moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5. They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions. Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.
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It sure is. I could be wrong, but I think fWAR values innings pitched, even if they are not pitched all that well, more than they should be. I also think they rely on FIP too much. notin probably knows more about this than I do.
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I'm dying for some action!
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ERA is highly dependent on team defense, park configuration and strength of opponent's offense. Even ERA+ or ERA- are flawed, but they are better than just plain ole ERA. I'm not a big fan of FIP. I value ERA-, WHIP and OPS against more than ERA or FIP.
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Agreed. I would not bet against him getting 180+ IP in 2021. He's a horse. The problem is, he's not very good anymore.
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2388 Verlander 2301 Scherzer 2280 Greinke 2244 Lester 2225 Kershaw 2155 C Hamels 2096 Porcello 2063 Felix H 2061 Shields 2015 Price
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Lester and Porcello have almost identical IP, but at their ages, I'd think Porcello rates to pitch more innings in 2021 and 2022. One could argue with all Porcello's IP over his career, he's due for a break down. Not many SP'ers log 170 MLB IP at age 20 and never dip below 163 their whole careers. He was over 172 IP for 9 straight years before 2020, where he was on pace for close to 172.
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If you go by what Morton & McCann got, you'd think they would, but this is indeed a strange off season.
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bWAR last 4 yrs (2020, 2019...) Porcello: 0.1, 1.2, 3.0, -0.2= 4.5 J Lester: -0.2, 1.4, 3.0, 0.6= 4.8 fWAR 2019-2020 (both had 233 IP) 3.4 Porcello 3.0 Lester 2018-2020 5.9 Porcello (425 IP) 5.0 Lester (414 IP) 2017-2020 7.9 Lester (595 IP) 7.9 Porcello (628 IP) With Porcello being significantly younger, it looks like he'd be the better deal. I'm not so sure.
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Tanaka K's 8.5 (8.3 in 2020) and walks just 1.8 (1.5 in 2020). He had started 27-31 games for 4 straight years before starting 10 in 2020.
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Another advantage might be to start a lefty for 1-2 innings, then bring in a righty for 3-5 innings- or vice versa.
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Tanaka is the closest. We need durability, right now. We also need someone who is good. It would be nice, if it was the same guy, but those type are very costly.
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Who would you rather sign, this winter? $18M/2 Porcello $18M/2 Lester
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Had we signed him to 5 years, it would have been for something like $15-17M more. 2 more years- maybe $13-16M more per extra year. 3 more years- maybe $12-15M more per extra year. As pitcher's age, their pay usually is lowered.
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So, a $125M/7 year deal vs the $82M/4 he got would have amounted to giving him $43M for his last 3 years ($14.3M a year x 3 years). Once again, do you wish we had done that over the $82.5M/4 extension we signed him to?
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Makes sense to me, so it probably won't happen.
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Thanks, I went back and added a few of the big extensions in blue. Check it out.
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I guess some think we should have signed him to 5 or more years.
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I'm not getting your point.
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The Yanks are clearly going all out, this winter! We are doomed!
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Are you for signing Jon Lester to $27M/2 (no adjustment made for inflation due to the COVID affect)? He's the same age Dempster was, when we signed him, and he has had many more seasons over a 2.2 bWAR than Dempster had (9 to 5).
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Yes, and he proved he was barely worth $20M per year in prime, and most of that was fueled by one monster year. Would you have rather signed him for $125M/7 or $80M/4?
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Okay, he was a 3 starter. Look, he was post prime. Expecting him to have a WAR of 2.6, because he had done it from 2008 to 2012. The guy was 36 years old. Two years at $13M each was a lot of cash for a player way past prime who only had a bWAR, yes "B" WAR, of over 2.2 four times from 2001 to 2012 (12 years!). He did okay for us in 2013, but it's not the type of signing I like.
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Your combination of seasons 19 & 20 includes the 2019 season in prime. It does nothing for or against my point.
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Yes, I hated the signing. My philosophy is that the best way to build a winning rotation is by rebuilding from the top (#1 or #2 pitchers not #4 and #5's). That does not mean some signings of 4 and 5 starters don't ever work out. We were lucky he retired. I don't recall anyone thinking they wish he didn't. Also, I'm often wrong.
