moonslav59

To me, a crap shoot is like flipping a coin. Surely, better teams win more often than worse ones, even in 5 or 7 game series. Yes, baseball is more random than other sports, but it is not a 50-50 crap shoot. If it was, the worse half teams making the playoffs would win it all more often than 30% of the time.

You don't think the difference between 55.7% and 53.2% is a crapshoot? 1) I'm looking at more than just the #1 vs # 8 or #10 team. 2) I do not think those numbers are accurate over the last 15 years. 3) 55.7% is not a crap shoot- 50% is. As far as a study since 2003, I don't think there would be that much difference. Several studies have been done since 1995 when the wildcards began. I can't see 8 years making any difference. The difference between 1995 and 2003 or 2004 is massive. Look at how the richer teams just exploded their spending while the lower and middle teams barely increased their spending. The better teams are much better than the fringe teams over the last 15 years. BTW, I did a study of the winners since 2003, and the numbers do not support your claims. It's on one of the more recent pages.

I'm just glad we said good bye to Kimbrel.

We can use a lot of things, but yes, 2B is not near the top of the list. I'm not really worried about back-up catcher, in terms of cost in money or trade. SP & RP are clearly at the top along with an OF'er to replace JBJ. 2B, 1B and even more pitching could be useful.

Basically just about every defensive CF'er we said would be available this winter.

Mets Lagares was not given his option. Nats decline option on Adams.

I thought so.

Nobody would trade for him before the choice is made, unless there was a deal in place, and they'd need permission to talk.

Ockimey+ cheap platoon pard>>> $6.5M x 2 years of Mitch spending nearly half his time on the bench or DL. The money saved might help us sign a real 2Bman or RP'er.

At least you admit it's there's no light shining on your position.

5th might be a little generous. Here's a list I found: Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 7.4 WAR) Stephen Strasburg (31, 5.7) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8) Zack Wheeler (30, 4.7) Jake Odorizzi (30, 4.3) José Quintana (31, 3.3) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout) Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.2) Homer Bailey (34, 2.9) Michael Pineda (30, 2.7) Yu Darvish (33, 2.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5) Cole Hamels (36, 2.5) Adam Wainwright (38, 2.2) Tanner Roark (33, 2.0) Wade Miley (33, 2.0) Brett Anderson (32, 2.0) Iván Nova (33, 2.0) Martín Pérez (29, 1.9) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout) Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8) Jason Vargas (37, 1.8) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout) Rick Porcello (31, 1.8) Julio Teheran (29, 1.6) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout) Jordan Lyles (29, 1.6) Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4) Jake Arrieta (34, 1.1) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option Rich Hill (40, 0.9) Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8) Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout) Matt Moore (31, 0.5) Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1) Tyson Ross (33, 0.0) Félix Hernández (34, -0.1) Jhoulys Chacín (32, -0.1) Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1) Odrisamer Despaigne (33, -0.1) Michael Wacha (28, -0.2) Alex Wood (29, -0.2) Edinson Vólquez (36, -0.2) Marco Estrada (36, -0.2) Shelby Miller (29, -0.2) Clayton Richard (36, -0.2) Drew Smyly (29, -0.3) Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.3) Matt Harvey (31, -0.3) Héctor Noesi (33, -0.3) Ervin Santana (37, -0.4) Ross Detwiler (34, -0.6) Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8) Derek Holland (33, -1.0) Edwin Jackson (36, -1.1)

Nobody expected Porcello to win the Cy Young a couple years back, so I guess anything can happen, but saying "Cy Young upside" might be a little too hyperbolic.

If it were this close, the worst team would have won way more than they have. Plus, the whole system has changed over the last few years. The playoffs have more teams and money can buy better teams. I'd like to see a study since 2003, when team budget disparities widened greatly. Even if the number is still over 55%, I don't call that a crapshoot, but it is closer than I expected.

Unless, unless, unless... he agrees to come back for way less than the arb projection.

We have plenty of roster space for second tier players. I count 18-22 third tier guys on the projected 40 man, right now.

We missed him a lot, when he was here and on the DL or being platooned.

Looks about right. I would not pay that much. To me, maybe $16M/2 is too much.

If he opts out, can we offer a QO?

Ockimey's numbers vs RHPs: OPS vs RHPs 2019 .898 AAA(21 HRs in 287 ABs but also 106 Ks) 2018 .783 AAA (5 Hrs & 28 Ks in 70 ABs) .968 AA (13 Hrs & 72 Ks in 205 ABs) His BA might be low, but his OBP vs RHPs has been good to great. .409 in 2017 A+, .390 in 2017 AA, .417 in 2018 AA, .313 in AAA 2018 and .379 this year in AAA.

That's how I see it. The 1B/DH types are going very cheap, these days, and since we'll need both, if JD bolts, I can see that being the place we reduce salary. I could be wrong, but I'm guessing we stay under but near the luxury tax limit.

I can certainly see that point of view, but does anyone think for one moment, had we not signed Sale, and he'd gone on to win the Cy Young last year then bolted for free agency, nobody here would be crying about us not signing him? Take away the injury, and his numbers dictated a much higher salary (and more years), so we did get him on a reduced salary. Let's give the deal time. I remember people screaming about the Porcello extension, then apologizing, then screaming again, then...

I guess what he's saying is that even if Bush is the best coach in the world, and who of us know who really is, we should not ever hire him, because he was within the broken system.

I doubt Porcello takes $6M, and if he did, it would be $6M x 4-5 years. My guess is he gets $27-36M for 3 years or $32-44M for 4 years.

It looks better without the 2019 Porcello, Thornburg, Wright, Cashner & Chacin in there.

Well, we "got" 4 rings. Plus, we got new blood in Bloom. I'm not sure blowing everything up was needed.