moonslav59

I can see the "try anything" philosophy, if things were going bad for the 3, but they've been better than most 6-8 innings RP'ers in MLB. I do wish we had a more solid 8th inning/spot closer pitcher, but certainly Buttrey is not that guy for 2018. At best, we'd likely just be adding another semi-consistent 6-8 inning guy.

It's a fact that he has hit the ball hard for a long time with little results, until the last week or two. I've been watching him closely on keeping his eyes on the ball. It does appear, at times, that he does pull his head up before the ball reaches his bat. He's not the only hitter that does that, and even very consistently good hitters do that from time to time. Yes, numbers don't lie. Here's a few numbers from 2015-2018-- a large enough sample size, for sure: Hard Hit Balls: 34.8% Betts 34.6% JBJ 31.6% Beni 30.7% Bogey Soft Hit Balls: 16.0% JBJ 16.7% Betts 17.6% Beni 17.6% Pedey 20.0% Bogey OPS .871 Betts .815 Beni .815 Beni .795 Pedey .785 Bogey .767 JBJ .704 Holt .767 is not a fluke. Yes, it is largely sustained by a few mega hot streaks, but the numbers don't lie. .767 and GG type defense is a sure plus to any team.

Yes, and they are very accurate at what they do. The favorites win way more than the underdogs. If the odds maker puts the line at -105 or -110, then yes, it's maybe a "crap shoot", but even then, the favorite wins more than the underdog.

OPS over last 14 days 1.133 Leon 1.053 JD .967 JBJ .947 Moreland .909 Nunez .874 Devers Notice how many of these bat in the 7-9 slots. .849 Betts .841 Bogey .769 Vaz .681 Holt .604 Beni .333 Swihart

Last 30 Days Hard Hit% 45 JBJ 43 JD 43 Vaz 40 Moreland 39 Bogey 38 Betts 37 Leon 35 Devers 30 Beni 29 Holt 28 Nunez Medium + hard hit % 93 Leon 89 JBJ 87 Betts 87 Moreland 84 Bogey 84 JD 84 Beni 81 Holt 79 Vaz 75 Devers 74 Nunez

If the 3 stooges are all in the top 45 RP'ers in MLB, they must be more consistent than most teams have after their closer. Sure, none of these 3 are very consistent, but how many RP'ers in MLB are viewed as consistent? These 3 are among the best that are not considered "consistent". Buttrey? Really? Are you mad?

I listed the 8+ year deals of over $160M and there was a stark difference between those signed to players under the age of 27 and those between 27-29 and those to players 30 or older. ARod signed at 25 (2001); under .910 just 2 out of 10 years and never under .847. Stanton's extension started at age 25. He's got 9 years left. He'll only be 37 the last year of his deal. Posey's started at 26 (9 year deal): Jury still out Heyward's deal started at 26 and looks like a bust (8 years) Jeter's deal started right at age 27: I'd say it was close to a wash. (Lots of debate on that call.) Kemp's started at age 27 and was a bust for the most part. Prince Fielder's contract started at age 28 and the injury made it a bust. Joe Mauer's started at age 28 and has been a bust, IMO. Altuve's (28) is a 7 year deal and just started. Miggy's first year was at age 33: Bust Pujols' first year was at age 32: Bust Cano's first year was at age 31: Jury still out, but his highest 5 OPS years were all with NYY. Votto's started at age 30: so far - very good. Chris Davis at age 30: looks like bust, so far. Teixeira started at 29- I'd say a let down Manny's started at age 29 and was a success. .

I disagree. The oddsmakers are right much more than wrong.

I realize the play-in game hurts our chances, but not having a strong Sale all but kills our chances. Plus, we've done great winning with our 6-9 starters pitching, so I'm not so sure resting our starters is going to hurt our division chances all that much. Also, having rested starters gives them a better chance at winning when they do pitch in the regular season, especially in August and September. I do have some evidence to support my position. Sale is 25-29 over his career in AUG/SEP. How is pitching him more often going to help us win more games down the stretch and win the division? His ERA is under 2.68 in May, June and July (career), but jumps to 3.22 in AUG and 3.78 in SEP. Over Price's career, he seems to get stronger as the season moves towards fall, but he's really struggled in October. I don't think more rest would hurt him. Porcello has not shown many signs of breaking down by season's end over his career. ERod is on pace for over 163 IP. That's 26 more than last year and much more than any other MLB season. He did pitch 145 innings on the farm back in 2013. Now, to our 6-9 starters: I know I often harp on posters who use the most recent small sample sizes to try and project what will or should happen going forward, but our starter depth has been very strong, so far this year. 2-0 2.53 Velazquez 1-0 1.80 Johnson 1-1 4.13 Wright 0-1 13.50 Beeks In 9 starts by these 4 pitchers, we have a team record of 7-2. We're 7-1 with Beeks excluded. Wright, Johnson & Velazquez, as starters, have a combined ERA of 3.22. I know my position is not popular, and it wasn't last year either, but last year's playoff performances by our SP'ers only strengthens my position.

I'm hopeful the beefing up, off season workout regime Holt is coming off of, will help him to not fall off a cliff like he seems to do every summer/fall. On Nunez, I still think it is all related to his knee, and I think the Sox will try to give him a long period of rest at some point maybe after the Yankee series) by putting him on the DL. That will also give Phillips a chance to show how much he's got left in his tank. I'm not as worried about 2B as many are, but I have concern.

I'm no expert on swing analysis, but I'll say it again, I love JBJ's swing despite it being a bit too long and loopy, and I don't really see any difference in his swing now vs, when he is slumping. He's just making more and harder contact now. (Just my opinion.)

While I don't have a ton of confidence or faith in Kelly, Barnes and Hembree, they've gotten the job done for almost a year and a half now. In terms of WAR, not a stat I like all that much for RP'ers, here's how our RP'ers place in WAR since the start of 2017 (90+ IP): 2. Kimbrel 4.1 20. Barnes 1.9 38. Kelly 1.2 46. Hembree 0.9 If you figure there are 30 teams in MLB, each team should have 1.5 in the top 46. We have 4, including each and every one of the 3 stooges. That being said, I'd love for us to pick up an excellent 8th inning guy, so we can turn these 3 into 6th and 7th inning pitchers. I'm not sure we have the budget space and pieces to trade to make that happen, but as of right now, I'd say that is our Highest need to upgrade position. One stat I like to use to place value on RP'ers is WHIP. 1. Kimbrel 0.74 25. Kelly 1.15 27. Barnes 1.17 (3 in the top 30 is very nice) 63. Hembree 1.38 How about xFIP-? 1. Kimbrel 45 9. Barnes 71 (WOW!) 27. Hembree 87 45. Kelly 94 Again, 4 in the top 45 but 2 in the top 10!

Updated Sox OPS 1.101 Betts 1.042 JD .905 Moreland .882 Beni .854 Bogey .787 Holt .717 Devers .657 Leon .649 Nunez .626 JBJ .580 Vaz .404 Swihart JBJ was at .563 before the game on June 24th! It just took 4 games to go up 53 points. He was at .502 on May 19th.

I agree 100%. I was just responding to your comment that Bogey was just 25. He may be young, but it's more about years of team control. Yes, the Mets do not want 1 more year of Bogey for 2 years of degrom. That's backwards for them.

I see some areas I'd love to upgrade in a big way. It's not that I don't want some of the players you have mentioned. I'm sure DD would like to have some, too. The problem is, we have very little budget space and very few ML ready prospects not on the DL or just coming off PED suspension. We can't afford to trade existing key players, because it would just open up another hole that I feel is bigger than any "hole" we have now. Would it be nice to get an ace for the playoffs? Hell, yes! But, trading Beni and/or Bogey to get one solves a smaller problem than the one(s) it creates. Would it be nice to get a great 2Bman? HELL, YES! But again, we don't have the pieces to get one. DD has gone all out to build the team we have. It's not a perfect team. It has some areas that could use upgrades- no doubt, but he's done just about all that can be done, exept for some minor tweaks. I'll be shocked, if we get anyone like degrom, Dozier, Abreu, Gennett or Merrifield. You keep asking me about a big trade like these, and my answer is always the same. I'm glad you finally asked about a trade I feel might be more reasonable. I do think we might be able to trade for a pretty good set-up man, perhaps even someone who is a closer now. I'm no expert on RP'ers from other teams, but I have mentioned the A's Treinen and the CWS' Soria (with cash). I'm not seeing any marlin pen arms I like, except maybe Barraclough, but he could just be a flash in the pan.

I'm not sure GMs assign value based on just what you've done for the last 3 months. Someone might want Nunez. We don't need anything in return, except the freed up salary space. Then, Phillips could come up and do just as poorly as Nunez has been doing.

Bogey's 25, but he only has one more arb year left, while degrom has 2 left. We're not trading Beni, but the Bogey idea has more of a chance. Our problem is, who plays SS? Lin & Holt? Then, that forces Nunez to play 2B FT, or we call up Phillips. I always love any idea that upgrades our rotation from the top and not the middle or bottom, but I just don't see us having the right pieces to make it happen.

He's Moreland's insurance. They both bat LH'd, so he's not a good platoon match-up with Moreland-- like Pearce is. Lind will never get called up, unless MM goes on the DL or when September call-ups occur.

Yes, Beni is our only sure bet star signed beyond 3 years. (Okay, maybe Devers makes two.)

DD already got all the big fish he could afford. I'm nearly certain he won't do anything as bold as you are suggesting.

Near minimum, so even if we replace him with a minor leaguer, we save nothing.

I don't disagree with anything here, but if we have to free up some money, maybe we will trade Nunez or Holt and use Phillips to fill in for the one we trade.

I wouldn't give either one, and I'm all about great SP'ers. If we had another SS, I'd think about Bogey, but beni has way too many years of team control to even consider a deal like this.

Word is that we got cash with Pearce, so maybe we're not over the limit. Trade season officially started for the Red Sox on Thursday night, when president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski reeled in veteran right-handed hitter Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Blue Jays in exchange for Minor League infielder Santiago Espinal.

You just said you did not want to trade JBJ.