moonslav59

I brought up G forces. You responded to it. I brought up flying an AF jet as an analogy to the dangers and stresses (G force and otherwise). I never meant to link you to any claim of G force as a stress, but it is often used by those claiming race car driving is a difficult physical activity or achievement.

Pretty spot on.

Same age, but there seems to be more raw potential to Ockimey's future. (Perhaps a lower floor as well.)

Even by 2018 as I suggested he might be?

Yeah, one pitcher RP'ers suck... like Mo. I prefer Pom in the pen over Wright for several reasons that I've gone into detail to support. Here's the summary: 1) Wright has allowed 3 or less runs in 80% of his MLB starts. He's allowed 4 or less runs in 86% of his starts. Pom has a worse percent in both categories. 2) Pom has a much better record as a RP'er than Wright, and has multiple seasons where he jumped back and forth between RP'er and SP'er. 3) A knuckle ball pitcher is probably best used coming into an inning with no men on. 4) A knuckle ball pitcher often messes with opposing batters' timing to the point where the next starter benefits from following a knuckleballer.

Wright is out of options, and he shouldn't be in AAA even if he had some. The guy has been very good for 2 years. Our pen is too weak (or lacking in depth) to have the luxury of putting highly skilled pitchers in AAA.

Middle and long relief need not be blow-out innings. With a guy like Pom or Wright in the pen, a manager can afford to yank a struggling starter before it reaches blow-out proportions. I'm not going to try and compare either of these two to Andrew Miller, but Miller got over 75 IP last year in high leverage situations. With only Kimbrel and Thornburg looking like solid late inning RP'ers, we could use Pom or Wright to pitch from the 6th inning to the doorstep of our closer.

Our pen finished strongly last year, but it could all be a mirage. We lost 3 of our top RP'ers (Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa) and replaced them with Thornburg and hopes of an early return to form by Smith. Kimbrel showed regression last year-- his 4th straight significant jump in WHIP (.088> .091> 1.06> 1.09). We may need a closer this year. Thornburg & Smith have had one very good year in the bigs each--just one. Kelly has fooled us with late season heroics before. Ross has been steady as can be, but for some reason has never been promoted to 8th inning status. Barnes showed signs of growth and glimpses of greatness last year, but he's still just a promise. The rest are big question marks: Elias, Hembree, Abad, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla, Olmos or a starter turned RP'er like Owens or Johnson. This pen is not as good as some seem to think it is. We were somewhere between 8th and 12th last year in many major RP'er stats or metrics, but we were also very close to being number 16 in several categories of measurement. Losing 3 key RP'ers and replacing them with one is not encouraging. Adding Pom or Wright to the pen, if possible, could go a long way towards improving the pen. Either can eat a lot of innings in the middle of a game and keep us competitive after a starter struggles. Who is our big middle inning/long relief guy now? Barnes? Kelly? We may need Kelly for the 8th as a set-up man. I'd feel much better limiting Kelly and Barnes exposure this year. Assuming a healthy rotation, we could get 100+ IP from Pom or Wright out of the pen. With our rotation expected to go deeper into games this year over last, thos 100 IP would take a lot of stress off the others.

Our pen cannot afford the luxury of not accepting Wright or Pom into the fold. ERod is another story. I don't think we should mess with his routine.

There was talk of moving Devers to 1B before last year. He took a massive step forward improving his defense. Maybe that took away from his work on hitting early on, but this kid just keeps finding a way to bring his offensive numbers up by season's end. I do think hoping for a 2017 appearance is a bit unrealistic, but 2018 is a reasonable goal. It would work out perfectly, if we could move an in shape Pablo to 1B and HanRam to DH full time in 2018.

Agreed. Let's get back to Sox baseball... Which Sox player is most likely to see a 100 point rise in his OPS? Betts .897> ? HanRam .866> ? JBJ .835>? Beni .835>? Pedey .825>? Bogey .802>? Holt .705>? Vaz .585>? It's easy to look at Vaz and think .685 is achievable without anything major happening. Bogey getting over .900 makes some sense. JBJ's ability to have stretches of awesome numbers begs the question about being able to sustain it over a longer period or multiple periods within one season. I like Betts getting over 1.000, but that's a lot to ask for someone who has shown steady growth for years. He's bound to have a level off year here or there along the way. He did jump 77 points last year, so asking for 100 after that is a lot to ask. Who is most likely to drop 100 points? HanRam .866> Young .850> Leon .845> Beni .835> Pedey .825> I'd say Leon is the obvious pick here.

Maybe next year. I'm not into getting involved in non Sox players' production and projection.

If he felt misunderstood here, wait till he gets to Japan!

There's a lot of questions here, but there's also a lot of players listed here that are pre-prime, at the start of their prime years or in the meat of their prime. There's a strong chance someone has a breakout year or a huge gain in production. Even a player like Betts could jump over a 1.000 OPS and nobody would be shocked.

Some Sox questions to ponder.... Leon- Vazquez-Swihart: All have shown promise in either offense or defense. Can two of these guys step up their weaker side and become all around solid catchers? Keep an eye on Leon's weight. He seemed to me to be gaining weight throughout last season. Will he pull a Panda on us in 2017? He has always been a bit "pudgy", but I don't see any indication of him gaining more weight. Sale, Porcello, Price: Sale has been a rock, and so has Price until 2016's shaky start and finish. Porcello blossomed. Can the big 3 live up to their hype? Will the risk of injury bite us with Sale? If we lose any of the big 3, it will be a major issue, but we'll still have two top quality starters. Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Marrero... Is this bench good enough? Young and Swihart may also be bench players and are better than those you name. I have Young as a starter vs LHPs, but certainly he's a great bench piece vs RH'd starters replaced by a lefty. Yes, Swihart could be a key bench piece this year. Abad, Hembree, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla: Hopefully, we don't have to count on any of these guys too much... Are they good enough? Abad certainly was awful for us in 2016. He seemed to have good stuff but never achieved good results. He still led all Sox pitchers in lowest OPS against (.461) vs LHBs. That's what we got him for. JBJ: He has had two straight seasons over .830. There were a few big ups and big downs in those two seasons and one big long down in 2014. Can we expect more consistency in 2017? Can we expect a jump in OPS? What has JBJ done in the off season to improve his technique? Without some change in his swing mechanics I don't believe he can achieve consistency. It's hard to know if a major adjustment is needed, or if he just had a season ending slump. I think it's too early to label him a streaky hitter. I'm noit saying there aren't indications he will be, because there are, but let's give him a chance to show what he's got.

I'm not trying to put down car racing or golf or any activity or game I don't consider a sport. I just have a narrower view of what a sport is. I'm fine with those who have a wider view on this. I can even understand those who would call baseball a game and not a sport.

That and no right turns. I mean, at least add a little more challenge. I get the fact that it is physically demanding to race a car at those speeds for that long of a period, but I just don't see it as being a sport.

It was an analogy that related to the G stress and mental stress that car racers are under. One mistake and you could be dead. IMO, not a sport...just and adventurous and dangerous game.

True enough, but with our pen being somewhat shaky or at least questionable, I want the one left out of the rotation in the pen--not AAA.

The positional difference was in regards to who might be first to make the big club not as a ranking aspect. Longhi's similar numbers, except for HRs, must be viewed in the context of being a year older at each level.

To me, just having physical forced placed upon you, such as G forces with car racing, does not make it a sport. I am fully aware of the forces and stresses on a car racer. I'm not "ignorant". Is flying an Air Force jet a sport? Would it be, if they raced?

This is really a close call, and with nothing better to talk about, we turn this near 50-50 choice into something bigger than it is. I get your point, but to me there's a flaw in your plan. Pom has been given so many chances to win a rotation slot. He even got 30 starts last year. The whole "let's see what he's got" argument makes more sense with Wright, who has had two very good seasons in a row where his season was cut short by injuries. The second part of the argument should be about who is more likely to be able to pitch over 170 IP and still be good to go for the playoffs. Pomeranz has had years to prove he can go 170 or 180+ IP and still be sharp. Here's his IP totals: Yr MLB minors total 11 18.1 101.0 119.1 12 96.2 50.2 147.1 13 21.1 91.0 112.0 14 69.0 46.1 115.1 15 86.0 2.0 88.0 16 170.2 0.0 170.2 Granted, he was in the pen for some of this time, but so has Wright. Pom's one season going over 148 IP saw him run out of steam. Why use this year to see if he can be strong after 180 IP in the playoffs? Why not rest him to start the year and not have to find out? Wright has a much longer professional career. While he has never been over 170, it seems he gets hurt not runs out of steam. He's had 5 seasons over 130 IP to Pom's 2. Why not start Wright. If he gets hurt, Pom is ready to step in and hopefully not end up going over 170 IP this year by playoff time? 07 0.0 114.1 114.1 08 0.0 147.2 147.2 09 0.0 87.0 87.0 10 0.0 75.1 75.1 11 0.0 133.2 133.2 12 0.0 141.2 141.2 13 13.1 135.1 148.2 14 21.0 100.0 121.0 15 72.2 52.0 124.2 16 156.2 0.0 156.2 What worries me is the that even if Pom does great, he may be over 190 IP by playoff time and hit the wall. I'd feel much better, if he took over a starting rotation slot in May or June and had 125 IP by season end and is in the middle of a hot streak like he had in SD last summer. The third aspect of importance is who is the better reliever. Both have an ample sample size of relief. Here are those numbers: Wright as RP'er: 3.88 ERA/ 1.397 WHIP/ .721 OPS against (49 IP) as SP'er: 3.52 ERA/ 1.242 WHIP/ .660 OPS against (215 IP) 2009 AA: RP 1.61/ SP 4.50 2010 AA: RP 4.47/ SP 3.24 Pomeranz as RP'er: 2.10/ 0.995/ .543 (64.1 IP) as SP'er: 4.07/ 1.327/ .710 (398 IP) Again, we're arguing over minute differences. I have no issues with those posters who prefer Pom. I think either one will do fine. I just like Pom better as a RP'er and don't want to have to test his stamina, if we don't have to.

He has a lower percent of blow-outs in his games started vs Pom and Erod. One of his last 10 starts saw him allow more than 5 runs. 3 of 10 with 5 or more runs allowed. If that's his worst stretch to label him "inconsistent", I'll take it. Both Pom and Wright saw their second half ERAs plunge. Injuries probably had something to do with both downturns. The fact is Wright has an amazing percent of his starts allowing 3 or less ERs and 4 or less over his career: 3 or less/ 4 or less 2016: 18/24 and 20/24 2015: 8/9 and 8/9 2014: 1/1 and 1/1 2013: 1/1 and 1/1 career: 28/35 (80%) and 30/35(86%) Pomeranz (playing half his games in huge parks) 2011: 3/4 and 3/4 2012: 15/22 and 18/22 2013: 2/4 and 3/4 2014: 8/10 and 8/10 2015: 3/8 and 3/8 2016: 24/30 and 24/30 career: 55/78 (71%) and 59/78(76%) Pom has had his chance "to prove" what he can do. He's done a fine job as a starter and a reliever. If anyone deserves a longer look, it's Wright. He has a better good start percentage, and in my mind, that's the measure of consistency.

The other factor that is often ignored or minimized is how much a knuckle ball messes with the opponent's timing. One game facing Wright can take a hot hitter out of his comfort zone and into a confused state of mind for the next few pitchers he faces. I once did a study on starting pitcher ERA after a Wake start as compared to that season's overall ERA. It was pretty amazing how much better starters did right after a Wake start.

Next, they'll be calling driving a car making a bunch of left hand turns a sport.