moonslav59

We could have the same team- maybe healthier, but without just JBJ. We'd have enough money to spend on a cheap defensive only CF'er and a pen arm.

Someday, we may learn the specifics. I wonder, if that was when the contract issue arose.

I'm wrong too often to gloat when I'm right. I do think JBJ or JD will be traded. That's my next call. I was gald to hear the reset does not mean Betts is traded, and they actually said theyw ere going to try and extend him this winter.

MLBTR reports we are going to reset the tax, next year. Bye-bye Rick. Bye-bye JBJ or maybe JD.

Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I disagree. 1) We probably will not be in the race, so we won't be thinking one guy might have made a difference. 2) I won't miss 12 out of 32 starts allowing 5 or more runs and a 5.50 ERA. 3) I will miss the IP'd and the strain he takes off the pen.

Here's an interesting view of our ring years: 2003: 29 Pedro 33 Lowe 33 Wake 30 Burkett 14 Fossom 23 others (10 Suppan 13 others) 2004: 33 Pedro 32 Schilling 33 Lowe 30 Wake 29 Arroyo 5 others 2005: 11 Schilling 30 Wells 32 Clement 33 Wake 32 Arroyo 35 others (16 Wade Miller) 2006: 33 Beckett 31 Schilling 8 Wells 12 Clement 23 Wake 63 others (15 Lester, 10 Snyder) 2007: 30 Beckett 24 Schilling 32 Dice-K 31 Wake 23 Tavarez 22 others (11 Lester) 2008: 27 Beckett 29 Dice-K 30 Wake 33 Lester 15 Buchholz 28 others (9 Masterson, 8 Byrd, 7 Colon) 2009: 32 Beckett 32 Lester 12 Dice-K 21 Wake 16 Buchholz 49 others (24 Penny, 8 Smoltz, 6 Masterson, 6 Byrd) 2010: 21 Beckett 32 Lester 33 Lackey 25 Dice-K 28 Buchholz 23 others (19 Wake) 2011: 30 Beckett 30 Lester 28 Lackey 7 Dice-K 14 Buchholz 50 others (23 Wake, 12 A Miller, 8 Bedard) 2012: 21 Beckett 33 Lester 0 Lackey 29 Buchholz 10 Bard 69 others (29 Doubront, 18 Cook, 11 Dice-K, 9 Morales) 2013: 33 Lester 29 Lackey 16 Buchholz 29 Dempster 27 Doubront 28 others (10 Peavy, 7 Webster, 6 Aceves) 2014: (traded 4/5ths of rotation) 21 Lester 21 Lackey 20 Peavy 28 Buchholz 10 Doubront 68 others (18 DLR, 15 Workman, 11 Webster, 10 Kell7, 7 Ranaudo) 2015: 28 Porcello 32 Miley 18 Buchholz 25 Kelly 9 Masterson 59 others (21 ERod, 11 Owens, 9 Wright, 4 Hill) 2016: 35 Price 33 Porcello 21 Buchholz 20 ERod 6 Kelly 53 others (24 Wright, 13 Pom) 2017: 32 Sale 11 Price 33 Porcello 32 Pomeranz 24 ERod 41 others (15 Fister, 5 Johnson, 5 Wright) 2018: 27 Sale 30 Price 33 Porcello 11 Pomeranz 23 ERod 38 others (13 Johnson, 11 Eovaldi, 8 Velazquez) 2019: 25 Sale 22 Price 32 Porcello 33 ERod 11 Eovaldi 36 others (so far)- 8 Velazquez, 7 Johnson, 6 Cashner Fewest "others": 5 2004 22 2007 23 2003 23 2010 28 2013 28 2008 35 2005 36+ 2019 38 2018 41 2017 49 2009 50 2011 53 2016 59 2015 63 2014 63 2006 69 2012

I don't disagree, but I see it this way: If we want to win it all in 2020, assuming we go over the tax line, we need better than a 4/5. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are all big health questions. We'd need a 2/3, at worst plus pen arms. If we plan on rebuilding and not going over the tax line, Porcello makes little sense.

Fact is, DD has drafted less pitching with his first picks (since 2007): Theo's last 5 years 2007:1st pick LHP (Hagadone) 4th (Huntzinger) 5th (Province) 2008: 1st RHP (Kelly) 2nd (B Price) 4th (Fife) 5th (Weiland) 2009: 2nd (Wilson)6th (Kline) 2010: 3rd (Ranaudo) 4th (Workman) 2011: 1st (Barnes) 3rd (Owens) Ben 2012: 2nd (Johnson) 3rd (Light) 4th (Callahan) 5th (Maddox) 6th (Buttrey) (next 3 RHPs) 2013: 1st (T Ball) 2nd (Stanki) 4th (M Smith) 5th (Littrell) 2014: 2nd (Kopech) 4th (Cosart) 5th (McAvoy) 2015: 5th (Lakins) 6th (B Taylor) 7th (L Allen) Not a bad pitcher draft for low picks. DD 2016: 1st (Groome) 3rd (Anderson) 5th (Shawaryn) 6th (Nogosek) 2017: 1st (Houck) 4th (Thompson) 5th (Scherff) 6th (Schellenger) 2018: 3rd (Feltman) 5th (T Ward) 2019: 3rd (Zeferjahn) 4th (Song) Since 2007, we've drafted pitchers more than non pitchers (only Theo's last 4 years). All 4 year sample sizes: Top 2 Picks: DD 2 out of 8 Ben 4 out of 8 Theo 4 out of 8 Total: 10 out of 24 (6 out of last 16) Top 6 Picks: DD 12 out of 24 Ben 14 out of 24 Theo 10 out of 24 Total: 36 out of 72 (26 out of last 48)

1) I doubt he takes a significant discount to stay here. 2) We don't need a 4.75 to 5.50 SP'er, despite all the IP. 3) He's past prime, now. 4) Even at a discounted rate, his contract would likely put us over the tax limit by itself (assuming we keep everyone else).

I felt the same way about 2017. Seemed like too many players had down years all at the same time. Well, with 2017 and 2019 both seeming "fluky," maybe it was 2018 that was the outlier. Our offense did very well in 2018 and 2019, so it's mostly about the pitching. ERod, Workman, Taylor and Walden did better than expected. The other 19 used did worse.

I don't think 35 starts from outside your top 5 starters is all that out of the norm. Plus, we porbably could have started Eovaldi a few more games, and we may have even started Price and Sale more had we been in the playoff hunt. I just don't see injuries as a major excuse for us doing so much worse than last year. Starting Pitchers all did worse, except ERod. Pen blew too many saves. Offense bunched too many runs when not needed. Defense, despite Devers doing much better, did worse overall. Base-running looked more like 2017 not 2018. GM, managing and coaching made more mistakes.

Personally, I think we need to shake up our whole philosophy on pitching- from drafting, developing, coaching, evaluating, attending to their physical needs and more. That probably means bringing in an outsider with a known history of success with pitchers.

It is a mystery, because I'm sure they looked over his medical records very well before offering him the extension. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but Sale still started 25 games, this year- 13 with 0-2 runs allowed and 16 with 0-3 allowed.

The Sale extension was not the reason for the collapse or DD's firing.

They were fine with the plan, but the window was supposed to last through 2019 and possibly 2020 or even 2021. We were still the top spending team. We still had a pretty young team on the field, and the oldest players we had were role players like Moreland & Pearce. Yes, we lost 33 starts from Eovaldi, Price and Sale combined, but that's not really horrible, when you consider the other 2 in the rotation never missed a start. I think Henry was shocked by the suddenness of the "cliff," and the whole argument for trading away the future for a 5-7 year window collapsed when the window turned out to be 3 years- glorious as they were.

Not the pitching "staff"- maybe the coaching staff, yes.

I've said all along, even a 200 or 300 point advantage from one guy will not make up for a 1.00 rise in team ERA. As it turned out, the OPS advantage was near negligible, and the ERA spike was way over 1.50. CERA by Starter: Porcello 4.44 Leon 6.37 Vaz 13.50 Swi Sale 3.79 Leon 6.68 Vaz (An argument could be made that Leon should have caught every game by Sale & Porcello.) Price: 4.15 Vaz (4.27 career) 5.59 Leon (2.96 career) ERod 3.58 Vaz (3.99 career) 4.34 Leon (4.05 career) 10.39 Swi (4.44 career)

The blown saves sucked, and I get the argument that you can't say the pen did okay with so many blown saves, but I'm going to say it anyway. The pen did okay. They kept us in games that the starters put us in deep holes.They went extra innings often. They provided many "pen games," many of which ended up with 4, 5 or less runs allowed. Eearlier, this year, I went back and looked at every game- one by one- to determine who was mostly at fault for our losses and who was mostly the reason we won each game- the starter or the pen.It wasn't even close. The pen won us way more games and lost way fewer games than the starters. The record since that study does not appear to have favored the starters. Our pen has been pretty good the last 6-8 weeks. The SP'ing in by far the major reason for the negative turn-around.

I has a feeling Cora wanted Leon all along. I never understood the reasoning for Swihart other than to hope to build trade value had he got off to an .850 start.

Not "exactly" or he'd still be the Sox GM.

I wouldn't have gone as far as he did, but he got us a ring, so I fine with what he did. However, I won't sugar coat what we gave up to get that ring- not that you are. Judging by hindsight, the Pom-Espi trade did not help us win a ring- maybe one division title, but not a ring. The Travis-Dubon for Thornburg trade was bad. Justifiable, at the time, but bad in hindsight. The Buttrey for Kinsler deal was probably not needed to get us a ring, but we did need 2B defense. I wish we had Margot and Allen back, but no doubt Kimbrel was a big piece of our 3 division wins and the 2018 ring, despite his poor playoff performance. In hindsight, I wish we could have kept Allen and traded Espi, Travis and Dubon for something better and longer controlled than Pom & Thornburg, but overall, DD made justifiable trades that won us a ring. That's the bottom line up to 2018. Now, for 2019, and more importantly, the extended future, we have to deal with the consequences of those trades.

Some thoughts on the state of our farm: There were a number of factors that have led to where we are now, but let's not forget the fact that the farm still gave us Devers, Beni, Taylor, Walden & Chavis fairly recently. We have a few promising prospects, now, but other than Dalebec and D Hernandez, not many good ones are close to ML ready. Here are a few of the "factors" as I see them: 1) Obviously, the number one factor was trading away so many of our highly ranked prospects by DD. Here is a list of those traded and their highest ranking ever on soxprospects.com: 1 Moncada 1 Swihart 3 Margot 3 Espinoza 5 Kopech 5 Beeks 5 Marrero 6 Guerra 7 Basabe #1 9 Dubon 12 T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12 Rijo 13 Allen 17 Buttrey 18 Basabe #2 18 Callahan 20 Asuage 20 Gerson 2) International Free Agent Signings have been horrible, and this used to be one of our greatest strengths (Devers, Bogey, DHern, Moncada, Margot, Iggy, Montas...). The best we've got to show since DD became the GM is Velazquez and Antoni Flores. The system has changed since Theo and Ben's days- making it harder for winning and big spending teams to have large bonus pools, but we've done very poorly, here. (See #6.) 3) Drafting low due to winning so much for 3 straight seasons: 2017 drafted 24th (Houck) 2018 drafted 26th (Casas) 2019 drafted 43rd (Cannon)* see #3 4) Draft penalty for going over the max line dropped us to #43 in 2019 draft. 5) Drafting poorly with the picks we had. The 2016 draft was the only one we picked higher than #24, and we did okay, assuming Groome amounts to something, and we also got Chatham (51), Dalbec (118) and Shawaryn (148), but it does not appear to be a strong draft. 2017: Houck (24), Brannen (63) and nobody else on the radar was not good. 2018 was decent: Casas (26) is a top 90 prospect. We also got Feltman (100), Ward (160)and Duran (220). Not bad, but not really eye opening either. 2019 is too soon to know, but there are some promising players. 6) Daniel Flores passed away. He was given twice the next highest signing bonus ($3.1M) as the next guy since 2015. Sad. 7) Banned from international free agent signings for 2016-2017 period. Thanks, Ben. Put all these together, and we have a pretty bad farm system, right now. That doesn't mean we have nothing, but many of the best we have are 2-4 years away- like Casas, Mata, Jimenez, Lugo & A Flores. Here's my current list of the top dozen Sox prospects: 1) Casas 2) Mata 3) Ward 4) Jimenez 5) Groome 6) Dalbec 7) Houck 8) Chatham 9) N Song 10) M Lugo 11) Duran 12) A Flores

He ruined the farm doing what he thought he had to do to insure a ring. We can debate whether he needed to go as far as he did and still get the ring, but IMO, there is no doubt the farm was ruined- justifiably or not. We had a top 5-8 farm. Now we have a bottom 5-8 farm. I'm fine with bottom 5, since we got the ring, but it's time to rebuild the farm not pretend it's fine, and DD is not the guy to do that. I just hope the next guy makes the rebuild as quickly as possible, and we can get back to top contention status, soon.

It ain't happening. Henry wouldn't spend a penny more at the deadline, and now you're talking tens upon tens of millions to be spent this winter.