moonslav59

There are actually three categories of teams in assessing the loss of a pick. Revenue-sharing recipients would lose their third-highest selection (not necessarily a third-round choice). Revenue-sharing contributors would lose their second and fifth-highest selections and also sacrifice $1MM in international signing availability. And all other teams would stand to give up their second-highest pick along with $500K in international bonus funds. In terms of compensation, an organization which loses a QO-declining player who signs for $50MM or more will pick up a draft choice that falls “after the first round.” If a QO-declining player inks for under $50MM with another organization, the draft compensation slides to “after competitive balance round B.” There’s a different set of rules for teams that are over the luxury tax line; any compensatory picks they receive will take place after the draft’s fourth round. Players now will have ten days, instead of seven, to consider the offer.

With the luxury tax set at only $195M next year and our tax rate at I believe 50% next year, I'm not sure how much more than the $10M or so we have to get to the limit we will spend. The limit only goes up to $197M in 2018, and we don't lose much salary after 2017: $13.5M Buchholz $6.5M Young The good thing is, losing this $20M is not losing highly important players. Both should be able to be replaced from within the system (Kopech for Buch and maybe Moncada, Swihart, Travis, Devers or Basabe for Young). Then there's these possibilities: Maybe HanRam's $22M, if he fails to reach 1050 PAs from 2016-2017 or flunks the physical. Maybe Kimbrel's $10.5M luxury cost, if we refuse his $13M option for 2018.

I agree. I do not want to trade Buch. Last year, we seemed to be very deep in SP'er depth, even if most was mediocre at best, but we ended up starting O'Sullivan 4 times ... IN MAY for God's sake! MAY! The only way I trade Buch is if it frees up enough money to add a better SP'er or an equal but maybe more reliable SP'er plus an extra RP'er.

His salary would still count on the luxury tax budget.

I don't think we'd have to pay any of HanRam's $22M a year x 2 remaining. I seriously doubt trading him is even being thought of.

That makes sense, but probably only when they need days off, so maybe 6-10 games total over a year. The other 25-35 games vs LHPs, he should DH. He has to play vs lefties.

I'm not with Beni based on a tiny 2016 sample size vs LHPs, but I do think it is telling that he was basically platooned this year, so one of our best hitters vs LHP, Young, could play. Now that Papi is gone, Young can DH, so I think Beni is going to get a very long look vs LHPs, before any decision is made to platoon him. I do think some players we have right now are better utilized as platoon players. Young is fantastic vs LHPs but barely decent vs RHPs. Out of 144 players with 250+ PAs vs LHPs since 2015, Yoiung has the 5th best OPS at .984! He ranks 273rd out of 331 players with over 300 PAs vs RHPs with a .665 OPS. Not platooning Young is a waste of a valuable asset. Pablo has been horrific vs LHPs over the last few years, but even in 2014 was decent vs righties. Assuming he's even in the conversation, if he returns to near form from 2013-2016, he should be platooned. How horrific has he been vs lefties? He placed 189th out of 190 in OPS vs LHPs at .572. Nobody had more PAs and a lower OPS vs lefties than Pablo since 2013! NOBODY! He's been even worse over the last 2 years (.464 vs LHPs). However, he's been fairly decent vs RHPs since 2013 at .784. He placed 75th out of 224 players with 1000+ PAs vs RHPs since 2013. He's at .733 vs RHPs since 2015- barely worse than Shaw. At best, he should be platooned at DH or 3B. Some other notable splits from 2015-2016: Player vs RHPs / vs LHPs JBJ .871/ .748 Betts .870/ .829 Pedey .812/ .822 HRam .766/ .916 Bogey .762/ .883 Shaw .751/ .761 Holt .727/ .684 There are some big differentials above, but not enough to platoon anyone else. I would consider moving guys up or down in the line-up a little bit based on their splits.

I totally agree that Swihart's highest value is as a catcher. That's one reason Sox management has committed to starting him there this year, most likely at AAA to start the year. I'm all for that. My point has been that sometimes certain scenarios arise where teams decide to maybe go against what's in the best interest of a young player's development out of a higher need on the big club. It's not beyond debate to imagine a LF or DH platoon at some point this year. The DH platoon could be established day one as Young rates to be the DH vs LHPs and the slot vs RHPs is open as of now. Young may end up being the FT DH, but that might depend on how Pablo and Shaw are looking. It wasn't in Bogey's best interest to move him to 3B in 2012, but we ended up needing him there. I caught a lot of flack back then for suggesting he be given some time there earlier than the 10 games they ended up giving him there before his call-up during a heated pennant drive. I was told then, "You don't understand player development protocol." Weeks later, he was moved to 3B. It wasn't in Swihart's best interest to move him to LF, but once Young got hurt and Holt as well, he was quickly moved to LF after a short time in AAA learning the position. I called for giving him some reps at another position long before the short time he got. Again, I caught flack and was told "it's not going to happen!" Well, it did. On Moncada last year, I was sharply critized for saying, "we should begin giving him reps in practice at 3B sooner rather than later." Again, I was told I have "no understanding or prospect promotion protocol!" I was also told, "No prospects should ever be forced to change levels and positions within one season. It just doesn't happen." It did. I even caught grief after it happened and was still called "wrong". I suggested we start playing Beni in LF earlier than we did. Again, I was told that he's not going to be called up to play LF. I know the Beltran deal fell through, but the fact was there was a chance he might be needed there, and in my opinion, they waited too long to give him some time in LF. As with Bogey, the moves worked well, so it's hard to argue with the timing of the moves Sox management made, but certainly debating the subject of exploring various scenarios where a player might be needed outside his comfort zone or developmental progress protocol is not something that should be shut down. Winning a championship is priority number one, and if a Young-Beni LF platoon is the best way to find Young PAs vs LHPs, it could happen at some point this year, depending on who is hitting lefties at DH and how well, and how Beni has done vs lefties over a significant amount of time. I doubt it happens, because I have faith in Beni, but I seriously doubt they demote Beni or keep playing him vs lefties, if he is showing a .550 OPS and we have better options (Young or Swihart). I also think that if Pablo flops or gets hurt, and we haven't acquired a LH'd hitter, it's certainly possible- not probable- that Swihart could end up DH'ing with Young as a platoon. Maybe some here think it's futile to discuss unlikely scenarios, or they think it is so unlikely it doesn't warrant debate, but it's winter, and what else is there to talk about? I do think these conversations are going on with Sox management as they go over their depth charts and various scenarios involving injuries or unfortunate starter struggles.

Will we look to dump some salary to avoid paying a lot in luxury tax? Pablo? Buchholz? HanRam?

CBA approved. Luxury Tax: $195M this year, then 197, 206 and 208. (That means the Sox are about $10M from the line.) A huge tax of 60-70% for teams that go way over the limit with rates going as high as 90% for "greatly exceeding" the limit. Roster Size: stays at 25. QO: still working it out...maybe a lost pick for signing a player to over a certain amount. Another report says like now but no loss of first rounders starting next winter. International: No draft but with a hard spending cap.

Well, it worked out he started just 7 games vs LHPs and 52 vs RHPs. I'm not sure if he sat some games vs lefties, of if the team just faced a wild percent of righties that stretch..

You mentioned that you've been a Sox fan for over 40 years. Please come up with a top young, "athletic" prospect that was "platooned" or "DH'd" during their key development years. I went back to 1971- the year I started following the Sox. I only got to 1972 and already found an example. The Sox faced 120 RHPs and 42 LHPs. Dwight Evans started 41 games vs LHPs. Dwight Evans started just 40 games vs RHPs. His splits? .881 vs LHPs and .580 vs RHPs. It's not a strict platoon, but they sat Dewey vs 2/3rds of RH'd starters. He was a very athletic prospect about the same age as Beni and coming off a short appearance the previous season at the ML level. Rick Miller and Ben Oglivie started the other 80 games vs righties. Cecil Cooper DH'd 40 games in his first full year (1974). I only looked at 4 seasons and found two examples of what you said doesn't happen in player development. I think Butch Hobson was mostly platooned his first year in the bigs in 1976.

I was speaking in a hypothetical that I said was highly unlikely to happen. Over the last 40 years, name a player that played FT hitting .900 vs one hand and .550 vs another in a season going for a championship. Zero. Probably the same number as a good prospect being platooned or DH'd. I can't think any good prospects who ended up being forced to play DH due to an injury or struggling opening day DH. I can't think of any good prospect platooned, except for last year with Beni himself, but it might not have happened for an extended time. There. I answered your question. Now answer mine. Say it's mid June. We're two games up in the wild card. Beni is hitting .900 vs RHP sna d.550 vs LHPs. Leon and Vaz are doing great as catchers. Swihart is hitting .850 at AAA. You really think there isn't even a debate about bringing up Swihart or using Young to platoon with Beni in LF? No debate? The only choice is stick with a .550 hitter or demote him to AAA and lose his .900 OPS vs righties? It may be an absurd scenario I've created, but the response is even more absurd.

I've said over and over I do not want to platoon Beni or Swihart, but starting 77% of the games is not like your being wasted on the bench, especially for 2 players that have never played a ton of games in one season. Last year the Sox faced a righty starter 77% of the time. When you count PH situations, and injuries that might force a few starts vs the "wrong hand", it's quite possible a LH'd hitting platoon player could still get 550 PAs. Heck, Holt almost got that many in 2014. We got Cody Ross as a platoon player and he got over 525 PAs in 2012.

If Leon hit .700, Swihart will not overtake him in 2017, even if he's hitting .850 in AAA. That could be a big if for Leon, but then there's the chance Vaz could hit .675 to .700.

I'm not saying he's on the 25 man roster. I merely showed the highest possible rank in the depth charts at 3 positions as of right now. I agree, maybe 6th OF, but I'd rather have Swi than Holt in LF if a long term situation arose. If Swi can hit over .800 and Leon or Leon are doing well, I could see Swihart as a DH... not ideal, but injuries could force the hand.

Playing 77% of the games is pretty close to FT, especially for a rookie. Again, I'm not calling for a platoon, but do you really think they'd send him down while hitting .900 vs RHPs? You think they'd keep playing him vs lefties, if he's hitting .550 vs them? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but what if it does? If we sign Beltran, Young will not ride the bench vs LHPs as Beni hits .550. Young has been one of baseball's best hitters vs LHPs over the last 2 years combined. Like top 10 out of hundreds!

Not in Trouts case (last 5 years).

What he has done over the last few years. I know it's not scientific. I know AB might end up below 1.0, but I'm expecting about 2.0 to 3.0, assuming he stay healthy- something that may be a stretch.

I see 2017 as Beni's rookie (freshman) year.

Just because their time tables are similar, doesn't mean AB will follow their example. Yes, he could, but I see no reason to think the comps you came up with have any significance with AB's projection. Schwarber got hurt, so what's he even in this comp for?

They almost always project low. Take Trout as an example; he's been over 9.0 in 4 of the last 5 years, but steamers has him at 8.8 next year. Mookie Betts has not even reached prime. He was at 7.8 this year. They have him at 5.5 next year. They may turn out right, but they almost always guess low on great players. They may guess high on guys like Pablo at +0.9.

What is? That Vaz could use FT play to work on his offense? That the Sox might acquire another Holiday before playing a red hot Swihart from AAA in just a platoon role where he starts 77% of the games? That Swihart is higher on the depth charts than #3 catcher, #5 OF'er or #3 DH?

I like Swihart's chances of becoming a decent defensive catcher. I value him very highly. I also think Vaz is so much better defensively right now, that it is likely Swihart never catches up. I think Vaz can improve too and will. I agree on the likelihood of Swi improving his D being higher than Vaz improving his O, but there is a certain point where his O has to outweigh the D vs Vaz. I'm not sure how Sox management gauges such things, but I'd be interested to know how close they view Swi to Vaz right now overall.

I'm not saying I want them to platoon or think they will platoon, but there may be some scenarios where it is best for the team. Call it crazy or absurd, but to me it'ds crazier to think they'd send Beni down if he's hitting .900 vs 77% of starting pitchers and .550 vs 23% of starters. Again, I'm not saying he will have bad splits. I don't think he will, but certainly the chance is there. It's not beyond debate.