moonslav59

No, not adding is adding.

Are any of these guys possible RP'er trade targets? K-BB% 30.0 Oliver Perez 29.6 Corey Knebel 29.2 Kirby Yates 26.9 Jose Leclerc 26.7 Will Smith 26.7 Jose Castillo (26.3 Kimbrel) 26,2 Juan Nicasio 24.7 Richard Rodriguez (24.6 Ottavino FA) (24.5 Barnes) 23.6 Jace Fry

Yes, and closers, if they do well, get paid more than set-up men and 6th starters. That's a nice incentive. I don't see Johnson, Velazquez or Wright being asked to close, but any of our current RP'ers would probably jump at the chance to be named the closer or to just have a chance to win it: Thornburg Brasier Barnes Hembree (doubtful he can improve enough to win the role and do well in it) If we add a quality pitcher to this mix and leave some budget space for the summer, in case nobody shows they can close, we should be fine. Or, we end up using Eovaldi as a closer for the playoffs.

There's a higher tax and another drop of 10 slots for the next year's draft. That's a couple things. The 2nd and third years at $10M is what really might be the biggest problem. We will be faced with many decisions concerning the budget, especially if we choose to reset after 2019 or 2020. $10M might not seem like much, but when we are scrambling to scrounge dollars to keep as many of our young stars, $10M might make as big difference. The Pearce contract is over after 2019, so he has no affect on the choices after 2019 and 2020. Yes, his cost in 2019 might end up making us go over the $40M line, if we sign someone like Ottavino, but if that is the case, then my guess is the $40M line was not a big issue to begin with. To me, it's not just about the tax and draft penalties for 2019, it's about 2020 and 2021, too.

Even Ottavino puts us over the $40M line, which doesn't mean we won't sign him. To me, it will be more about the years he gets. Ottavino might end up being the best we can get through free agency for a somewhat limited cost, but free agency is not the only way to get solid RP'ers. I doubt we look to trade Moreland or Nunez to free up the space for Ottavino, but that might be one way to stay under the line.

DD might have looked at the current closer market and how many are available through free agency and seen there will be a surplus avfter all the major openings are filled. The price may drop on whoever is leftover, and DD will swoop in at a bargain rate. I don't see many big spending teams in need of a closer. Someone might be "left out." If that doesn't materialize, DD will have a plan B or C, which would likely be a trade of Chavis or Dalbec plus another prospect or Swihart.

You don't see any harm from the budget angle?

Well said. I wouldn't be surprised, if the guy DD brings in is not a big name or experienced "closer." It might be just a very good pitcher to add to the current mix of pitchers vying for the closer role. We may roll the dice like this and save some money for a summer deal.

It's addition by not adding.

I totally agree, but we did not trade for Uehara to be our closer. We thought we had an established closer in Hanrahan and also Andrew Bailey. My point about trading for someone who might not be an established closer, but who might fit the bill is not something easy to do, and we could guess wrong, but it might be our best chance- assuming we can't go way over the $40M line or tie up big money in a contract over 1 to 2 years.

Depends what our future (and current) budget plans are. We obviously are not resetting this winter, so any one year deals are fine, unless the $40M line is set. I'm think we try to stay near the $40M line, like this year, and if tghat's the case, we won't spend big on a closer, and trading for one or doing without one seem like the most likely choices.

Lucroy signs for a little more than Leon will get ($3.35M/1).

Probably not someone a lot of people here want or think is good enough or proven enough. I have no names off the top of my head. We may get someone with little closer experience, but with a high K rate and lots of upside. We may get someone who is experienced but not with a great record. Then, we keep some flex money to trade for a closer mid season, if the one(s) we try don't work out.

I certainly want Bogey back, but he's not in my top 3 to keep (2019-2020 FAs to be).

I would bet we get a closer via trade.

I'm positive DD is not done, but it might not be through a "signing." It remains to be seen if the $40M line is a hard cap for DD or not for 2019, but my guess is, he's been directed to try and stay under or not go over by much. If my numbers are right, and we'll have about $5M to spend and still be under the line, I don't see a big signing in the works, unless we dump some salary. I also think, DD will want some flex money to spend mid season. It's what he's done very well at for several years, now. I could see us trading for a solid RP'er without adding any to the budget. That would leave us $5M for summer deals. If we are able to trade Nunez or Moreland, maybe we could sign a RP'er for $6-8M, have a little left for the summer and also trade for a decent RP'er.

I know this thread is intended for 2019 only, but the future budget choices, especially if a reset is in the plans after 2019 or 2020, affect the choices we make now. Here's one view of the situation, if we choose to reset after 2019: Start by subtracting Porcello, JD (opts out), Bogaerts, Sale, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg (some may be added back, if we stay under). That leaves this as the 2020 base to work from: Luxury Dollars in millions 31 Price ~26 Betts (last of 3 arbs) 17 Eovaldi 13.8 Pedroia ~13 JBJ (last of 4 arbs) ~9 ERod (3 of 4 arbs) ~6 Barnes (2 of 3) ~5 Wright (3 of 3) 4.5 Vazquez ~4.2 Beni (1st of 3) ~3.5 Leon (4 of 4) ~3.5 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2 Workman 3 of 3) ~1.5 Swihart (2 of 4) $141M for 14 players $15M benefits $8M 11 players at min MLB wage $3M 15 players on 40 man roster in minors $167M TOTAL $208M Tax threshold for 2020 That leaves $40M to spend and stay under to reset. We could bring some of our players back but certainly not close to everyone. We could sign a bunch of low to mid range free agents and look to try and contend to a small extent, or look to go large right away in 2021 by keeping Betts, JBJ and others. Here is a rough estimate on what our departing players might get in 2020 (per year) $30M Sale $24M JD $24M Bogey $18M Porcello $4M Nunez, Moreland, Pearce, Holt We may be able to keep JD or Bogey and Porcello or a pitcher at $14-16M or so, but there would be nothing left over for the rest of the roster. We'd have 8-9 guys at min wage on the 25 man roster. It's hard to contend when you have 9 replacement level players.

I should have asked Santa for this!

I thought maybe winning a ring might hasten the reset year, but it's hard to choose to rapidly dismantle such a great team. One big plus about resetting after 2019 is that we could probably pay Betts after 2020 and not be in the max tax rate territory.

I have thought we'd look to reset after 2020, but more and more, I'm thinking it might be after 2019.

The big difference to me, and I liked both signings, was this... 37 Pedroia's age on last year of deal 30 Porcello's age on his last year. Porcello's deal was ideal. Only 4 years and the ages were all in prime (27, 28, 29 & 30).

WAR What is it good for. Absolutely everything!

We could add a prospect or Swihart. We might see a lot of Kin, if we trade Holt. I'm not sure...

I get your points and don't disagree. I'm not saying we'll get anything for Moreland, but I do have to chuckle when I hear nobody wants Moreland, yet I'm a schmuck for suggesting we might try to trade him to free up budget space to get a better closer. I think it was pretty clear the Sox like Nunez more than Holt. As great as Holt did, Nunez, hobble and all, got more PAs. I agree, Holt would bring more return, but my idea was not about getting a RP'er by trading Moreland or Nunez, it was about freeing up budget space without having to trade Porcello, JBJ or someone more valuable than the two I mentioned. I do think the idea of trading Holt plus maybe Chavis might get us a cheap RP'er, but that is another method of getting what we need. There are a few options out there besides just plain signing a big FA and going way over the $40M mark. Yours is one way.

I have Holt penciled in at 2B starter next year, but Nunez is a close call there. They seemed to like Nunez at 3B more than Holt, so he looks to be the one we more likely keep when added to your point about Holt bringing the best return. My idea of trading Nunez (or Moreland) was geared towards creating budget space. Trading Holt does not help there much.