moonslav59

Maybe a half season or more with no Pedey and no ERod. No 38 games from Nunez, but no 32 games from Pablo, 90 games from Young, 37 games from Rutledge and probably less games from Leon. Yes, many games added onto the 58 Devers got last year, but what about this? More games by Vaz. Probably more games from Price. More games Carson Smith. More games from Steven Wright. More games from Brandon Workman. Hopefully many games from Thornburg. Possibly more games from Maddox & Velazquez. Yes, these guys won't help the offense, but they should help us win some more games.

It's also not unrealistic to expect a player who is approaching prime to get even better year by year. He could have a career year. True, he may have also already had his career year.

Me too. He looked pretty good at the end of last year.

Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic. Is it any more unrealistic than to think we'd decline by 11% in runs scored from 2016 to 2017? If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else. Scoring 50 more runs this year would still be 43 less than 2016. Yes, we lost Papi from the 2016 team, but we've added Beni, Devers and our young stars are reaching prime.

For half of 2018.

I don't see it that way.

He may be doing taht already. I'm sure he has put fliers out to at least a couple other big named FAs. This may be one reason nobody else is signing. Once JD signs, the next guy may get a fresh and maybe a little more desperate bidder.

Your guys already busted out. They are due for a a dip. All Sox players are due for huge bust outs this year. So, to answer your question, "YES!"

It certainly make me want him more, but we already signed Moreland.

Wow, who is Abreu's agent? Sponge Bob Squarepants?

Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

I can agree with that, but projections made with the age curve as part of projections will likely be way more accurate.

I had little faith in Bruce. He's had a couple decent seasons recently .832 and .815, but not really all that great. Yes, the 36 and 33 HRs the last two season would fill that clean-up slot nicely. Yes, $39M/3 beats the hell out of $125M/5. I just look back on 2014 (.654) and 2015 (.729) and he scares the hell out of me!

The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

Gotcha. I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.

Yes, I agree, and it also goes beyond budget limits. It has to do with how much of an overpay is acceptable and how much value is projected from JD.

I wouldn't be shocked (or heartbroken), if JD signs elsewhere, as long as we make some sort of significant improvement over our 2017 team (on paper).

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

Counting rookie seasons as part of the "norm" is not realistic. Betts, Bogey and JBJ all had worse seasons than 2016 or 2017. All are just entering prime years. Pedey is at the end of prime. Expecting a worse 2017 than 2015 and 2016 in not unrealistic, but he's still young enough to have an uptick here and there, assuming good health. HRam has traditionally been up and down. It's not unrealistic to think he could hit .850 in 2018. Yes, JBJ, Beni and Devers are too hard to identify what their "norm" is, so it's even harder to expect a "regression" to something so nebulous.

No, just improve over 2017. Many declined over 2016 numbers as well: .832 JBJ .820 Betts .797 Pedey .776 Bogey .727 Holt HRam was at .817 in 2014. I'm not asking for career bests, but actually, we should expect one of two from our 5 or 6 players between 21 and 28 to have their best seasons (or close to it).

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend? The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?) Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks. It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

If we got Moose, there would be no DH platoon. Moose greatly improves our IF defense. Moose gives us the power clean-up hitter we need. Devers greatly improves our DH numbers. He could play 1B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs. Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. HRam plays 1B vs all LHPs. HRam DHs when Moose or Devers need a day off. The platoon is 1B not DH. (We could also try to dump HRam.)

Who is saying they are "instruments?" Most people reach their primes after 24 or so. It's not dehumanizing people to expect improvement as they gain experience, confidence and strength and then decline as their bodies begin to break down.

It's probably much better than throwing a dart. Age progression and decline charts are real. Of course, several players bust out of the norm and have great beginning or ends to their careers, but most follow pretty close to the norm with a few blips here and there- possibly related to injuries. This is one reason I felt it was very odd that 9 out of our top 10 returning players from 2016 saw declines in their OPS- some very significant ones. Only Vaz saw an uptick. Since most of our players were pre-prime or prime, and the others were not far beyond peak prime, I felt it was very strange. Yes, the loss of Papi and nagging injuries contributed to some declines, but I'm expecting upticks for a solid majority of our returning players this year. 2016 OPS> 2017 OPS (Listed in order or most PAs in 2016 (110+ PAs)/ Player & age .897> .803 Betts 23 .802> .746 Bogey 23 .825> .760 Pedey 32 .835> .726 J.B.Jr 26 .866> .750 HRam 32 .705> .548 BHolt 28 .845> .644 SLeon 27 .850> .709 Young 32 .585> .735 Vazqz 25 .835> .776 ABeni 21 Amount of decline/ Player/ Age in 2017 201 Leon 28 157 Holt 29 141 Young 33 116 HRam 33 109 JBJ 27 94 Betts 24 65 Pedey 33 59 Beni 22 56 Bogey 24 +150 Vaz 26 Nobody was over 33 to start the 2017 season. All but Vaz declined. Okay, throw out the top 3 and Vaz from this list for being reserve (platoon) players, but we still see 6 of 6 declines from players between 22 and 34, including 3 by 94 or more points! All six declined by more than 55 points. It wasn't even close for our 6 best returning players. Add Moreland to the next list and possibly Vaz (if he increases his PAs this season) and we have 8 core players plus Devers (.819 in 2017). I'm pretty certain we see upticks in 5 of those 8 players. I expect Vaz to decline and maybe Pedey. Certainly HRam and Moreland can do worse or the same, but I would bet on all 4 of these guys declining next year. (I actually think HRam will top .790 which is already 40 points higher than 2017.) Of course, the odds are at least one from the other 5 declines, but I'm betting 5 or more improve their OPS. (I'm not counting Devers.)

So, couldn't expected "upticks" that would bring several players closer to their prior 2-3 year "norms" be viewed as a return to the expectations or "positive regression"?