moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I said "extended periods of Major League success"- meaning a longer stretch or stretches of success and NOT career stats, and not necessarily better numbers vs smaller or tiny sample sizes by some of the Yankees listed. Since jacko was quoting specific shorter periods of success for Yankee starters, I countered with my point. ERod and Eovaldi both have a longer stretch or stretches of success than many on jacko's list of Yankee hopefuls. I didn't bother bringing up Houck's tiny sample size of success vs Garcia's equally tiny sample size.
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Thanks! It took me close to an hour to assemble an incomplete list I posted a couple days ago. I'd like to see a list that also includes large and long extensions for a truer picture of how often and when we made big financial commitments. Going by just free agent contracts of 3 or more years and adjusting for inflation, here are the years we made the big splash signings: 1991 Matt Young 3 1992 Frank Viola 3 1999 Jose Offerman 4 2001 Manny Ramirez 8 2004 Keith Foulke 4 2005 Edgar Renteria 4, Jason Varitek 4, Matt Clement 3 2007 JD Drew 5, Julio Lugo 4 2008 Mike Lowell 3 2011 Carl Crawford 7 2013 Shane Victorino 3 2015 Pablo Sandoval 5, Hanley Ramirez 4 2016 David Price 7 2018 JD Martinez 5 2019 Nathan Eovaldi 4 As you can see, starting in 1999, we never went more than 3 years without a major signing, and if you count major extensions, those gaps are mostly filled to the point where the records is nearly seemless.
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Well said, and if we add Tanaka or Ororizzi, and the Yanks add squat, we could just be a healthy Sale vs an unhealthy Severino away from having an equal rotation with the Yanks. Lots of ifs for both teams, for sure.
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Even Eovaldi has way more than that, yet jacko has bashed Eovaldi often.
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I clearly stated the BTV values were not meant to show who is better than others.
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A lot of these pitchers do NOT have extended periods of Major League success. There are questions on many of them. You are a Yankee fan, so you are optimistic. You are more optimistic on Severino than Sale. Pitchers like ERod and Eovaldi have shown longer periods of success than many on the list of Yankee starters, and of course they have large question marks next to their name, but you seem much less optimistic about other team's starters. Look, I'm not overly optimistic about our top 3 starters, either, and I'd rather have your top 6 SP'ers than ours, but we both know a lot can go wrong, and both teams can use a big addition or two to the rotation mix. Until we know who those additions are, it's okay to give the edge to the Yanks due to their depth, but other teams will be making additions, too- maybe better ones. What if the Jays sign Bauer & DJ, and the Yanks add Porcello and a lower ranked 2B/SS?
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Here are the BTV values assigned to players on these teams (at the ML level). Keep in mind, these values are based on the player value and contractual obligations... This is not about who is better than who... Yankees 88 Torres SS/2B 63 Judge OF 37 Garcia SP 37 Severino SP 36 Montgomery SP 26 Frazier OF 21 Voit 1B 16 German SP 16 Green RP 15 Urshela 3B 8.2 Higashioka C 7.9 Loaisiga SP 6.1 Tauchman OF 2.8 King SP Blue Jays 105 Bichette SS 93 Guerrero 1B/DH 53 Biggio 2B 32 Jansen C 32 Hernandez OF 26 Gurriel OF/2B 6.5 Tellez 1B 6.1 Thornton SP 5.5 Kay SP 3.2 Romano RP 3.2 Stripling SP 2.9 Borucki RP Red Sox 51 Verdugo OF 45 Devers 3B 22 Bogaerts SS 21 Vazquez C 17 Dalbec 1B/3B 8.9 Hernandez RP 7.6 Rodriguez SP 7.5 Chavis 1B/2B 5.3 Benintendi OF 3.6 Arroyo 2B 3.3 Pivetta SP 2.9 Brasier RP 2.1 Arauz 2B
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I can't blame you for being optimistic. You have a lot to be encouraged about, but until you replace DJ, Tanaka, Paxton & Happ and find a catcher, it's hard to know just who the Yanks will be. Cole is solid, but Severino may not be back until July and may need time to return to form. Montgomery, Garcia, King and German all show serious skills or promise, but questions still remain. The pen is solid. I'm certain the Yanks will not stand pat, and if they lose out on DJ, they will find someone else. Let's see who replaces Tanaka. Returning players from injuries are always hard to gauge.
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I think the Jays and White Sox, and maybe even the Twins may add a few pieces and pass the Yanks, if they stand pat. I never count out the Rays, either. The Astros and A's need additions.
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I guess all AL teams have open slots- some to be filled, this winter. The Yanks without DJ, Tanaka, Paxton and others is not much different from many teams. Several teams, including the Sox & Yanks, have proven players returning from injuries. I guess what team's fan you are has a lot to do with the optimism of projected productivities of these returning players.
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I suggested a 3 way trade with Philly & Pitt. Philly gets Vaz, Pitt gets Abel from PHI and maybe Wong, Ward or Groome from us, and we get Taillon & Stallings © from Pitt.
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They are better, on paper, even before any additions. Do you think the Yanks are top 3 or 4, as is?
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I'd like to see us add 5-7 solid players, this winter or by the deadline, but we have to add at least 4: 1A. Closer 1B. SP'er (preferably a durable #2-#3 type) 3. Solid set-up RP'er 4. CF/2B (maybe Hernandez) Maybe we sign 3 and trade for 1. Ideally, we'd add: 1. #2 SP'er 2. Solid closer 3. Solid RP'er 4. CF who is plus defense 5. 2B 6. SP'er depth 7. RP'er depth
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The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5. They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions. Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.
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It sure is. I could be wrong, but I think fWAR values innings pitched, even if they are not pitched all that well, more than they should be. I also think they rely on FIP too much. notin probably knows more about this than I do.
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I'm dying for some action!
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ERA is highly dependent on team defense, park configuration and strength of opponent's offense. Even ERA+ or ERA- are flawed, but they are better than just plain ole ERA. I'm not a big fan of FIP. I value ERA-, WHIP and OPS against more than ERA or FIP.
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Agreed. I would not bet against him getting 180+ IP in 2021. He's a horse. The problem is, he's not very good anymore.
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2388 Verlander 2301 Scherzer 2280 Greinke 2244 Lester 2225 Kershaw 2155 C Hamels 2096 Porcello 2063 Felix H 2061 Shields 2015 Price
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Lester and Porcello have almost identical IP, but at their ages, I'd think Porcello rates to pitch more innings in 2021 and 2022. One could argue with all Porcello's IP over his career, he's due for a break down. Not many SP'ers log 170 MLB IP at age 20 and never dip below 163 their whole careers. He was over 172 IP for 9 straight years before 2020, where he was on pace for close to 172.
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If you go by what Morton & McCann got, you'd think they would, but this is indeed a strange off season.
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bWAR last 4 yrs (2020, 2019...) Porcello: 0.1, 1.2, 3.0, -0.2= 4.5 J Lester: -0.2, 1.4, 3.0, 0.6= 4.8 fWAR 2019-2020 (both had 233 IP) 3.4 Porcello 3.0 Lester 2018-2020 5.9 Porcello (425 IP) 5.0 Lester (414 IP) 2017-2020 7.9 Lester (595 IP) 7.9 Porcello (628 IP) With Porcello being significantly younger, it looks like he'd be the better deal. I'm not so sure.
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Tanaka K's 8.5 (8.3 in 2020) and walks just 1.8 (1.5 in 2020). He had started 27-31 games for 4 straight years before starting 10 in 2020.
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Another advantage might be to start a lefty for 1-2 innings, then bring in a righty for 3-5 innings- or vice versa.
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Tanaka is the closest. We need durability, right now. We also need someone who is good. It would be nice, if it was the same guy, but those type are very costly.
