was stacked to allow them to buy everyone and just about anyone they wanted. They had MLB teams acting as their farm system. Could any of those Yankee GMs bring a WS to the rays today? At their salary structure?

Agreed, but a WS is something different.

He couldn't have signed Lester or Lackey or Zobrist with the Rays.

It doesn't have to be by committee. HanRam or Pablo may be best suited to DH by 2017 or 2018 (especially Pablo). We only lose Young off our everyday roster after 2017. We look to have several blocked prospects before Beltran's two years are even up, and it's highly likely one or two will be more than worthy of a FT position based on merit. Let's assume we sign Beltran for two years. Here's how our positional players stack up: Years of control left: 1) Young 2) Beltran 3) Ramirez & Sandoval (assuming we take the buyout) Bogey 4) Betts , JBJ, Vaz & Leon 5) Pedey, Shaw & Swihart 5+ Beni, Moncada, Devers, Travis, Dubon The idea is that Moncada and Devers and maybe even travis will be MLB ready before Beltran's contract is over. The ones that don't take Beltran's slot will take HanRam's and Sandy's the following year. 2019 C: Leon/Vaz/Swi 1B: Devers/Travis 2B: Pedey/Holt 3B: Moncada/Shaw (Devers) SS: Bogey/Hernandez/Dubon LF: Beni/Basabe (Swihart/Moncada?) CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: HanRam/Sandy We'd either have a huge contract on the bench or a top young player on the pine.

I don't think I like Hellickson better than anyone of our top 5-6 starters. He's more reliable than Buch, but I don't like the $17M price tag either.

Being the 5th OF'er in an OF with Beni-Betts-Bradley means just about zero playing time in LF. Young is more than capable playing every inning that an OF'er needs a rest or is out hurt for a short time. Most teams like to have a player able to play the OF in the 5th OF'er role. Holt has been that player, but our OF was much more unstable, which meant he played OF often (too much, in my opinion). If we traded Holt (not giving him away, I might add), we'd have Hernandez as the utility IF'er, Young as the utility OF/DH, Shaw as the utility corner IF'er or starting 3Bman, if Pablo flops again, which would leave the 4th sub role to: Swihart, Marrero, Dubon, Moncada or Travis. There's several reasons for not wanting anyone on this list, except Swihart, but I seriously doubt we trade Holt, so this whole point is likely moot. We won't carry 3 catchers, but there are some advantages to doing so, especially if Hernandez shows he's a better middle IF depth choice than Holt.

Pedey's "hometown discount" extension was signed with just a year at $10M and an option year at $11M ($500K buyout) remaining. He ended up getting $12.5M and $12.5M those two years, which is $4M more to give up his FA rights. I'd say it was a very significant discount. Lester was one year away from free agency. He wasn't giving up arb years or much of anything. He was going to be a FA in a year. Comparing the two was probably a mistake by me, but I remember some posters on "that other site" bring up the "hometown discount" Pedey took to try and justify why the Sox might have hoped Lester would take a similar "discount". I didn't agree then, and I don't agree now, but I don't blame the Sox for trying to see what type of discount he meant. They clearly went way too low, but $17.5M was not chump change a half year after the Pedey deal.

Jeremy Hellickson accepted the QO od $17.2M/1 with the Phillies. Makes you wonder, if they may look to trade that salary.

I do think there's going to be a focus on the set up men. There has been an increasing focus on set up men for a few years now.

I wouldn't say Vazquez's "range of outcome" on defense is much smaller than Swihart's. Many catchers reach their defensive peak in their 30's. Vaz has a lot of room for continued growth. I guess since Swi started lower, his "range" of growth my theoretically be higher than Vaz's, but I see no evidence to think he will ever pass Vaz and defense, which includes game management skills, blocking wild throws, framing pitches and throwing out runners. On the flip side, I doubt Vaz will ever equal or pass Swihart on offense, but I think the gap might be closer than what many feel it is. The 380 some odd PA sample sizes are not definitive. That being said, I do not think Vaz is way better overall than Swi right now. I don't think Leon is much better than either of the others.

The comp was made about Pedey's last extension signed in 2013.

I meant to say finished in the top 10 in the MVP of 2011. My bad. (He also finsihed 7th in MVP in 2013. Cano finished 5th in 2013.

Pedey signed his deal 1.5 years after his MVP season. The deal also replaced the final option year of his previous deal with just a $1.5M raise that year (actually $1M, if you count the $500K buyout). Every baseball expert agreed he took a significant "hometown discount" at the time. He was just 29 when he signed the extension ($110M/8). The following fall, Cano signed for $240M/10. Ellsbury $153M/7 Choo signed for $130M/7 Pence $90M/5 I didn't say I agreed with those who said Lester's offer was similar to Pedey's, but when a player says he's willing to take a hometown discount, one wonders by how much he means. $70M/4 is $17.5M a year, which is $4M more than Pedey, but the market had changed over that year. Clearly a great SP'er is worth more than a recent MVP 2Bman, but in light of what Pedey too compared to Cano, one can reason that $17.5M is about in proportion to Pedey's "underpay". (Not me arguing.) Look, I totally blame Sox brass for low-balling Lester. I thought it was a message that they did want him anymore. It was a horrible mistake on many levels. Perhaps the whole chicken gate fiasco poisoned their minds on everyone. The last ditch $130M/6 offer was either a charade to save face or an admission that they woefully underbid the first time. What sealed the mistake for me was the fact that when they didn't even hear back, they should have immediately offered $114M/6 with the stipulation that there's room to move (maybe with a 7th year $20M option with a $6M buyout- making it a $120M/6 or $134M/7 year second offer). I'm not defending the offer, but let's not forget, Lester had his worst two ERA+ years in 2011 and 2012. After the fact, his 2014 and 2016 seasons have been his best two. He had the 29th best pitcher WAR from 2012-2013. He wasn't close to second best like Pedey was. He had the 53rd best ERA- from 2012-2013. It's easy to looik back, after his awesome 2014 season, and say the initial offer was way off base. My beef was more over the lack of a quick second substantial offer boost.

If Pablo resists us "checking" on his status, then that's a sign of trouble- not that we're not already in "trouble" concerning his contract and projected input going forward. I still think we should plan on zero from Pablo, but hope for the best. We should plan on the second half Shaw showing up, but hope for the first half or somewhere inbetween. We should look for a 1 year bridge to Moncada, and hope Moncada or Devers can take over 3B in 2018.

Some felt the Lester offer was in line with the Pedey "home discount offer".

I'd like to see Bogey and JBJ with one more full season under their belts, before I look to set a price on a long term extension. Bogey will have 2 more years after 2017. JBJ three. I'm fine with extending Betts at anytime, but with the tight luxury tax budget this winter, waiting another year makes sense.

Agreed. You know Pablo has been hearing and reading about himself. If the guy has a shred of pride, he should have been and continue doing everything he can to be in the best shape possible by opening day. He'll have had about 10 months from going on the DL to ST'ing. If he just lost a pound a week, he should be down about 40-45 pounds minimum by ST'ing and maybe 45-50 by opening day.

The question was, "which is harder".

I'd say, easily, the latter. It might even be harder to get the Rays to the WS than a big spending to team to win one.