moonslav59

Nobody here thinks Cody Allen is a better closer than Kimbrel, Ottavino or Familia, including me. If our current budget and future budget are not a concern to Henry, then I admit my whole approach is wrong and to hell with Allen. I do think the budget matters. With that in mind, my first choice is Ottavino with Familia not far behind. Even those choices might be too much for our future budget. If the cost is too high for DD and Henry on getting a top close, then what are our other options? 1) Trade for a closer? (With what?) 2) Look for high upside cheaper options? 3) Maybe sign 2 guys to shorter term, less (financially) risky deals, instead of one? TRy this, assume DD is told not to sign a closer for more than 1 or 2 years, and that means no Kimbrel, Ottavino, A Miller, Britton or Familia, what's your suggestions?

My history has always been about needing larger sample sizes. I don't even think a full season is a large enough sample size to make any definitive judgments. Yes, I do post last 30 days OPS numbers to try and show who is hot and who is not, but I never make judgments based on sample sizes many feel are large enough to do so. Look, I know Allen is a risk. There is a good chance his 2018 numbers are an accurate portrayal of where he is headed. I get it; really, I do. The only reason I mention him is that I think we need to look for short term contracts with high upside. He might take a one year deal. He might end up being the pitcher he was for 5 whole years instead of the one he was just this one year. How am I cherry-picking? I'm not counting his partial rookie season. He's been close to great or very good for 5 straight years before 2018. There is no hidden agenda or sample size manipulation here. Okay, on one stat I used his previous 4 years not 5 as with the other ones. If that's cherry-picking, then I'm guilty as charged.

I don't think sharing the glory diminishes anything. One could think of it this way: the amount Theo's glory is diminished by Douquette, he gains back by helping Ben's glory for 2013, and so on. It remains to be seen what DD leaves the next GM, but that could be a long way off.

It's not about who is smarter. I've mentioned how DD seems to make his best deals mid season or under the radar deals, so that is a reason to argue not to make the deal now. I get that about your point, but we do have other pitchers like Shawaryn that we could trade next July, and hopefully DD can find another starter like Eovaldi. I'm sorry for coming across as condescending, but the idiocy comment was worse, IMO.

Funny that extending your logic is idiocy.

So, why sign Eovaldi? We should have just waited for July and traded Shawaryn, Lakins and Velzquez for 3 Eovaldi's.

So, a deadline chip is better than an offseason chip?

He reminds me of Beeks.

Yes, and we used 11, although Beeks and Cuevas got only 1. It's interesting how this year we had 8 starters with over 8 starts, and one wasn't Wright. Look at our other ring years: 2004: Only 5 starters with more than 3 starts! 2007: Only 6 starters over 7 starts. 2013: Only 6 starters over 7 starts

I'm fine with several minor league deals, just not broken Clay pigeons.

Allen may even take a 1 year deal to try and reset his value. I'm not so hung up on most recent year numbers. They do matter, but he was pretty good for a while. Here are some numbers: 6 straight seasons with 10.7K/9 or better. His 4.4 BB/9 was a full walk over his next worst season (and better than Kimbrel's in 2018.) His 1.36 WHIP was horrible, but it was under 1.17 in the previous 4 seasons. His ERA has been under 2.99 in 5 of his last 6 seasons. He looks like a good bounce back gamble. Also, I only want Allen, if we also sign another solid RP'er. It's my get 2 instead of 1 option/plan B.

I'd do it. How about subbing Lakins for Shawaryn?

I think he has value. Gotta give to get. He's out of options, as is Swihart. He might do better with a change of scenery. I thought of giving Velazquez or Johnson instead of Shawaryn.

Sign Ottavino Trade: Hembree, Swihart & Shawaryn For: Kirby Yates

I mentioned Allen, because he'll be much cheaper than Kimbrel. I never meant to imply he's nearly as good. I also said Allen and Kelly as compared to just one like Familia or Ottavino.

There was a doubt? Even if we didn't sign NA, we'd be division faves.

Last winter, many felt we need more starter depth, and as it turned out, we did, when we went out and got Eovaldi. Now, we don't have Pom but have Eovaldi. I think we give Wright, Johnson and Velazquez a look (maybe Shawaryn, if he's doing well in AAA), and if they don'y work, DD goes looking again. Maybe he finds the next Eovaldi for peanuts. Right now, we need to focus attention on the pen. The rest can wait to mid season.

If you add Pearce and Moreland, our 1B= 1.7. Having 8 positions over 1.7 shows nice balance.

Steamer WAR Projections: BOS 7.2 Betts 4.3 Bogey 3.8 JD Martinez 3.6 Beni 2.7 JBJ 2.5 Devers 2.1 Pedey 1.1 Pearce 1.1 Vazquez 0.6 Moreland 0.6 Holt 0.4 Nunez 0.3 leon 0.1 Swihart HOU 5.3 Bregman 4.8 Correa 4.6 Altuve 4.3 Springer 1.6 Reddick 1.4 Chirinos 1.2 T White 0.8 Gurriel 0.8 Stassi 0.7 Tucker 0.6 T Kemp NYY 4.8 Judge 3.7 Stanton 3.5 Sanchez 3.4 Hicks 2.5 Andujar 2.3 Torres 1.6 Gardner 1.5 Gregorius 1.5 Voit CLE 6.7 Lindor 5.5 Ramirez 2.3 Diaz 1.6 Martin 1.4 Encarnacion 1.1 Kipnis 1.0 Alonso CLE: Only team with 2 over 5.0 HOU: Only team with 4 over 4.0 BOS, HOU & NYY all have 4 guys over 3.0 BOS: Only team with 7 over 2.0 Steamer SP'ers BOS 6.6 Sale 3.1 Price 2.7 Eovaldi 2.6 Porcello 1.9 ERod HOU 5.1 Verlander 4.5 G Cole 2.2 J James 1.1 Peacock NYY 4.5 Severino 4.0 Paxton (3.3 Happ? 2.6 Tanaka) 1.4 CC Sab 0.6 Gray CLE 4.8 Kluber 4.5 Carrasco 4.0 Bauer 2.6 Clevinger 2.2 Bieber Cleveland will likely trade a pitcher, but they are the only team with 3 guys over 4.0 and 5 guys over 2.0. (We have 5 over 1.9 and are the only other AL team with 4 guys over 2.0.)

Steamer SP'ers BOS 6.6 Sale 3.1 Price 2.7 Eovaldi 2.6 Porcello 1.9 ERod HOU 5.1 Verlander 4.5 G Cole 2.2 J James 1.1 Peacock NYY 4.5 Severino 4.0 Paxton (3.3 Happ? 2.6 Tanaka) 1.4 CC Sab 0.6 Gray CLE 4.8 Kluber 4.5 Carrasco 4.0 Bauer 2.6 Clevinger 2.2 Bieber Cleveland will likely trade a pitcher, but they are the only team with 3 guys over 4.0 and 5 guys over 2.0. (We have 5 over 1.9 and are the only other AL team with 4 guys over 2.0.)

I think these are better than our 2018 pre-season projections.

So, we are about $5M away from the $40M penatly tax line. We need at least one more solid RP'er and maybe some cash for summer acquisitions. Looks like we are going over the max line in 2019. No biggie.

Johnson yes, he could probably put up somewhere between a 4.2 and 4.7 ERA over 170+ innings right now, and that's good enough to be on a lot of teams' rotations. Yes, he "could" put up numbers like these, and if he did, yes, he would be good enough to make some teams' rotations, but you have to remember, those teams have pitchers similar to Johnson (and Velazquez) who they feel "could" give them a 4.70 ERA over 170 IP. Johnson has the potential to do even better than 4.20, but so do many SP'ers who won't put up 4.70 or better next year. BTW, I like Wright as our 6th starter, until he proves otherwise.

We will likely experience some injuries. Hopefully, none will be major or to key players, but we do have an opportunity to get more out of these players who were not with us all last year, either due to injury, trade or being in the minors: Pedroia (played 3 games) Devers (played 121 games) Pearce (played just 50 games with the Sox) Vazquez (played 80 games) Moreland (played 124 games) Betts, JD, Beni, JBJ and Bogey all played less than 150 games Eovaldi (Only with us for 2 months and 11 starts) Sale (Only started 5 games after July 28th) ERod (missed significant time- had just 23 starts) Braiser (didn't join us until after 3 months of the season went by) Wright (only started 4 games) Poyner (just 22 IP) Thornburg (just 24 IP) Walden, Scott, Workman and others missed some time. There's a lot of reasons we could be better next year, assuming we replace Kimbrel & Kelly in kind. Here's what we stand to lose: PA- Player - OPS 195 HRam .708 143 Kinsler .604 27 Phillips .520 IP- Player -ERA 74 Pomeranz 6.08 66 Joe Kelly 4.39 62 Kimbrel 2.74 14 CSmith 3.77

LOL! Thanks for being an eagle eye.