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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I agree, and nobody is arguing any of these metrics are perfect. The UZR/150 people even point out that a full season of an OF'er's data may not be a significant sample size. The low UZR/150 for JBJ this year is concerning, but my guess is by year end, he will be near the top in every defensive metric. He'a already gone up from +0.1 to +0.7 in just a few days (currently 9th). DRS has 3 guys with +9, and JBj is one. One guy is at 5 and two at 4. The rest are 3 or worse. Inside Edge ranks plays by difficulty. In the most difficult category (1-10%) the rankings are: 66.7 JBJ 50% Cain 50% Herrera 37.5% Kiermaier 28.6% Buxton 20% M Margot In the next 4 categories, JBJ is at 100%. He also has the most 0% plays in MLB (22). The reason is ranked 10th on this metric is due to much less innings played than those in front of him (except for Jacoby E).
  2. moonslav59
    DRS has JBJ as the best. He's 6 runs saved ahead of the 4th place guy.
  3. moonslav59
    UZR/150 uses the "eye test" from trained observers that try to be objective, are rotated, and are probably more consistent and unbiased than the average fan.
  4. moonslav59
    UZR/150 is based on humans evaluating a player's chance of getting to a ball and either getting to it or an out of not. Other metrics rank the difficulty of a play. Maybe JBJ makes a play look easy and they rank it as a routine out- not a tough one. That was my point.
  5. moonslav59
    Nice to see the bats pick up Sale on an off night. It makes up for some of those low-scoring no decisions and losses earlier..
  6. moonslav59
    Wow, 12 PAs is enough to know this? I love Travis, and I do think he will be a good to even better ML hitter, but it is very early. Also, it looks like Moreland has begun to hit better once Travis was called up.
  7. moonslav59
    We won't be tied for last in HRs anymore this year.
  8. moonslav59
    MLBTR... While there was initially a fair bit of concern for veteran Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the prognosis now seems to be good. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he thinks Pedroia may be back after the minimum ten-day absence, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports on Twitter. “It’s really the best-case scenario in many ways,” said Dombrowski.
  9. moonslav59
    It was supposed to be a Moreland-Young platoon that "replaced" Papi, but now that HRam is the permanent DH, we lose Young's great splits vs lefties. While nobody thought Moreland-Young would do as well as Papi, an .800 combined OPS was reasonable to expect. The "rest" was supposed to be made up for by a full year by Beni and a much improved rotation. So far, it hasn't worked out as planned, but my guess is we'll finish top 5 in runs scored.
  10. moonslav59
    Well, in all fairness, UZR/150 is not supposed to be used in small sample sizes. For OF'ers, even a full season may not be a large enough sample size to make a definitive judgment, so I take the low UZR/150 number for JBJ this year with a grain of salt. I think JBJ is deceptively good. He makes tough plays look easy, so maybe that has affected the ratings of some of his plays.
  11. moonslav59
    I still think out pen will prove to be our greatest weakness this year, but 3B is giving a good run at it.
  12. moonslav59
    I agree, BJ would take any ML roster slot given him, but I wonder if we want to jeopardize messing with our 6th starter by converting him to a long relief guy. I might be best to keep him on a regular rotation schedule in AAA, in case he's needed as a starter. Our pen seems to be hanging in there, despite some recent troubles by Barnes and Hembree, so I'm not sure we're at an urgent point in need of a pen arm like BJ.
  13. moonslav59
    I expected Porcello to be somewhere between his career norm, which ranks as a decent 2 slot starter or a top 3 slot starter. The chance remained he could pitch like a top 2 or a decent 1 this year. Price should still have some ace years left in him, assuming he stays healthy. I see a good chance that... Sale wins the Cy Young and is the best ace in the AL this year. Price could pitch like the best #2 in MLB. Porcello could be the best #3 in MLB. ERod could be the best #4. Pom could be a top tier 5th starter.
  14. moonslav59
    True. Even if Colorado said we could keep him, he's still out of options.
  15. moonslav59
    Close race for the 2 wild card slots: BOS 27-23 BAL 26-23 CLE 26-23 TBR 27-26
  16. moonslav59
    Nobody is going to convince me JBJ isn't one of baseballs best fielding CF'ers. He's great! Defense matters to me, especially up the middle. What baffles me is that fangraphs has JBJ ranked 9th in UZR/150 at just +0.7, yet they have his DRS at +10. This ranks him first a full 6 runs ahead of the 4th place player. I know the sample sizes are small, but something seems out of whack here. I will say one thing: JBJ is one heck of a defender, and I also think he's got a good bat that will be shown to us as the season progresses.
  17. moonslav59
    Your point is a strong one. Every ring we've won was with at least one big time bat in the middle of the order. HanRam doesn't seem to measure up to the level of Papi or Manny. I could end up being wrong with my belief that a full year of Beni, an improved 3B mix and a Moreland-Young platoon would be enough to make up for a sizeable chunk of the loss of Papi. I never expected Papi to be fully replaced, but our offense was so damn good with Papi, that I thought we'd still be "good enough" with what we have now and a much improved rotation and slightly improved defense. So far, our offense has not done nearly as well as I expected, but the season is still young. I hope you are wrong, but you make a strong argument. Papi's influence on the rest of the line-up is hard to quantify. Many felt he'd decline or suffer after Manny's departure, but that never happened. I'd like to think we can win in other ways that with a super bat in the heart of our line-up.
  18. moonslav59
    We really need Price to be close to ace material. I suppose just one from Porcello and Price could be enough, and there's a good chance both can give us near ace level pitching, but I don't see us advancing far into the playoffs without one or both coming through for us. Of course, ERod is the wild card. I'm hopeful he will put together a full season we've all wished he could give us. I just hate to count on that type of wish.
  19. moonslav59
    I think that you have to find a way to utilize Johnson. One of the two - Pomeranz or Johnson - would solidify our bullpen. As long as everyone stays healthy, it's going to be hard to give Johnson another look at starter for the big club. Turning him into a RP'er might mess him up whereby he can't start later on, if needed. That brings me to the idea of moving Pom to the pen. Too many times he hits a wall or whatever it is after 4-5 innings. I'm NOT saying I'm for moving Pom to the pen right now, especially based on one game by Johnson, but if he keeps struggling to go 5-6 innings, maybe at some point, we have to consider it.
  20. moonslav59
    We also have some cap space to take on a salary dump at the deadline. I feel pretty good about where we are right now, too.
  21. moonslav59
    I think he looked pretty good. I'm encouraged.
  22. moonslav59
    Agree. Plus, Rutledge is out of options, and with our depth at 3B already at our 5th string player, keeping Rutledge around makes sense to me. Price up- Boyer down. Pablo up- Travis down. (I still think Pablo at 1B and eventually DH might end up being the long view, assuming he doesn't go the way of Castillo and Craig.) Eventually, we may see... Johnson up- Workman down or ABad traded or DFA's.
  23. moonslav59
    With HRam being the FT DH for the rest of the season, getting Young some PAs vs LHPs will be difficult. He's been a top 10 batter vs LHPs for the last 3 years combined. Sitting him vs lefties borders on criminal negligence. Is it time to think about sitting Beni vs LHPs (and maybe JBJ a few games here and there, too)? Career splits: Beni - .842 vs RHP/ .536 vs LHPs (68 PAs) vs RH'd starter: .848 vs LH'd starter: .387 (In the minors, Beni appeared to hit well vs all pitchers.) JBJ- .734 vs RHPs/ .694 vs LHPs (However, in 20 PAs vs LHPs this year, he's at .929.) (2016: .902 vs RHPs/.665 vs LHPs)
  24. moonslav59
    Sox OPS last 28 days: .968 Young (Hard to play him now that HRam is the FT DH.) .924 Bogey (Nice to see XB keeping his OBP over .400.) .920 Leon (Looks like he's a streaky hitter with enough hot streaks to stay.) .863 HRam (We need this guy to stay over .850.) .861 Pedey (Came out of his funk.) .836 Moreland (Staying consistently good at the plate.) .833 Betts (I expect him to get red hot once the weather warms up.) .757 JBJ (Better than sub .600.) .710 Vaz (Has slipped some, but over .700 is great!) .693 Rutledge (Good enough.) .624 Beni (I don't see this lasting too much longer.) .519 Marrero (Hard to expect more from your 5th string 3Bman.) Last 365 days... .905 Betts .876 HRam .831 Young .826 Moreland .802 Leon (384 PA sample size) .797 Pedey .780 Beni .778 Bogey .742 JBJ .709 Holt .704 Vaz .684 Marco
  25. moonslav59
    Surprising they're 13th in runs allowed and 19th in runs scored.
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