moonslav59

Who is saying they are "instruments?" Most people reach their primes after 24 or so. It's not dehumanizing people to expect improvement as they gain experience, confidence and strength and then decline as their bodies begin to break down.

It's probably much better than throwing a dart. Age progression and decline charts are real. Of course, several players bust out of the norm and have great beginning or ends to their careers, but most follow pretty close to the norm with a few blips here and there- possibly related to injuries. This is one reason I felt it was very odd that 9 out of our top 10 returning players from 2016 saw declines in their OPS- some very significant ones. Only Vaz saw an uptick. Since most of our players were pre-prime or prime, and the others were not far beyond peak prime, I felt it was very strange. Yes, the loss of Papi and nagging injuries contributed to some declines, but I'm expecting upticks for a solid majority of our returning players this year. 2016 OPS> 2017 OPS (Listed in order or most PAs in 2016 (110+ PAs)/ Player & age .897> .803 Betts 23 .802> .746 Bogey 23 .825> .760 Pedey 32 .835> .726 J.B.Jr 26 .866> .750 HRam 32 .705> .548 BHolt 28 .845> .644 SLeon 27 .850> .709 Young 32 .585> .735 Vazqz 25 .835> .776 ABeni 21 Amount of decline/ Player/ Age in 2017 201 Leon 28 157 Holt 29 141 Young 33 116 HRam 33 109 JBJ 27 94 Betts 24 65 Pedey 33 59 Beni 22 56 Bogey 24 +150 Vaz 26 Nobody was over 33 to start the 2017 season. All but Vaz declined. Okay, throw out the top 3 and Vaz from this list for being reserve (platoon) players, but we still see 6 of 6 declines from players between 22 and 34, including 3 by 94 or more points! All six declined by more than 55 points. It wasn't even close for our 6 best returning players. Add Moreland to the next list and possibly Vaz (if he increases his PAs this season) and we have 8 core players plus Devers (.819 in 2017). I'm pretty certain we see upticks in 5 of those 8 players. I expect Vaz to decline and maybe Pedey. Certainly HRam and Moreland can do worse or the same, but I would bet on all 4 of these guys declining next year. (I actually think HRam will top .790 which is already 40 points higher than 2017.) Of course, the odds are at least one from the other 5 declines, but I'm betting 5 or more improve their OPS. (I'm not counting Devers.)

So, couldn't expected "upticks" that would bring several players closer to their prior 2-3 year "norms" be viewed as a return to the expectations or "positive regression"?

I think it's a long shot he make the ML roster even in 2019, but hope springs eternal sometimes, even in winter.

Certainly many players in the history of MLB, especially those in pre-prime, early prime or mid prime, bounce back from a "down year or two" and go on to have "normal" or "better" seasons. Sure, the reason the dipped at an unexpected time on the age/production curve (like so many Sox players last year) could be "wear and tear", but it could also be non-severe, injury related, personal issues or many other reasons. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I, for one, am expecting more upticks than down ticks or leveling out from these young Sox players: Betts Bogey JBJ Beni I'm expecting 3 out of 4 to have a significantly higher WAR next year. Call it age curve expected, call it random, call it "positive regression" or call it whatever you want, but I'm thinking it happens for the Sox this year. Hell, we may even see upticks from HRam, Moreland and even Pedey, when he returns.

Change of subject: here's a look at our top prospects according to soxprospects.com by age group and ranking: Red= ML Ready or possibly ML Ready at some point this season. 19 and under 1. Groome 19 3. B Mata 18 7. C Brannen 19 9. A Scherff 19 15. R Raudes 19 17. D Diaz 17 20-22 2. Chavis 22 4. T Houck 21 6. Ockimey 22 14. D Hernandez 21 23-25 5. S Travis 24 8. M Shawaryn 23 10. J Beeks 24 12. CJ Chatham 23 13. B Dalbec 22 16. J Thompson 23 18. T Lin 23 19. T Lakins 23 26+ 11. B Johnson 27 20. B Brentz 29 21. A Maddox 26 22. H Velazquez 29

We could probably sign Morrison and a decent SP'er for much less money & years than JD. If we can find a taker for HRam and a decent chunk of his contract, we might be able to get Arrieta & Morrison.

If we are really looking at JD as a DH, then maybe plan B could still be... Logan Morrison as a DH Moustakas at 3B & move Devers to DH.

He won't even get $30M x 4 or 5 years, let alone 6. To me, these types of demands or "leaks" make it less likely anyone new enters the bidding and more likely we eventually set a timeline and walk away, if needed.

If Pedey was a FA at the time of the signing, coming off a total 17.5 WAR over his previous 3 seasons, he'd have gotten significantly more than $14M x 8. I still think it was a steal when compared to the market.

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH. As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose. The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

That .797 OPS with STL was the best he had in 3 years. In those 3 years, he never had more than 14 HRs, 60 RBIs or a SLG% abobe .440. JBJ has done better than that. Is he known for his bat?

lol!

Yes, and the back end of Cano's deal will likely be "dicey" as well. Last 3 years with the Yanks (fWAR): 5.1 7.6 5.2 4 years with Seattle: 5.2 2.1 5.9 3.2 You can already see a drop-off.

Cool! One less mistake signing off the books. Also, same contract as Shane Victorino's deal with us.

Then, how much would anyone have to pay to get Pedey out of Boston? (Much more than $14M x 8! Hence my "underpaid" comment.)

I'll take under 81.

Not necessarily. They might be fine with an offer on the table and find it "acceptable" but are hoping to get more by waiting.

JD has had injury issues, but much of his low PA seasons earlier in his career had to do with not being a FT'er.

I'm thinking you misunderstood my question. Let's assume my original example was correct, and that SF outbid us by $2.5M, but the Sox were given a chance to match or beat that offer. Assume, without any OF demands, the Sox NOT were prepared to offer $5M more ($2.5M more than SF) or even $2.5M more. Why would the added demand of JD wanting to play OF make it more likely we'd up our offer?

Yes, he was already set to earn $10M in 2014 with an $11M option for 2015 ($500K buyout). He then signed a $13.75M x 8 year contract. Here are the yearly salaries for the 2Bmen harmony listed: $24M x 10 Robinson Cano $15M x 5 Ian Kinsler $13.75M x 8 Pedroia $13.5M x 2 Chase Utley $12.1M x 6 Brandon Phillips $11.7M x 3 Aaron Hill 2B WAR from 2014-2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Despite the injuries, Pedey still placed 6th at $14.5. While I agree with those that think the fangraphs value numbers are inflated, here they are: 2007: $20.8M 2008: $39.2M 2009: $29.6M 2010: $19.2M 2011: $59.6M 2012: $29.1M 2013: $38.3M (Pre contract) 2014: $31.3M (Post contract) 2015: $20.7M 2016: $42.8M 2017: $15.4M He apparently earned more than his average salary every year after signing but still has the back 4 years to go. However, he's already earned more than $110M already by this measure... just over the full contract amount in just 4 years! (Noe: I do not agree he has earned $110M by his play over the last 4 years.)

8 words: Did I say it was "at the time"?

Maybe a scratch ticket.

Yes, and he was the best 2Bman.

True, but much of JD's low PA seasons were a result of him not being FT until rather late in his career- not injuries.