moonslav59

Maybe, but the amount of top stars we have traded before they become FAs is very low under Henry's watch. (CC & Beckett and the Lester, Lackey, Peavy sell off is about it.) I can see us trading Betts at the 2020 deadline, and we may even re-sign him the next winter, but I think the odds are against it, unless we are in rebuild mode next year.

I don't think I've seen a post I disagree with more than this one. Your assignment of player motivations and thoughts is total speculation and seems to me, to be way off base. 100% wrong, IMO.

That one post by me did focus on just those over .880, but even if you look at over .800 or over .750 or over .700, we are right there with any other top hitting team. We are more balanced than last year. Our top 9 players by PAs are at .720 or higher. Our #10 guy (Holt) is at .782. Marco & Travis may crack the top 12 or 13 and be over .720. Our #9 guy, JBJ, has been at .886 in his last 63 games and 258 PAs. Compare these numbers to 2018: We had 2 of our top 6 PA guys at .717 or under (JBJ at .717 and Nunez at .677.) Our starting catchers (#10 & 11 in PAs) were between .511 and .540. 2018 (13 guys over 180 PAs): 2 guys over 1.000 0 guys .900 to .999 2 guys .800 to .899 5 guys .700 to .799 (4 under .758) 2 guys .600 to .699 (both under .677) 2 guys .500 to .599 (both under .540) 2019 (13 guys projected to be over 180 PAs): 0 over 1.000 3 at .900 to .999 5 at .800 to .899 3 at .700 to .799 (2 over .773) 1 at .600 to .699 (Travis at .673) 1 at .500 to .599 (Leon at .559) We will likely double the amount of players over .800 (4 to 8) and halve the amount under .699 (4 to 2)

I totally agree, but I might allow Johnson to keep pitching, in hopes he builds trade value. I don't see any AAA guys I think are being held back by Johnson. Maybe go with a 6 man rotation to get someone some starts and to try and lessen the chances Sale or Price get hurt.

Because his defense has declined, and he was supposed to improve in all areas at his age. My guess is, he will end up with a lower OPS this year, but even if he doesn't, he has not met my 2019 expectations.

I think trying to stay highly competitive in 2020 would be a great mistake. It would likely prolong the return to greatness. It would have to include massive spending, because there is no other way to stay near the top next year. We have very few ML ready prospects that promise significant impact. We need to identify which players will still be in top form by the year we set as the year of our return and get rid of the rest, even if it means paying significant parts of their contracts. Assuming we try to compete in 2021: Keepers: Devers Bogaerts Betts (re-sign for 2021 & beyond) ERod (FA in 2022) Beni (FA in 2023) Vazquez (Option for 2022) Chavis Hernandez Travis, Dalbec, DHern, Lin, Walden, Taylor, Chatham, Duran, Ockimey Possible re-sign, if the price is right: Holt Leon May keep due to limited trade value, but look to trade 1, so we can reset the luxury tax for 2021: Price Sale Eovaldi JD Martinez Pedroia Look to trade: Bradley (FA in 2021) Workman (FA in 2021) Barnes (FA in 2022) Hembree (FA in 2022) Wright (FA in 2021) Brasier, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer Do not Re-sign: Porcello Moreland Pearce Cashner 1) Reset the tax in 2020 with the idea that we can spend large for 2021, if the outlook looks right. 2) Keep only players who will have positive value in 2021 or 2022 & beyond. There is no easy way to rebuild the farm. Going over the tax lines every year and continuously having low draft picks and limited international pool money makes it nearly impossible, unless you have a sell off and/or a down year or two with a reset tax budget.

It's not an excuse. They sucked, and yes, it's on DD and the pen. Even guys like Barnes sucked. The rotation sucked and actually lost more games for us than the pen. They also had less to do with our wins than the pen. This isn't an argument made to lessen how much our pen sucked. The pen sucked. S-U-C-K- Sucked! No excuses. They were supposed to suck or be pretty bad, and they sucked.

Dalbec 2 for 4. Ockimey with his 20th HR Owings 3 for 4 (.974 OPS) de la Guerra 2 for 4 (.942 OPS) Houck 2 IP 0 ER (1H 1BB 2K) Reyes 7 IP 1 ER (5H 1BB 3K) Duran & Chatham 0-4 Casas 0-4 (.808 OPS)

To me, the rotation leads the blame game list, especially when factoring in expectations. Sale, Porcello and Eovaldi were huge let downs. Price did okay but his limited IP'd hurt. Only ERod did well. Our rotation depth did poorly but managed a winning record in their combined starts. The pen sucked but never was expected to be very good. The blown saves killed us and failed to make up for some good they did from time to time. The GM, manager and coaches all share the blame. The offense did well, despite the downturns by Betts & JD, but seemed to score too much when not needed while coming up short when needed most. I can't assign any blame to Devers, Bogey, Vaz, ERod, Workman and Chavis.

If we keep spending, spending, spending, we will make it harder and harder to rebuild the farm and reset the tax penalties. We should try to minimize the length of the rebuild to just 1 year (2020). Reset the tax for 2021 with the idea that we can spend again after 2020 (maybe re-sign Betts plus...) Look to dump some salary to reset- anybody not projected to be strong for 2021 and perhaps beyond (Price, Hembree, Barnes...? Sale?) Keep the core of young players (Devers, Bogey, Beni, ERod, Vaz, Chavis and maybe Workman) Draft well & sign some decent international FAs with a better draft slot and increased bonus money to spend. No mistakes in signings and trades. It won't be easy, but trying to spend our way to perpetual competitiveness is a losing strategy- both short and long term.

Kinda-sorta. That team had a nice pen: Papelbon 31 saves 2.94 ERA/0.93 WHIP D Bard 3.33/0.96 Aceves 2.61/1.11 The rotation looked to be very good, but 3 guys flopped: 6.41 Lackey (injured) 5.12 Wake 5.54 A Miller (12 GS'd) Beckett (2.89), Buch (3.48) and Lester (3.47) did well. Top OPS: .957 AGon .953 Papi .928 Ells .861 Pedey .833 Youk

The Good .731 to .939 Devers .883 to .959 Bogaerts .540 to .809 Vazquez n/a to .862 Hernandez n/a to .773 Chavis .774 to .782 Holt 3.27 to 2.08 Workman 3.82 to 4.19 ERod n/a to 3.62 Walden The Bad 1.031 to 913 JD 1.078 to .885 Betts .830 to 826 Beni .758 to .812 Moreland (IL too much) .717 to 720 JBJ .511 to .559 Leon 3.58 to 3.86 Price The Ugly 2.11 to 4.48 Sale 4.28 to 5.74 Porcello 3.65 to 4.01 Barnes 1.60 to 4.46 Brasier 3.33 to 6.66 Eovaldi 3.18 to 5.67 Velazquez

Should I start the "A Realistic View at 2020: Part I," now?

Wait till 2021. We should blow it up and shoot for 2021.

There's enough time to work on trading JBJ. I doubt we trade Betts.

Some more comps to 2018. 2019: 10-15 when scoring 4-5 runs 2018: 33-9 when scoring 4-5 runs 2019/2018: 14-2 when allowing 1-2 runs/ 38-4 in 2018 10-2 when allowing 3 runs/ 22-4 in 2018 20-15 when allowing 4-5 runs/ 22-14 in 2018 10-18 when allowing 6-8 runs/10-21 in 2018

No, I don't, but this is an opinion site.

I think GMs will want him at $10M, and we won't have to pay a cent. I could be wrong, but I think many GMs have wanted JBJ for years. A one year $10M commitment is desirable. I think it is worth the risk. (I see the advantage of non tendering, but if we are looking to do that, we might as well DFA him now.

Nobody else is even close to having 4 guys over .880. We have 4 in the top 25. The Astros have 2. The Twins, Mets & Yanks have 2.

Yes, and he's hitting about the same as 2018. I guess if GMs think his defense has slipped, they may not call this winter, but it seems like every winter GMs ask about him.

The sad part about this season is that Devers and Bogey really came into their own to no avail. We may end up with 4 guys over .900. Devers Bogey JD Betts Vaz and Beni over .800. Sad.

Yes. GMs wanted him at $9M.

We can trade him and sign an all glove CF'er for cheaper.

It's over. Time to think about 2020.

He did have a .371 OBP with Portland, this year, so the .234 BA is tolerable. The guy has 52 HRs in his last 814 ABs, including 26 HRs in 470 PAs in AA. 107 XBHs in those 814 ABs.