moonslav59

Barnes Trends: K/9: 8.2> 9.6> 10.7> 14.0> 15.3 K/BB: 2.6> 2.3> 3.0> 3.1> 2.8 WHIP: 1.65> 1.40> 1.22> 1.27> 1.37 ERA+: 80> 11> 118> 121> 126 ERA-: 131> 92> 85> 82> 79 FIP-: 132> 89> 77> 65> 74 xFIP: 4.39> 4.05> 3.27> 2.83> 2.95

Trading Barnes when his stock is lower is not my idea of a good move. He was solid for 2-3 years, until we asked him to do more this year. Keep him as an every other day 8th inning pitcher and he'll be worth his salary in 2020- and then some. Trading him at the deadline might make more sense, assuming he's doing well, and we are not in the race.

Looking at this group in an overall way, are we about to see addition by subtraction? Almost certainly not back next year: OPS/ERA Player (PAs/IP) .835 Moreland 331 .787 Holt 287 .548 Nunez 174 .503 Pearce 99 .695 Swihart 29 5.52 Porcello 174 5.60 Cashner 53 7.71 Thornburg 19 Maybe not back next year: .745 JBJ 558 .549 Leon 187 .348 Gorkys 50 .544 Owings 49

Shows just how weak our extended depth was.

Final word on Cashner: YUCK!

What are we all on board with now. Who is "we?" You and your split personality? 1. JDM needs to go. Maybe. 2.JBJ needs to be upgraded only at the plate the man is superman with a glove ...everyone wanted this to work . No- downgraded to equal glove- worse O. 3. one last run at Mookie .My offer is 8 years at 34 with additional 25 million in player incentives .You can work player and team options in .Mookie may want every red cent he can get and most do .The deal is more than fair if he hesitates I wouldn't hesitate to move on and trade him in my next breath . 4.Thad Ward ? He's better than Price right now .Promote this guy . $30M x 8 likely gets him at free agency. I'm thinking $320M/10. 5 .Sandy Leon needs to be upgraded terribly . Nope- just a pay cut. 6. The team needs a real pitching Coach not some nice guy lifer bullpen catcher . Agreed. John Farrell? 7 .sale may need to transition to the pen ? Don't laugh he's a China Doll . It's customary to laugh at jokes. 8.We need to cut bait with Brasier ,Barnes Cutting Barnes is downright insanity. The guy improved 4 straight years and still was our 4th best pen arm, this year. Trade him, maybe. Cut him? stpuidity! 9. We need a no nonsense old school spring training ,teaching base running situations and how to bunt . LOL. Bunting won't help one bit. 10 .goodbye Mitch you are a damn good player when healthy but there in is the problem ..never healthy . Even when healthy- not worth $6M these days. 11. Mookie ,Devers ,Xander ,are the core which leads me to 12 .Benny Add Vaz 12.Benny needs to be shopped for pitching . Not a bad idea, but doubtful "all on board." Who plays LF and CF? 13 . Cora is on thin warming ice for 20 . Nope. 14 .Get Di Di Double Nope!

Hembree is pitching today.

More like a goiter!

I'm not convinced on Chavis. He had a very hot start then hit under .700 the rest of the way (over 3 months). His bat would be good for 2B but not 1B. His glove may not be good enough at 2B, but he surprisingly looked okay in limited duty there in 2019. Ward has not even faced AAA batters, yet. He's projected to start 2020 in Portland. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I added Chavis and Marco to your list (plus another position- 2B)

Here are some splits: vs RHPs: .898 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .968 AA 2018 .794 Dalbec AA 2019/ .970 A 2018 .774 Chavis MLB 2019 .757 Lin MLB Career/ .712 AAA 2019/.805 AAA '18 .733 Marco MLB Career/.852 AAA 2019 .564 Travis MLB Career/ .728 AAA 2019 vs LHPs: .904 Dalbec AA 2019/ .881 A 2018 .742 Chavis MLB 2019 .730 Travis MLB Career/.955 AAA 2019 .605 Marco MLB Career/.469 AAA 2019 .535 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .586 AA 2018 .502 Lin MLB Career/.522 AAA 2019/ .826 AAA '18 As long as Ockimey never starts vs LHPs and Travis never starts vs RHPs, we might end up okay at 1B, 2B and DH, next year. Vs RHPs: DH: Ockimey/Chavis 1B: Dalbec/Ockimey 2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin Vs. LHPs: DH: Chavis/Travis 1B: Dalbec 2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin

It's really Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis/Marco filling 3 roles. (Marco is the only one who fills just one role: 2B.) I'd be fine replacing Travis with a cheap FA 1B/DH type or 1B/LF type.

Or, fill the 25th and 26th slots on your roster with 2 pitchers who can go 3-4 IP every 4-5 days. Probably best to be a lefty and a righty. Both could maybe go 3 innings every 5 days and give an inning here and there in between. Could DHern and Houck fill those roles? (Johnson, Velazquez, Wright?)

I'm fine with replacing JBJ with an equal glove and a worse bat as a bridge to the time we can go for a ring, then we may need better offense, or we may not. I'd trade JD, but with the idea that we will do what it takes to keep Betts. If we lose both, we better have a GM that will spend their money wisely and not on the next Pablo, HRam or Eovaldi.

Let's say we trade JBJ for a low cost, decent RP'er. We trade JD + $6M (saving $16M) for a low cost but good SP'er. If my numbers are right, we'd have about $16-20M to spend on a defensive CF'er and a good pen arm and Sp'er depth. No doubt, losing JBJ and JD will hurt our chances at competing in 2020, but depending on who we get back and who we sign, we may be just as good on paper, but we'd be better placed going forward, financially and in terms of players under team control for 2021 and beyond. No JD, JBJ, Wright or Hembree. I'll assume Leon comes back at $1M. Here could be the 2020 roster: SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, ____ (JD trade), DHern RP: ___ (FA), Workman, Barnes, Taylor, ___ (JBJ trade), Walden, ___(FA) C: Vaz & Leon 1B: Dalbec & Travis/Ockimey 2B: Chavis & Marco/Lin/Chatham 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: ____(FA) RF: Betts DH: Chavis/Ockimey

We will have a 26 man roster, next year, so maybe it's not such a big deal anymore.

The hard part is getting 6 innings every start. We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS. If we knew Sale, Price and ERod could go 6 each start, we wouldn't need 6 from the 4-5 slots, but we can't count on 6 from anybody but maybe ERod in 2020.

My guess is he's over-using depressants.

I can see us letting JBJ go, being $1M under the tax line, and if we are in it at the trade deadline, then deciding to go for one more ring and reset after 2020.

2 years in a row and being his 3rd (but not last) arb usually pays out, but if I'm high, then we have more wiggle room than I thought.

100% JBJ is my favorite Sox player, but I think he should be traded.

I could see us trading Betts, if he turns down a big extension offer, but I hope we go hard after him as a FA after 2020 and the reset. I'd rather see us trade JD, who is less likely part of our plans beyond 2020 (opt out is more likely). I know we won't get nearly as much as we would for Betts, and if we end up losing Betts anyway, then we're down 2 big bats and one big glove. However, it's not like we won't use the money from JD and Betts to get several other good players. It's a tough call. I can't see trading Sale, Price or Eovaldi, unless their stock rises with a healthy start to the 2020 season. The Pedey retirement idea is just a dream- a very unlikely one. We're not trading Bogey. Beni might bring back a nice haul, but with JBJ likely gone and no OF prospects in sight, I can't see that happening. (I wouldn't be against trading Beni, if the return haul was good enough, and we saved some money to spend elsewhere.)

Workman made $1.1M this year. I think that is part of the calculation. He just had a good year, but it's his only good year. Being his last arb year does usually add to the cost, so you might be right. Betts slipped a little, this year, so I'm not sure he gets the $28M I projected earlier this year. First arb years, like Beni's, are hard to project. I think that if Hembree is gone, as you project, we can be under the line by $1M to $6M. If the number is $6M, we can sign a very cheap defensive CF'er and pen arm. Assuming almost perfect health, we could have a competitive team next year, but that's hoping for a lot. I'm not expecting ring competitiveness in 2020, but it could still be a fun year to watch. With expectations much lower, sometimes the same season (like 2019 vs 2020) can be more enjoyable to watch.

Cots has us $56M under the line before arbs. Lets assume no JBJ, Wright or Leon and go a little higher on my arb estimates: $$$ 28 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs) 12 ERod (3rd of 4) 9 Beni (1 of 3) 4 Barnes (2 of 3) 4 Workman (3 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) That's $58M and puts us $2M over the line. No Hembree would put us right at the line- worst case.

Not by my calculations. I have us at about $4-6M under, if we lose JBJ's $10M estimated arb cost. (Leon or another catcher at min wage. No Wright.) Tax Dollars (*arb estimate) 31 Price 27* Betts 26 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey 11* ERod 10* JBJ 7* Beni 3* Barnes 4 Vaz 3* Workman 2* Hembree 2* Leon 1* Wright Nobody else over $1M $2M for the rest of the 40 man roster Total $187M without JBJ, Wright & Leon +$15M Player benefits $202M Total $6M to spend on FAs. If my arb numbers are low, maybe we trade Hembree. I also think we may look to trade JD or Eovaldi, but that would radically change the talent level of the team, assuming both are healthy all 2020.