Back on that old website, I once started a thread about the Rays, in response to an annoying poster who kept claiming they "wilt in the dog days of summer."
They never did.
Here we are, again. After trading away Snell, and a key injuries to Yonny Chirinos (4th starter) and Nick Anderson (closer), many felt the Rays would be lucky to finish over .500 in 2021, let alone compete for a playoff slot, yet here we are. They also traded away their starting SS a few weeks ago, Wlly Adames.
It can't be smoke and mirrors, since these guys do it nearly every year. They play solid defense, run the bases well, and do all the things stats don't capture very well. They have a strong manager, coaching staff and GM. They develop young pitchers very well, and seem to have a knack for knowing just the right time to trade some of their best players right before the decline or even fall off the face of the earth. They also seem to know who to acquire right before they go on to have career years or resurgences.
If you look at the traditional ways we look at player stats, you'll see they have a deep and solid pen, this year, and their starters have done very well. Their hitting does not look all that great, but the whole league is in a funk over this new ball crap.
Here's a look at the Rays' numbers:
OPS (in order of most PAs, this season and 85+):
.778 Arozarena
.836 Meadows
.697 B Lowe
.686 Y Diaz
.662 Margot
.894 Wendle
.625 WAdams (traded)
.851 Zunino
.642 Phillips
.593 Brousseau
.545 Kiermaier
.750 Mejia
.462 Tsutsugo
As you can see, there is nothing here that looks like a first place team. 3 guys over .800 and just 2 others over .700. They don't have as many sub .600 players as some other teams, but nothing jumps out here.
Now, the pitching, which does look like a first place team's numbers:
(Listed by most IP and 10+ IP) ERA- Pitcher- WHIP
2.57 Glasnow 0.929
4.26 Yarrough 1.211
3.63 Rich Hill 1.019
2.88 Fleming 1.057
4.59 M Wacha 1.200
3.29 McClanahan 1.134
3.47 J Springs 1.029
2.31 Thompson 1.029
1.17 Kittredge 0.826
3.20 D Castillo 1.119
1.69 Stickland 1.250
4.02 C McHugh 1.404
3.60 L Patino 1.067 (10 day IL)
4.50 T Richards 1.000
8.49 C Mazza 1.714
(Cady Reed, Chris Archer, Caz Roe are on the 60 day IL with Chirionos)
Team numbers and rankings:
Offense
Runs: 264 (4th) BOS is 2nd with 267
OBP: .318 (10th) BOS is 7th at .321
SLG: .398 (13th) BOS is first at .447
OPS: .717 (12th) BOS is first at .769
Fielding:
DEF (fangraphs): 2.1 (11th) BOS is 15h at -0.1)
UZR/150: 4.7 (9th) BOS is 7th at 5.2
DRS: 28 (2nd in MLB) BOS is 20th at +3.
Pitching:
WAR: 5.5 (10th) BOS is 4th at 8.0
ERA-: 88 (7th) BOS is 8th at 90
xFIP-: 92 (7th) BOS is 10th at 95
WHIP: 1.12 (4th) BOS is 20th at 1.32
Saves: 16 (8 BS) tied with BOS at 4th. BOS has 7 BS
All-in-all, it looks like the Rays are here to stay. How much depth do they have? Can they handle another major injury?
We will be facing them, soon, and we better bring our A game.