moonslav59

Agreed. Let's get back to Sox baseball... Which Sox player is most likely to see a 100 point rise in his OPS? Betts .897> ? HanRam .866> ? JBJ .835>? Beni .835>? Pedey .825>? Bogey .802>? Holt .705>? Vaz .585>? It's easy to look at Vaz and think .685 is achievable without anything major happening. Bogey getting over .900 makes some sense. JBJ's ability to have stretches of awesome numbers begs the question about being able to sustain it over a longer period or multiple periods within one season. I like Betts getting over 1.000, but that's a lot to ask for someone who has shown steady growth for years. He's bound to have a level off year here or there along the way. He did jump 77 points last year, so asking for 100 after that is a lot to ask. Who is most likely to drop 100 points? HanRam .866> Young .850> Leon .845> Beni .835> Pedey .825> I'd say Leon is the obvious pick here.

Maybe next year. I'm not into getting involved in non Sox players' production and projection.

If he felt misunderstood here, wait till he gets to Japan!

There's a lot of questions here, but there's also a lot of players listed here that are pre-prime, at the start of their prime years or in the meat of their prime. There's a strong chance someone has a breakout year or a huge gain in production. Even a player like Betts could jump over a 1.000 OPS and nobody would be shocked.

Some Sox questions to ponder.... Leon- Vazquez-Swihart: All have shown promise in either offense or defense. Can two of these guys step up their weaker side and become all around solid catchers? Keep an eye on Leon's weight. He seemed to me to be gaining weight throughout last season. Will he pull a Panda on us in 2017? He has always been a bit "pudgy", but I don't see any indication of him gaining more weight. Sale, Porcello, Price: Sale has been a rock, and so has Price until 2016's shaky start and finish. Porcello blossomed. Can the big 3 live up to their hype? Will the risk of injury bite us with Sale? If we lose any of the big 3, it will be a major issue, but we'll still have two top quality starters. Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Marrero... Is this bench good enough? Young and Swihart may also be bench players and are better than those you name. I have Young as a starter vs LHPs, but certainly he's a great bench piece vs RH'd starters replaced by a lefty. Yes, Swihart could be a key bench piece this year. Abad, Hembree, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, Martin, Ysla: Hopefully, we don't have to count on any of these guys too much... Are they good enough? Abad certainly was awful for us in 2016. He seemed to have good stuff but never achieved good results. He still led all Sox pitchers in lowest OPS against (.461) vs LHBs. That's what we got him for. JBJ: He has had two straight seasons over .830. There were a few big ups and big downs in those two seasons and one big long down in 2014. Can we expect more consistency in 2017? Can we expect a jump in OPS? What has JBJ done in the off season to improve his technique? Without some change in his swing mechanics I don't believe he can achieve consistency. It's hard to know if a major adjustment is needed, or if he just had a season ending slump. I think it's too early to label him a streaky hitter. I'm noit saying there aren't indications he will be, because there are, but let's give him a chance to show what he's got.

I'm not trying to put down car racing or golf or any activity or game I don't consider a sport. I just have a narrower view of what a sport is. I'm fine with those who have a wider view on this. I can even understand those who would call baseball a game and not a sport.

That and no right turns. I mean, at least add a little more challenge. I get the fact that it is physically demanding to race a car at those speeds for that long of a period, but I just don't see it as being a sport.

It was an analogy that related to the G stress and mental stress that car racers are under. One mistake and you could be dead. IMO, not a sport...just and adventurous and dangerous game.

True enough, but with our pen being somewhat shaky or at least questionable, I want the one left out of the rotation in the pen--not AAA.

The positional difference was in regards to who might be first to make the big club not as a ranking aspect. Longhi's similar numbers, except for HRs, must be viewed in the context of being a year older at each level.

To me, just having physical forced placed upon you, such as G forces with car racing, does not make it a sport. I am fully aware of the forces and stresses on a car racer. I'm not "ignorant". Is flying an Air Force jet a sport? Would it be, if they raced?

This is really a close call, and with nothing better to talk about, we turn this near 50-50 choice into something bigger than it is. I get your point, but to me there's a flaw in your plan. Pom has been given so many chances to win a rotation slot. He even got 30 starts last year. The whole "let's see what he's got" argument makes more sense with Wright, who has had two very good seasons in a row where his season was cut short by injuries. The second part of the argument should be about who is more likely to be able to pitch over 170 IP and still be good to go for the playoffs. Pomeranz has had years to prove he can go 170 or 180+ IP and still be sharp. Here's his IP totals: Yr MLB minors total 11 18.1 101.0 119.1 12 96.2 50.2 147.1 13 21.1 91.0 112.0 14 69.0 46.1 115.1 15 86.0 2.0 88.0 16 170.2 0.0 170.2 Granted, he was in the pen for some of this time, but so has Wright. Pom's one season going over 148 IP saw him run out of steam. Why use this year to see if he can be strong after 180 IP in the playoffs? Why not rest him to start the year and not have to find out? Wright has a much longer professional career. While he has never been over 170, it seems he gets hurt not runs out of steam. He's had 5 seasons over 130 IP to Pom's 2. Why not start Wright. If he gets hurt, Pom is ready to step in and hopefully not end up going over 170 IP this year by playoff time? 07 0.0 114.1 114.1 08 0.0 147.2 147.2 09 0.0 87.0 87.0 10 0.0 75.1 75.1 11 0.0 133.2 133.2 12 0.0 141.2 141.2 13 13.1 135.1 148.2 14 21.0 100.0 121.0 15 72.2 52.0 124.2 16 156.2 0.0 156.2 What worries me is the that even if Pom does great, he may be over 190 IP by playoff time and hit the wall. I'd feel much better, if he took over a starting rotation slot in May or June and had 125 IP by season end and is in the middle of a hot streak like he had in SD last summer. The third aspect of importance is who is the better reliever. Both have an ample sample size of relief. Here are those numbers: Wright as RP'er: 3.88 ERA/ 1.397 WHIP/ .721 OPS against (49 IP) as SP'er: 3.52 ERA/ 1.242 WHIP/ .660 OPS against (215 IP) 2009 AA: RP 1.61/ SP 4.50 2010 AA: RP 4.47/ SP 3.24 Pomeranz as RP'er: 2.10/ 0.995/ .543 (64.1 IP) as SP'er: 4.07/ 1.327/ .710 (398 IP) Again, we're arguing over minute differences. I have no issues with those posters who prefer Pom. I think either one will do fine. I just like Pom better as a RP'er and don't want to have to test his stamina, if we don't have to.

He has a lower percent of blow-outs in his games started vs Pom and Erod. One of his last 10 starts saw him allow more than 5 runs. 3 of 10 with 5 or more runs allowed. If that's his worst stretch to label him "inconsistent", I'll take it. Both Pom and Wright saw their second half ERAs plunge. Injuries probably had something to do with both downturns. The fact is Wright has an amazing percent of his starts allowing 3 or less ERs and 4 or less over his career: 3 or less/ 4 or less 2016: 18/24 and 20/24 2015: 8/9 and 8/9 2014: 1/1 and 1/1 2013: 1/1 and 1/1 career: 28/35 (80%) and 30/35(86%) Pomeranz (playing half his games in huge parks) 2011: 3/4 and 3/4 2012: 15/22 and 18/22 2013: 2/4 and 3/4 2014: 8/10 and 8/10 2015: 3/8 and 3/8 2016: 24/30 and 24/30 career: 55/78 (71%) and 59/78(76%) Pom has had his chance "to prove" what he can do. He's done a fine job as a starter and a reliever. If anyone deserves a longer look, it's Wright. He has a better good start percentage, and in my mind, that's the measure of consistency.

The other factor that is often ignored or minimized is how much a knuckle ball messes with the opponent's timing. One game facing Wright can take a hot hitter out of his comfort zone and into a confused state of mind for the next few pitchers he faces. I once did a study on starting pitcher ERA after a Wake start as compared to that season's overall ERA. It was pretty amazing how much better starters did right after a Wake start.

Next, they'll be calling driving a car making a bunch of left hand turns a sport.

Longhi's never been above A ball either. Why more confidence in him? He has worse numbers than Devers and has been a year older at each level. Plus, Devers plays 3B- a position of greater need than 1B.

I totally disagree. Wright has had fewer horrible starts than Pom and ERod. He's been amazingly consistent as a starter. I found the same thing with Wake years ago. All pitchers have times when they "lose it" or "don't have it". I don't see where knuckleballers have those times more often. Although they may have secondary pitches that can not be true fallback pitches, they tend to have good and bad days about the same rate as other pitchers...at least with Wake and Wright.

I think 2017-2018 was a big reason we pulled the trigger, but we needed a starter at the time. We had already started O'Sullivan 4 games in early May (6.75 ERA), Owens 3 starts at 5.11, Roenis Ellis once (15.88) In early July Buch had a 5.91 ERA in 13 starts, Kelly was at 8.46 ERA in 6 starts and even Price had an ERA over 4.60. We were willing to give up Espi due to the 2 more years of team control on Pom, but had we not gotten Pom, we were going to get somebody. Too bad we couldn't have made the Sale trade last July- maybe even subbing Espi for Kopech & Basabe or Kopech & Diaz.

I think it's the whole aversion to the knuckle ballers.

I know keeping pen depth has value, but I totally agree on Abad. If we can't trade him, then release him, if we lose the arb (or maybe even if we win). I'd give Hembree his roster spot- not Scott, since he HH out of options. 7 pen slots (assuming Smith starts out on the DL): Kimbrel Thornburg Kelly Ross Barnes Wright/Pom Hembree If ERod begins the year on the DL or in AAA, then Scott would be my #7 depending on how others look in ST'ing: Elias Workman Olmos (I believe out of options & not on 40 man roster) Martin Ysla Noe Ramirez Owens or Johnson

For what it's worth, FanGraphs Depth Charts project Moreland with a 2017 WAR of 0.7 in 525 plate appearances and Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 490 plate appearances. With all due respect, and I really respect you, you rely too much on WAR projections. WAR discriminates against 1Bmen. Moreland had the best UZR/150 as a 1Bman last year and still had a negative defense factor in WAR calculation. I know the ridiculous subtraction of defense from DH's is even worse, but having so much faith in WAR projections misses other factors in valuing players. If we can keep HanRam healthy, get him more PAs and keep his poor defense off 1B, Moreland's value is worth much more than whatever WAR he puts up.

It's not what Tobias earns, since he won't be on the 40 man roster, but the guy who replaces Buch will likely be a $500K player, so the difference is likely going to be $1M. That may not seem like much, but at the deadline, when trading for a player means we're only on the hook for 1/3 of a player's annual salary, having that extra $1M means the difference between being able to trade for a $9M annual salary player or a $12M player.

Both Wright and Pom will get ample opportunities to show their stuff and win or lose a rotation slot this year and next. April starts should be determined by who is the better starter and who is the better reliever and to a lesser extent, who has already proven he can pitch well in the AL and AL East and who has not. Wright is better on every single criteria used, even if by a slight margin on some. The only way the 6th starter will not get 20+ starts this year is if two thing both happen: 1) All 5 starters stay healthy enough to average 27 starts each. 2) All 5 starters do well enough to never need replacing. I seriously doubt number one happens. In Sox history, I think it's only happened twice since 2003. If number 2 happens and Wright is in the rotation, it would mean Wright is pitching well enough to not need to find out if Pom is better. Of course, the same could be said, if Wright starts out in the pen, but here's where past pen numbers tilt the balance of the decision to preferring Pom in the pen to start the season. Couple this with Pom's stamina questions, and it makes total sense to me to start Pom in the pen to minimize the chances he runs out of steam in September and October. Pom career 1st half /second half splits: 1st half: 3.20 (.636 OPS against) 2nd half: 4.60 (.755) Let's do our best to ease Pom into a successful starting rotation slot by season's end- not season's beginning.

I just wrote a long post showing a huge discrepancy between Sox and Padre home and away ERA & OPS against, inter league ERA & OPS against and numbers vs AL East and NL West, but it got erased when I clicked the "Post Quick Reply" button. Trust me: it matters a lot.

Starters vs AL East 2016: (Over 15 IP unless noted) TOR 1.53 Wright 2.49 Price 4.50 Porcello 5.40 ERod (0.00 Pom 1.1 IP in relief) NYY 2.05 Porcello 2.40 Wright 3.31 ERod 5.00 Pom (9IP) 7.89 Price BAL 2.76 Wright 3.13 Porcello 3.71 Price 3.92 ERod 22.50 Pom (2 IP in 1 GS) TBR 3.06 Pom 3.07 Porcello 4.15 Price 9.00 Wright (4 IP) 11.25 ERod (8 IP) Career: Wright 1.91 vs NYY (33) 2.19 vs TOR (25 IP) 2.45 vs BAL (22) 9.00 vs TBR in just 4 IP Doesn't it make more sense to want to see if these numbers can hold up? Why would anyone want to see if Pom can do better than what we already have? Pom's (some small sample sizes- some the same as Wright) vs AL East: 2.32 TBR (23 IP) 2.52 NYY (25) 4.15 TOR (9) 8.10 BAL (7)