moonslav59

It's my understanding that no player can be given a QO twice. I wouldn't sign him to even $9M/1

We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit. Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.

I'm basing my projections on where teams stand right now. I do think the al east will be the best again in 2017 but not like 2016.

I disagree. What's the odds on this example player's projected next 100 or 1000 PAs? .000 .333 .167 .310? I'd project closer to .333 than anything else, unless the player is old or the original sample size was not large enough, or a long trend was under way before the 0-20 slump.

I'm still not convinced, and the proof I asked for is just the creator saying it is the best. There is no adjustments made for pitchers with low k rates who consistently get hitters to hit into outs. Again, I respect the attempt to minimize the impact of fielders on a pitcher's success, but by totally removing it from the equation, the low k great pitchers are penalized. They have Wright as below avg while his ERA- was tremendous. That's a metric that also accounts for several factors.

I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.

Some positions, like RF, get way less action than a position like SS. So, a season sample size for a SS is more telling than just a season from an OF'er.

Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there. I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers.

Agreed. Maybe this tweak will be enough to keep him out of the games, but not affect his season with the sox.

Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html

I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.

There are countless pitchers with low K rates that consistently got guys out and had lower ERAs than FIP. They get screwed by the metric. It's a giant hole. Pitchers who get batters out should not be penalized because they lack a high K rate. I get the reasoning behind trying to get the fielders out of the equation, and FIP has a use, but the giant bias needs to be corrected before I pay it much heed.

If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.

Because he started 30 games to Wright's 24. Like I said, it's close, and I'm fine with either choice. My point is that even if you call them equal as starters, Pom has shown he's much better in relief than Wright, so that's the tipping poiint in my opinion- not the slight advantage Wright has as a starter both in 2016 and over their careers.

I'm more worried about Beni's somewhat fragility or injury risk than his performance level risk. With Young, Swihart and Holt/Moreland as emergency LF'ers, I think we'll be fine in LF. I see a major increase in LF production and defense next year.

From what I hear, we are about $14M under the limit, but every time we call up a minor leaguer and pay him a MLB salary, we add a little. That means we really might have about $9-11M of flex space. Your numbers leave out the player benefits payment of about $13M that counts against the luxury tax budget. Plus, payroll is different from average salary cost of each player.

Yes, he deserves a chance to show what he can do. I will mention that I see little evidence from his long history to show he has the skills to build a very good farm system.

Even if you look at 2016 only (both suffered injuries that may have affected their late season numbers): ERA+ Wright 137 Pomeranz 128 ERA- Wright 75 Pomeranz 79 Wright faced tougher teams in the AL East, a DH most of the games, and pitched in a hitter's park. Pom faced easier opponents and pitched many games in one of MLB's best pitcher's parks.

Because he has a much better record in relief than Wright, and they are both pretty even as SP'ers. I actually like Wright's SP'ing numbers slightly more than Poms. His percent of games allowing 0-2 or 0-3 ERs is better than Pom's. It's a close call. Either way is fine with me.

Jeter went from being near average to being one of the worst defensive SSs in his time.

Agreed. I think UZR 150 is better than any single person's opinion based on the eye test and old school use of FLG% and RF/9. Personally, I like UZR/150 a lot, but only in large sample sizes that often need to be more than a full season. I also consult the Fielding Bible, DRS and Inside Edge data. The GG vote is a joke. FLDG% is not even accurate as home team scorers often make very questionable choices-- probably more so than the UZR data collectors. RF/9 can be easily influenced by how often a player's pitching staff allows GB, Fly balls or Ks.

If we do acquire another RP'er, like I hope we do, maybe there would be a debate, but I still see Wright or Pom in the pen as a major addition that outweighs the added depth of one guy like Abad. We got Abad for Pat Light. That shows how easy it is to trade for some depth like Abad mid season. What we lack in pen depth are pitchers with options remaining, preferably with ML experience. We have Workman and Scott and a bunch of guys like Noe Ramirez and Ysla, but we could use a couple more Scotts. If we do sign a guy like Holland, I'd just trade Abad or Hembree or both, and still keep ERod in the rotation.

We'll have to agree to disagree. We have plenty of pitchers who do very well vs LHPs, including RH'd Thornburg who has amazing reverse splits: vs LHBs: .531 vs RHBs: .732 We could probably trade Abad for a decent RP'er with an option left...even more so with Hembree as he has 3 years of team control remaining. I love having Wright or Pom in the pen. That's an addition that costs us no more money or prospects to trade for a pitcher of their caliber. To me, it's a waste to not use one of them in the pen. Sending ERod to AAA weakens the pen too much to offset any loss in depth we may encounter by having to trade Abad or HH. Plus, we can just create an injury and keep them on "rehab" to prolong any decision. Again, we are talking about the current roster and assuming everyone is healthy, which probably won't happen, so all this debate would be about nothing. We might trade for a pen arm, and then a debate could follow, but I really don't see sending down a healthy and productive ERod as a even a slight consideration for the small plus it might give us by allowing us to keep both ABad and Hembree on the team. I respect your opinion, and maybe we view the word "consideration" in different ways, but I don't see it happening, unless we make a trade or signing and further crowd the pen.

I don't recall 700 weighing in on this issue. (Did I just say that out loud? ......Oooops!)

Paul Byrd