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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Devers never had the K rate Chavis has always had. I'm not sure Sox management sees Chavis as our 2Bman for 2020. I think he may play there some, but he and Dalbec will be our 1Bmen in 2020 with Marco, Chatham and Lin fighting over 2B. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with what Chavis has done, but he is still a huge question mark, and I get the sense some are thinking he is a slam dunk legit ML'er. In today's game, .240 with 25-30 HR players are a dime a dozen. I'm hopeful he gets better, but his last 69 games point to a more somber future.
  2. moonslav59
    Marco has not proven jack. I would not trade Chavis, since we need all our low cost, young players that are ML ready. I'd only make Andrew Cushner type deals for pen help.
  3. moonslav59
    We can out bid anyone, because nobody will overpay by as much as we don't have.
  4. moonslav59
    Agreed. Our 6th hitters have an .857 OPS, this year, which is higher than our 1 and 5 slots. Our 7-9 hitters are better than recent seasons: .700 in 2019 .660 in 2018 .698 in 2017
  5. moonslav59
    Team OPS since June 13: .904 BOS .874 NYY .846 HOU .846 CLE .813 MIN .806 LAD XBHs 181 BOS 156 NYY 153 SFG 151 CLE 149 LAD
  6. moonslav59
    My bet would be that Chavis ends up more like Middlebrooks than Devers. I realize the gap is huge, but with his high K rate all the way through the system and his 69 game sample size vs the 14 to start the season, I am very concerned about his value going forward. I realize I could be wrong. I realize the value of .245 hitters who crank 25+ HRs a season is something many disagree on, but the Rays basically cut a guy who hit .253 with 30 HRs, last year (CJ Cron). Chavis 162 game average (671 PAs): .260 31 107 Chavis minus the first 14 games of 2019: .243 10 42 Projected at 671 PAs: .243 23 96 (100 Ks in 263 ABs or 38%) That high K rate is something very few good to great hitters ever overcome.
  7. moonslav59
    ...and if pitchers start throwing only breaking balls to JD, he will adjust and then murder them.
  8. moonslav59
    Are you concerned that Chavis's numbers are largely driven by just his first 15 games? First 15 games: .333 6 13 (.460 OBP/1.186 OPS) Last 68 games (281 PAs): .246 10 42 (.302 OBP/.702 OPS) I'd trade Chavis in a heartbeat, if we got a better player under team control for several year.
  9. moonslav59
    I disagree. We are not the 29th pen in MLB, and we should be better with Eovaldi and possibly Johnson or a trade pick-up going forward. Yes, we will have to rely on our pen in several games to come, but they have done well or very well way more often than not. Blown saves does not capture all the times this pen has done way better than the SP'er in wins. We will beat teams with our offense. We should beat more teams with our SP'ers (going forward). Our defense seems to be solidifying, despite last night's game. Our pen may be worse than most teams we face going forward, but most teams have one or two areas where they are worse than their opponent. We may only have one. AL Pen Numbers: WAR 6th at 3.1 (ahead of HOU and just 0.1 from TBR) 4th in xFIP at 4.18 (ahead of CLE and 0.03 from TBR) 8th in ERA- at 94 4th in K-BB% at 16.4% (ahead of TBR) 10th in WHIP at 1.42 7th in IP at 406.
  10. moonslav59
    I see what you are saying. It does happen. I will say, I sometimes feel some condescension coming from the non stat-lover posters. I'd like to think nobody intentionally posts in a condescending manner, and it's hard to start every position with "It's my opinion that..." or "I believe that...." Instead, we just state our opinions, and maybe it comes across as a matter of fact. For example, let's say someone says, "Betts is in a terrible slump." I may respond, "His OPS is .850 over the last14 days and .900 over the last 28 days." That may come across as a discussion ender, but I don't intend it to be that way. If someone counters that he's at .600 for the last 8 games or hitting .180 for the past 2 weeks, I'm open to seeing that there is room for both sides to be "right." If someone says 7 of his hits were bloop or soft grounders, I'm all ears. I know numbers don't mean everything and can be deceiving, especially in small sample sizes.
  11. moonslav59
    Our offense could get even better... or not.
  12. moonslav59
    Diaz should cost way more than Dalbec.
  13. moonslav59
    It's a juiced ball.
  14. moonslav59
    We had our chances last night, despite Sale's bad showing. We need to keep the foot on the gas! Go 4-3 or 5-2 vs the Yanks & Rays, then go 5-2 at home vs the Royals and Angels. 9-5 would work well. 10-4 would put us in the favorite's seat for the WC slot and maybe even be in the division race depending on the record head-to-head with NY.
  15. moonslav59
    I agree. I never expect everyone to be interested in stats and metrics, let alone try and understand them. I use them a lot in my discussions, and I'm fine with anyone who does not pay attention to those parts of my posts. I thinkj numbers do add to the depth of a baseball discussion, but I know that is just my opinion that appears to be shared with several other posters and fans.
  16. moonslav59
    I don't think we go over the max line for anybody. I think we trade for a RP'er that costs about what Cashner did, in terms of prospects and salary.
  17. moonslav59
    Well said. The only time I ever think of stats while watching a game is if someone like JBJ goes 3 for 4 with 2 HRs, and I think, "I wonder what his OPS is now?" There are many of us who love the stats, metrics and analytics but can also totally enjoy just watching a game free of deep thoughts on numbers.
  18. moonslav59
    There always seems to be one or two of our starters coming off 1 or more horrific starts. This time, it is Sale, but hopefully we can put it all together by the time the playoffs start. I still think we trade for a decent RP'er. If we do, we may see this for August: SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Porcello, Cashner RP: Eovaldi, Workman, ______, Barnes, Hembree, Walden, Brewer, Taylor (Johnson and Wright are out of options- maybe we can hold them off until September. Other possible Sept call-ups: DHern, Velazquez, Brasier, Lakins, Poyner)
  19. moonslav59
    If this was happening to the Sox, imagine the uproar, here.
  20. moonslav59
    I agree. If not, I doubt he turns into a total bust. As frustrating as he has looked this year, he has had some nice games and nice short runs of dominance. He started May off with a 1.29 ERA in his first 3 games with 41Ks and just 1 BB! Here's a breakdown: First 4 starts: 8.50 ERA (.943 OPS Against) Next 11 starts: 2.24 ERA (.540) Next 4 starts: 7.59 ERA (.974) Next 2 starts: 1.50 ERA (.496) Then, yesterday's start: 5.1 IP 6 ER He's basically been ok to great for 13 starts and horrible for 9. We are 8-14 in his 22 starts.
  21. moonslav59
    The good news: we've gone 14-7 gthe last 21 games, including 5-2 vs the Yanks and Rays. The bad news: we can't seem to finish things off in recent series. We won the first game vs the Dodgers 8-1, then lost the next 2. We lost the 3rd game and the series to BAL. We won the first 2 vs the Rays but lost the third game 3-2. We looked like we might sweep the Yanks and had Sale on the mound but lost it. WE have a day off. 3 at home vs the Rays. 4 at NYY in 3 days. 7 at home vs the Royals and Angels. then a big 3 games at CLE. Now, is the time to keep rolling along like the last 21 games.
  22. moonslav59
    If Sale was having a great year, we'd all be saying what a great extension it was. The Lester example is perfect. Look how much Sox fans roasted Sox management over that one. The deal may still turn out to be worth it. I remember many people thinking Sale should and would get more than Price got. He got less years, less money and structured it so the luxury tax hit would be lower.
  23. moonslav59
    If the Mets trade Noah, it's not about 2020.
  24. moonslav59
    He's so under-rated, it is pathetic. Also, Vaz cannot catch every game. If he did, his offense would suffer. Vaz is having a great year, offensively, but he'd have to hit .500 to make up for this: Sale: w Leon 3.49 (.608 OPSAgainst) w Vaz 6.68 (.956) Career: 2.67 (.573) w Leon and 4.61 (.763) w Vaz Porcello w Leon 4.12 (.703) w Vaz 7.41 (.933) Career: 4.13 (.728) w Leon and 4.87 (.784) w Vaz. It makes total sense to have Vaz catch 3/5 games and maybe a few games with Porcello here and there. It certainly is not "pathetic" to think starting a catcher that almost halves the ERA with Sale. Porcello might be debatable. Price is doing better with Vaz, this year, despite doing much better with Leon before.
  25. moonslav59
    In my opinion, ERA+ and OPS+ are better than just OPS and ERA alone. It's not "gibberish." It may not be perfect, but it does improve on what we had (and used). I trust they do a better job adjusting the number than I could do on my own.
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