moonslav59

Either analogy is appropriate.

Plans to replenish the farm. That's a good one! Kinda like Trump's secret plan to defeat ISIS.

Let's take a closer look at just how much (estimated) money will be available in each of the next few winters (luxury tax dollars): After 2017: $25.5M Total ($13.5M Buch, $6.5M Young, $5.5M Moreland) Raises: $8.5M Total (Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M (option) & Sale $6.5M to $12.5M) Arb raises: $31M Total 3rd of 3: Pom ~$4.7M > $8.4M, Kelly ~$2.6M > $3.9M, Ross ~$1.8M > $2.8M 2nd of 3: Bogey ~$5.7M > $10.2MM, Thornburg $2.7M > $4.7M, Holt ~1.7M > $2.7M, Rutledge ~$800K >$1M & Workman $600K >$900K 1st of 3: Betts $550K>~$7M, Smith ~$550K>$5M, Wright ~$550K> $4M& Vaz $550K> $3M NET: Minus $14M (Nothing to spend on free agents to replace anyone we lose) Replace Moreland with Travis, Young with Swihart and Buch with Owens/Johnson. Assuming we reset the luxury tax this winter, and if we keep everyone, we'll be paying a tax on about $10-14M . Or, we could dump some salary. After 2018:~$50M Total ($22M HanRam, $13M Kimbrel, ~$8.4M Pom, ~$3.9M, Ross ~$2.8M) Raises: $1M (Sale $12.5M>$13.5M option) Arb Raises: +$30M Total (Bogey +$6.5M, Thornburg +$3M, Holt +$1M, Rutledge +$500K & Workman +$500K, Betts +$6.5M, Smith +$2.5M, Wright +2M$, Vaz +$1.5M, Erod +$2M, Swihart +$2M, Barnes +$1M, Elias +$500K & Hembree +$500K) We may have close to $20M extra here, but since we were over by $10M from the previous year, we could be at about $10M to spend on replacing a bunch of talent. Devers replaces HanRam and maybe Groome & Owens/Johnson can replace Kimbrel, but who knows. We lose Pablo and Porcello and others the following years, but arb raises will be very high.

Yes, and we both were big Ben supporters to the end. I hope we win 1-2 rings in the next 3-4 years, but I'm prepared to have some lean years afterwards. I realize I may be surprised, if DD is able to rebuild the farm in 3 years, but I see no evidence to believe it can or will happen. DD never did it before, and the times have gotten more difficult that ever before. That's a double whammy we have to overcome. I'm not crying over our situation. I'm not losing sleep with worry, but I find myself having to respond to those who want to look at our extended future through rose colored glasses.

I have never advocated keeping all these guys. I suggested countless trades with Margot, Guerra and Moncada in them. My point was that if this wasn't "gutting the farm" then no team has ever gutted the farm in the history of MLB.

Then I guess you should be bashing DD for signing Price to be our "ace".

It is what it is, but remember, when Theo built the 2004 championship team, in part by using dome of Dan D's prospects to get us Schilling, he kept the farm loaded. He could have gone farther to insure we'd be even more favored to win it all, but he kept a balance. Our farm still had HanRam, Lester, Youkilis, Papelbon, Anibal Sanchez, Shoppach, Delcarmen, David Murphy and more. He didn't leave three prospects. Theo could have traded more prospects than he did to get Beckett and Lowell for the 2007 ring. He kept his major prospect trades to one. We won in 2007, but still had these guys on the farm: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Masterson, Lowrie, B Moss, Reddick, Doubront, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden & D Bard. When Ben built a championship team in 2013, the farm was left loeaded. You don't have to go tot his extreme to win a ring. I love the Sale and Thornburg trades, but we've never won a ring by emptying or nearly emptying the farm before.

When you figure in the arb raises, some of which will be massive in their year 2 and 3 arbs, there may not be as much left over to spend on FAs as it looks. Also, the luxury tax numbers are based on average salary of each contract, but when certain players reach their option years, that cost goes up as well: Luxury cost to new option cost: 2018- Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M 2018- Sale $6.5M to $12.5M 2019- Sale $12.5M to $13.5M Then, the arb raises... 2018: 3rd of 3: Pom, Kelly, Ross 2nd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman 1st of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 1st of 4: Erod, Swihart 2019: 3rd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman 2nd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 2nd of 4: Erod, Swihart 1st of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree 2020: 3rd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 3rd of 4: Erod, Swihart 2nd of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree plus maybe Beni and others starting arbs.

In terms of the history of MLB prospect trade windows, it's hard to imagine any other GM unloading so many top prospects as DD has over the last 12-13 months. Maybe it's not a total gut, but it's about as close to it as I've ever seen. DD traded this: Mid-season Baseball America Rankings: #1 Moncada #15 Espinosa #39 Margot #87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade) #93 Kopech Highest soxprospects.com ranking: 1. Moncada 3. Espinoza 3. Margot 3. Cecchini 5. Kopech 6. Guerra 7. Basabe 10. Dubon 12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12. Wendell Rijo 13. Logan Allen 13. Pat Light 14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers) 18. Basabe (the other one) 20. Carlos Asuaje 21. Victor Diaz 21. Jonathan Aro 27. Josh Pennington 30. Aaron Wilkerson 40. Jose Almonte And kept this: Devers Groome Travis

Good post. I do think there is a pretty wide spectrum on a couple points of debate: 1) Can a weak or strong farm on paper even have strong predictive power? 2) Can we rebuild the farm to a decent level under the new system in place? We hear a lot of, "we'll deal with the farm problem or replacing our stars when the time comes" with no specifics on how it can be done, except for vague assertions that Henry can open his wallet, or we have three years of draft picks to rebuild the farm. I know the flip side is equally vague. It's hard for us supporters of keeping a balance to prove Espi or Kopech or Basabe would be helpful from 4-9 years out. We all want the same thing, but we have different views of how out present and future might look like had we not done all these deals.

It's impossible to know, but when given the chance to cancel the trade, knowing Pom has an injury, I think he kept the deal intact, because of Pom's 2 more years of control- not so much for 2016. Hard to know. The whole situation was a mess. How could we cancel the trade when our second or third options were no longer available. For that reasonb, maybe DD still would keep the deal, but it's certainly more questionable under my hypothetical scenario. Too bas the CWS wouldn't make the same Sale deal they did make back in July.

I'm thinking that even DD would have taken back the Espi trade, if he knew he was going to get Sale. We'd be under the luxury limit and could keep Buch.

I am happy we are set up to win, but I don't deny our future will suffer for it. I don't see a contradiction. We have also made several other trades besides the Sale one. I was strongly against the Kimbrel trade, but have softened my stance a little once top RP'er contracts ballooned to extreme numbers. I still hate the Espi-Pom trade. I disliked the Hill trade from day one, but it wasn't a big deal. Overall, I like what we've done, but if I could undo some deals, I'd take back the three trades I mentioned or at least the Pom & Hill trades. Our extended future would look better, and we'd still be strong contenders for the next 3 years... a little more balance.

That was a while ago. The Sox wanted Luis Castillo. To get him, I assume we'd have to pay much of Buch's contract. I doubt this deal happens, but I do think we are actively listening to offers for Buch.

Yes, he might have traded for Q-iguana and Thornburg and signed Cueto and EE, but no Kimbrell or Espi.

Me too! For over 45 years I have suggested trades like this. My dream came true!

MLBTR... Sale’s former pitching coach with the White Sox, Don Cooper, told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “He knows himself really good. His delivery is solid.” Cooper added, “Chris Sale has three above-average major league pitches that he pours in and throws strikes. I don’t want to sound cocky, but I don’t think anyone saying stuff has a better idea about his delivery than me.” Cooper then lavished further praise on the 27-year-old Sale, who he thinks landed with the right club. “He’s put up Hall of Fame-credible numbers. And now he’s going to a team that is sparing no expense,” said Cooper. “Nothing stands in the way of them putting together the best team. He’s going to a team where he has a chance to put up even more wins. If he has 10 years like he’s had, he has a chance to have a Hall of Fame career.” Full article https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/17/nick-cafardo-why-chris-sale-delivery-works-for-him/j5slTzAgR7miJUAsQoAgHM/story.html

There is no way of knowing, but I am as close to certain as can be that if Ben has stayed on, he would have made at least one blockbuster top prospect trade and would have signed a big named SP'er.

You can certainly improve your odds of being a competitive team 5 and 10 years down the road by acquiring and keeping near and far away top prospects. Theo and Ben did the acquiring part of the equation, which is the hard part. Keeping a balance was entrusted to DD, and he decided to go for broke at the expense of seriously weakening our extended outlook. We'll find out 4-10 years from now, and I don't want to hear any crap about how "we don't know if these ex-Sox players playing allstar baseball elsewhere would be doing that for us had we kept them." The same way we view the AGon trade differently years later as Rizzo has become a star, and Rizzo wasn't even projected to be as great as several guys we have traded in the last 13 months. The HanRam/Sanchez- Beckett/Lowell trade was different, as we all expected HanRam to become something special, but it was still "speculative" to some extent, and the fact that he and Anibal went on to have some very good to great seasons does make that trade look more questionable than it did at the time and after our 2007 ring. A ring in the next 3 years will certainly make viewing these recent trades in a much different light down the road, but if we fail to win a ring, DD will probably be gone and someone else will have to pick up the pieces.

Obviously you go somewhere in between. DD traded this: Mid-season Baseball America Rankings: #1 Moncada #15 Espinosa #39 Margot #87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade) #93 Kopech Highest soxprospects.com ranking: 1. Moncada 3. Espinoza 3. Margot 3. Cecchini 5. Kopech 6. Guerra 7. Basabe 10. Dubon 12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12. Wendell Rijo 13. Logan Allen 13. Pat Light 14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers) 18. Basabe (the other one) 20. Carlos Asuaje 21. Victor Diaz 21. Jonathan Aro 27. Josh Pennington 30. Aaron Wilkerson 40. Jose Almonte And kept this: Devers Groome Travis I don't see that as somewhere in between. I suppose in theory it is, but it's way to one side of the spectrum. This isn't a keeper fantasy team. It's not the good old days before free agency, when players were locked into their team for life, unless traded or cut. If it was, we'd have an excellent present & future as nobody is older than 33 on our roster, and much of our best talent is still pre-prime or early prime. Unless Henry is going to open the wallet and let"money flow in", there is a strong possibility, not a certainty, but a very strong chance this team will be suffering for the choices made by DD this past 13 months once we get to year 4 to 8 or even 9 & 10, if Espi and other very young prospects dealt away do very well. Again, I'm fine with what was done (sans Espi), but I see what we did and know we will have to pay for our excesses at some point down the road. There are consequences to everything we do.

In 3 or 4 years, then what? This is the exact mentality that got your Yankees where they were last year and this.

You are right, and Theo also strategically made some big prospect trades here and there, when needed. The Schilling trade. The Beckett/Lowell trade. The Agon trade. But, if you notice, these weren't all done in a 13 month window. He spread them out to allow for a constant or near constant flow of prospects into the system while filling the holes with FAs and trades.

He has been "batting practiced" maybe only twice. Here's how one could cherry pick his playoff games on the assumption that, if he was yanked at the right time (in hindsight) how well or poorly has he done: His first 5 games were in relief: 6.2 IP 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 8 K Had his teams never made the playoffs again, how would people predict his next playoff game? Here are his playoff starts in the most positive way to view them: IP ER 6.2 4 6.0 3 6.0 1 (3 runs allowed in 7th- 1 scored after he left) 7.0 7 vs BOS in 2013 8.0 2 6.1 4 (let up solo HR in 7th) in relief of Dickey: 1.2 IP 0 (ended up with 3 ER in 3 IP) 6.0 0 (let up 5 ER in 7th) 6.1 2 (ended up with 6.2 IP 3 ER as next pitcher allowed his runner to score) 2.1 0 this year vs CLE, then GB single between SS & 3B, weak GB single to SS, LD single and 3 run HR. Later Barnes let up an inherited runner and Price ended up with 3.1 IP and 5 ER 9 GS'd and 4 games where he was at 6 IP with 2 or less ERs. One with 3 ER. If you count his first 6.2 IP in relief with 1 ER, he looks better.

THe top is pretty close, but some major differences the lower you get (as expected). The first big difference is Dalbec #16 not#5. Others... Lakins at #8 to #17 TBall 10 not 15. Marrero still at 15, while soxprospects has him at 38. Jerex at 19 not 32 and Brakeman at 21 not 40.

This is an impossible discussion to be having until we can quantify "much". How many post-season innings does a pitcher have before their post-season stats mean "much"? Way more than anybody has ever had. I maintain that no pitcher will ever meet the normal qualifications for having an adequate sample size to make their stats mean "much". Correct. That means that statiscially every pitcher in every game is on nearly equal footing. No, not at all. You could start Fernando Abad against Max Scherzer and since neither of them have a large enough sample size to be significant one would have to say that based on statistics Abad vs. Scherzer is a nearly equal matchup. And that's ridiculous. Exactly. Would you really think a guy who went 20-4 with a 1.50 ERA but had no playoff experience would have an equal chance of winning over a guy who went 4-20 with a 6.25 ERA with no playoff experience? Now, that would be ridiculous! Regular season sample sizes still influence what you'd expect to happen in the playoffs. It doesn't always work that way, but baseball never works that way. A great regular season pitcher can always lose to a horrible starter at any given time. Once could find poor regular season sample sizes by great pitchers within their regular season careers. Look how Price sucked to start the year. That wasn't predictable based on his regular season history, but it happened. One could cherry pick some games here and there spread out over several seasons that make every pitcher look bad. It could just be coincidence that Prices so many bad games have fallen during playoff games. Maybe not. Maybe the pressure does get to him more than others. MLB is full of examples of players who sucked in their first 10-15 playoff games (like Papi) but then did great afterwards and vice versa. Players are streaky. It could be as simple as that. It could be more complicated. I don't think we'll ever know, bu I'll take Price in any playoff game over Abad or many other starters with similar playoff sample sizes with better results. I fail to understand why some posters are defending Price's post-season numbers. I'm not defending Price. The guy has sucked in just about every playoff start he's had. The odds are greatly against that as a random occurrence, but not impossible. I don't know why he has sucked so much. There could be other factors involved- small injuries, tough match-ups, poor fielding, facing starters who had freakishly good outings, as well as maybe just some games where the pressure did get to him or that he just plain had an off day. My guess would be that he's probably had some bad luck combined with him just not being at his best. The reason for that is speculative, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he has sucked. Is he a gag? A choke? Maybe? Probably? My position is we don't know, and even if we were able to determine that most of his poor performances were due to being a player that reacts poorly to higher pressure, it's still not a sure bet that it's a predictor of what will happen in the next pressure situation. Often times, players and teams that come up short for a few years, learn from their experiences and overcome the" jitters" or whatever it was that caused them to lose previously. Pressure does different things to different people. Since the only difference between the regular season and the post-season is that the post-season is...well.. post-season it's different. To say that an pitcher with an ERA of 3.21 in the regular season and an ERA >5.50 in the post-season is insignificant is sticking our heads in the sand. Certainly, I'd hesitate to bet on Price in his next playoff game, but with a gun pointed to my head, I'd bet on Price over Buch or Pom or Wright and many other SP'er. I'm not hating on the guy. I think he's a great regular season pitcher, but he is what his numbers say he is - a great regular season pitcher who pitches poorly in the post-season. I like having the guy on the team, but I don't think we should run him out there in a post season game and expect him to give up only 2 runs in 6 innings until he proves he can do it. Well, JBJ was what he was before he wasn't who he was, right? Or, he was who he always was, but just had a tough stretch, a slump, a learning curve, or whatever it was, but he ended up pretty close to what his minor league numbers showed and what scouts thought he'd be. Maybe Price will too; maybe not, but I'm not going to use a small sample size as the ONLY predictor of what is to come. .