moonslav59

I think our only hopes are... Chavis (if you count him) at 1B or 2B. Lin, Marco H, Brian Johnson and Wright are no longer a prospects, but 1-2 may help. Dalbec at 3B/1B, but I'm not sure we can count on him. Chatham at 2B is a stretch. DHernandez and Lakins are not showing progress. Shawaryn is a guess. Feltman is sucking it up. Maybe Gorkys Hernandez, Ockimey, Houck, Duran or Poyner?

I got distracted, sorry.

Let's look at the 16 wins our pen has and see how many were blown saves turned into wins due to the Sox scoring after the blown save: Game 6 v OAK: Eovaldi leaves after 5 down 3-0. The pen locks 'em down for 4 IP (0 ERs). We win 6-3. The pen did much better than the SP'er. Game 11 v AZ: Velazquez starts and goes just 3 IP (o ERs). The pen locks 'em down for 6 IP (0 ERs). We win 1-0 and the pen did better than the SP'er. Game 13 v TOR: Eovaldi lets up 5 ERs in 5 IP losing 5-3. The pen lets up 1 ER in 4 IP, and win 7-6. The pen does much better than the SP'er. Game 20 v TBR: ERod lets up 4 runs in 5.1 IP and the pen locks 'em down for 3.2 IP (0ERS). Pen does better. Game 21 v TBR: Porcello leaves after 5.2 allowing 2 runs and a 5-2lead. The pen lets the Rays tie the game and we end up winning 6-5. SP'er does much better. Game 22 v TBR: Price goes 5 IP (2 ERs) and leaves down 2-1. The pen allows 1 ER (BS by Barnes in the 8th) in 6 IP and we win in the 11th. Pen does better despite blowing the save for Workman's win. Game 29 v OAK: ERod goes 4.2 IP allowing 4 ERs and the pen locks 'em down for 4.1 IP (0 ERs). Pen does much better. Game 31 v OAK (Pen game): Velazquez lets up 1 run in 2 IP. The pen holds them to 0 ER for 6 IP before Thornburg lets up 2 in the 9th in a 7-3 win. Pen does better. Game 35 v CWS: Porcello leaves after 6 tied 2-2. The pen locks'em down as we win 9-2. Pen did better. Game 37 v BAL (pen game): Velazquez goes 3 IP (2 ER), but the pen goes 6 IP (3 ER) in an 8-5 win. Pen = SP. Game 38 v BAL: Sale leaves after 8 IP tied 1-1. The pen locks 'em down for 4 IP and we win 2-1 in 12. Pen does slightly better (the 22 K/0 BB game). Game 43 v COL: ERod allows 5 ER in 6+ IP and leaves with a lead. Barnes BS by allowing ERod's runner to score, but the pen goes 4 IP with 0 ERs as we win in 10. Pen better than SP. Game 46 v HOU: Sale leaves after 5.1 (3 ERs) tied 3-3. The pen lock 'em down for 3 IP (o ERs) and we win 4-3. Game 49 v TOR: Porcello leaves ahead 2-1 after 6 IP. Our pen blows a save twice but we win in 13 six to five. Pen does worse by allowing 4 ERs in 7 IP, but it was not horrible numbers. Game 62 v KCR: Weber leaves after just 1.1 IP (2 ERs) and the pen does better by allowing 3 runs in 7.2 IP) as we win 7-5.

Yes- just 3 in the 9th (see in red). Here's a closer look at our pen. OPS Against Pen .718 SP'rs .738 ERA Pen 4.12 SP'ers 4.56 W-L Pen 16-8 SP'ers 18-25 So, 8 losses and 10 blown saves. 14 saves & 35 Holds. Inherited runners scoring 21/77 (27%). Take away Johnson's 2/3, Poyner's 1/1 and Brasier's 3/5 and the rest have allowed just 15 of 68 runners to score (22%). Let's look at ONLY the 8 losses involving the pen. Game 10 v AZ: Price leaves after 6 IP tied 4-4. The pen lets up 1 run (in the 9th) by Brewer (L). The pen actually did better than Price but got the loss. Not a blown save but lost in the 9th. Game 19 v NYY:Eovaldi leaves after 6 ahead 3-1. Workman (L) and Brasier let up 4 runs in the 7th, and we lose 5-3. Lost in 7th inning. Game 23 vs DET: Sale leaves after 5 tied 2-2. Hembree lets in a run in the 6th, we tie it again, and Brewer (L) lets up 3 runs in the 7th to get the loss. Game 32 v CWS: Price leaves the game after 6 tied 3-3. We take the lead in the 7th, but Brasier (L) blows the save in the 9th by letting up 3 runs. Game 43 v COL. Sale leaves after 7 leading 3-2. Workman blows the save in the 8th by letting up 2 runs. We then tie the game, but Brasier (L) loses it in the 11th by letting up a run. Not a blown save in 9th. Game 51 v HOU: Priceleaves in the first inning. Lakins and Velazquez let up 3 runs, but we enter the bottom of the 9th tied 3-3. Barnes (L) lets up a run for the loss. Not a blown save but a 9th inning loss by the pen. Game 55 v CLE (The game from hell.): Price pitches 6 shut out innings and we go 9th up 5-2. Brasier (BS) and Lakins(L) let up 5 runs in the loss. Game 66 vs TEX: Price leaves after 7 with a 3-1 lead. Barnes (BS) gives up 2 in the 9th and Brasier (L) loses it in the 11th.

Santana is 26 and has 2.5 years of peak prime under control. Beni has 3.5 years.

It was surprising, but it sure looks like a great deal for us, after just 2+ months.

I agree, but not for 2020 and beyond. I'm also not sure about our playoff chances without addressing the 5th starter slot, if Eovladi is moved to closer.

Encarnacion will be owed $7M at the deadline, and harmony's offer included $5M. Santana K's a lot, but his numbers are better than Beni's. The one less year of team control is the one thing I see making this a bad deal. One more "bad part," We likely cannot afford EE's $20M 2020 option.He has a $5M buyout. We might have to trade him this winter, if we are looking to reset the tax or keep Betts and stay under the max line.

It's hard to judge suggested deals or to make them. There's too many moving parts, of which the two most important parts are probably: 1) How much does the opposing GM value our player/prospects offered? 2) How much does DD value the players offered and the player he's trying to get? These judgments may be wildly different from our impressions and perspectives, and there's more to it that just these two factors. There's money and budget/tax concerns. There's future consideration, such as years of team control. There's health and age-based projections. Wil Smith would be a great get, but I'm not sure we have the pieces SF would want, and even if we do, is DD prepared to further empty the farm to get him?

.925 x 3 years with GG defense is probably worth $150M by itself. That may leave $150M for the final 7 years (assuming $300M/10). I'd say he's worth $21.5M for his final 7 years. (BTW, it's not like he'll be 42 in year 10.)

I already mentioned him on another thread, but tell me who you'd offer for him. (Make it realistic.)

He can use the rest during the AS break.

Are you forgetting the very healthy Bogey, Devers, Beni, Barnes, Hembree and mostly healthy Vaz?

I'd do it, despite Santana's high K rate. We could then trade Moreland and/or Pearce (with cash) to lessen our budget enough to get a RP'er.

Any ideas on what to do at this point? Who is available and is a fit, trade-wise, out there?

I can see the 3 D's traded this summer: Dalbec, DHern and Duran. That could net us a solid RP'er and maybe a 5th starter, afterall, look what we gave up for Eovaldi and A Reed.

Well, I added Beni and Santana and took away Strickland from your offer.

I had high hopes Barnes could be a good closer, and I've not totally given up on the idea, but he shouldn't be our closer, right now. Let's not bash the guy for it. He's been a great set-up man for a while. Yes, great! His important numbers have improved almost every year, especially his K rate. K Rate: 8.0 8.2 9.6 10.7 14.0 16.1 this year! WHIP 1.651 1.395 1.220 1.265 1.139 ERA+ 80 111 118 120 125 He's a keeper-- just not as our closer... yet.

True, but EE is having a monster year. I agree, I don't think Seattle will get much more than my offer for EE, this summer. Only the Asros, among top contenders, really need a 1Bman.

I actually think this might be a starting point offer. Santana K's so damn much, but he has some great numbers over the last 3 years. Santana in 3 yrs: .274/.354/.480/.834 (650 PA avg: .274 28 91) Beni: .278/.358/.441/.799 (per 650: .278 18 82) Losing a year of control is probably not evened up by adding Stricland, who I don't see as an answer to our closer needs. We're okay with set-up men. We need a closer. How about Beni, Pearce (for salary balance only), DHernandez, Houck & Duran for EE & Santana & a little cash to keep us under the max line?

EE's $20M contract will keep 25 teams from even calling the M's. There is going to be a ton of good players on the trading block this summer. I may certainly be undervaluing his stock, but I'm pretty sure you are overvaluing it. Look at what Jay Bruce got in return.

I'm not sure lack of confidence is a major issue with this team.I'm thinking maybe they believed in themselves too much and thought things would be easy this year. They worked hard to win as much as they did last year. I'm not sure they are in the same mindset this year. If it is overconfidence, then how many losses do we need before they realize it's not going to be easy and wake the sleeping dragon?

After Beni hit his 2-run job, I was thinking, "Okay, here we go!" Then, the bats went silent... again. Missed opportunities... again. Pen issues... again. We have to break this cycle and quick. I'm not sure there is any easy solution, except to wait it out and hope these guys start playing like themselves instead of some impersonators.

I do think Moreland is a fit for the Astros, but they won't part with a good pen arm, even if we throw in a prospect.

It's going to be a buyers market this summer with so many sellers finding out they are sellers very early. You're probably right, but it comes down to how much the Seattle GM values DHern & Duran. (Pearce is just a salary dump addition that maybe Seattle can flip for a prospect.)