moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I said two. I never said a lot of support. You can tell it's getting boring, when these kinds of issues get beat to death. -
I'm hoping for Alabama to win, for maybe the first time ever, just so they won't move down to 3rd and ND would have to play them first round. USC won't be easy in SoCal, but we looked pretty sharp today against a very good Syracuse team. We've had some easy games, but we beat... #4 Michigan #12 Syracuse (who will drop now) #22 N'western (who should move up a little) Va Tech, Stanford and Wake are pretty decent and were ranked at some point this year.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
let's move JD to catcher and maximize our offense. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Well, it's been brought up like 20 times, and someone always agrees with the idea, so there's at least two of them. -
You'll be wishing him luck, then.
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IMO, other options provide better chances of contribution, but I'm fine wil as many minor league deals we can get, as long as they don't retard the growth of legitimate prospects.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think they just want to see the best line-up possible- damn the defense. -
Plus!
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I'm okay with offering him a minor league deal. I just think someone offers him a ML deal with incentives. I'm not sure anyone is dead set against a minor league deal, but counting on him for anything is foolish.
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All it takes is for the patient to wave confidentiality, and that is what appears to have happened, since it is in Eovaldi's interest that GMs know more about his arm (since the news is good).
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My guess is the Sox have a pretty good idea what Eovaldi's arm looks like right now. They could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but if we are going hard for him, like it appears we are, I'm pretty certain they have confidence his arm is fine. Certainly, I worry more about Eovaldi's arm (with 2 TJ surgeries) than say, Porcello's, but I'm trusting DD and his crew on what they see. If we don't get Eovaldi, we'll probably get someone else with a good outlook.
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Yes, they are separate but related. You can't save the tax without cutting the salary, and both end up saving Henry loads of cash the year he cuts $40M in salary and saves $20M in taxes. The added bonus is the taxes he saves over the next 2 years until he reaches the 50% tax rate again in year 3. If cutting $40M in salary for just one year saves about $40M over 3 years, it's a plan that certainly is being seriously considered by Henry at some point around 2021 or 2022.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
A new DH would cost money and prevent money from being spent of pitching, in theory. I'm not sure Chavis or Swihart at DH would outhit Holt/Nunez at 2B. -
I hope we re-sign Eovaldi, but I'm on record as saying I don't go 4 years. Even 3 years bumps into my projected 2021 re-set season. I'm worried about his age and health, but Buch is a train wreck. I don't see a comp.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It was pretty telling that Kinsler kept starting, even when Devers returned and Kinsler slumped. It makes you wonder how much confidence DD has in Holt/Nunez/Pedey/Quiroz/Hernandez/Lin going into 2019. I think DD waits it out, and if needed, he'll get the next Kinsler in July. -
...and a lot depends on how DD and his crew view the projected value of Chavis. For all we know, they may like Dalbec & Ockimey better or the same. They may think none have a good chance. They may think 3 have a good chance. This is what will determine the choice of trading one of them and not our ideas of how good these kids are.
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$40M tax and $40M contract cost in the year you do not re-set. It's still an $80M savings in this scenario where there is never any taxes for going over the $40M line. It would be worse, if the team went over the $40M line, and of course, less if the team doesn't go $40M over every year. Is an $80M savings worth having one season where you spend $40M less than the norm and maybe not be highly competitive? That's the big question. Remember, that one reset year (2021), the team can still spend $210M, and in theory should still be pretty good.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Assuming Holt starts at 2B and Pedey never plays another game, we still have Nunez as our super utility IF'er. Both Holt & Nunez can play OF in a pinch as well as does JD. I'm not worried about our bench with Holt (or Nunez) becoming a starter. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, weaken DH, too! -
If you really equate the two histories, then fine. I don't.
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Yes, and keeping all 4 of our current farm options (Chavis, Ockimey, Travis & Dalbec) makes some sense, but trading one may not matter, if one of the other 3 steps up.
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A 50% tax on $40M is $20M a year. re-setting not only saves the full $60M for the reset year ($40M not spending on contracts + $20M in taxes at 50%) , but it saves $12M the next year and $8M the 2nd year (in taxes) over the limit after the reset. It's about an $80M savings over 3 years.
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Going from a 50% tax to none for one year, then 20%, then 30% is pretty significant. Let's take a three year sample (starting in 2019) without even going over the $40M line: 2019: $246M + $12M tax (30% of $40M)= $258M 2020: $248M + $20M tax (50% of $40M)= $268M 2021: $250M + $20M tax (50% of $40M)= $270M 2022 and 2023 would be similar to 2021 ($270+M x 3= $810M) Now, make 2021 the reset year: 2021: $210M + no tax= $210 2022: $250M + $8M (20% tax)= $258M 2023: $250M + $12M (30% tax)=$262M Total: $730M for these 3 years Maybe $80M might not seem like a lot from our view of Henry's wallet size, but I guess it matters to him. $80M equals signing a player to $27M x 3 years. Now, he loses Pablo and Castillo's contracts before these years arrive, and hopefully, no current big contract player becomes dead weight, but even just staying near the $40M line for many years in a row, without re-setting, can become pretty costly.
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True, but he's gotten better vs righties as he's aged. Pearce actually had more PAs vs RHPs (131) than LHPs (120) last year. OPS Year vs RHPs/LHPs 2018: .828/.959 2017: .767/.730 (249 PAs v R/99 v L) 2016: .795/1.028 (207/95 PAs) 2015: .765/.623 (201/124) career: .743/.852 (1548/908 PAs)
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I don't think he's all that great at 3B, so manybe 1B is his final landing spot, but we're not yet sure Devers sticks at 3B either, so keeping Chavis does make some sense. I guess it comes down to how good we (and more importantly DD) thinks he is and can become. If you think he can be a plus at 3B or 1B in 2020, then find other guys to trade, but Chavis might be our best winter trading chip that wouldn't take away from our big league roster.
