moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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My line-up suggestion does not have radical slot movement. It's only different from Cora's line-ups with the Beni-Betts flips. Word is Cora will make moves anyway by moving Betts to 2 and Beni to 1, so my plan is barely different in terms of changing player comfort slots.
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We're about $5M from the max line now. It might be hard to stay under.
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I'm not as bad as I used to be.
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I agree. JBJ is probably 3rd. We may let Porcello walk.
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When your over the luxury tax limit the comp picks are not very good. Look what we are getting for Kimbrel.
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Bogey has a 100 point better OBP vs LHPs than Beni. To me, that's at least close enough a margin to think about flipping them. I do think comfort level matters, but I think it is overblown for most players. Besides, it's not like Beni &* Bogey have settled into 1 particular slot. They've been moved about their whole, short careers. PAs by Slot 2018/Career Beni 2018 (w OPS) 551 second .809 97 first .979 9 third .708 Career 840 second .794 204 third .736 97 first .979 94 ninth .929 80 forth ,722 55 fifth .720 39 sixth 1.143 Bogey 2018 363 fifth .923 113 fourth .899 64 second .844 39 third .516 2019 1154 third .808 562 second .792 472 fifth .875 363 sixth .667 231 seventh .523 1.72 eighth .898 128 first .824 114 fourth .902
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Only 3 years and never over 322 PAs.
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I totally agree. Losing Bogey will hurt badly, but we could get better SS defense to partially offset the loss on offense. We might also keep JBJ and let Bogey walk.
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Isn't Dalbec is a better defender than Devers and Chavis?
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2021 Price Eovaldi ERod Wright Johnson Velazquez' Shawaryn/Groome/Houck Barnes Brasier Hembree Poyner Feltman Lakins 1. Beni LF 2. Betts RF 3. Devers 3B/1B/DH 4. Chavis DH/1B 5. Dalbec 3B/1B 6. _______ CF 7. Chatham SS 8. Lin/Hernandez 2B 9. Vaz C
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Yes, I forgot. We could still be a fair team without Sale, Porcello, JD and Bogey with $38M to spend plus some prospects filling in, but not highly competitive.
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There would have to be some sort of salary offset for any deal with Pitt, IMO.
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Or, if one was done?
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Yes, and some say 5th is more important than 4th, but I want JD 4th. I don't go by just one season, but for this analysis, I will. 2018 Splits: vs RHPs (OBP)/SLG) .427 Betts .610 .407 JD .644 .387 Beni .490 .367 Pearce .458 .354 Holt .434 .348 Bogey .553 .332 JBJ .437 .331 Moreland .450 .307 Devers .464 vs LHPs .471 Betts .736 .433 Pearce .585 .402 Bogey .407 .395 Holt .323 .386 JD .580 ,305 Moreland .379 .301 Beni .393 .272 Devers .347 .260 JBJ .303 First, I'm not expecting these same numbers from Devers. Second, Look at the splits for Bogey and Beni: they scream for being flipped in the line-up depending on who is pitching. One could argue batting Betts 1st and JD 2nd. They both get on base more athan anyone, but I go with this: vs RHP 1. Beni 2. Betts 3. Bogey 4. JD 5. Devers 6. Moreland/Pearce (Yes, Pearce ve several righties) vs LHPs 1. Bogey 2. Betts 3. Pearce 4. JD 5. Beni 6. Devers
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That is a possibility, or we reset in 2023 or beyond. I'm a cliffdweller, so I do think we reset after 2020 with or without Betts. I prefer with Betts and try to stay somewhat competitive for a couple of years. We'll have to fill 1B and DH from within (Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Casas?) and maybe SS (Chatham or a cheap, all-glove SS). Maybe a starter will emerge from the minors, or we go with Price, ____, ERod, Wright, Johnson/Velazquez/Shawaryn/Groome/Houck....
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I think Wright will be the 6th starter, but certainly Johnson is in the running. With limited funds, I doubt we go for a catcher, especially with pen needs being a higher priority (IMO).
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I'm thinking Hernandez might be our best prospect. I don't want to trade him, but to get something, you have to give something.
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I doubt he gets 6. Without the Yanks or Dodgers in need of a closer, it's hard to think of anyone giving 5 x $17 to $19M per.
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The Marlins might be the only team taking a longer view to a large extent. I'm not saying you are wrong, but one never knows what a certain GM covets. We could also offer closer prospects like Groome or D Hernandez.
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Hard to think Sandy hit over .800 in over 250 PAs not too long ago!' I can't see Swihart's ceiling being that high.
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Any talk of contract costs leveling out has to be discarded at this point in the winter.
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DD or an opposing GM might value Dalbec more than Chavis. We also have Casas way down the line. I could see us trading one with other pieces for a useful and inexpensive pen arm.
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Yes, I know you didn't say it was forever. 2019 is Sale's big contract year. He may try to hide any pain. I'm confident he'll be okay, but I understand homerism might be at play with my opinion.
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Familia gets $30M/3 with the Mets. I thought he might be an option, but these contracts are too much, so far this winter.
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Last trades were what? Buttry & Jerez for Kinsler Beeks for Eovaldi Espinal for Pearce I'm not sure trading Swihart & Chavis for a RP'er is going to be a huge conversation piece, but what else is there to talk about?
