moonslav59

Moving him so we can put someone who's not as talented in his place makes no sense. The only way it makes sense is to someone who believes Moncada > Benintenti and Benintendi > Bradley, and I ain't buyin' it, even with Beni's SSS. Dewey, you know me; I love defense, but I also know other GMs do as well. I would never trade JBJ, unless the return was great.... like Quintana. I think Moncada's best place might be in LF or with the CWS.

His defense. I'm not concerned that much with his high K rate. I think he will be an .800+ MLB hitter- probably .850+.

Also, Shaw's 2015 in AA was only 208 PAs. Travis Shaw by half seasons since 2012: 2012 .957 at A+ (423 PA) GREAT .781 AA (133) GOOD 2013 .744 AA (352) Not GOOD (for a 1Bman) .722 AA (177) Not GOOD 2014 .954 AA (208) GREAT .752 AAA (346) DECENT 2015 .674 AAA (322) HORRIBLE .813 MLB (248) Very GOOD 2016 .788 MLB (337) GOOD .619 MLB (193) HORRIBLE So, since the second half of 2012: 1 GREAT 1 Very GOOD 2 GOOD 1 DECENT 2 Not GOOD 2 HORRIBLE He's been not good to horrible for 4 of the last 9 half seasons (5 of 9, if you count .752 as not good). He's been decent to good for 3 of the 9 (one could count .752 as not good). He's been very good to great for 2 of 9. I don't see a lot of hope for "very good to great" in 2017.

Overall, do you think the mariners are better for 2017 as a result of the recent deals? Better long term?

I was referring to his .795 OPS at AA from 2012-2014. His AAA numbers are more recent than 2014, and .715 OPS in 668 PAs in AAA is frightening to me. He's shown he can have extended periods of plus hitting, so I have no given up hope, but I'm afraid he might be more like the .715 guy than the .795 AA guy or even the .754 MLB guy.

I'm losing confidence in Moncada as a 3Bman. I think his last chance at a position might be LF. I'd hate to have an athlete like him end up at DH. His best value to us may end up being in trade. I like Devers at 3B too. They say his defense improved immensely this year. Great sign!

Shaw had bad numbers at AAA and barely decent numbers at AA. Apples and oranges, but we should be cautious with beni hopes..

I found a few examples of Red Sox prospects or 1st or second year players (under 24) playing DH: 1973 Ben Oglivie played 16 of his 94 games at DH in his second year after under 250 PAs his rookie year (1972). 1974 Cecil Cooper DH'd 39 out of 102 games played his first year with over 110 PAs in MLB. 1974 Jim Rice DH'd 13 of his 24 games before his 1975 rookie year. 1975 Juan Beniquez DH'd 20 out of his 28 games (his second significant year). 1977 Ted Cox DH'd all of his 13 starts his first year. 1978 Ted Cox DH'd 10 out of 89 starts his second year. 1980 Cico walker started half of his 14 games as a DH in his first year in MLB. He never DH'd again. 1987 Sam Horn started all 40 of his games as DH in his very first year in MLB. He never DH'd in the minors. 1988 Sam Horn started all of his 16 games at DH. 1992 Eric Wedge started all 15 of his games as DH. He never DH'd in the minors, and like Swihart, was a catching prospect. 2011 Ryan Lavarnway was called up and started 7 of 9 games as a DH. He was a highly regarded catcher prospect at the time. 2012 Ryan Lavarnway DH'd in 16 out of 41 starts. These are the examples I've found since I became a Sox fan in 1971. It's enough to show, it's not something that never happens to young players and prospects with hope at other positions. Maybe Sam Horn was the only DH type player, but he never DH'd in the minors, so I guess they were grooming him for 1B not DH..

Beni.

You keep saying it doesn't happen, won't happen, can't happen, but it has in very recent Red Sox history.

They took him out of his catcher development protocol plan and had him play LF in AAA for 11 games, then they called him up to play LF for 12.5 games, before getting injured (83%). He sat 2.5 games during that stretch so Young could play. He played 83% of the innings in those games once called up. That's not far from a 77% RH'd platoon. Who knows what might have happened had Young not played CF for 3 days in that stretch as JBJ sat. (They also had Young give Papi and Betts a day off in that stretch.) Had Swihart not gotten hurt, it would have been interesting to see what they'd have done with him and Young. They broke the protocol with Beni for the whole month of August by platooning him with Young. We had a great need and he filled it, perhaps at the expense of his "playing everyday" plan (or protocol as I call it) in the minors. They broke protocol with Moncada and changed his position the same year he was promoted to AA, and then they actually called him up to the bigs to play 3B after playing just 10 games at 3B in AA. If that's not throwing prospect development to the wind out of a significant team need, then I don't know what is.

Word is the Sox are still in on Beltran, assuming the Astros sign EE not CB. There's also talk of Napoli returning. There's no way EE is coming here, as I have said all along.

It's not "prospect protocol," either. Maybe we're just arguing semantics here, but I do think it is common high prospect protocol to try and play them everyday with normal rest days involved. There is very sound reasoning why young players need to play every day. I have never disagreed with this philosophy, but there are times and examples where team needs over-ride prospect protocol or whatever you want to call it. The Sox did it last year with Beni in early August. They called him up and sat him often, mostly vs LHPs. He started 18 of the team's 23 games before getting hurt. That's 75% of the games- actually less than a pure RH'd platoon for the Sox would have been in 2016 with the Sox (77%). Before they ever consider making Blake Swihart the DH against righties next season, they'll get someone outside of the organization. Same thing with Moncada, who you've mentioned in several DH scenarios over the last few months. It's not going to happen at this stage of their development. [/b] Another factor is the luxury tax limit which may restrict our ability to go outside the organization to get a significantly better player than Swihart or Moncada. They already did what you say they'd never do with Swihart in 2016, so I don't think it's far-fetched to imagine a similar need and solution in 2017- mid-season. [/b]

I haven't "softened my stance" at all. Well, you went from saying "no debate" to you saying you "are not saying it's not futile to discuss it."

You've mentioned several times that Swihart could break camp with the Sox as some "super sub." That will never happen, either. Moncada, Benintendi & Swihart will play every day somewhere. That's what I mean by "not debatable." I never said I thought it might happen, except when there was talk of a 26 man roster in the new CBA. I did say there was merit to the idea, especially if Swihart was starting 77% of the games as a RH'd DH plus occasionally playing some in LF and at Catcher after late inning PH situations. The one advantage would be a higher willingness to PH for a catcher knowing we have 3 on the roster. Again, this is a highly unlikely scenario.

True, but the tax would go up to 50% next year. We only lose $20M in salary next winter, so if we're over by $20-39M next year, we'll be over the limit next year before even signing anybody else. My guess is, Sox management will look to reset the tax either this winter or next. 50% + the 12% penalty for being over by more than $20M is a hefty 62% rate for 2018.

Do you know if these new rates apply to 2017? We were over last year by almost $4M, so does that mean we get taxed 30% for going over in 2017? That's actually not as bad as I thought. If we can stay under the $20M over penatly, we'd only pay about $6M in tax on $18M over. So, adding the $10M we have, my guess is we could spend about $28-29M at a cost of $34-35M total (salary + tax). The problem with going over is that for 2018, it would be our 3rd year and a 50% tax would kick in. We do lose $20M in Buch + Young, but if we're over by $19M, we're essentially at zero to spend in 2018, if we want to reset the tax rate.

Brian Butterfield said last year that the reason they don't have young players taking reps at different positions is because they have enough on their plate as it is and they want them to be as comfortable as possible transitioning through the different levels. The guy has a terrific reputation as a fielding coach, so he must be doing something right. I'm not for scrapping the traditional protocol for young player development, but as we have seen, there are times when team needs outweigh the protocol. I'm not saying it's "futile" to discuss unlikely scenarios, I just don't think you'll ever see a top young prospect platoon or DH simply out of "necessity." Actually, you did say "there's no debate", but I'm glad you have softened your stance. Before they ever consider making Blake Swihart the DH against righties next season, they'll get someone outside of the organization. Same thing with Moncada, who you've mentioned in several DH scenarios over the last few months. It's not going to happen at this stage of their development. In a September pennant race? Sure, but you'd never see it in the beginning of the season. I have never said either of these guys should be in the DH or platoon role to start the season, so maybe we're not so far apart. I also do think we may look outside the organization to fill a new opening due to injury or struggles before using Swi or Moncada in a role where they don't play much, but as I have pointed out, a RH'd platoon player would have started 77% of the games in 2016 and have other opportunities to play in games not started. I think you may be over blowing the sitting on the bench aspect of those roles. As far as Benintendi goes, he'll play against plenty of lefties this season. If they are in a pennant race in September and he struggled against lefties all season, then sure, they might sit him against lefties, but it would never happen in "May or June." Not May, but if he's at .550 by mid-June or later, they may start sitting him more and more vs lefties, if they have another player with much better numbers. If Young is at DH, there might not be anyone else to platoon anyway. Again, I doubt it happens, but there is, in my opinion, a chance he may be a platoon player by the end of July. Slight, but not out of the realm of debate. As someone mentioned, they'll find Young at bats while resting all 3 outfielders once in a while and in the DH spot, but they aren't going to play Young against every lefty at the expense of Benintendi's development. As we look right now, I don't see anyone taking over Young's role vs LHPs as a DH or back-up OF'er, so I don't foresee the need to have Young platoon with Beni. I did mention one scenario that is not all that far-fetched: Swihart is raking in AAA, especially vs LHPs. Leon and Vaz are doing a fabulous job as 1-2 catchers. We're in the race. Beni is at or below .550 vs LHPs. I could see Swihart being called up to play vs LHPs. Maybe it wouldn't be until August or September, but I'm not sure how long we will support a .550 OPS vs LHPs in a pennant race all in the name of prospect development protocol. That's all I'm saying.

I'd love to see a high OBP with lower power, if that's what it takes. If he can earn the leadoff slot, it would lengthen our line-up and help fill the massive gap Papi left when retiring. 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) Pedey 6) JBJ 7) Pablo-Young DH 8) Shaw-??? 3B 9) Leon-Vaz or 1) Beni 2) Pedey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) Bogey 6) JBJ 7) Pablo-Young DH 8) Shaw-??? 3B 9) Leon-Vaz Without Beni leading off, we'll have JBJ 5th not 6th.

If we try to stay under the limit to rest the tax, I think all we can get are 1-2 RP'er.

Yes, he did, and that's why I'm not worried about Beni's splits right now. I don't think we will spend on a DH this winter with the luxury limit looming. I think Young will DH vs LHPs as a DH and give Beni and JBJ days off for rest vs LHPs. When Betts sits, it might be best to sit him vs lefties too, but his splits are close. Either way, Young should play vs all LH'd starters. Now, that brings us to who DHs when we face righties and when Young is in the OF vs some lefties? Pablo vs RHPs jumps out at me. HanRam vs some righties could give him some rest, so he may not need as many total days off. Shaw could play 1B on those days HR DH's, but then we're stuck with Pablo, Holt or Hernandez at 3B. I'm not happy about that for too many games. Swihart could enter the picture later in the season. Moncada could as well, which would bump Shaw to 1B and HR to DH or just keep Pablo pof 3B and at DH permanently. Travis has an outside chance to get in the miz and allow HR to DH more often.

What's their luxury tax number now? Not their 2017 salary, but luxury tax number.

I have very high confidence in Beni. My biggest concern is his possible fragility.

The minimum DL stint will now be ten days, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. By making the DL more readily utilized, the rule could also increase the amount of player movement — as well as the value of optionable 40-man assets.

From AP: There’s a new league-minimum salary: it’ll be $535K next year, $545K in 2018, and $555K in 2019. Then, “cost-of-living increases” will provide further bumps in the final two years of the agreement. There are also some minor bumps in the MiLB minimum salary applicable to players making their second appearance on a 40-man roster. In the draft, there’ll be some changes in the spread of slot values; details remain unknown, but it seems there’ll be a more gradual decline than the currently steep fall after the first few picks. Teams that go $40MM over the luxury tax line will see their top draft pick fall by ten spots. The initial international bonus pool will actually be $4.75MM. The A’s slice of revenue sharing will go to 75%, then 50%, then 25% over the next three years before disappearing. There will be some changes to the Joint Drug Agreement, including additional testing. Notably, players will not be able to accrue service time during any period they are suspended, which serves as a fairly significant additional deterrent. Finally, there’ll now be “biomarker testing for HGH.”