moonslav59

He has a long history of asking for much more than his players end up getting. Sure, some get pretty close (like Fielder). The same goes to owners who start low and end up signing players for significantly more than their first offer. The Vtek situation is the example of Boras failing his client miserably. I wasn't trying to imply that type of result occurs often. I'm just saying Boras clients often end up signing for much less that the beginning stated suggested signing price given by Boras.

If we are willing to pay him $125M/5, and we walk away and let him settle for less, what have we gained? The only danger is losing out on our secondary options by waiting. Since nobody else is signing, I don't see the urgency in forcing the issue. That risks a lose-lose situation. I know it's frustrating for us fans to wait and wait, and I'd be fine with moving on from JD by maybe signing Darvish and Nunez, but if JD is truly the number one option, I'm not giving up just because Boras is looking for more at this moment.

Or, "The Refrigerator Thread."

I know we all feel frustrated by this waiting game, but to me, there is no urgency until our other options begin to sign elsewhere. If DD only has one other major option, and that player is about to sign, then something like this makes sense. If there's a chancde that option signs quickly without notice to us (giving us a chance to top the offer) then, I agree, the time could be now.

Agree. The top offer may be close to $125M/5, and Boras has probably told JD, he thinks he might be able to get a little more by waiting.

Nunez may be a partial fall back, in case we do not land JD. We may go with Nunez & Darvish at close to the same AVV as JD.

This is not something new to Boras. He often asks for the moon and stars only to settle for way less. I don't see the JD starting point as out of line with past initial Boras starting numbers.

Both Kimmi and Moon simply fails to acknowledge the fact that coming on heels of two last place finishes, DD did what he felt necessary to turn the club around. He was hired to get the f*** out of last place. Maybe he overpaid, so what? Stop mischaracterizing my position. 1) I was fine with the Price signing: the overpay was necessary. 2) I loved the Chris Sale trade. There is absolutely no doubt on that one. After all, it was... Chris "freakin" Sale! 3) I have never said Ben did not mistakes, and I believe he was poised to make some mega trades and signings had DD not replaced him, maybe not the same exact deals, but surely some very significant ones. 4) I have never been against trading prospects. I've suggested hundreds of those type of trades over the years and have even suggested some in the past few weeks. Yes, I think we traded too much of the farm away. I was against the Kimbrel & Pom deals, but recognized they were designed to help us for a pretty wide window. They have worked as planned. I have said this over and over. Please stop saying I "fail to acknowledge" these facts. I'm not claiming you failed to acknowledge that Ben put teams on the field that most felt would be competitive, but who ended up finishing last.

That sounds about right. We might add a thrid year option at $6M with a $1M buyout, thereby reducing the luxury tax cost to $5M ($15M/3 assuming we turn down the option).

With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players. I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed) The Power Guys: #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%. The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%. The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%. The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er. The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er. The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go. The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise. Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely. The 2020 40 man roster: SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?) RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey 2B: Pedey, Hernandez 3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec SS: ______, Lin or Chatham LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: (JDMartinez?)

Revenues eclipsed $10 billion for the first time last year after being only $7B in 2011. Sounds like MLB is doing fine. Revenues up 43% in just six years!

Two from MLBTR... 1) Red Sox chairman Tom Werner acknowledged today that the organization is engaged in active talks with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal was among those to report on Twitter. While noting that “it takes two” sides to get a deal done, Werner certainly gave plenty of reason to believe that the Boston organization isn’t done adding to its roster. Of course, the interest in Martinez is longstanding and well known; earlier today, it emerged that the Sox have made an offer of $25MM annually over a five-year term. 2) Infielder Eduardo Nunez has worked out for the Red Sox, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. We learned earlier today about developing interest in the utilityman, who thrived in a brief, injury-shortened stretch in Boston in 2017. Nunez has long seemed likely to draw wide interest after three straight seasons of average or better production at the plate, but understandably has seen a quiet market to this point while recovering from a knee injury. Now that he has been cleared for activity, Nunez can try to max out his value. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Nunez would command two years and $14MM.

I get your point and don't necessarily disagree, but what if that team making that "extra $20M" thanks to larger market teams paying them off still makes just a small fraction of the profit the big teams make? In what other business besides sports do people play (on the road) in front of millions of people and viewers and not get a cent from the gate or TV package? I always felt like the gate and TV money should be split 505-50 between the home and away teams. Big market teams would still make more as half their games are in their market, but the split would be more fair in several ways. Teams might start complaining when they walk away NY City with a big pay check and then go on a road trip to Oakland and make peanuts.

Do they look at minor league metrics? (Do they even have minor league advanced metrics?)

If they all sign for about their expected numbers, I'm not sure anything "devious" happened. It does make you wonder....

Sounds about right.

God bless his soul, but Tom Petty said it best... The waiting is the hardest part...

I know that, but my point was that people said, back then, that teams were waiting to sign big free agents until after the Stanton and Othani decisions were made. They were made long ago. Still, nothing but the sound of crickets...

That's what people said before the Stanton trade and the Othani decision.

I'm convinced we can be the top bidder, if we want to be. I'm not convinced who all the interested parties are, but I'm pretty sure no big spending teams are involved (so far).

We can't assume he can repeat one season at AAA at the ML level. He's had much worse years, too.

I know, that's why I brought up his name. Ben is not the only reason we are over the limit and facing a tax on Castillo, if added to the roster.

Price was not the only option in 2016. We could have won the division by spending that money elsewhere. (Note: I was okay with the signing, but I'm just saying...)

Chavis has been hurt, so I think some view last year as his first real test on pro ball, and he did well. I'm cautiously optimistic on Chavis.

I don't disagree, but if any bi contract was not part of our budget, we wouldn't have to worry about the tax on Castillo.