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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Ward should be higher than Chatham, too and probably #7 or 8. Without a true position, it's hard to value Wong.
  2. moonslav59
    Yes, and some context. Not too long before, Pedey signed a "hometown discount" deal, and Lester had expressed a willingness to accept a hometown discount deal. The worst part about the offer was that we did not quickly follow it up with a better offer. Okay, we offer Betts $300M/10, and he says he wants $420M/10. How can it hurt to counteroffer $330/10 or $350/10 and see what he says? Maybe he counters $390/10 or $420/12. Now, we may feel like we can come to an agreement. Now, if we think $330/10 is the most we'll ever pay, then I can see why we could decide to trade him.
  3. moonslav59
    What would a package of JBJ, Chavis & Duran get us, in terms of a SP'er who may be getting paid much more than JBJ, and the team wants to cut budget? Or, just JBJ and Chavis, since we may need OF depth after trading JBJ? This is assuming a try to be more competitive for 2020. Assuming a look at 2021 and beyond... What could we get for this? JBJ & Workman? JBJ, Workman & Chavis?
  4. moonslav59
    Song can't play for a while. Plawecki is probably over-valued, but it's hard to place value of catcher defense and handling of the staff- just like Leon.
  5. moonslav59
    Betts has power, too, and many players add power as they get into their mid to late 30's. Plus, my offer is not about getting value from him at ages 38-40. It's about lowering the AVV and front end loading it drastically allows us to trade him and save tens of millions on the lux tax budget.
  6. moonslav59
    For what it's worth here are the trade values for Sox players on the website, remember value includes salary and years of control as big factors: (Highlighted in red means I think the number is higher than actual value.) 128 Devers 89 Bogey 48 Verdugo 39 Beni 29 ERod 26 Vaz 22 Casas 22 Downs 20 Dalbec 18 Chavis 12 Mata 12 Barnes 12 Duran 11 D Hernandez 9 Jimenez 6 Lugo, JD, Taylor, Walden 5 Workman, Chatham, Ward 4 Wong, Song, Groome 3 Murphy, Perez, Decker, Houck, Plawecki, Gonzalez 2 Bonaci, Cannon, Howlett, Wilson, Arauz, Flores 1 Lopez, Chacon, Esplin, Feliz, Marcano, Rafaeta, Vaughan, Lin, Bello, Netzer, peraza, Politi, Brannen, Northcut, Zeferjahn, Diaz, Hart, Liu, Aybar, Castellanos, Crawford, Ockimey, Perales, Poyner, Ramirez 0.0 to 0.5 Hall, Reyez, Baldwin, Feltman, Moreland, JBJ, Shawarn and more -9.8 Sale -14.3 Castillo (his pay) -24.8 Pedey -29.0 Eovaldi (owed $41M)
  7. moonslav59
    Ok, maybe he's not worth $20M at ages 38-40. You could scale it so he's at $10M a year by then, and if he's not worth it, trade him and pay all $10M, and it still saves us $22M on the lux tax line. (The lux tax line goes to the new team, and all that counts for us is what we pay them.)
  8. moonslav59
    I see it this way, in real dollar value to a team like Boston, betts might be worth this much at these ages: (BTW, the trade value site had him worth 50 which is counting the $27M he makes, this year.) 28: $55M 29: $50M 30: $45M 31: $40M 32: $35M 33: $35M 34: $30M 35: $25M 36: $25M 37: $20M 38: $20M 39: $15M 40: $15M That's $420M/13. Maybe $15M will be an overpay, but $40M at age 31 might be an underpay.
  9. moonslav59
    1) You're wrong on the numbers: $420M/12 is not $35M a year. 2) I said front end load it, so by year 9-11, he's making only $20M a year and could possibly trade him, then. 3) He might be pretty dam good at ages 38-41.
  10. moonslav59
    If that were true, he'd never have gone over the tax line and certainly not the $40M line. He's a winner like no other owner we've had in my lifetime. I just don't understand all the criticism he gets over deciding he'll spend less here and there. BTW, even when he spends less, we're almost always a top 3-5 spender. What's the beef?
  11. moonslav59
    The first taxes began in 1997. 1997 No tax 1998 $2.2M 1999 $.02M 2000 No tax 2001 No tax 2002 No tax Henry era begins 2004 $3.2M 2005 $4.2M 2006 $497K 2007 $6.1M 2008 No 2009 No 2010 $1.5M 2011 $3.4M 2012 No (last place) 2013 No 2014 No (last place) 2015 $1.8M (last place) 2016 $4.5M 2017 No 2018 $9.4M 2019 $9.4M There is no reason to think this sort of pattern won't continue.
  12. moonslav59
    The Sox have a long history, since Henry took over, of spending very big, then resetting or spending less for just 1-2 years, then returning to biggest or 2nd biggest spender status. We may not make anymore signings like Price for a while, but I think we go back over the tax line as early as 2021. We may never go over the $40M line again.
  13. moonslav59
    I bet he'd sign $420M/13 ($32.2 AVV). The guy might actually play 13 more years at a decent level, if not we still paid him the same amount.
  14. moonslav59
    $11-12M is very significant, even as prices and tax lines keep going up.
  15. moonslav59
    I'm thinking $400/12 or 420/13 with an AVV of $30.3 or $30.2M. It might suck years 11 to 12 or 13, but if we front end load the deal, we could probably trade him those years, if the lux tax is still around and a serious issue. He's not taking $300M/10. I think the minimum he gets, barring an injury or serious 2020 decline is $350M/10.
  16. moonslav59
    We should have made a longer term deal with JBJ rather than pay $11M for 1 year. Maybe we tried. We probably knew we'd get under the lux line, so paying $11M would not be taxed, but it was always my belief that when we did not non tender him, we had a deal in place. He's been my favorite Sox fan since before he was even called up, and that wasn't easy at times, and I'd love to have him longer term but not at anywhere near $11M a year.
  17. moonslav59
    And those moves may not involve or indirectly involve trading JBJ.I'd be fine with that, but I'm thinking there is not much of a step down from JBJ to Pillar, and $9-11M can help us get a pitcher or a much better pitcher than we could with his $11M on the books. If Bloom can work his magic and get us a very good pitcher, leave some cap space and still keep JBJ, I'm fine with that.
  18. moonslav59
    There are questions about her being 15, but she was certainly 16 when Clemens took her on unaccompanied vacations. I am almost 100% certain Roger did NOT wait 2+ years to get intimate with her. I'm all for believing the woman, but when she really liked Roger,felt is was consenual, and he was paying her large sums of money, one can understand her not being fully forthright. Clemens clearly took advantage of her naivety and her vulnerable/fragile circumstances. She ended up getting hooked on drugs (maybe using some of Roger's money to buy them) and ultimately committed suicide years later. She was obviously a troubled girl from the start, and the community down here in Sugar Land pretty much all agree that he is a scumbag and did much worse than what came out. I know you can't believe rumors, but there is just too much evidence for me to think nothing happened until she was 18.
  19. moonslav59
    IDK, can we get a decent pitcher for him? (Maybe one paid more than he is?) Can we work out a deal with someone to take his whole salary or $9M of it, and then trade someone else that is not part of our future plans for a good pitcher who is somewhat of a salary dump to another team and that will leave us some room on the lux tax budget to make a deadline more or two, if we are in the hunt? I'm not sure.
  20. moonslav59
    Yes, I know. I've seen much worse names than "clown" go unnoticed. I will try to refrain from returning personal insults going forward.
  21. moonslav59
    I assumed it before this new assumption, but that's just me. I am not for trading JBJ unless he brings us a decent pitcher OR the salary relief allows us to acquire a better than decent pitcher.
  22. moonslav59
    He'll most likely be mostly platooned, but I am also hopeful we can get an OF'er from within our system. It was looking pretty bleak for a while. I'm not that high on Duran. I know his speed helped pad his ridiculously high BAbip, but I'm not sure he can maintain a high BA & OBP as he rises up in the minors.
  23. moonslav59
    "Clown" was being gentle.
  24. moonslav59
    Matz is a gamble, but he's made 60 starts the last 2 years, and we are not going to get an ace from anybody- or even a #2.
  25. moonslav59
    Sex with a 16 year old is never legally "consenual." It was rape-rape-RAPE. There is no evidence that Verudgo assaulted that woman. It's a badge of honor to be called an idiot by you. You are not only wrong on every position- you are polar opposite from the truth on the spectrum.
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