moonslav59

You're right, the team we had on paper should not have produced that poor of a record. I did not expect a bad season, last year. Calling it "the cliff" was wrong, but it was t5he beginning of the down slide brought on by our inability to keep or replace Kimbrel, Kelly, Nunez and Pom. What caused that "inability?" It was the trading away of too many cost-controlled young players/prospects and the over-reliance of moderate to big ticket free agent signings. This created the writing on the wall that many here denied was there. Maybe the term "cliff" was and is hyperbole, and I often said I didn't think we'd ever get real bad as long as we kept spending just under the tax line, but the downturn is real and it is now. It wasn't a weak argument, then and it isn't now either. The system has changed to make it harder to spend your way to greatness, in fact it hampers high spending teams. Fans can keep saying, "Henry can spend enough to get us what we need," but the fact is is won't forever. Our history was to spend big, at times, go over the line, here and there, but we always had times where we lowered spending. It wasn't a weak argument to predict we'd do that again, especially after spending more than we ever did, only to see us miss the playoffs by a pretty wide margin. The rebuild is here. We will try to be somewhat competitive, this year, so I'm fine with saying this is not a cliff, and we were wrong using that term, but the reality is we just traded Betts and Price for pre-arb players and prospects. Call it whatever you want, but at least admit some of anti-cliff people got it horribly wrong, too.

Thanks. Maybe losing Betts hasn't really sunk in, yet. My optimism is tinged with sadness and a feeling of great loss.

I'm no expert on prospects, especially those from other teams like the Dodgers, but here is my top Sox prospects list (open for adjustment): 1. Downs 2. Casas 3. Mata 4. Jimenez 5. Dalbec 6. Ward 7. Groome 8. Lugo 9. A Ramirez 10. Wong 11. Duran 12. Chatham 13. Houck 14. Zeferjahn 15. Wilson

I hear you. I'm a big Cora fan, and even called him our greatest manager ever. What's not to love about watching Betts every game possible. It sucks it came to this. I still want him back. I've suggested offers that are higher than almost anyone else on this site. Our budget will be set up as to allow us to sign him, if that's what we Bloom & Henry really want, so I'm feeling optimistic about our future. As for 2020, maybe I vastly underestimated our chances at winning a ring or giving us an exciting run at one, but to me, we'd have had to spend a boatload of money this winter to gives us decent odds at winning it all. We'd have come up short and been left with horrible draft picks, a huge tax bill and little chance at seeing a quick rebuild afterwards. Just my take.

We have enough budget space for some bridge players needed to fill some gaps.

I said much better chance, not that I "know" we'll be better in 2021. The idea is to try to be, and this was an attempt to do so. I'll still enjoy 2020. I may even enjoy it more knowing the future is not as bleak as it was before the trade. It would really suck watching us repeat 2019 knowing we'll get nothing for Betts and staring at having to reset in 2021. That would have been a fun summer!

I doubt we trade prospects for a SP'er, unless the guy has 3+ years of team control (hopefully 4+ at pre-arb or arb costs). What's the best starter we could get for JBJ and Workman? Matz?

I would not hold my breath. An easier way might be to just hire people who have proven they know how to do it. Maybe Bloom has a friend or two he can hire.

A closer look at who we got: Conner Wong: turns 24 in May. Was promoted to AA, last year and did very well (.997). In just over 1,000 PAs in the minors, he has 48 Hrs and an .852 OPS. Jeter Downs: is 21 and also made it to AA, last year (for a short time 1.116 OPS) He hit 24 HRs, last year in just 460 ABs. (63 XBHs) He laos has 69 SBs in 289 games in the minors. Alex Verdugo: also not yet 24. He's played part of 3 seasons in the bigs, but has only 488 PAs total (.784 OPS, but .817 in 2019 in 377 PAs). Bats lefty. He hit .844 in AAA (874 PAs). He hasn't shown great power, but he seems to be adding a little to his game (12 in 343 ABs in 2019 MLB/ 10 in 343 ABs at AAA in 2018) We lost a great one in Betts, but he only had one year of control left. Price will turn 35 in August. He's averaged about 117 IP the last 3 years, but his 3.75 ERA over that time will be very hard to replace. My guess is we would not have gotten 3.75 from him over the next 3 years, but he might.

Wong might be our JD replacement at DH with the 3rd catcher value helping us PH for our catchers more often. I don't think we trade Downs. We'll just get him to change his name. This trade is really about Verdugo, despite what Law says. He could have a bust out year as soon as 2020. He might disappoint, but getting Downs and Wong and big salary relief hedges that bet.

My guess is, we look for short term bridge players for 2020 without going over the tax line, but more importantly, we try to look look for a bargain or two that will be more useful in 2021 and beyond.

He hits like a pitcher vs lefties.

LOL. Henry is the greatest thing that ever happened to the Sox. If this is ripping us off, I shutter to think what they were doing to us for decades beforehand. No way should any owner pay Betts $60+M a year after taxes, whether they can afford it or not. 2019 was part of the cliff, and so will 2020. I'm hopeful we kept it to just 2 years.

Everybody knew we were going to reset. It was no secret to any GM. I doubt we get even $1M saved on Prices contract had Henry said the opposite way back when. The minute Bloom calls LA and offers Betts and Price, the cat is out of the bag.

Well, they tried to, so the objective might still be to play it both ways by dealing for a SP'er or two, now. I'd prefer we just focus on 2021 and beyond, but I'll still enjoy watching Devers, Bogey, Sale and others, this year.

Good analysis, but I think we were likely toast in 2020, even with Betts & Price. I agree, we are likely not done, but I think any deal we make for a starter should be more about 2021 and well beyond than 2020. While Verdugo is a "now player," he's still got 2 pre-arb years left and has 5 years of team control.

We have a much better chance of winning in 2021 and 2022 than before the trade, but if that idea is too hard for you to comprehend, then you'll just have to wait it out and cry about 2020.

Ugly! He's got one year of control. He's a platoon player.

I love all the guys who said money didn't matter and the cliff was a joke.

Who knew there were so many fans who care only about watching one guy play for one losing season at the expense of several years of winning, afterwards?

I'm saying it might not have mattered by as much as some think it did. I think the hype around this type of situation is overblown. I think we got more for Betts than I expected before Henry's statement. 5 years or Verdugu, 5+ years of Downs and Wong plus $15 off the lux tax in 2021 and 2022. Price was iffy over the last few years. He came through, when we needed him, and I'll always be thankful for that, but the last 3 years of his deal were always expected to be below value, even if he'd done well up to now. We did well. If all this about Henry was true, then since we are now below the tax line, we should be able to trade JBJ, Eovaldi and others as there is no longer any pressure or feeling that other teams know we have to dump them, right? (Nope.)

We can disagree on Price's value, but $15M is not far from $12M. I hope we can find some fine pitching, and it need not be for 2020, IMO.

I was hoping for Gonsolin or Gray, but the two we got are better. We still need pitching, but we just gave a huge boost to our farm and extended future. Verdugo still has 2 pre-arb years! Welcome to Boston, Mr. Bloom!

Plus, we dumped Price! I thought he was worth $12M a year, and we got LA to pay $16M a year. It's like we got Verdugo, Downs, Wong and $4M.

It didn't help that Henry said what he said, but I doubt it made much of a difference. The writing was on the wall. We obviously were not out to compete in 2020. We let Porcello go and signed only scrubs. I think Bloom knew what he was getting into and will have a chance to shine after we reset.