moonslav59

Moon I think we're on the same page..... Agreed. Most of our debating is about the few areas we disagree, so it might seem like we are far apart. There are moments in franchise history that with just couple of right moves the team can go on a sustainable playoff run for several seasons. It takes several players reaching their peak years at the same time. We are at such moment. We have either cost controlled players or under team contract players for next two to three years and longer. Obviously we'll have to pony up with some free agent money as these players go beyond arbitration years. It's not going to be as easy for the Sox to acquire great young talent going forward, even before the IFA penalty we just got. The rules have changed to make it harder for richer teams to draft and acquire better talent than poor teams. That's one reason I liked Espinoza so much. He represented a great hope to our long term future. Getting Groome helped balance that loss, but having both of them would have really boosted our outlook 4-8 years from now. The whole idea is not to dismantle the core group. It starts with Betts, Bogaertz and Bradley. You have to throw in Pedey since he's under contract until 2021. Shaw also has to be in the mix unless someone comes along who is actually better. That has not happened. He may grow into an elite hitter with some power. I'll give him credit for learning to play 3B like a major leaguer. I know that you see Swihart as a major trade bait but for now I'm perfectly content with the trio of Swihart, Leon and Vazquez calling the pitches. If Leon can hit .270 range than we have a very good major league catcher. With Pomeranz in the fold for 2.4 more years, I don't feel an urgent need to acquire a top quality SP'ers. Don't get me wrong: I still would love another ace or solid #2 type SP'er more than Encarnacion, but we don't have to grossly overpay with our future to do it. Also, now that Espinoza is gone, I'm more reluctant to deplete our young core of players and prospects as before the trade. I still think Swihart and Devers are our most expendable high value players in our system. Again, please don't take this as me wanting to hand these guys away or that I value them less than most. There will be a big hole at DH. My preference is to go get Encarnacion but other options are available and perhaps more urgent. I don't want to imply Moncada and Benintendi can replace Papi, but Papi's departure and the fluid LF situattion is what is providing a window of opportunity for these two kids. We'll have Young back along with Swihart to patrol left field as we wait on Moncada and Benintendi. I'd prefer to keep Holt around as a super sub. With him we can go with 13 pitchers if we need to since he can play all 7 positions. Once Papi leaves, I don't think the need for a supersub like Holt is as important. We have a good starting point with Price (6 more years), Porcello (3 more years), Pomeranz (2 more years) and cost control pitchers in Wright and Rodriquez. I'm all for acquiring another #2/#3 type but it has to be done without breaking up this group. Agreed. I like to see us start 2016 with 6 solid starters. Kimbrel will return for 2 more years (club option in 2018). My guess is Ziegler will return to west coast. It seems money is secondary to him (good for him). Koji can return but he has to take a huge pay cut. Tazawa may get a better deal elsewhere, maybe not. It's encouraging to see Barnes and Hembree steping up. I still like Ross Jr. He's a fun loving guy that can pitch. If Kelly can accept his new role and is able to throw strikes he can be a very good reliever. Maybe we can still acquire a low cost pen help next year for an upgrade. I like the progress of Barnes and Hembree. We may need just 2 solid RP'ers to replace Ziegler, uehara and Tazawa. The whole point is that we have a good team assembled. We also need to remember that we've benefited from the last two drafts because we did finish dead last.(Benintendi and Gomes). It was also a major coup to sign Moncada. Our draft position hopefully won't be optimum going forward due to success in standings. 100% agree. Getting Encarnacion and another top flight pitcher will cement our success going foward. (maybe Pablo will shed his fat man costume and earn some of his money) Encarnacion, a solid #3 SP'er and 2 decent RP'ers could make us the faves in 2017.

Even without Encarnacion (assuming we get a better SP'er instead), we look to be "kick ass". You know, there's even a slight chance someone like Pablo, Kelly, Owens or Johnson come back and surprises us over the next few years. I'm not counting on it, but it could happen. Plus, looking at the ages of some of our current stars, some of them could get even better!

I may not have mentioned his faults on my last post, but I have addressed those faults many times in the past. I did not intend to ignore his many poor and despicable choices. I'm just against those who want to rewrite history because of their hatred towards Manny's actions.

We got Barnes and Owens for VMart after he bolted. We got Swihart and JBJ for losing Beltre. We also got Brentz and Workman when we lost Bay to free agency. We got Ranaudo (who turned into R Ross) for Billy Wagner. Some of those deals just keep on giving.

Personally, I wouldn't have traded Espinoza for all all 3 combined. I think Espinoza is going to be a great pitcher. I realize it's speculation, but the upside was so great, I didn't think what we got back balanced it out. (I also liked Basabe, but was okay with that deal.) I'm not upset about the Pomeranz trade. His 2.4 years of control at a low cost is a big plus.

Some of us also thought we should have planned for an unforeseen injury or significant struggle from a pitcher we projected doing fine this year (Price, Porcello, ERod). Look how bad our rotation ended up being despite Wright having a break-out year- seemingly to some- out of nowhere! Remember, Porcello was a question mark going into 2016 as well, even to a poster like me who had been defending him and the extension more than anyone. Looking at the history of big FA SP'er signings, even Price could have been viewed as not being a slam-sunk to put up ace-like numbers in 2016, though I realize you can't get much closer to "sure bet" than Price. The fact is, and this is not hindsight for me and many many other posters, we started the season with an ace (Price), a pretty good bet on two #3's (Porcello and ERod) and then 8 "wings and a prayer" gambles: Buchholz Kelly Wright (some had him below everyone on the depth chart) Owens Johnson Elias Barnes Cuevas/O'Sullivan Look, I get the argument that 2 of these guys rated to do well enough to contribute enough wins to our 4-5 slots. Nobody forsaw a 7.00+ ERA from these guys combined (as starters), but I've always hated the quantity over quality mentality on structuring a rotation. I'm not trying to claim I knew more than Sox management, because I know I don't. I realize my position on quality over quantity seems to contradict my point about needing depth to cover something like the injury and struggles of ERod-someone we viewed as a solid #3 going into 2016, but depth of mediocrity (or worse) and high risk guys like Buch and Kelly never seem to work out. You are right, we went into 2016 with 2 question mark rotation slots and ended up with 3 due to ERod's struggles. We were somewhat lucky that Wright more than made up for ERod, and maybe one could argue we were unlucky that nobody out of Buch, Kelly, Owens, Elias, Johnson and others stepped forward to fill even the 4 slot. I saw it then as poor planning, and I see it now as costing us a great long term prospect in Espinoza to fix the mistake made last winter. I'm glad we have Pomeranz, but I'm not going to lie and say I approve of the time and way we went about getting him or someone like him.

I don't think Espi will fail. He probably won't become the next Pedro, but my bet is he gives the Padres more in 5+ seasons than what Pomeranz gives us in 2.4 years. I don't think DD bet on Espi failing. I think he bet on Pomeranz being a solid #2 type for 2.4 years. That being said, our rotation is much better now and for the next two seasons with Pomeranz slotted 3rd or 4th. Our budget is much better structured going forward, which will give us much more flexibility over the next two winters... just long enough to get us over the HanRam contract.

I also worried Hill would not last a full season.

One of the longest running threads in the history of "that other site" was a thread I started titled "No Manny- No Rings". I started the thread soon after his trade in an effort to address the revisionist posters trying to claim that Manny was not as great or as important as he really was for us. The guy was amazing. I loved his calm approach at the plate. He hardly ever argued with umps. He rarely showed emotion when striking out- a trait that I feel drives pitchers crazy, but was mistakenly taken by fans as a sign he "didn't care". Manny worked as long and as hard or longer than anyone else in MLB. His childlike behavior could become annoying to some (many), but we could all see he loved the game. I don't see that too much these days.

Unless Hill gets hurt more this season, I think he'll seek a 2-3 year deal, even at his age. I'm not sure that's a good idea for the Sox. Certainly, I'd kick the tires, but my guess is someone else will offer more than DD. (Note: one good thing about the Pomeranz trade is that he will cost much less financially than a FA signing would have this winter. That may allow us to sign Encarnacion and someone like Hill $8-10M/yr plus a decent RP'er or two.

$150K is what many Americans make in 10 or more years.

Maybe ERod's last start is a sign of good things to come. The fact that Pomeranz is not a 4/5 slot pitcher, IMO, takes away the need to get 2 SP'ers at the deadline. If something happens, there's always a waiver wire deal possible.

3 fewer starts this year and then 2 less full seasons.

I've racked my brain on this, and it's hard to know how much other GMs value(d) the prospects I have suggested we offer, but I also provided choices, so I keep thinking something was probably outa there. I realize I may have been totally wrong. Either the guys I liked weren't really available without a super massive overpay, or there just plain wasn't any team that matched up with my suggested offers. The names I mentioned most often were Quintana and Salazar with Carrasco and Tyson Ross right up there. Of course, there others like Sale and Gray. Probably none of these guys could have been had without parting with Betts, Bogey, Moncada or Beni. I wasn't against including Beni or Espi in a deal to get one of these guys, but I would have like to have known who the best pitcher we could have gotten for an offer similar to the one above and then compare him to who we might have been able to get by adding Beni or Espi to the offer. I have to think someone like Swihart would be highly sought after. I'd expect teams to overpay for him! Even teams all set at 3B and 1B would love to add Devers to their farm. I also think teams would love to add Holt or Hernandez to their roster, and both might start for many teams. Dubon, Chavis and Travis might be a top 3-5 prospect on several teams. Kopech, TBall, Owens and Johnson still hold some value. I would think Teheran could be had for a package of 2-3 of these guys, but I'm not that high on him, and it appears the Braves are too high, period. Sonny Gray might be an option, but the A's are in no hurry to trade him while his stock may have dipped slightly this season. Matt Moore or Odorizzi are two names, but maybe the Rays won't trade with the Sox. I have to think someone special is out there. I'm offering several "some specials" to get him. Anybody out there have a suggestion on who we might get for these guys?

Some one else will overpay for Hill

Nice outing for Brian Johnson too. Maybe there's hope yet...

It's nice that Pomeranz still has upside potential or at least a significant chance at continuing his recent trend. He's a big plus to our rotation over the next 2.4 seasons. The big minus of losing Espi won't hit us until after Pom is gone.

I realize Young has done very well for us this year, but to me, it's easier to find a decent LF'er (DMac, Nava, de Aza) mid season than a SP'er. The $6M spent on Young per season could have been used to sign someone like Hill or Fister. Even though risk was involved with either choice. My own preference was to go bigger. I won't get into the whole Margot & Guerra package, but even after the Kimbrel trade, I still felt we could have gotten someone very special for Swihart, Devers plus maybe one or two from Holt/Hernandez/Marrero/Dubon, Chavis/Travis, Owens/Johnson/TBall or maybe even Kopech.

Well, with Pomeranz not costing too much financially, and the luxury tax set to go up significantly, we could have a lot to spend on the pen this winter. A lot depends on what we may or may not choose to spend on a big bat. I think Carson Smith could project to a number 2, but if we place him 3rd, we should be very well set on that end of the bullpen. I like Hembree a lot, and Barnes seems to have taken a step forward, so maybe we just will need a #2, #4 or 5 & #6 or 7 I'm still holding out hope on Kelly, but we shouldn't plan on him to be a big plus anywhere we put him. Whatever he brings would be gravy or injury depth.

A while ago, when Betts had about the 7th best OPS on the team, I projected he'd end up in the top 3 by year's end. I must admit, I'm surprised he passed Bogey not JBJ, but he is now top 3. He may still end up top 2. 1.093 Ortiz .926 JBJ .865 Betts .854 Bogey .846 Young .802 Pedey .799 Shaw .785 HanRam .764 Hill (2 teams) .731 Holt .583 Vazquez Others: 1.212 Leon .754 Hernandez .737 Brentz .733 Rutledge .720 Swihart .519 Hanigan How about the last 28 days? (not counting today) 1.076 Holt (25 PAs) 1.033 Ramirez 1.030 Leon .974 Ortiz .893 Betts .875 Hanigan (8 PAs) .832 Shaw .791 JBJ .777 Hernandez (28 PAs) .761 Brentz .759 Pedey .678 Bogey .634 Vaz (32 PAs) .572 Young (18) .500 Hill (12 w BOS)

I really like Swihart, but I see Vaz as our long term answer at catcher with Leon banging on the door. Since catchers are in super high demand these days, especially ones that project well on offense, I still believe Swihart has higher value with a team in great need of a catcher upgrade. Some of the best teams in MLB today have very weak offense from the catching position. I'm not trying to dump Swihart, and I'm not for just trading him for the best offer out there, but I'd certainly explore the market this winter. I also think Devers might be offered with Swihart to get someone very special. Let's assume we trade Holt, Swihart and Devers for a solid SP'er. We'd have plenty of money to sign Encarnacion and a couple sweet RP'ers. Here's a look at what our 25 man roster might look like: SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 (Special Pitcher acquired in the trade mentioned above) SP4 Wright SP5 Pomeranz SP6 ERod Closer) Kimbrel RP2) Ziegler RP3) C Smith RP4) FA RP5) FA RP6) Barnes RP7) Hembree/Kelly/Layne/Ross/Elias/Light and others C) Vazquez C) Leon (Hanigan?) 1B) Ramirez DH) Encarnacion 2B) Pedroia 3B) Shaw IF) Moncada IF) Hernandez/Pablo/Rutledge/Marrero/Travis SS) Bogaerts LF) Benintendi (Moncada?) LF) Young CF) JBJ RF) Betts This could be the line-up: 1) Betts 2) Bogey 3) Encarnacion 4) Bradley 5) Pedey 6) Ramirez/Pablo 7) Moncada/Shaw 8) Benintendi/Young 9) Vazquez/Leon

If we had traded Espi for Hill, I'd have gone ape s***!

There are a lot of ifs here. It would be great to acquire Encarnacion if it can be done without a long term contract at big bucks. Edwin turns 34 in January. He's going to want to go for broke an max out years and money. The beast is on pace for his 5th straight .890+ OPS season. I can't blame him. I still think we should spend nearly all our available resources on upgrading the staff, but I have to admit, the idea of signing EE is growing on me. I doubt Pablo will ever make it back or get into playing shape. The Sox should just eat the contract and move on without him. I wouldn't bet on Pablo either, but maybe his pride will kick in, he'll surprise us. He'll be 30 in less than a month, so there's still time. Shaw may well improve as he is still fairly new to the majors. He can play first or third for us. I think there's an equal chance he never has a season over .800 or becomes a platoon corner IF'er. Hanley is not my idea of a positive asset long term although we owe him lots of money. He is doing fine at first base, but he looked pathetic at the plate today. He is also poor on the base path. I know he has shown improvement before the all star break but then today he was back to looking bad. I think we should trade HanRam after the season, before he has another 2015 season. He's too risky and expensive. If he has a decent end to this season, his trading stock may be the highest we'll ever see. Sam Travis may come back strongly from his injury or he could just be considered trade material. Until we know more about Shaw and what position Moncada ends up playing, we may want to hold onto Sam Travis. Brentz looked lost at the plate today also. I don't see him as a realistic FT option anywhere. We could use help now in the outfield with Benentendi being the closest fit for that position and may prove to be a major asset going into next season. Moncada could possibly play 3rd, he has the tools. We don't really need that now, so a September call up makes sense. Give him reps there now to prepare him. We also have Swihart and Young available for the late season. Assuming nobody new gets hurt, we'll be a super deep team by year's end. I think Swihart will be traded this winter, especially if Leon hits above .700 the rest of the way. Next year if looks like we will have a very talented team with the loss of Ortiz being the main downer. We will have a lot of trade material also including catching talent as well. Stay young and talented. Don't set up like the Yankees with a lot of older players who are on large long term contracts and have gone way beyond their prime. With Uehara and Taz also coming off the books, we'll have some holes to fill, but I would be okay with not trying to sign a big bat, and concentrate all our resources on pitching.

My guess is... Cuevas is sent down to make room for Pomeranz. Buchholz gets traded for a single-A long shot (my guess is Kelly is ready before Taz) When Taz is ready we have a tough decision. Kimbrel too! Here's how I rank our staff: SP1 Price SP2 Porcello SP3 Wright SP4 Pomeranz SP5 ERod RP1 Kimbrel RP2 Uehara RP3 Ziegler RP4 Barnes RP5 Hembree RP6 Tazawa RP7 Kelly RP8 Ross RP9 Layne (No options remaining) RP10 Buchholz (Others: Cuevas, Elias, Light, Martin, N Ramirez, Mendez, Owens, Couch) I don't see us DFA'ing Layne, so maybe we trade Buch and/or Ross. Probably someone else will go to the DL to solve that issue.

I totally agree, but I felt like I had to put someone below 3-.