moonslav59

Think about what happened between 2018 and 2019. Anything can happen.

I noticed it yesterday. I guess the site has to make money somehow.

There may not be a high likelihood of everyone being healthy at once, but it is possible. My guess is we stay just under the cap line until July (No JBJ) and decide what to do then.

These big sluggers haven't been getting paid much, including Moose, himself.

Not always, but your point is well taken. I'd offer Betts a #320M/10 year contract. That's no Lester low ball offer. That would not cause any hard feelings. If he declines, like he likely would, I'd look for a good trade. If I found one, I'd tell him we want him back, but we are doing what we think is best for the club, and we'll be better in 2021, so look for another great offer next year. If he takes it the wrong way, so be it. If he gets a better offer in 2021, we'd probably have lost him anyways- trade or not. It's a tough call. If I really felt like we'd have a much better chance at signing him by not trading him, I might swing to the no trade side. I'm like right on the fence, right now. The other thing that makes me second guess keeping him is that a $320M or more - 10 year deal is a big risk. I'd do it, but it's not a slam dunk good deal. I doubt we get him for less than $320M/10, unless he gets hurt or sucks in 2020. I'm torn. I'm literally 50-50. If we don't trade Betts, I'd try hard to trade Price and/or Eovaldi. If I can't move one, I'd look to deal JD before he opts out next winter. All this talk about how it would be a slap in the face to trade him, will it be a slap when he opts out after 2020? He will, unless he gets hurt badly or sucks in 2020. Making no trades of big contracts will delay and reduce the quality of our rebuild.

We've reached consensus!

I think it was revealed the Cubs out bid us by a significant amount. I'm not even sure he'd have come back had we matched it or topped it by $1M.

I think the Sox will wait until July. I want Betts here, but I'm on the fence about trading him now for something useful, signing some decent small cost FAs and then go for broke in 2021 by signing Betts back or some other big name player. I'm more geared towards 2021 and beyond over 2020. I don't think our chances are that good for 2020. I realize the lost revenue coupled with trading Betts may make trading him this winter not happen, but I'm 50-50 on trading Betts this winter. I'm not sure we are exactly on the same page. I would certainly look into trading Price and Eovaldi. I'd also look into trading JD. To me, JBJ is as good as gone, sadly. I don't want the rebuild to be hampered or delayed, but I'd also like to see us be good in 2020. I'm not sure trying to have it both ways accomplishes much. I doubt we win in 2020, and keeping everybody may make rebuilding harder and longer.

I look at the numbers and think this... I doubt Moose gets $10M x 2. I think he gets $8M/1 or $14M/2. I think Ozuna's $15M x 3 looks like the best in terms of quality vs price. (If we trade JD or Betts, maybe he might be an option. If we lose JBJ and can trade Price or Eovaldi, maybe he can be squeezed in, somehow.) Sleeper pick: Lindblom Most likely signings by the Sox: Strop & Calhoun

I never said we had to trade Betts. Never. I mentioned trading Betts getting something good in return and then having his salary to spend for 2020, and that the FAs signed plus the return in trade might help us beyond 2020. It would be a deal for the future not 2020, but all would not be lost on 2020, if Bloom spends the $28M wisely. We reset in 2020, and then we look better in 2021 both financially and roster wise, since we can still bring Betts back either way. You went off on me like I was nuts, and I wasn't even saying we should trade Betts, just that it is an option that would likely improve our longer term rebuild. What are we arguing about? (BTW, my eyesight is bad, and I did not see the minus sign on the $18M "cap space". My bad- sorry! That site is not far off. We won't trade Cashner. We'll just not give him the $8M club option.)

"Budget cap space" implies being under the line by $18M. Here's cots: They don't list arb costs, but here is MLBTR's estimates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html It shows us with about $56.8M to spend on arbs Red Sox (12) Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM Sandy Leon – $2.8MM Chris Owings – $3.0MM GONE Mookie Betts – $27.7MM Brandon Workman – $3.4MM Steven Wright – $1.5MM GONE Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM Matt Barnes – $3.0MM Heath Hembree – $1.6MM Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM Marco Hernandez – $700K Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM GONE Counting the guys who are "GONE", the arbs total about $64M If we shed JBJ, we get under the line by a little bit. There is no room to sign anybody and reset, unless we trade some salary. We can gain a little by axing Hembree & Leon and maybe sign a cheap FA, but that's it. Your site: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/ It has JD at $23.75M for luxury tax. It's $22M because the AVV is $22M. They are also counting Cashner, and his $8M option will not be taken. That's just 2 mistakes I found while looking quickly. Either way, take off Cashner and JBJ and they'd have us near the $208M line, just as I said.

Believe what you want. There is a $15M player benefit cost that counts against the luxury budget. I used cots- the most respected source out there and the arb projections from MLBTR, who have been very accurate over the years. With nobody re-signed and no FAs singed, we are about $10M over. Not bringing JBJ back puts us about even. We can let Leon and Hembree go to as a bit more, but my numbers are very close to accurate. The tax limit next year is $208M, so that site is messed up. cots has us $57M under the line, but they do not count arbs. Your claim of not signing Porcello would open $24M to spend is wrong on so many levels, I'm getting close to putting you on ignore. (I've only done that once on this site, so consider yourself special.)

For SP'ers I like (in order): ERA- (or ERA+) OPS against WHIP K/BB fWAR Far behind are xFIP FIP ERA W-L For RP'ers: OPS against WHIP K/BB fWAR ERA- For everyday players: OPS+ or wRC+ WAR OPS (I use this most often since it is easier to understand) OBP SLG UZR/150 Far behind are... BA SG or SB% RBI Runs OPS Late & Close or high leverage DRS (These aren't set in stone, but it's roughly how I see it.)

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it. Betts could actually be worth $60-70M a year for 2-3 years. $320M/10 could be a steal for us... or not.

Not re-signing Porcello and Cashner are already part of the equation. Not bringing anyone back leaves us about $10M over the line. Trading Betts allows us to spend up to $28M and still reset, which is the goal. We can spend about $28M and still reset. If they are all one year deals, we'll have $28M to spend in 2021, too, plus more from newly departing FAs and/or maybe JD opting out. There is no indication Henry wants to stay under the tax line every year. I'm thinking he wants to reset and then would be okay going over the first line and maybe the second only when needed. Your "simpler plan" shows you are clueless about where we are budget wise.

I'm coll and relaxws, until they put JD in the OF, then I'm on pins and needles.

Non tendering JBJ or trading him gets us to the line. Trading Betts is one plan. Trading JD is another. Trading both would be a total rebuild, but even that plan has merits. Trading Price and/or Eovaldi won't save us much as we'd have to take salary back or give cash. Let's take the trade Betts plan. Yes, if we trade him, we'd be $28M under the tax line, assuming we don't get anyone higher than min salary in return. Then in theory, we can spend $28M a year on FAs to make us respectable in 2020, but I'd only sign players that look to help us beyond 2020. Some would be one year deals to allow us enough space that when JD opts out after 2020, we'll have enough space to sign Betts. (We should be able to go back over the line after the 2020 reset., even if JD does not opt out.) I don't think it's that complicated to understand. Yes, the fams paying for season tickets probably prefer to see Betts over Ozyuna and Smith or the other 4 I suggested below, but we'd be better positioned for 2021 without a doubt in my mind.

I'm not saying we will trade him. The reasons you mention here are real enough to maybe cause us to at least wait until July, if ever. I'm a huge Betts fan. I want to see him stay in Boston forever. I think my position on offering him over $300M/10 might be the only poster here that has gone that high. I'm not sure I want to trade him, unless I see what we can get for him. I know that might be impossible until and unless he actually gets traded or some team admits to an actual offer made (rare). My point was about what we MIGHT want to do to make the rebuild quicker and better. Srely, trading Betts for something and then signing him in 2021 is better for teh rebuild than not doing it. Yes, it lessens our chances in 2020 and hurts our viewership for one year, but it might be worth it. IMO, our 2020 chances are slim, so I'm leaning towards making any deal that helps us in 2021 and beyond. I'd also be fine with waiting until July to see if we have a chance to win a ring in 2020. If we are out of it, then make some deals.

Name one professional baseball analyst that says that, and are the factoring the FAs we can sign for $28M as part of the deal? You asked me to name names, now the ball is in your court. For $28M, according to professional analyst MLTR, we could sign: Ozuna & Will Smith or Teheran, Will Harris & , Daniel Hudson & Kole Calhoun

You'd think, if nobody wants Betts at $28M, why would we?

I guess 2 months of Miller is worth more than 6+ months of Betts according to Elk.

I've been JBJ's biggest fan and supporter. I've defended him for years. I'd love to have him back, and I hope we can get him back, if we non tender him, but I would not pay $10-11M for his last arb salary. I'll miss him, if he goes. I'll hope we get a great defensive CF'er to replaced him. I'll wish him well where ever he goes.

lol...

I'm not saying I'd demand a ML ready package for Betts. I was just answering how we could still put a decent team on the field without Betts by getting ML players in return and using the money saved to fill in the 4-5 gaps we have right now. I'd be fine with getting a couple top prospects 1-2 years away that appear "can't miss".

So, to use your logic, nobody wants Betts, or all we'll get is crap for a guy worth over $70M by one estimator.