moonslav59

It's only Part I, which is basically looking at ideas for changes. Part II will be after moves have been made and the roster is pretty much set for opening day.

Bradley's numbers outside of his 29 game hitting streak, in IMO, are concerning, especially when viewed with his previous years results in mind: 127 G, .232/.317/.416/.733 JBJ just may be a streaky hitter his whole career, so it may not be fair to view his numbers this way. I do admit, I am concerned about his future and how long future slumps may last (or dominate a season).

This is what I think might happen: Sign Beltran and Boone Logan. Trade Swihart, Shaw, Basabe, Owens or Johnson For Robertson and Frazier

You "Castillo" Panda or trade him if he has a spring revival.

Beltran is best used as a DH. Beni and Young make a great LF combo. I can't see us getting both EE and CB.

I don't think we really "know" what we have in Swihart. I'm thinking a trafe for Todd Frazier (1 year left) should not cost much and would be a great bridge to Moncada.

I don't make definitive judgments on even a full season sample size, especially with a young player. That doesn't mean I disregard smaller sample sizes or trends. To me, a players minor league numbers matter, especially, if the sample sizes are more than 500 PAs each per AA and AAA levels. Take Shaw, for instance, I showed how he has been below his AA & AAA norm in 5 of his last 8 half seasons. I thought his ending to 2015 and start to 2016 were likely not sustainable. I never said he definitely would fall back to his norm, but I thought the odds were that he would. JBJ had very good numbers on the farm. I thoguth his slow start was likely a fluke. I also mentioned his torrid August of 2015 was probably a fluke as well and that he'd probably end up somewhere between his minor league norm and his 2015 final numbers. I realize discounting his 2014 ML numbers, especially a pretty significant sample size may seem like cherry-picking, and maybe it was. His recent slump looks a lot like 2014. I'm not perfect. I don't pretend to think my system of beliefs is better than anyone else's, especially the Sox brass, but I do try to stay consistent in my methodology.

...and yes, a 2 month sample size is small. Leon's history is longer than his most recent 5-6 weeks. He was god-awful in many previous sample size, as has been JBJ, I might add, but JBJ hqad nice minor league numbers: Leon did not.

No, I criticized how it seemed the site's mood went from JBJ was untouchable to let's trade him. I'm not even sure, if it was the same people who flipped, so my criticism was probably off-base. I'm fine with people getting down on slumping players. It's the definitive statements that bug me. Like early last year, we hard, "I guess we know JBj will never be able to hit ML pitching" and "Leon had proven he can't hit in MLB." And, those were based on bigger sample sizes than what we are talking about here. Yeah, I got down on Leon, but it was more on JF for not PH'ing for him. I mentioned his starting catching job may be on the line. With Swihart and Vaz on the roster, that might have been the case, even if Leon had not slumped this badly.

Here's one idea: Sign: Encarnacion & Boone Logan (LHP) Trade: Blake Swihart, Travis Shaw, and any three from: Michael Chavis, Trey Ball, Josh Ockimey, CJ Chatham, Henry Owens & Brian Johnson (maybe we have to include Basabe or Travis) For: David Robertson & Todd Frazier This leaves us with.... SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Buch, Wright, Pom (LR) RP: Robertson, Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Ross, one from: Barnes/Hembree/Abad/Scott C: Leon, Vaz 1B: Ramirez 2B: Pedroia 3B: Frasier SS: Bogaerts LF: Beni-Young CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: EE Utility: Holt, Hernandez (Moncada) Line-up is kind off righty dominated, but... 1) Beni v R/ Pedey v L 2) Pedey v R/ Bogey v L 3) Betts 4) EE 5) HanRam 6) Frasier 7) Bogey v R/Young v L 8) JBJ 9) Leon/Vaz

He's "looked bad" his whole career, except for a 2-3 month stretch. He's also looked bad over the last 5-6 weeks- hardly a tiny sample size. There's a big difference. I never get down on a player over a tiny sample size. Do you doubt he has a lock on the FT catcher job next year?

Daniel Murphy hardly faded anywhere. The guy led the NL in OPS (.985) and SLG (.595) this year. He also led the league in 2Bs with 47 and has 25 HRs and 100+ RBIs.

Here are some possible free agents the Sox may be interested in: 3B: Justin Turner, Martin Prado, Luis Valbuena 1B/3B: Pedro Alvarez DH/1B: Encarnacion, Napoli, Morales ($11M option w KC) 1B/LF: A Lind, M Moreland, B Moss DH/OF: C Beltran, Trumbo, J Bautista, M Holliday C: Wilson Ramos (then trade 1-2 of ours?) SP: Brett Anderson, Jason Hammel RP: (Listed all) John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla, Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz, Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos, Joe Smith, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen. Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *, Brad Ziegler

I was surprised Leon kept being trotted out there. No PH'er. He looked totally lost. I have serious doubts about him having the starting job next spring.

If they decide to leave the rotation alone and just add maybe one or two new pen arms to join Carson Smith and one of the starters joing the pen, they'll be enough money for EE. EE would effectively block one of the kids at some point. I think we go with what we have and maybe add a short term 3B fix or LF/DH bridge to when Moncada, Devers and Travis are good and ready.

Yeah, I think I cut and pasted from an old list. I went back and corrected, and took Coyle off the list as well.

The season ended sooner than any of us hoped. The baseball Gods have started to whisper, "Wait till next year!" Here's a look at what we have to work with this winter... The 40 (39) man roster- listed by roster seniority: (Possibly on bubble underlined- some due to having no options remaining) Pedroia, Buchholz (option), Wright, Vazquez, Holt, Bradley, Workman, Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, Rodriguez, Sandoval (a possible placed on the Castillo/Craig plan), H Ramirez, Porcello Ross, Marrero, N Ramirez, Johnson, Owens, Kimbrel, Jerez, Hernandez, Young, Price, Smith, Elias Rutledge, Leon, Pomeranz, Abad, Benintendi, Holaday, Scott, Moncada (Players with no options remaining: Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Hembree, Sandy, HanRam, Porcello, Elias, Leon, Pomeranz, Abad, Holaday) Rule 5: assuming no acquisitions (unlikely), we have room to add one rule 5 player to our 40 man roster, unless we DFA one of the underlined players above. The following players will be eligible for the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2016: Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Anyelo Leclerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla Assuming Buch’s option is taken, Hanigan’s is not, and all our free agents are not included in our 2017 starting point, here's how I see our 2017 depth chart at each position. I am placing some players at multiple positions, if they are better than whatever else we have there. SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright, Pomeranz, Buchholz (assuming option given) Kelly, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley, Cuevas, Kopech (not 2017: Groome) RP: Kimbrel, (Buchholz, Pomeranz or Wright), Smith, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Hembree Abad, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Martin, Jerez C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart, Holaday, Romanski, Butler 1B: Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Pablo, Holt, Travis, Longhi (not 2017: Ockimey) 2B: Pedroia, Betts, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon) SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon) 3B: Bogaerts, Shaw, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Pablo, Rutledge, (Swihart?), (not 2017: Devers) LF: Betts, Benintendi, Young, Bradley, Swihart, Holt (not 2017: Basabe) CF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt RF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt, Swihart DH: Ramirez, Young, Moncada, Pablo, Castillo, Witte In my mind, nobody is untouchable, but clearly there are guys you try very hard to hold onto. Here's my top 15 list of who to keep (in order with last controlled year): 1) Betts (2020-I might try to lock him up soon.) 2) Benintendi (2022- He's got several more years of team control than Bogey & Bradley) 3) Bradley (2020- Hope for more consistency) 4) Bogey (2019- just 3 yrs left- Dubon in the wings) 5) ERod (2021 or 2022- still has enormous upside) 6) Moncada (??- still has top value) 7) Porcello (2019- high priced but indispensable) 8) Pedey (2021- still a force but will likely decline) 9) Groome (??- far away but with a lot of promise) 10) Kopech (??- may be ready by mid 2017) 11) Swihart (??- I feel many GM want this kid.) 12) Devers (?? May be blocked.) 13) Wright (2020- 4 years is nice) 14) Vazquez (2020- hope his offense pick up) 15) Leon (2019- likely to see his offense reduced) With three catchers in my top 15 and the catcher situation in MLB at a near all time low, I'm pretty sure that if a blockbuster is made, Swihart or Vazquez will be included. With Swihart's value higher at catcher, I think he's the one to go. With 3B in question, one could argue for keeping both Moncada and Devers until we know which one we want. I'm thinking we don't have that luxury. We are going to have to choose one and trade the other. Depending on whom our trading partner is and if they want a more immediate payoff or not, I'm thinking we may get a 1 year bridge at 3B and go with Devers. Moncada has tremendously high trade value. I'm not devaluing these kids, but I think it might make more sense to trade Moncada and Swihart as part of a package to get an ace type pitcher. I think those two offer a great start to a phone call. Now, let’s look at the contracts and luxury tax implications. (Contract cost is the average yearly salary, including bonuses, which is what the luxury tax uses.) Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.) Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout): Updated TOTAL: $137.65M Arbs (9 players): Bogaerts:$650K > ~$6.0M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$4.0M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.6 (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.3M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.2K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3) TOTAL ARBS: ~$21.85M TOTAL of 16 players: ~$159.5M (with Buch) The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$13.5M Grand Total: ~ $173M Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $185M That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M. If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to 30M to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number. $25 to 30M may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er upgrade. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably acquire an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF (Turner/Todd Frazier?) and/or DH/ LF (Beltran?). There are countless ideas out there to improve this team and try to make up for the loss of Big Papi. I welcome your ideas, suggestions and critiques.

That's one reason I think the idea is a nonstarter. We're keeping Buch. Castillo does not count on the luxury tax, and that's where he'll stay.

Tough way to go out. We had so many chances. It's hard to not let three games dominate how we feel right now, but this team fought hard to the end. At least I feel better about our future now than I did last winter.

Well, it's Henry's money. Chances are we'll be right about at the luxury tax limit next year, which is 50% for the Sox. For Henry to "break even" on Castillo, he'd have to pay about $30M of the $46M remaining, The tax would be $15M- making it about a wash. Castillo still has some value to us as a far-fetched chance at redemption and OF insurance, so I think we'd want something back... not much. I doubt we'd deal Buch for a low-level prospect. If Seattle agreed to take Castillo and $20M plus Buch, I think we'd still want more than a low-level prospect.

Maybe I should have said "a few people" not "people", but there are people down on JBJ on other threads as well, as they have been with various players as they slump in tiny sample size periods. This should not be something I need to explain.

Mine is.

Exactly, and the very low luxury tax cost of the two guys from the CWS would allow us to extend and sign future players and still stay under or near the tax limit. C Sale $6.5M for 3 more years Quintana $4.2M for 4 more years (luxury tax cost not contractual cost) JBJ will likely cost more than Quintana in arbs...maybe more than Sale too!

And, he's got nerves of steel.

There's another aspect to the equation on trading JBJ for Sale or Quintana. Once we get an ace, we either have enormously upgraded our pen by moving Pomeranz, Wright or Buch to the pen or we get a fine player by trading one of our "excess" starting pitchers. We could also sign Beltran to play LF vs RHP/DH vs LHP as a bridge to Basabe or a possible move of Moncada to LF. (Young could play LF vs LHPs.) The downgrade from JBJ to Beltran/Young is significant, don't get me wrong, but the upgrade at SP'er and bullpen would be gigantic. I love JBJ and want to keep the 3 B's as much as anyone, but guys like Sale & Quintana don't come along very often (assuming they are available).