I got us at about $206M counting player benefits, arbs and no free agent signings or re-signing (also no Thornburg/Smith). The threshold is $206M, so we'll have nothing to spend, if we want to reset next year, unless we trade salary.
Details here:
(in Luxury Tax Dollars)
$31.0M Price
$22.0M Martinez
$20.6M Porcello
$18.5M Sandoval
$15.1M Pedroia (corrected)
$15M Sale
$6.5M Moreland
$5.0M Nunez
$4.5M Vazquez
(138M Sub Total)
Arb Estimates
$18M Betts (2 of 3 arbs)
$12M Bogaerts (3/4)
$9M Bradley (3/4)
$6M Rodriguez (2/4)
$4M Holt (3/3)
$2.5M Wright (2/3)
$2.5M Leon (3/4)
$1.5M Barnes (1/3)
$1.0M Hembree (1/3)
$1.0M Swihart (1/4)
($58M Sub Total)
$196M Total for 17 Roster Slots
Bubble/Non Tender Arbs?
$2.5M Thornburg (3/3)
$1.0M C Smith (2/3)
$10.5M twenty-three players on 40 man roster
$14.5M player benefits
$221M Total (Corrected)
2019 CB Tax Threshold: $206M
If we want to straddle the $40M line again, we might have $25M to spend and these major holes to plug:
1. Closer
2. Set Up man
3. Set Up man
4. 2B and/or 3B
5. Possible: C, RP, SP, 4th OF