moonslav59

No, but with just a 12% tax next year, I think the Sox may go $19M over next year and 2019 (20% tax).

Maybe the silent bats will rise up and do what it takes to bail Fister out.

I'm not saying I'm for getting Reed, but I thinks that's the type of deal we'll make. We need a set-up guy that can dominate. Maybe inconsistency is a by-product and maybe help will lead to our downfall, but I can't see us winning it all with this pen, even if Kelly comes back healthy.

Ben inherited a mess. He made some big mistakes. The 4 you mentioned and several more. DD inherited a better overall situation, because he had many top assets to trade- thanks to Ben and to a lesser extent, Theo. When DD's era is over and a comparison is made, these aspects need to be taken into consideration.

Losing sure brings out the best of us.

The fact that DD has used many of Ben's acquisitions to get us to where we have been since the start of 2016 has to count for something. If Price continues to imitate Buccholz, and we keep seeing injuries like Thornburg and Smith and struggles by Porcello and our whole line-up, DD may end up with no rings and no farm.

Yes, and the fact that we are looking to acquire a top RP'er now shows that DD was right in his team need evaluation. We needed to fix our pen. The first half over performance by our pen has hid the issue up to now, but we needed a top set-up man then and still do now due to Thornburg's injury.

Good post. It could happen. If we got Bruce, it would mean HRam plays 1B FT and Moreland is benched. Not unrealistic. I've always liked Gray, but the injury situations scare the hell out of me. I doubt we trade for a starter or a big bat. I think DD makes a move for a solid #2 RP'er (currently a closer like Reed).

Those 4 players really hurt us badly. I just pointed out that there was a lot of good Ben did, and he set DD up very well. Let's see how DD ranks after 4 years.

Cots has ERod scheduled for his first of 4 arbs in 2018.

They don't need to stay under next year. That's why we are trying to reset the level this year. We can go $20M over next year.

Better idea.

I still think the Dodger dump trade was one of the best deals any Sox GM ever made. He helped purge Theo's mistakes and make the team able to compete for many years afterwards. Uehara was maybe Ben's best get and re-sign. Also, I'd say the one year deal with bonuses attached for Napoli in 2013 was better than the Vic deal. He also trade Lowrie and Weiland for Mark Melancon. The Cody Ross signing was very good. Other good deals: Lars Anderson for Steven Wright Signed Rich Hill for dirt- twice. Acquired Mike Carp for cash. Signed Int'l FAs: Moncada (C Sale), Manuel Margot & J Guerra (Kimbrel), both Basabes, T-W Lin, and others- many used in trades by DD. Drafted & signed: Benintendi (7), Marrero (24), M Chavis (26), B Johnson (31), M Kopech (33), S Travis (67) and several others- many used in trades by DD.

At least Votto has shown no signs of decline or instability like HRam and Pablo did before their signings. Other than 2014, Votto has been between .947 and 1.021 every year since 2009 (8 of 9 seasons). He does turn 34 this September, so the future decline concern should be real. He will turn 40 his final year of his contract (2023). He also has a $7M buyout for 2024 (age 40-41) or a $20M option. His 6 to 7 year remaining deal seems like it's too long for a post-prime player, and we'd have to hope he doesn't turn into an Albert Pujols, but I think he's worth making a serious offer for. I'm not sure what it would take, so I'll hold off saying he'd be worth getting.

True, but no Vic- No ring.

Reed would be a great get but at what cost for a 2 month rental RP'er? To me, Groome & Chavis would be too much. I might give Ockimey or Travis plus Beeks and/or Lakins. We could add Holt (or Marrero/Lin). If they wanted Holt, we'd save some cash. They could flip Holt to someone.

They look at the formula, and with Bogey's decline this year from 2016, Boras will ask for what he thinks he might get from the arb hearing. The Sox will look at the formula and come up with their number. My guess is both will fall in the $7-11M range. (Note: I'm no expert on arbs, but I came pretty close last year.)

It comes down to the final cost Henry will have to pay. Looking at just 2018, assuming we reset the tax this year: A) Bring Castillo up. Pay him $11M. Luxury tax cost: $11M. Sign a FA for $5M/1 yr. Pay Castillo $11M + $5M for new FA= $16M plus luxury tax cost (12% of $16M= about $2M)= $18M The bigger problem would occur as we enter Castillo's 5th, 6th and 7th years of his deal. If he sucks, we cannot remove him from the luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract, and the tax would go up to %20%, 30% and then 50%. Now, we're talking about calling him up probably being worse than signing a FA for those next 3 years. It's not a simple choice to make. DD and Henry will have to gauge the likelihood of Castillo being a plus for the remainder of his contract. That's a risk. 12% + 20% + 30% + 50% of $11M totals over $12M in additional luxury taxes that Henry would not have to pay had he left Castillo in Purgatory.

Pablo got $19M x 5. I think the Bogey numbers mentioned are for his arb number- not his FA number.

Then watch Votto steadily decline and eat up cap space.

It's Henry's call not ours. I love for us to blow by the luxury tax limit every year. Until I see it, even from "far away" Texas, I won't believe it. I think the plan is to re-set this year and then throw money at fixing the major problems with this team- most notably the lack of power. I also think we still have a good chance at winning this year too, but 2018 to 2019 should be better.

I'm not ready to fold in on 2017, but I agree. The idea was that we can blow by the luxury tax limit in 2018 and 2019 as long as we don't reach the second penalty phase. We can make a major signing next winter to boost the clean-up slot in our order. We may even be able to sign two big names.

edited with an addition

I have suggested replacing JF way back when. I am not against adding a big bat 1Bman, but think the luxury tax re-set is a higher priority. Some significant bats have been traded already that would not have put us over the limit or broken the farm. I'm not sure the hitting coach is at fault, but maybe a change there might help. I do expect some of our players to improve their numbers by season's end with or without any changes. I think some of our players are better than what they have shown so far, and I expect them to play like they are as we finish out this season. Could I be wrong? hell, yes, but we have players who have done very well for 1.5 or more years before 2017, and their numbers are just about all down this year. I get the loss of Papi argument. I get the "wish we had signed EE" argument, but we weren't lighting the world on fire when Moreland was hitting as well as EE for the first 2 months of 2017. I'm not sure there is any single element to the wide spread declines of virtually all of our batters. I'm not sure there's much we can do about it besides maybe trying to light a spark by firing JF or trading for another bat beyond Nunez. My guess is, we just ride it out and hope the first 4 months of 2017 were the outlier and not 2016.

I didn't mean to imply we should have brought them all back, and at the time, I was not for bringing any back at even less than what they ended up getting. My point was we needed to replace their 2016 numbers and guys like Kelly, Barnes and Hembree were not instilling uber confidence in us fans back last winter and spring. We all felt our pen needed additions. S5 was right about our tendencies towards revisionist histories. Here are Shaw's numbers by halves before the trade: '16 .619 MLB .788 MLB '15 .839 MLB .674 AAA (YES, just .674 before his call-up!) '14 .752 AAA (Again, not very good for AAA.) .954 AA '13 .721 AA (Not good) .744 AA (Not very good) '12 .781 AA (Okay for first half after promotion) .957 A+ (Note: second half is listed first, and TS had a long history of dropping off in the second half, although several year he was promoted to a higher level mid season.) Let's not pretend that Shaw was a sure bet to have an OPS over .790 this year, let alone over .940. He wasn't even over .790 the first half of 2016. In his 9 half seasons before his trade (all at AA or higher), Shaw had these OPS: 2 over .790 4 from .722-.789 1 from .676-.721 2 under .675 7 of 9 halves were under .790. He had as many seasons under .675 as over .790, and both were in his last 4 half seasons.