moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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You guys place too much value on just "what have you done for me recently". A player's value is not set by one arbitrary sample size, such as just last season. If that was the case, why weren't you guys suggesting we extend Porcello ay $25M per after 2016's Cy Young Award? It seems like you selectively choose what previous from last years's samples to use based on whether you like a guy or not. Porcello has been under 3.45 in 2 of his last 4 seasons and about replacement level the other two (with max innings), yet you want to attach a value of replacement level only. With Boston, he's been a 5.5 bWar and 8.7 fWAR pitcher. Call him a 6.5 to 7.0, and one can argue he's worth every penny we've paid him so far. Even at 5.5, he's close....much closer than other Sox players more worthy of condemnation.
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He can pay back the money he owes from the bonus we'd have had to pay him for underpaying him in 2016 and maybe 2015.
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While I do agree, WAR rewards innings pitched too highly, there is tremendous value in getting that many innings from one guy. Replacement level players rarely give you 200+ innings at a 4.25 ERA (Porcello's career mark) and an occaisonal Cy Young Award.
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Still hoping for a SP'er signing to a minor league deal.
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Exactly how I feel. I'll add that Marrero's real offensive weakness comes only vs LHPs, so if we can avoid having him face lefties by just using him as a late inning defensive replacement and spot starter vs righties, we can minimize his offensive problems. Marrero's splits: .487 vs RHPs .710 vs LHPs
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While Nunez is better than Devers at 3B, defensively, it's not by a whole lot, so Devers would have to be slumping for Nunez to ever take meaningful PAs away from Devers at 3B. UZR/150 at 3B NUnez -10.5 in 1857 innings Deevers -12.9 in 579 innings (Note: Nunez is -17.1 at 2B and -18.3 at SS but +16.8 in the OF in just 322 innings though) On who the utility guy is you are right, who cares? However, with Pedey's return not really a certainty, and Nunez needed at several positions as a back-up, it makes sense to keep as many infield options available as possible. Since marrero is the only one out of options, I think he hangs on, until the Pedey return is certain.
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Year after year, Leon does better with more pitchers than Vaz or Swihart. I guess you want to chalk it up as luck. Yes, pitchers have up and down years. Yes, it's not always the catcher's fault, if they do badly. Yes, luck and timing plays a role. 3 years of similar outcomes are not something to just ignore. I provided the data for 3 years. Call it noise, if you want, but when the seven returning pitchers who had 60+ PAs with both Leon and Vaz all did better with Leon, and 5 or 6 did way better, I'm not DFA'ing Leon, until I see Vaz has improved in this area. Swihart has a long way to go to get even with Vaz, let alone Leon in this area.
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Sox to hire Alex Cora as manager
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Not me. He was hurt. He's healthy now. With Pedey out, HRam has the 4th best OPS of a returning player. If you count Devers and Nunez (just with BOS), then he's 6th best. If you want to cut our 4th or best, then what next? Bogey, Vaz and JBJ (7th, 8th and 9th best)? He deserves a look, even if he wasn't getting $22M. He's getting a longer look, because he's making $22M. Last year, the Sox stated he was not going to play 1B for the rest of the year. That's how bad the injury was. I guess you have no faith in the modern invention called "surgery." Even cherry-picking a three year sample size for HRam that encompasses 2 injury-plagued seasons (or DFA seasons as you call them), here's a comp you should look at: 3 year OPS .785 HRam .776 Bogey .774 Nunez .768 Moreland -
Now, you'rec hanging the narrative. You said he has not earned his contract and then repeated it. As to signing him now to $42M/2 is not a fair question. FA prices have dropped this year, and Porcello is now just turning to the downside of prime. Ask me if I'd repeat the signing we made 2 years ago, and I'd say yes. It's not a clear yes, but nevertheless, I'd say yes. Why not find someone more deserving of your Sox bash crusade?
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I repeat. Stop using just one season to judge a player. I repeat. He has been worth his contracts with us, so far. I repeat. We need innings eaters who can pitch like a Cy Young winner from time to time.
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The Red Sox will welcome reliever Tyler Thornburg back to the hill for the first time since he underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. A bullpen session is just one of many steps back, of course, and Thornburg still has some hurdles to clear. He has yet to pitch competitively for the Boston organization (excepting brief spring action last year) since coming over in a trade in advance of the 2017 season.
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Gross hyperbole. He's never even had a season over 5.00. let alone a career ERA of that. (It's 4.25.) He's been under 3.44 in two of the last his last 4 seasons of his prime years.
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Who are some half-way decent journeymen vets still left looking for a minor league deal?
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I'll be happier when he actually learns how to play the position, but he's worth watchin' and waitin'. OOOps, I thought you were talking about Devers.
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Sox to hire Alex Cora as manager
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm going off reports HRam is already penciled in at the 3 slot. Maybe I misread something. -
Sox to hire Alex Cora as manager
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Add Nunez and Devers and HRam is still 5th or 6th best in any Sox sample size from 1 to 3 years. Also, if you use all of 2017 or 2015-2017 numbers for Nunez, HRam comes out ahead. -
Mookie's greatest attribute might be the one we drafted him on: super twitch responses. I'm not saying he's not smart, and I think he will learn and grow and get better.
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Lin has options and can be stashed in AAA. If Holt looks recovered, I'm fine with cutting Marrero loose when or before Pedey returns.
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Pitcher w Leon/ w Swi Miley .738/.756 Porc .934/.766 ERod .377/.662 Wrght .368/.719 Buch .627/ n/a RHill .410/ na
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Starter OPS against by catcher in 2016: Pitcher w Leon/ w Vaz Price .681 / .745 Porc .588 / .694 ERod .747 / .693 Buch .675 / .812 Wright .842 / .684
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That's an option, and he has the most value in trade. Vaz should improve, but I'm not trading or DFA'ing Leon, until I see it happen. I'm just not getting why you dislike a catcher who continuously gets the best out of the staff-- not just 2017. Is Holt really that fantastic?
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Swihart can play 1B and LF. I've said it a hundred times. I'm fine with trading Swihart, but I'd like to keep all 3 around.
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So, you're betting on Vaz getting that much better, when he's already had about the same PAs with each pitcher on this staff as Leon and has done much worse with 5 of the 8 guys both catch often and worse with 7 of 8. The one guy Vaz did better with was Boyer, and he's not even here. He did do pretty close with Porcello, so we could give him Rick and let him keep Pom and Price. The real comp is Swihart vs Leon. I would shudder to give Swihart Sale & ERod full time.
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Not ones who have already built a rapport with the staff that is second to none. It's not even close with Vaz. It will be a massive differential with Swihart. Plus, Leon hits RHPs okay, so just avoid letting him hit lefties. Since we'll have 3 catchers, that will be easier to do now.
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Nunez plays better OF than Holt or JD.
