moonslav59

I'll miss them most, but the loss of Ziegler might hurt more than both of them.

Yeah, you're right. He got the sale part right. He got the totals wrong though. 2017 Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget 148.875M Signed (9): $31M Price, $22M Ramirez, $20.625M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $13.5M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrel, $6.5M Sale, $6.5M Young, $5.5M Moreland $25.9M Projected Arb (10): $5.7M Bogaerts, $4.7M Pomeranz, $3.3M Bradley, $2.6M Kelly, $2.2M Thornburg, $2.0M Abad, $1.8M Ross, $1.7M Holt, $1.3M Leon, $600K Workman $11.235M Others (21 x $535M minimum MLB salary): Betts, Benintendi, Rodriguez, Wright, Vazquez, Swihart, Smith, Barnes, Hernandez, Hembree, Owens, Johnson, Scott, Elias, Marrero, N Ramirez, Jerez, Brentz, ______, _______, _______ Total: $186.01M minus $250K frm Atlanta paying Kimbrel’s bonus= $185.76M Add $12.9M to player pension fund and the total is: $198.66M

He's wrong. He even got sale's salry count wrong. It's not $12M, it's $6.5M on the luxury budget. Maybe he's forgetting the player pension fund hit.

Agrred. I'd add Elias and.or Hembree to your #2. I don't think #3 is going to happen. We might need Swihart at C or use him in LF or (gasp) DH/1B.

Some points on Sale.... Sale has been in the top 6 Cy Young votes for 5 straight years. He's led the AL in HBP the last two years. He's never had an ERA over 3.41. Since 2012, among pitchers with 1000+ IP, Sale places... 2nd in ERA- at 74 behind only Kershaw (Scherzer 76, Price 78, Felix 79) 2nd in xFIP- at 75 4th in WHIP at 1.06 (just 0.01 behind Scherzer and Bumgarner) 3rd K-BB% at 22.3% (behind Kershaw & Scherzer) 4th in WAR at 26.2 (just behind Price at 26.4)

I hope so. One problem might be how does Sale handle the opening game of the playoffs? He's never been there.

I saw that. I guess that makes Hernandez our AAA depth. That's one way to rebuild the farm! (LOL)

A team "desperate" for starting pitching will call a team equally desperate to get under the luxury tax threshold. Apparently, DD is already getting plenty of phone calls asking about our pitching surplus. Wait it out, and I'm pretty sure someone will overpay.

Not a straight dump, but from the Sox perspective, that's a main reason for looking to trade him. I do think we could get a good prospect or a couple decent one, so that's not really a dump. I look at what some other oft-injured SP'ers have gotten on the FA market, and I see the lack of available SP'ers on the market now- injury history or not- and I think as teams get desperate, some GM will come calling for Buch and will overpay out of necessity.

As noted, Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters. Agreed, and some top of rotation pitchers too. Is it worth $13.5 million to find out whether Buchholz will exceed the projected 1.7 WAR (valued at $13.5 million)? You must think so, right?

Oh, I'm not denying that. But DD did have a fire sale with the Marlins after winning a WS ('97) and much of what he acquired helped them win another WS ('03) a few years later ( even though he wasn't technically with the team when they won that 2nd one). They also got some great draft picks by sucking after 1997 and before 2003. Josh Beckett was the second pick of the 1999 draft. Without him, they don't win in 2003. We might have to reset in 4-8 years.Something, some fans seem to think can't happen, because our farm will be replenished. It's hard to replenish without some high draft picks here and there. We won't be getting any in the next 3-4 years. Plus, it takes time for the picks to develop. Again, I'm happy with the trades. I'm happy overall, but I'm not going to sugar-coat our extended outlook to justify why the trades were good.

Yes. You are right. I stand corrected. Reddick never bit anyone in the ass.

At this point, is the top of the rotation upside still there? He has yet to put in a consistent run of good performances. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx...de=&season=all Erod only has 41 MLB starts spread over two seasons, so not having an extended time of TOR performance is not a big deal. 1) Maybe some of his poor performances were due to "tipping his pitches", which is something that should never happen again and is not skills related. 2) He has nasty stuff. I've never read otherwise from any scout or skill-rating service. 3) He has had some min stretches of brilliance at the ML level: 2nd half 2016: (14 starts) 3.24 ERA / 1.133 WHIP In 2015, he started 21 games. He let up 0-2 runs in 15 of them. He let up 3 runs in 2 others. That's 17 out of 21 games with 0-3 ERs allowed. He got shelled in the other 4, including 9 ERs in 4.1 IP, 8 in 5.0, 7 in 1.2 and 6 in 3.2 IP. Take away just those 4 games (30 ER in 14.2 IP), and ERod had 22 ERs in 107 IP in those other 17 starts for a 1.85 ERA. That's his rookie season at age 22!!! I know all pitchers would look much better on paper, if you took away their worst 20% starts, but ERod has shown greatness in his MLB short sample size, even if some has been scattered around.

I don't think they anticipated having Sale when they gave Buch his option either, but I agree, the odds are less than 50-50 Buch is traded by opening day. They might be even odds by 8/2/17.

Sounds like you're an expert on spreading s***.

I'm not sure if out of all the times they made it, those odds are actually lower than random. Therefore, they may not be "selling points" in DD's favor.

True, but the point was did the player traded away create more value after the trade than what we got in return. I see other examples: Melancon for Hanrahan & Holt Lowrie & Weiland for Melancon (if you just count his time here) HanRam and Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell (if you just count the control years of the original trade, and maybe even if you don't) Stephen Fife for Mirabelli Iggy and Montas for Peavy (who netted us Hembree & Escobar) Lackey for Kelly & Craig Cespedes and A Wilson for Porcello (if you only count the year of control we got from Rick)

Look at Detroit's farm system last year and this year. That's part of what DDism creates.

ERod is a keeper in my book. If Pom could fetch an Espi, trade him (or Buch), if we must trade someone.

I believe, he secretly thinks Buch will way outperform "Steamer's WAR projections", but he doesn't want to debunk his faith in those projections as his major measuring stick of player value over the years. Am I right, hill?

I get your point and don't disagree, but remember, O'Sullivan was our 10th guy on the opening day depth chart for SP'ers, and we ended up starting him 4 times in early May! Later, we had to trade "the next Pedro" for Pom Pom to come up with 5 decent starters. Granted, Buch was healthy when we "had to" trade for Pom, so that's a point in your corner, but waiting until things settle has it's merits, too.

Our pitching staff is set for the next 3 years with 3 CY type pitchers! Thats pretty badass. Now, when we start to shed payroll over the next three years with guys like Hanley, Buch, Panda, etc..we will then sign our young nucleus. Kimbrel has 2 years left, so the best chance window is really just 2 years not 3. We lose $25.5M off the budget next winter (Buch, Young & Moreland) and some more the following winter, so maybe replacing Kimbrel with an acquisition is possible. Devers > Pablo Travis> Moreland Swihart > Young Owens/Johnson> Buchholz and eventually, Hernandez> Holt Groome > Pom

Great post. Much shorter and direct than I could have put it. The new rules have changed the talent acquisition equation.

Winning the AL Central is like finishing 2nd or 3rd in the AL East. I repeat- whoop-dee-freakin-doo. I'll take the rings, even if it means a few last place finishes in the strongest division in the history of the world. I hope to hell DD doesn't go as long as Bobby C and win just one ring, but if he does, it better be with us in the next 3 years, or you're going to have to create a new ID.

I think the ability to use HanRam at DH quite a bit, as he has said he doesn't mind doing, is a big enough plus to outweigh the offense gained by Smith over Moreland. Whatever else we may get back from trading Buch or out of Buch by not trading him would be the gravy on this comp.