moonslav59

If there was a guarantee that a player would put up a 10 WAR in 2017, he'd probably get a $40-50M/1 year deal on the open market. WAR is not a tool to project future WAR or dollar worth. It is a measure of past performance level.

Agreed. Half way through 2014, we all knew Lester was gone, so in that context, trading Lackey and tanking the 2015 season rotation made some sense. Had Kelly gone on to do well and Craig returned to 2011-2013 form, nobody would have cared about Lackey's one year of remaining control.

Craig ranked 22nd in OPS from 2011 and 2013. It was an outlandish thought to think there was a significant chance Craig would bounce back after a serious foot injury in the WS against the Sox in 2013. The high salary of Craig also counts as $6.2M a year, far less than his actual salary. The deal sucked. I'm not trying to claim otherwise, but there were certainly some reasoning behind it.

I kept saying during last season that we should hold off criticizing the extension, until the extension actually begins (in 2016). I loved the extension from day one for one reason: every year in the deal falls within his prime.

Totally agree, but does anyone really think we'd have won in 2015 with Lackey? His last contract year was 2015. Again, I'm not defending the deal. I disliked it at the time, even though I liked Kelly and thought he showed promise. I thought we should have and could have done better. I know that seems like my never-ending mantra, but I see what others get for worse pitchers.

Here's MLBTR's projected our arbs results... (pretty close my projections- see down below) Red Sox (11) Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM Josh Rutledge (3.090) – $1.0MM Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM Bryan Holaday (3.025) – $900K Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM My projections: Bogaerts:$650K > ~$6.0M (1st of 3) Bradley: $546K > ~$4.0M (1 of 4) Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3) J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs) Ross: $1.25M> $1.6 (2 of 3) Holt: $606K > $1.3M (1 of 3) Leon: $minor > $1.2K (1 of 3) Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3) Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

How about the respect Lackey was paid when he was out injured for a whole year after s***ing the bed the previous year playing hurt. The injury we were worried about when we put in that clause actually took away 2 years of his 5 year deal. What did he end up making? $82M for not much time doing well? I just didn't see Lackey being in a position to expect an extension. I'd have done it from the Sox perspective, because he was good enough to want him back, but I can at least see how LL could take the stance of a prick against Lackey & his agent.

I feel just about the same way. I give a long leash to our GMs. I've disagreed with all three of DD's biggest deals, but I'm far from ready to suggest he should be replaced.

Of course, they both could have seasons somewhere in between, better or heaven forbid, worse.

Stats like ERA- capture park differentials and strength of offenses faced, and Cueto was always near the top. 2011-2015 ERA- 58 Kershaw 69 Cueto 69 harvey 72 deGrom 72 Medlin 73 Sale 75 Greinke 76 Lee 77 Gray 78 Darvish 78 Price

I'm not doubting your math. I'm wondering why Cots doesn't list his arb years yet. 5 years is great news and does make it less likely I'd agree to trade him.

Years of team control on our rotation: Price: 2 (opt out) or 6 (no opt out) Porcello: 3 Rodriguez: (arb not set yet, so maybe 4 years?) Wright: 4 (3 arbs) Pomeranz: 2 (both arbs) Buchholz 0 or 1 (option) Kelly: 2 arbs Elias: 4 (3 arbs) Owens & Johnson (arbs not set yet) The Pen: Kimbrel: 1 or 2 (option) C Smith: 4 (3 arbs) R Ross: 2 arbs Abad: 1 arb (no minor league options remaining) Workman: 3 arbs All others: no arbs set yet

I think Price will have Porcello's (2016) year, and Porcello will have Price's (2016) year.

$30-40M is enough for 2 top RPers and a decent short term 3B option. It's enough to get Turner and Jansen or Jansen and Chapman. Neither are likely, but the point is, there's enough money for 2 big names.

Good points all around, especially on ERod. I think we can hope for more of the same from Ross, which has been pretty darn good, and good seasons from 3 or 4 out of C Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and Scott. A return to form from Kimbrel would also be a huge boost. I still think there's too much hoping and praying going on with the pen without Zeigler, Uehara and Tazawa. Assuming all starters are healthy (unlikely), we can add Buch or Pom to the pen, but even then, I think we fall short by at least 1 top quality pen arm. I can't see us standing pat with this pen. The rotation shows much more promise, and you hit on a few reasons why. Last winter we were dreaming of Buch and Kelly having full productive seasons with Price, Porcello & ERod commanding the TOR. The ERod injury hurt, but it did provide a slot for Wright to come in and save the day. Looking at GS'd this year vs projected next year, there's a ton of room for improvement: Price 35 GS'd to 33 (-2) Porcello 33 to 33 (No change) Wright 24 to 28 (+4) ERod 20 to 28 (+8) Pomeranz 13 to 25 (+12) Buchholz 21 to 15 (-6) Kelly 6 > 0 Owens 5>0 O'Sullivan 4>0 Elias 1> 0

I've been a Wright supporter for years. I was bummed out when he missed his chance in 2015. I also think ERod could be an ace waiting to blossum. Pom pitched like an ace the first half with the Padres, but I don't see him ever being a true ace. Buch can and has pitched like an ace, but usually for no more than a half season.

Their pen is awfully deep, but your point is well taken.

Good point, or just find someone nobody thought was an ace, but who becomes one.

I don't see the Sox adding another top of the rotation pitcher this off season. As Moon stated in another post, the bullpen needs more help. I'd actually rather get an ace than a RP'er or two, but I'm not sure we have the pieces to get one without destroying another aspect of our roster. We already spent valuable prospects on a closer and mid level starter, so our choices are now limited. Getting pen help and a bridge 3Bman is probably what will happen. (That doesn't mean I'd choose it.) They'll add some depth at starting pitching but that's about it. I think Buch is the depth we'll have.If we end up needing more, as we needed 16 starts beyond our "big 6", I think we'll have to hope Owens, Johnson, Elias, Kelly or eventually Kopech can fill the void. If not, we'll look for another PomPom-like trade mid summer.

Funny thing is Peavy and Lee changed teams several times in their prime, so I'm not sure those are good examples. I think the real chance might come with Sale, but he likely won't be gotten by giving up far away prospects like Devers, Basabe or Groome. They'll probably want JBJ , Swihart and Kopech (or more), and that will just create another need. However, having the ability to move Beni or Betts to CF and find a LF'er is much easier than finding an ace at such a reasonable salary. I don't want to be accused of beating the Sale horse to death (I already have), but there just aren't many aces available. While I have said our more pressing need is the pen and 3B, getting an ace is always something that should be explored, especially when one seems to be on the block.

The Guardians lost Carrasco and Salazar, two of MLB top 40 pitchers. Now, they lose Bauer, and yet they still win. What a bullpen they have!

The hint for me that this may all be a pipe dream was the rumor that the CWS wanted JBJ and other ML ready prospects (Moncada?) for Sale, the guy they have had issues with for quite some time. This was not a sign of "starting over" or some massive purge. It was just a sign of trying to keep competing but in a different way. I realize the Quintana idea is probably just a dream, but there does seem to be more unrest on the CWS than just with Sale, so I'm holding out on a sliver of a dream.

I understood the need to get an ace. I agreed that of all the pitchers on the market, Price looked like the safest bet of all. I'm not going to beat DD upf or spending long and large on Price. It was nice not to lose a pick over him. That being said, the cost was too high. I preferred Cueto....injury risk and all.

We could have outbid for Miller. I think Lester was a lost cause, although he's making much less than Price.

I'm not ready to throw DD under the bus, even though I've disagreed with his 3 biggest moves so far, Price, Kimbrel and Pomeranz.