moonslav59

My guess on tomorrow's line-up vs the RHP: 1. Holt RF 2. Beni CF 3. Moreland 1B 4. Bogey SS 5. Pearce LF 6. Nunez 3B 7. Devers DH 8. Kinsler 2B 9. Swihart C

I almost put Thornburg on the bubble. I have no beef with anyone who puts him there. I know I said "at this moment", and Devers hasn't shown anything since coming back, but the kid can hit. He also has shown he can hit in the clutch in big games. 2018 ISO .180 Devers .171 JBJ .128 Nunez .108 Kinsler .102 Holt 2017-2018 ISO .308 JD .236 Betts .200 Moreland .187 Devers .175 HRam .174 Bogey .172 Beni .164 JBJ .152 Nunez .082 Holt

Defense and pitch calling is not all there is to a catcher-pitcher relationship, but yes, it's a heck of a lot more important than offense. The pitcher-catcher combo goes up against 30-40 opponent PAs per game, sometimes more. Our catcher gets up 3-5 times a game on offense.

What largest? Season? .576 Swihart .565 Leon .545 Vaz That's the sample size that shows Swihart should start, or play more, or make the playoff roster over Vaz? I thought it was all about "once he started playing more." 2017-2018 combined is larger than 2018... .660 Vaz .608 Leon .579 Swihart How about career? .672 Swihart .643 Leon .637 Vaz 35 OPS points is worth upending SP'er comfort, success and preferences?

Here's how I see the playoff roster at this moment in time, assuming Sale and Price look healthy upon return: 17 Locks for ALDS SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello RP: Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier C: Leon 1B: Moreland & Pearce 2B: Kinsler SS: Bogaerts 3B: Nunez LF: Beni CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: JD 7 Probable SP/Long Relief: Wright RP: Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg C: Vazquez 2B: Holt 3B: Devers That's 24: 11 Pitchers, 2 Catchers, 2 1B, 2 2B, 1 SS, 2 3B, 3 OF, 1 DH Bubble: 12th Pitcher: Pomeranz, Johnson, Velazquez, Workman, Poyner C/Utility: Swihart Outside chance: Lin I'd choose Swihart over Pom with maybe Workman having the best chance of overtaking both for the 25th slot.

...and K'in hitters....

Another view... From April 1st to July 20th, Swihart only caught 3 times. 99 PAs .513 OPS After starting to catch more often, he's... 89 PAs .719 OPS Since Vaz went on the DL (July 30th)... Here's his chance to prove to the world... 45 PAs .472 One could argue he really began playing more on June 3rd. Ops since then... .632. There are all sorts of sample size we can choose. The best recent sample size I can find is July 6 to now... .746 in 76 PAs (I'm not sure why that date should be chosen.) Is that really a number that screams to play him despite the obvious problems he has with our SP'ers?

...and I'm the cherry-picker.

I never use most recent small sample sizes to place value or future projections om. I do occasionally use a recent sample size to counter someone else's recent or small sample size. I've admitted I think Swihart is a better hitter and has more upside on offense, despite no evidence supporting Swihart, except his last 60-80 PAs, or to be more precise an even shorter tiny sample size back in July that has fuelded this whole debate about him being some offensive god or something. Yes, it's hard to put up good numbers, when you hardly play steady at all. That has nothing to do with this debate. Swihart has played sparingly all year. He's actually barely played more after Vaz's injury than from April 20th to Vaz's injury. Vaz does have bad defensive metrics this year, and he started off awful on offense while playing way more than Swihart. So what? That doesn't make me forget 2017 or his previous 60-70 PAs before getting hurt. That sample size is way, way bigger than any Swihart sample size of doing well. Looking at just the numbers, any numbers, except your cherry-picked numbers based on some apparent big turning point where Swihart went from 27 PAs a month to 35 and suddenly is apparently no used sparingly anymore, whicj is what caused him to apparently start hitting like he always could/would have had he been played a lot all along. The guy was super white hot 38 PAs streak way back in July. He's been at .470 in the 41 PAs since then as he has been "apparently" playing more. If we are talking recent sample sizes, why not look most recent? Why can't I look at Vaz's most recent sample size, before his injury? Why can't I look at all of 2017's numbers? Why can't we compare all 2018 numbers or 2017-2018 combined? I'm supposed to get all gah gah over 38 PAs in July, and if I don't, I'm called a cherry-picker. I haven't even brought up defense or catcher-pitcher relationships, which is clearly the main reason Swihart hardly catches when Leon & Vaz are healthy. Again, I;m in agreement that Swihart is likely to hit better than Vaz going forwards, even though I do not see the data I usually use to support it. I don't want him catching hardly anyone on our rotation pitchers. He could hit .800 and Vaz .600 over 500 PAs, and I'd still take Vaz. (I doubt Swi is 200 better than Vaz.)

Sox added Brandon Phillips as a September call-up.

Can anyone check to see, if we've ever used 10 different pitchers in a 2 game stretch this season? (I ask about 10, because the 2 starters for game 3 & 4 will not be used in game 1 & 2, although we could use the 4th starter and go with Sale in game 4 on 3 days rest).

I think there is such a remote chance of needing 12, the value is negligible. I do think wanting to PH for Vaz or Leon might and will happen. Also, if a game goes into extra innings, we may want to bring in a fresh catcher for defense. I go with ... 3 catchers (one that can play elsewhere) & 11 pitchers.

I'm not sure, if I said it first, but I like our 3-4 starters, and I don't think we'll need to overuse the pen. Even if 1 or 2 of them have to pitch every game or back-to-back, it shouldn't wear them out.

Well, having a day off (or 5) before game 1 should count, since using a pitcher game 1 could mean you use him again in game 2, if he wasn't used prior to game 1. Maybe saying 5 games in 9 days is more accurate: Day Off (5)- game-game-off-game-off-game-off I see that there could be a need for 12 pitchers, but I doubt it.

Give up on Castillo. He's not going to be added to the 40 man roster. I agree about needing only 11 pitchers for 5 games in 12 days.

Nunez has hit well, recently, but I wouldn't count Devers out just yet.

JBJ still has a .722 career OPS despite his horrible start to his career. He's over .700 since the start of 2017. I think it's pretty safe to consider him as at least a .700 OPS with the ability to top .800 from time to time, sometimes even for a full season. He's had more ups and downs than most players, but ending up between .700 and .850 is pretty good, when you can field like he does.

I get that, but being the 5th starter probably means you'll make the 25 man roster or sub for a top 4 starter who might get hurt.

We could PH for Leon and bring in Vaz, and then PH for Vaz late in the game. Besides, Swihart seems to do better with our RP'ers than our starters. The other point is, we don't have anyone else with a compelling reason to be on the playoff roster, unless you think we need 12 pitchers while playing 5 games in 12 days.

I go by cots.

He still has not really had a super strong month this year. He's been more steady than ever for the last 3 months, but I'm hoping he busts out starting in October.

I'm a Swihart supporter. I want him on the playoff roster, something some don't want. I'm also a Vaz and Leon supporter, and I think many are overlooking the fact that he had a couple bad months and was doing very well, before he got hurt. Swihart had a very hot month and has sucked at the plate every other month, including two months with about the same PAs as his hot July month. I do see Swihart as a better hitter and with more offensive upside going forward. I think we should have all 3 on the playoff roster, so we can afford to PH for a catcher or two. We will not need to PH for any other position, except maybe Pearce for Moreland or Moreland for Pearce at 1B.

It probably is, but being a long man works there, too. I do think Wright has a chance to win the 5 slot from Eovaldi/Johnson.

He had almost the same amount of PAs in June and August as July. He starts playing a tiny bit more than before and does well in 1 of those 3 months. I see you as the one cherry-picking. Besides, 35 PAs a month is not a heck of a lot more than 27 PAs a month (May). One could just as easily pick April 22nd as the time he started playing more, and he's at .527 since then. He only had 14 PAs in our first 20 games. He's at .472 in his last 45 PAs. Vaz is at .530 his last 45 PAs. Swi is at .670 his last 70 PAs. Vaz is at .682 in his last 73 PAs. Same cherry-picks for both.

1) I said near .800. 2) He's 93 away from .800 and maybe 80 away from being close to .800. If he goes on one of his patented tears, he might get close. I hope he saves that for October.