moonslav59

Updated after 82 games. The vast majority of the time our pen did a good to great job. They have lost 9 games due to blown saves.

Updated tally after 82 games: Game 81: W 6-3 CWS: SP 6 IP 2 ER (1 unearned)/RP 3 IP 0 ER (RP gets win/alt scoring SP+2/RP+2) Game 82: L 8-7 CWS: SP 6 IP 5 ER/ RP 3 IP 3 ER (RP gets the loss slightly/ ALT: SP-2/RP-2) Starters 16-22 (-6) Relievers 27-15 (+12) The alternative scoring: SP +20 RP +46

Here's another way to look at the first half or 2019: (Fangraphs) First 41 games: (22-19) 6th ranked in offense (4th Runs, OPS & wRC+) 7th ranked Pitching (4.3 fWAR) 7th ERA-/ 6th WHIP - 8th SP'er (2.9 fWAR)8th ERA-/ 9th WHIP -T7th RP'er (1.4 WAR) 5th ERA-/ 4th WHIP Last 41 games: (22-19) 1st ranked in pitching (3rd ERA-/6th WHIP) -2nd SP (T6th ERA-/6th WHIP) -3rd RP (T3 ERA-/9th WHIP) 4th ranked in offense (4th Runs, 3rd OPS & wRC+) Whole season (fangraphs will not break down by dates): 3rd ranked in defense (3rd UZR/150 & 7th in DRS)

Again, I agree, but the best team, on paper, doesn't always win.

I agree on the Dodgers. The Yanks sure look like the team to beat, but so did we this time last year, but by playoff time, there were doubters left and right.

^^ Love this! ^^

2018 WAR vs 2019 WAR x 2 2018 Batter 2019 10.4 Betts 4.6 (-5.8) 5.9 JDM 3.2 (-2.7) 4.9 Bogey 7.4 (+2.5) 4.4 Beni 3.2 (-1.2) 2.8 JBJ 1.0 (-1.8) 1.4 Holt 1.0 (-0.4) 1.2 Pearce -1.8 (-3.0) 1.0 Devers 5.6 (+4.6) 0.6 Moreland 0.8 (+0.2) 0.2 Leon 0.0 (-0.2) 0.1 Vazquez 4.0 (+3.0) -0.3 Nunez -1.4 (-1.1) By net gain/loss: +4.6 Devers +3.0 Vaz +2.5 Bogey +0.2 Moreland -0.2 Leon -0.4 Holt -1.1 Nunez -1.2 Beni -1.8 JBJ -2.7 JDM -3.0 Pearce -5.8 Betts 2018 Pitcher 2019 6.2 Sale 6.0 Sale (-0.2) 2.4 Price 4.4 (+2.0) 2.4 Porcello 3.0 (+0.6) 2.1 ERod 2.4 ERod (+0.3) 1.5 Eovaldi -0.6 (-2.1) 1.2 Barnes 1.8 (+0.6) 0.7 Brasier 0.4 (-0.3) 0.4 Velazquez 0.6 (+0.2) 0.3 Johnson 0.0 (-0.3) 0.2 Walden 1.6 (+1.4) 0.2 Poyner -0.2 (-0.4) 0.2 Wright 0.0 (-0.2) 0.1 Hembree 0.6 (+0.5) 0.0 Workman 1.6 (+1.6) -0.3 Thornburg -0.2 (-0.1) Net gains/losses +2.0 Price +1.6 Workman +1.4 Walden +0.6 Porcello +0.6 Barnes +0.5 Hembree +0.3 ERod +0.1 Thornburg -0.2 Sale -0.2 Wright -0.3 Brasier -0.3 Johnson -0.4 Poyner -2.1 Eovaldi 1.3 Kimbrel/Taylor +0.8 0.6 Kelly/ Brewer +0.6 0.1 CSmith/DHern +0.2 -0.4 Pom/ Weber +0.2 -0.4 Scott/ Lakins 0.0 -0.1 Beeks/ Shawaryn -0.2 -0.2 Cuevas/ J Smith -0.2 -0.2 Haley/ E Ramirez -0.2

What if he struggles for the next few weeks?

Who do we give for Renfroe & Greene? Who else do we add to get Scherzer?

A lot can change by then. Of course, if we keep playing like this, nobody will have much confidence going into the playoffs. I'm sure Dodger fans liked their chances, last year, going in.

We could also talk about Joe Kelly.

No, but my hope is that maybe we trade Pearce & Thornburg while paying $1.7 out of the $2.7M owed at the deadline. Maybe we throw in Shawaryn to sweeten the deal, The extra $1M helps us get a better pitcher (or two). It's not about the other team wanting or needing Pearce or Thornburg. They may DFA them after the trade, but they get Shawaryn and can afford $1M.

We may be over-rating Casas, but you may be over-rating Greene. The guy has sucked every year but 2017 and 2019. Even his 2017 season has a 1.214 WHIP fueled mostly by a 4.5 BB/9 rate. Career, he is a 4.57 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His BB/9 has been an okay 2.7 the last year and a half, but it's not like this guy is a sure bet solid RP'er.

Here's the link to Part I https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19013-A-Realistic-View-at-2019-Part-I We're half way through the season and on our way to London for 2 big games with the Yanks sandwiched between 3 "days off" (travel days). No doubt, the first half has been a disappointment. We started very slow, showed signs of snapping out of it here and there, but then seemed to stumble back into out struggles again and again. Blame has been thrown around by us posters, and certainly much of the criticism is well-warranted, but we can probably all agree that no one area is our clear weakness. One can even argue that our weaknesses are not really a weakness, since they may still be at or above league average or mean. Here is where each position ranks among the 15 AL teams at the halfway point: WAR (fangraphs) Area: 3rd Positional Players 14.1 (5th in runs scored/ 4th in OPS) 3rd Pitching 11.2 (6th in ERA-/ 7th in WHIP/ 1st in K/9) 5th Defense (3rd in UZR/150/ 6th in DRS) Position: 2nd SS 3.7 (1st OPS) 3rd SP 8.2 (7th ERA-/ 7th WHIP) 3rd C 2.0(8th OPS) 4th 3B 2.8 (1st OPS) 5th RP 3.0 (3rd ERA-/ 5th WHIP) 7th RF 2.4 (2nd OPS) 7th LF 1.3 (7th OPS) 9th DH 0.2 (13th OPS) 10th CF 0.5 (8th OPS) 11th 1B 0.1 (10th OPS) 12th 2B 0.4 (8th OPS) While RF and DH looklike major disappointments and declines from 2018, 3B and C have seen great improvement. Here is my own individual report card based on what I perceived their 2019 expectations were- not on just the numbers. A+ Bogaerts, Devers A Vazquez, Price, Walden (due to very low expectations) A- Chavis, Holt, Workman B+ Hembree (until injury) B Taylor B- Porcello C+ JBJ, Leon C Brewer, Smith, Weber C- Beni, JD, Moreland (injury) D+ ERod, Velazquez, Eovaldi (injury) D Betts, Sale, Barnes D- Brasier, Johnson, Thornburg (an F but my expectations were low) F Pearce, Nunez Going forward, I think we need to make 2 trades. We need 2 pitchers. I'd like to see us get a closer and a decent set-up man, but a starter and closer would be fine with me. I think our offense and defense will have to work through their issues and improve. I think we win the home field for the WC game and have a very good shot at winning it all. We won't be the favorites going into the playoffs, but we've won it all before without being faves. C- Cora D+ DD Let's keep this thread about the Sox. Let's keep it real. Let's keep it non-personal. Go Sox!

Depends on at least 2 things we may not have a clue about: 1) Does the Detroit GM covet any of the guys on this list? 2) Does anyone else offer better?

Ideally, I'd like to see if someone would take some salary dumps off our hands, even if we pay 40-80% of their remaining contracts, so we can have more money to spend on someone else's "better" salary dump. That's the best way to get a decent pitcher without giving up top prospects. Possible salary dumps from our side: (Luxury Tax Dollars) 13.8 Pedroia (Maybe 100% untradeable) 6.5 Moreland or 6.25 Pearce 5.0 Nunez (Close to untradeable, even if we pay 80-90% of his deal) 3.6 Holt (I'd avoid trading him.) 2.5 Leon (I would not tarde him.) 1.8 Thornburg

I'd give any one of Dalbec, Duran or Chatham plus two from Johnson, Lakins or Shawaryn. 3 for 1 (I'd push the out of options Johnson as a way to free up the roster squeeze.)

Now, I realize Eovaldi was somewhat of a lucky acquisition, last year, but he only cost us Beeks. Yes, I realize Beeks is doing very well, but realistically, what was his trade stock value last July? My thought is D Hernandez or Duran should get us something better. We should not need to part with Casas to get a couple solid RP'ers. We may not even need to part with Casas, DHern or Mata. Dalbec should get us a solid arm. Groome or Houck another. Maybe we trade Chatham now that Bogey is locked up, although Chatham might be a future 2B low-cost, option.

I didn't know Greens had 1.5 years. In thinking more about Smith, I'd say no, if Casas is needed.

Maybe the "rest" Moreland has gotten with his most recent injury can help him stay strong through the end of this season. Both he and Pearce were getting hot before their injuries. Assuming Moreland and Pearce return, I think Chavis plays 2B near FT, gets some rest vs tough pitchers and plays 1B a few times- maybe when JD is in the OF, he DH's. I don't see a problem getting him PAs as long as he keeps hitting. I kinda hate sitting Holt almost totally, as he seems to be out only timely hitter this year.

Me? No. Maybe as a headliner for Wil Smith, but even then, I'd think long and hard about emptying out the farm further.

I still think there will be more sellers than buyers, but some teams may trade for 2 RP'ers (like the Rays & Sox might). I can't see why the price will be higher than we paid for Addison Reed and Eovaldi over the last 2 years, especially if we trade for a salary dump type pitcher or two. We'll see.

We'd probably go with a mix of JD (who DH's? Pearce when he returns?) Holt, Pearce and maybe Nunez. Not pretty.

I was going to do one as we approach the trade deadline, but a trade is needed soon, so I'll get on it. Batter up!

It's also important to keep a team in a games for as long as 17 innings. Also, if a game is tied when the pen takes over, there may end up being no save recorded, but a win is as good as a save in that situation. Saves and BS's do not capture those situations. Also, if a starter lets up 7 runs in 2 innings, and the pen goes 6 innings with no ERs as the offense gives us a 1 run lead, I don't hold it against the pen, if it lets up 2 runs in the 9th for a BS and a loss. The starter went 2 IP with 7 ER and the pen went 7 IP with 2 ER, but all we hear about is how the pen sucks because of their BS amount. Our pen has serious issues. I am not in denial, but they have done an excellent job way more than they have done poorly. We have 8 losses due to blown saves, but we have over 20 wins due to good to excellent pen work. Saves vs BS misses a lot.