moonslav59

I agree. We also have to note that guys like JBJ go from a .363 OBP vs RHPs to .309 vs LHPs. His Power (SLG) falls even more (.538> .356). I think the big wild card in next year's line-up will be Beni. Can he lead off? Can he bat 2nd? Can he do this vs LHPs too? Having Beni first would help "lengthen" the line-up, whci would help to minimize the loss of Papi in the middle of the order by allowing Betts, Pedey, Bogey or JBJ to join the 2-6 slots with HanRam. If we have to use Pedey 1st and Bogey 2nd, we shorten the line-up. I'm hoping for something like this: Beni Bogey Betts HanRam Pedey JBJ v R / Young v L 3Bman v R/ JBJ v L DH v R / 3B v L Leon

The rumor last winter was that CLE wanted JBJ as part of any talks for one of their starters.

I understand that, and that is why I suggested a three way deal that would have sent Todd Frazier to CLE (the ML bat they wanted) plus maybe Swihart, Holt or some ML ready prospects like Owens, Johnson or near ready Kopech. Then, we'd send farther away prospects to Cincy. I realize this could all be a dream. I have said this many times. That's a big reason I don't blame our GMs for the moves they make. I never know what other options were out there. Maybe they made the best moves they could. I get that. However, based on other deals made over the past few years, I think we overpaid for a RP'er and largely unproven starter.

Some of you give up on guys too easily- after just a small sample size. Guerra is still ranked in the top 100 by one service. Allen may or may not amount to much, but Margot is still highly ranked. My position is, we could/should have added to the packager and gotten a starter.

If you don't call Espi, margot, Guerra and Allen "much", then I'm at a loss for words. I didn't say "most" of our future- just "much". Plus, it's not about me wanting to hold onto all our prospects. nothing is further from the truth. Many of my suggestions involved trading much more than what DD has traded already. In general, I don't trade several top prospects for A RP'er, especially one being paid near FA money anyways. just sign one. The Pom trade was a trade of an uncertain long-away future for 2.3 years of cost-controlled 3/4 slot pitching. I totally get why we did it. We had a serious need in our rotation, just like when we traded for Peavy. I'm not blaming DD for doing it. I didn't blame Ben for trading Iggy. That's not the same as disagreeing or wanting better, as long as I was willing to give up more.

Agreed, but my point is that although guys like Hill, Shaw, Hernandez and Marrero don't look like the PH'ing types, they may still represent an upgrade at bat over these slumping players (catchers). That's one reason I suggested possibly carrying 3 catchers- just so we can PH for two of them and still have defensive coverage. PH Young for the starting catcher in the 6th or 7th inning, and then PH Shaw or whoever in the 8th or 9th for the 2nd catcher.

...and Palmeiro won a GG by playing something like 60 games at 1B one year.

True- my bad, but Moore is similar and Liriano was much cheaper, but a big gamble that in hindsight worked well for TOR.

I just brought up Moore's name, since he was clearly "available", but we'll never know if he was really an option. Liriano was a much cheaper option, but also not as sure of a bet of being good as Pom was. I was just responding to a post that said nothing else was available.

I have mentioned the low cost of Pomeranz as a big plus several times. I'd still take Moore at $26M/3, and more importantly, his $2.8M luxury tax figure over 2 arb years of Pomeranz, which will likely count as more than $2.8M a year against the 50% luxury tax this year. Yes, Pom would take $26M/3 right now, as it would likely beat his arb numbers. It's hard to know what he could make that 3rd year, and remember, all of Moore's years are team options, so nothing is guaranteed. If Moore gets hurt or sucks, the contract could go away. So can arb years, but if we signed Pom to $26M/3, it couldn't.

Agreed, but of late, these guys' bats have been close to nonexistent as well: 2nd Half OPS: .440 Hanigan .500 Holaday .571 Hernandez .619 Shaw Last 28 days... .393 Hanigan .456 Leon (That's sub Marrero territory!) .485 Shaw (same here!) .625 Vazquez Last 14 days.... .127 Shaw (that's his OPS not his BA! He's 1 for his last 23.) .269 Leon (2 for his last 28!) .524 Yoiung .576 JBJ .580 Holt (supposedly our 3B savior) .671 Pedey .686 HanRam

I don't "blame" DD for trying to make us into a contender in one year. I disagree with his choices, but they were based in sound reasoning, so I draw the line at "blame". I am not calling for his removal. I've never said he's doing a bad job. I liked the Ziegler trade. I liked the Carson Smith trade. I'm against big signings like CC, Pablo, HanRam and Price, but I totally understand why we needed to sign a big pitcher. I looked at our roster in the spring and projected a 1st place team that had "less holes and more options to fill those holes than any other AL team". Hoiw can that be called "blame"? Criticism of a few selected moves is not "blame". I guess we can argue semantics, and if you want to view me as "blaming DD for a first place finish", then go ahead. My beef is with the idea that we sacrificed too much of our future for a near market p[aid closer and a SP'er with a limited sample size of success and no track record of longevity. I realize my alternative suggestions are based on conjecture that might be wildly improbable, so that's another reason I do not see myself as laying blame on anyone.

I'll take the extra year of Moore and project he will return to form. Pomeranz has just 3 months of "form" to "return to". He's injured too. Don't get me wrong, I like Pom. I think he will likely win the 3rd slot next year over ERod and Wright/Buch. His contractual cost is low. However, Moore has a longer history of doing very well, and that 3rd year tips the balance for me.

Wouldn't it be something if the two met this year? I'd rather see Lester vs Papi.

Frankly we'll have enough youth on the bullpen as it is, we always do. Having a couple accomplished veterans who have Been There and Done That is very valuable... For much of the year, our pen was a disaster. We should not forget that. One reason our pen has looked good recently was that we picked up Ziegler, Uehara came back from injury and Tazawa improved. Those three are FAs after this year, so I would not rely on just "promising" youth and a revitalized Kelly and returning Smith to fill the holes left by these 3 guys. Pretty well set pen pieces: Kimbrel, Smith, Buch, Kelly & Ross (but we should count on 1 being hurt or struggling) We have some very promising arms, but I would just leave open 1-2 slot for these guys to win: Scott, Abad, Barnes, Hembree, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Workman, Ramirez

I think Koji will be in demand though, if he does pitch well in the postseason. Any team with a young closer and dreams of contending would want such a solid veteran professional behind him. I think we have the potential for a rock solid rotation next year, much better optics on the starters than we had this time last season Porcello Price Wright Pomeranz E-Rod That's an impressive rotation in which any member of the rotation could wind up in any "slot." Pomeranz, Wright and E-Rod have already demonstrated the ability to pitch like top of the rotation guys for partial seasons, Porcello may have won the CYA this year, and Price is a much better bet to normalize his performance than he is to continue to perform as awkwardly as he did this year. If the chips fall average we should have a strong durable rotation full of #3 types, which, with a lineup as strong as ours ought to be, I'll happily take and should be enough to keep us in the playoff hunt. If we get a little lucky we could wind up with multiple top of the rotation caliber performances next year and that's exciting. Our starters led MLB in 2nd half WAR this year. We were also 11 points ahead of the second place AL team in 2nd half ERA- 79 BOS 90 TOR, NYY, DET With Buch in the mix, we are not only strong, but deep. Bullpen: Kimbrel Smith Kelly * Barnes * * I'm not confident enough in Smith as our new number 2 pen guy. I'd like to see him as the co-7th inning guy with another out of system RP'er and a new #2 guy as well. I think Kelly has a lot of upside, and the starter who misses out on the rotation can help as well. Ross is good, but the rest have promise but I have no real feeling of confidence. The good thing is that if we pick up a number 2 and a number 4, we'll have a lot of promising pitchers fighting for the 7 slot: 1 Kimbrel 2 ______ 3 Smith 4 ______ 5 Kelly 6 Ross 7 (6th starter), Abad, Scott, Barnes, Hembree, Elias, Owens, Johnson I leave asterisks open here because quite frankly, we're going to probably have a revolving door of several names in the last 4 bullpen slots. Barnes struggled a little towards the end of the year but I think he did enough to ensure he's in the mix. He's a very talented releiver who just needs to take a step or two forward with his command, reminds me a lot of Manny Delcarmen but with a better fastball. I do think Kelly is going to thrive in a bullpen role as well, and we have enough pieces to fit around that assuming Carson Smith is healthy. Love to have Koji back because it would reduce the number of wild card slots, but at the end of the day the bullpen is going to be an issue to sort out every single year so from this far out, this is alright. Lineup: C: Leon -- he earned the first crack at the job, I don't expect the level of offensive dominance he showed this year, but a ~.720-~.750 OPS with a few going over the wall will make me happy, especially considering that Leon is an excellent defender. Agreed, and with Vaz, Swihart and Holaday in reserve, I think we'll be fine, even if the offense is not there next year at C. 1B: Hanley -- no need to rock the boat here, Hanley was fine at first base, and has sulked in the past when he was put in a position in which he was uncomfortable. Defense is an issue, but not enough of an issue to risk a sulking Hanley. He's out first baseman going forward. First, we have to know he does not like the DH position to consider the "sulking" aspect of moving him. I agree that aspect is a possibility. I might try having HanRam DH vs RHPs and play 1B vs LHPs to keep him somewhat sharp and "in the game". That would allow Young to DH vs LHPs. The problem is, who plays 1B vs RHPs? Shaw ( a great fielding 1Bman)? Pablo? Swihart? Travis (later)? We might just have to go with HanRam FT out of the fact that we have no other choice. 2B: Pedroia -- still concerned about the fact that Pedey has managed to get himself hurt every single year including this year. On field performance is much better, but those injuries are going to catch up with him eventually. Glad we have a couple guys who can slot in and play 2B well enough if needed, it looks like the franchise is thinking along the same lines. Would not be surprised to see Marco Hernandez making a month's worth of starts at 2B sometime next season. Also would not be surprised to see SS prospect Mauricio Dubon playing a large minority of his games at second base next year -- just in case. We could also see Moncada at 2B, if needed. SS: Bogaerts -- bit of a disappointment down the stretch, but still satisfactory. No need to rethink SS at this time. Agreed, but his slight decline in SS defense is worrisome, especially at his age. 3B: Shaw? This is the position that is in flux. I expect absolutely nothing out of the Panda, and don't even consider him a 3B until he proves otherwise. Honestly I could see us going out to acquire a 3B if a good one becomes available, but I don't see the team breaking the bank for one with Moncada in the wings. I think if Shaw can't improve, he's used as a placeholder until Moncada is ready. With that said, it could be years for a guy like Moncada to really get up to MLB speed so we may be arguing over 3B for a while to come. I could see us looking for a one year "fix" or "bridge" at 3B. Maybe a trade for Frazier and Robertson with the CWS could be arranged. OF: Benintendi-JBJ-Betts-Young might be one of the best 4 man outfields in the game. Yes, but after those 4, we're down to Holt, Swihart and a not ML ready Basabe. Bench Young Holt Hernandez Vazquez I like our extended (AAA) depth as well: C/LF/1B: Swihart 1B: Travis 2B/3B/DH: Moncada SS/IF: Dubon SS: Marrero OF: Castillo/Brentz/Ramos Maybe Holaday and Rutledge can stick around. Again, should be very solid. 2 solid multi position guys, a good lefty masher, and a very very good defensive catcher. Losing papi is going to hurt, but we still look stronger than most other teams on offense, defense and pitching plus added flexibility and depth. All in all I'd say the roster is good enough to compete in 2017. There's some obvious flaws an issues, and we'll be feeling the lack of Big Papi unless we bring in a bat to replace him, which we might but I don't see an overwhelmingly desperate need to. But this team is good enough to fight for the crown without a major shakeup I think. And of course we'll find out what DD thinks after the postseason. I could see us signing Beltran or maybe trading for a Todd Frazier type, then picking up a couple decent pen arms and see what happens. We could reset the luxury tax clock and use the trade deadline to fix any holes that materialize.

I could see that happening, even if he just does so-so, but I also would not mind if we go in another (younger) direction.

I have a lot of hope for Pomeranz as well. That's why I don't play the "blame "game". I really liked Kimbrel when we traded for him too, so even though I hated that deal too, I'm not "blaming" DD for filling a huge hole in our roster. I just thought we overpaid based on what I have seen other teams give up for similar players. Another reason I avoid "blaming" anyone is that I do not know if my suggested alternatives were really viable options. Last winter, I talked a lot about Carrasco, Salazar, Quintana and Sale, but their GMs might have been asking for Betts, Bogey and Moncada for one, so I'd have easily said no to those options. I also suggested options like moving Buch or Kelly to the closer role, but we'll never know how that might have worked out. My theory has been that we should be able to get someone better than Pomeranz had we offered Espi, Swihart, Owens and Johnson. I think many would agree, but until we see an actual name, my theories are just that- theories. I don't like much of what DD has done so far, but we're in the playoffs with a lot of things seemingly going right for us, so how can I "blame" him for getting us to first place from last place? I hated the Pablo, HanRam, Dempster and Masterson signings, but I actually felt Ben was on the right path. His moves were justifiable. He looked to get offense after 2014 and surely would have gotten pitching after 2015 had he been given the chance. He built up the farm, much of which DD used to get Kimbrel, Pom, Zeigler, Hill and others. I don't blame Ben for 3 last place finishes in 4 years. I was critical of of many of Theo's moves, especially after the Nomar trade, but I did not want him or Ben let go. I was the last guy to call for Valantin's removal. I have said I wanted JF gone, but never got into pissing matches about every move he makes. I don't blame him either. I like where we're at right now. It's hard to throw blame when you are one of the top favorites to get to the WS AND you have an excellent farm with a strong core of recent grads as well.

Anything goes once the playoffs arrive. All you can do is try to build the best team and be set up for the first game (series). I like our chances. I'd love to see Papi go out on top of the world in front of Theo and the Cubs.

Nope. I'm not complaining. We're in. We're rested. We have the best offense. We have the best 2nd half starters. Our pen improved. Our D is good.

We probably needed another reliever this year, so losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa puts us maybe 4 down. Maybe, just maybe, Carson Smith fills one and Kelly or Scott fills another, but I'm still think 2 significant RP'er acquisitions are called for. The thing about getting a big bat is that it basically blocks Moncada and/or writes of Pablo's $19.5M. I'm wondering if we might wait to see how things shake out, maybe pick-up a one year bridge batter, and take a look at the deadline, if needed.

Agreed, but what does that have to do with sitting half your line-up when a 3 day rest is coming up?

Lineup Keepers: 1. Betts All around player, MVP candidate and good team mate. Could esily keep gettine better. 2. Pedroia Very good fielder, excellent hitter and team captain material. Could possibly decline from this year's performance level. 3. Bogaerts Very good fielder, expected 300 hitter and very durable Decent fielder. I expected further improvement on defense, but he may have actually stepped back a little from 2015. 4. Rameriz Acceptable fielder, probable 280 streaky hitter with much needed power Barel acceptable on D to me. If the DH job suits him, I'd slide him over to DH, even if just vs RHPs as Young DHs vs LHPs. 5. Bradley Gold glove outfielder with maybe a 270 avg and some power I can see 30+ HRs next year. I'm looking at his OBP more than BA and would love to see more even splits. 6. Benintendi Solid young outfielder with probable solid BA and good speed, top of the order type Hopefully, he can play FT and then we can use Young at DH vs lefties. I love this kid! 7. Young Good defensive outfielder and good hitter against lefties He's great vs lefties and should be in the top 5-6 when we face a LH'd starter. Marginal Players: 1. Leon Good defensive catcher, hitting may fall to 250ish avg, overweight and DP in waiting. I think he'll be fine next year- not great, but fine. 2. Hernandez Good utility infielder, young, strong and fast with good hitting approach I still see upside on this kid. I hope he gets a long look sometime, but with a contending team, that may be hard. 3. Vazquez Good defensive catcher with so far 220ish avg potential Sample size is still to small to know much about his offense, Love his D. 4. Holt Good utility player who tends to wear down over season He actually did not wilt this year, but he did have the concussion.I'm not sure we need Holt, Hernandez and Swihart all on the 25 man roster, especially if Moncada or Pablo make the cut. 5. Shaw Good fielder at either 1st or 3rd but unimpressive hitter He's an excellent defensive 1Bman, but likely will not hit well enough to be a FT 1Bman. His D at 3B is fine, but he may be lucky to just win a platoon role at 3B. Probably Won’t be Here Next Year but tradable: 1. Hill Decent fielder but unimpressive hitter 2. Holaday Decent catcher but again unimpressive hitter I think with hanigan going, Holaday may stay on, but a lot depends on what the plans are for Swihart. 3. Marrero Utility infielder/outfielder but unimpressive hitter Still has options, so he'll be at AAA next year. 4. Hannigan Decent catcher but very weak hitter Prospects Currently On Board With a Chance of Making the Team 1. Swihart Good young talent who can play OF, 1st, catcher and PH. 2. Moncada Hot prospect but needs to develop. Maybe later in year 3. Sandoval High salaried guy with ML experience who needs to show determination 4. Rutledge Possible returner since he might fit the 3rd base needs. A long shot at this point 5. Devers Another possible 3rd base prospect with some power. Not in 2017. 6. Travis Probably needs time to recover from off year and major injury This team for 2017 is marginal at catcher, is missing a DH and is weak at 3rd base. We really could use a power bat as our competitors currently have more than we do in that way. I need to think more about the pitching, especially in the relief area. I put out priorities as such: 1) Top set-up man that can fill in as closer, if needed 2) Decent middle RP'er. 3) 3Bman with power (probably on a short term deal)

I'm wondering if a big priority is to reset the luxury tax this winter. If we don't, I think we'll be at 50%. Here's a look at the contracts: Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) to $17.25M (giving both). It's likely we'll let Hanigan go and keep Buch, so +$14.3M Updated TOTAL (w/Buch): $138.95M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.0K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $750K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.05M TOTAL of 16 players: ~$159M (with Buch and no Hanigan) The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada TOTAL: ~$13M Grand Total: $172M Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $184M That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. Let's assume it goes to $209M That would mean we'll have about $25M to fill several holes. Finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe an upgrade at SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?). Holes and possible in-system solutions: DH: 1) HanRam to DH and Shaw/Pablo/Swihart/Travis to 1B with Moncada/Shaw/Holt/Pablo/Hernandez at 3B 2) Young and Pablo platoon at DH RP: 1) Carson Smith replaces Uehara 2) Hembree/Scott replaces Tazawa 3) Acquisition replaces Ziegler Our pen as is looks like this for 2017: RP1: Kimbrel RP2: ______ RP3: C Smith RP4: ______ RP5: Ross RP6: 1 from- Buch/Erod/Wright/Pomeranz RP7: Kelly Others: Barnes, Abad, Scott, Hembree, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Workman, Ramirez, Martin, Haley, Jerez, Cuevas

https://thebaseballsite.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/historical-home-field-advantage-in-the-postseason/comment-page-1/ Here's a read. It talks about when home field advantage wasn't given to the winningest team, yet the HFA led to a very high winning %.