moonslav59

I didn't realize he was already 33 (turns 34 next Sept), so you are probably right about the "dump" nature of his contract. He's owed $179M/7 counting his $7M buyout for 2024 when Votto will start the season at age 40. Or, he could be paid $192M/8 if the $20M option is taken. Giving the Reds Castillo plus prospects makes some sense, but Castillo costs nothing on the luxury tax. I think DD would rather give them Sandoval, who does and will count against the tax. He is owed $58M/3 or $70M/4. I think his deal would more than even up the financial nature of Votto's deal, so we'd probably have to pay some of Pablo's deal. It would essentially make Votto's deal worth $121M/7 or $134M/8. The Reds would still want a major haul of prospects, even with Pablo. I'm not sure an offer of Pablo, Swihart, Basabe, Owens and Johnson would come close.

MLBTR has this on Qualifying Offers this winter: For locks, I’d list Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo. That’s nine right there. As for players that I think have a chance of receiving them — we’ll say 20 percent or more, to put a rough number on it… basically as a means of illustrating that it wouldn’t shock me — I’ll list Neil Walker, Michael Saunders, Wilson Ramos, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters.

Have any of these teams had sustained success over, say, the last ten years? Compared to who? The Sox with 3 last place "evaporations" in the last 5 years? The Guardians have made the playoffs in 9 times since 1995 (22 years). They've won 80 or more games 7 times in the last 10 years and 90 or more 3 times. The Sox have won 80 or more games in 7 of the last 10 and 90 or more in 6 of 10. They've made the playoffs in 5 of the last 11 years. The Rays have made the playoffs in 4 of the last 9 years. They have won 80 or more games in 7 of the last 10 years (same as the Sox) and 90 or more in 5 of the last 10 years- one less than the Sox. They've made the playoffs in 4 of the last 9 years- pretty close to the same as the Sox 5 of 11.

The problem with Florida baseball teams is the fact that many people living their are transplants from elsewhere. They are Yankee and Red Sox fans and never will be Rays fans. They only go to games when their team plays there. I see that some here in Houston. I think North Carolina would do well with a MLB team, but the population is spread out, and finding a central location may be too far away from everyone.

sale or Sale? I want Quintana.

Well, we need a DH. As much as HanRam may have surprised us with decent 1B defense, he was still a negative this year on defense. I'm not sure how his psyche fits with the DH role, but surely an argument can be made to move HanRam to DH next year, even if just vs RHPs as Young could DH vs lefties-assuming we view Beni as a FT LF'er. That leaves 1B and 3B as two of our highest need areas. We could try to find a player that can play both and let the chips fall where they may. One of those chips could be Swihart. Since Moncada and Devers both look to be vying for the future 3B job, I think Swihart's best chance might be at 1B. I still have not given up on Swihart as a catcher, but I think Sox brass likes Vaz better. Leon's hot streak has thrown him into the mix. One of these three may be traded this winter, and if it's not Swihart, then catcher will be his major position.

The A-B free agent thing ended years ago. It's all about FAs who have a Qualifying Offer made by their team or not. If we signa player with a QO offered, we'll lose a first round pick. If we sign a second player with a QO, we'd lose our 2nd round pick and so on.

The fact that we went hard after Beltran at the trade deadline may be a hint at who we get for our DH next year. Beni's good start to his ML career may lessen that desire, but Beltran really isn't a great fielder anyway, so the DH role looks better for him anyways. I'm totally sold on the validity of a Beni-Young LF platoon. I could also see DD thinking of a Pablo-Young DH platoon as a real possibility. A HanRam-Young platoon at DH, with HanRam playing 1B when not at DH could work as well. Maybe Swihart, Shaw or Pablo could play 1B when HanRam is at DH. Maybe we could pick up a one year corner IF bridge to Moncada/Devers. We have a glut of ML players that can play 3B, but none of them are players that we can really trust to be a plus at 3B. Our 3B WAR ranked 30th this year. Shaw, Pablo, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Rutledge, Marrero and some even put Bogey as a 3B option at some point down the road. (Devers is probably more than a year away. Dalbec and Chavis are 2 or more years away, if ever.) Picking up a 3Bman or corner IF'er almost certainly means soneone will be traded (Pablo/Marrero?) I don't see many RP'ers on the FA market, but the closers will be in super high demand.

Nobody would force the Reds to pay a penny of Votto's deal. Look at what players of lesser value are getting these days! I think the CWS have a big decision to make. They may decide to keep trying to win it within the window of Sale (3 years) and Quintna (4 yrs), then their player availability is gone. I get that. However, there has been talk that they may blow it all up. Usually, when teams do that, they look to dump the highest salary players and players who may not be around by the time the team looks to be ready to compete again. These days, teams can rebuild in 2-3 years. The Sox showed they can go from last to first to last within one year of each other. If I was a CWS fan, I wouldn't want to trade Quintana due to the 4 years of control, but as a Sox fan, he's the top prize due to the 4 years and the $4.2M luxury tax cost. We could try to expand the trade to involve Robertson and/or Frazier, but the return would have to be enormous. One way to lessen the return would be to take Jamie Shields. I don't want the guy, but his contract would really make a difference on what the CWS would want in return. I think we could take Shields, Frazier, Robertson and Quintana and be very close to the luxury tax limit. We might need to trade Buch or someone else to get under the limit, but we could get something (cheap RP'er?) for him. So, what might it take to get these three players plus the Shields' dump? Would the CWS want immediate ML ready prospects or would they look at a 2-3 year window for readiness? I think Moncada would have to be a must. We'd have to give a catcher, and Swihart probably has the highest value, but if they wanted Vazquez, we could give him instead. I'm thinking Devers would give them team control years starting in 2-3 years. They'll want pitching and may demand ERod, but I'd try to get them to take Kopech and Owens/Johnson instead. Maybe others like Basabe, Travis and Dubon would need to be added. Maybe they'd want Shaw or Holt. Maybe Barnes or Hembree. Maybe just about all of these guys. Maybe they'd demand JBJ, but he's got the same 4 years of control as Quintana, so I don't see the reasoning there. Getting JBJ for Sale makes a little more sense, so maybe we'd need to take Sale over Quintana, and Sale seems to be the one they'd rather deal. So, is this too little or too much to offer for Sale, Robertson, Frazier and Shields ($44M/2 owed)? Moncada Devers Kopech Swihart or Vazquez Shaw or Holt Owens or Johnson 2 from Basabe, Chavis, Travis or Dubon Other trade options might be out there, and I know I must sound like a broken record on the White Sox, but I do think we match up well with them.

...JBJ does have it and wasn't able to stay focused and that cost the Sox. Not all struggles and slumps can be blamed on lack of focus. Sometimes, it's mechanics gone awry. Sometimes, it's about trying to hard to "focus" and losing the being "in the zone". Sometimes slumps might just be explainable. I sure it will come up along with player changes needed to improve the team, but should we also look at the coaches and manager to see if improvements need to be made there as well. I don't disagree, but I doubt we change any coaches or managers this winter.

And a 4 or 5 year deal would likely block Moncada or Devers (or Travis) in 2 years.

We "gelled" on the 11 game win streak.

I think everyone would rather have EE than CB, but it's about the years and costs.

Good point on Kopech. I'm thinking Swihart's best spot might be 1B, but I'm fine with letting have a go at 3B.

If he's not in shape, we'll know right away. I'd think we'd check in before all 3B options are taken to see where he's at. If he's lost a lot of wait, it's still a question mark at 3B, especially on defense. Watching Cleveland's 3B defense last night and seeing the Sox finished in last place with 3B WAR pretty much tells us where we can improve the most going into next year.

I thought Price would be better than this, and I was still against the signing. Let's hope he's like Beckett, who took a year to "adjust" before bringing us a ring. Winning a ring might be difficult without Papi. It hasn't been done for a century.

I'd like to see us get a 1 year player at 3B (like Frazier), so Moncada and Devers have a chance to win the job for 2018 and beyond. I'm also fine with signing Turner to 3-4 years and then either trading Devers or Moncada for something very special, or moving them to a new position (Moncada> LF? and Devers > 1B?)

I've always been super high on JBJ. I never gave up on him, even through his long slump. I think he could become more consistent, or at least lower or shorten the amount of slumps he has. I'm also okay with up and down players who end up with good numbers at the end. They often carry a team during rough stretches (like Napoli did).

I agree with everything here, except maybe the Kopech thing. I think we may bring in a cheap back-up 3Bman on a 1 year deal (Valbuena?)

I agree, and on a team looking to improve in several areas, we may not have the luxury of waiting until one of our three catchers proves he's the starter. I trust Sox management to know who has the best chance at being our catcher going forward, and we may have to trade the other to get where we need to be at 3B, DH, and RP'er.

I do think he's still a catcher option, and with our catcher situation more in question now than two months ago, I can see the position for keeping him. I love Swihart. I think he's going to be a very good offensive player. I'm not sure about the defense, but catcher defense takes time to master. Remember, VTek was not really a plus defender until 31 -32 years old. I also realize we have 3 catchers in a league starving for catchers. I think Leon and Vaz are better defenders, and I'm super high on catcher defense. I think Swihart will likely be moved to LF, 3B or 1B with the Sox, so his value may be higher with another team as a catcher. (key word: may) I also know you have to give to get, and I value Swihart highly... both here and as trade bait.

Didn't Craig have 5 years? I think you're right. We may have to eat his contract or hope he becomes some sort of use- even if as a platoon DH.

My bad. I misread it.

Where have I come close to saying I've "given up" on Swihart? We are set in LF with Beni and Young. Moncada may end up in the OF, if we discover he'll never be a plus on D in the IF. Trading someone is not giving up on him, if we get someone like Robertson and Frazier in return! It's high praise. The next poster obviously thought my Swihart trade offer was too low, so I guess he thinks I'm over-valuing Swi.

We had some hard hit outs those last two innings. If one just found its way to a hit...