moonslav59

You also have to factor in call-ups during the year, of which there are often over 15. Some of these guys go from minor league salaries to minimum major league salaries and those raises count on the budget. Alex Speier projected $4M for this, and he seems to know about these things. If the number is $4M and the arbs come out as projected, then we may have $10-11M in wiggle room remaining.

We all thought he'd return to his norm, which is pretty much what he did or was in the process of doing when the season ended. A hot player (or lucky player) is likely to return to his norm just like a guy in a slump. That doesn't mean a player's "norm" can't change, trend or evolve... most do over their careers, and that's where most predictions rely on age or experience curves to adjust a player's projection based on what has happened to similar players at certain points of their career. It's not an exact science as Papi showed, and sometimes outside influences occur as Barry Bonds showed us. Sandy Leon's career minor league OPS is .654. Within his farm context one notices some horrendous bad stretches and seasons and a couple very high spikes (.856 in 2012 and .938 in winter ball of 2013). His OPS in limited scattered PAs with WSH was .533. It was .439 last year in 128 PAs for the Sox. So, after going through an incredible hot streak (not unprecedented in his professional career), what happened? A .539 OPS in September. That's pretty close to what his career ML OPS was before the hot/lucky streak- whichever you want to call it. Now, the issue is this, because of that hot streak, his career ML OPS has risen from the low .500's to .681. His sample size is still very small at 518 PAs scattered over 5 ML seasons with countless demotions and promotions to and from the farm. What can we expect going forward? For those of you who feel what you were doing most recently counts more, what were you saying last July or August? How far back do you go? Some arbitrary number? If you count just Sandy's last month, you might project a Leon that falls in line with his previous ML OPS and his minor league OPS -between .530 and .630 maybe-- so .580ish? If you like to use a players last 3 months (223 PAs)- you'd think .755 is what we can expect. If you like to use his last season, then .845 might be your number, unless you factor in his .655 at AAA last year in 130 PAs (maybe .775?). To me, I'll stick with projecting somewhere between his career MLB OPS of .681 and his minor league OPS of .654 knowing full well he could have a season much nearer .535 than .845, because that is where most of his career has been. There really was an exact date Leon fell off a cliff-- August 26th. His OPS dropped pretty continuously from the start, but he still was "hitting over his head" for several months: June 1.243 July .956 Aug. .893 Sept .539 He was still over a 1.000 OPS on Aug 26th. Who here could have predicted the correct date for his return to norm? He went 5 for 28 to end August (just 1 double and 1 BB). His September was not below his norm to "compensate" for his hot or lucky streak. It was almost exactly at his norm. Perhaps Leon is a poor example, since his "norm" is not really established, but I used him as an example in response to this post.

They are more likely to return to their norm- not do worse than norm. There are certain hitters who rarely hit for their norm for extended periods. They are always up and down, but predicting the moment they turn their trend is near impossible.

True enough, but I'm hoping we won't be needing top talent... maybe just a de Aza, Ziegler or Leon type that cost us very little. I mention the money, because picking up a so-so player with $5M remaining on his last year of his contract may not cost us top prospects, and we can get two guys like that and still stay under the limit.

Yes, and that's why a .333 hitter has about a .333 chance of getting a hit after going 0 for 20 and a .250 hitter has about a .250 chance of getting a hit after going 10 for 20.

I can flip heads or tails 10 times in a row, but I meant a legitimate coin toss that lands on the ground by a non-skilled magician.

Same as flipping a coin and getting heads 5 times in a row. What's the chance of a heads the next flip? 50%, of course.

It's not .000 either, and it's probably closer to .333 than .000 (higher than .167). That's why I went to a better question. A player's last 20, 50, 100 or 200 PAs is not the best predictor of what is to come in the near or far future.

In the simplest sense, high strikeout rate is a good indicator of a good pitcher. This is the false assumption that irks me. There are countless examples of low K pitchers that had long careers of consistent low ERA- and WHIP. Blaming that on the fielders behind these types of pitchers is missing a whole group of top quality pitchers. Any system that ranks Wright;s 2015 season as below average is seriously flawed. BTW, I saw zero evidence that "proves" this system is a better system than others. Wright's score proves it can't be.

With close to $10M to spend, we could get some top talent at the deadline and still stay under. Only a third of the player's salary would be charged to us.

If we could trade Abad (saving $2M) and get Holland at a reasonable rate, we'd be taking a risk, but we'd have an upside that could be enormous. I'm not saying I want to do it, but something like this could be worth it, if we'd still leave some wiggle room for the deadline.

It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used. Alex Speier has us at $179.4M plus $1M for incentives and $4M for mid season depth call-ups to put us around $184M. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html That leaves us $11M in flex spending. That's plenty for the deadline to acquire 2 guys making $30M combined (seasonal), since the prorated cost would be $10M. We reset the tax for next year and then can go over without paying a 50% tax. I think our next self imposed limit will be to stay under the $20M over the limit amount where a separate set of penalties kick in. I think we can do that pretty easily and pay all the key arb raises and maybe acquire one significant FA (or extend a star). If we hadn't signed Moreland, I could see justifying going after JB, but not now.

True, but resetting this winter is easier than I the next few

He'll be a FA under the new CBA.

It's my understanding that no player can be given a QO twice. I wouldn't sign him to even $9M/1

We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit. Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.

I'm basing my projections on where teams stand right now. I do think the al east will be the best again in 2017 but not like 2016.

I disagree. What's the odds on this example player's projected next 100 or 1000 PAs? .000 .333 .167 .310? I'd project closer to .333 than anything else, unless the player is old or the original sample size was not large enough, or a long trend was under way before the 0-20 slump.

I'm still not convinced, and the proof I asked for is just the creator saying it is the best. There is no adjustments made for pitchers with low k rates who consistently get hitters to hit into outs. Again, I respect the attempt to minimize the impact of fielders on a pitcher's success, but by totally removing it from the equation, the low k great pitchers are penalized. They have Wright as below avg while his ERA- was tremendous. That's a metric that also accounts for several factors.

I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.

Some positions, like RF, get way less action than a position like SS. So, a season sample size for a SS is more telling than just a season from an OF'er.

Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there. I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers.

Agreed. Maybe this tweak will be enough to keep him out of the games, but not affect his season with the sox.

Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html

I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.